Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead up from 56-44 to 57-43, from primary votes of 27 per cent for Labor (down two), 47 per cent for the Coalition (steady) and a solid 14 per cent for the Greens (up two). Taken together with personal ratings, the figures point to a still worsening disaffection with both options. After a slight recovery last time, Julia Gillard is back in the doghouse with 29 per cent approval (down four) and 61 per cent disapproval (down three), but Tony Abbott is also down three on approval to 36 per cent and up three on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott has maintained his one point lead as preferred prime minister, with both down a point to 39 per cent and 38 per cent.

Today’s Essential Research had Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.

In further poll news, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald related yesterday that a JWS Research automated phone poll had the Liberals leading 60-40 in beleagured Labor MP Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. The Weekend Australian also had Newspoll results on a range of issues to do with health policy, from which GhostWhoVotes presents the tables here, here, here and here.

UPDATE: Tasmanian gentleman psephologist Kevin Bonham offers the following historical context in comments:

OK so we have Gillard net sat -32 Abbott net sat -19. I did my bit by giving them both negatives.

The combined net sat of -51 for both leaders is now their worst and the =30th worst on record. The 29 worst readings are:

* Two Hawke-Peacocks from just before the 1990 election
* Four Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Twenty Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* Three Keating-Downers

The record is -76 by Keating-Hewson in Sep 1993.

The “best” net sat of -19 is their worst and the =22nd worst on record. The 21 worst readings are:

* One Hawke-Peacock
* Six Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Thirteen Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* One Keating-Downer

The record is -30 by Keating-Hewson in June 1993

There are only eight cases on record of the PM having a net sat of -32 or worse and a LOpp having a net sat of -19 or worse. These were all Keating-Hewsons (two before the election and six after).

Howard’s worst net sat in his successful term as Leader of the Opposition was -12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,188 thoughts on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  5. Slinger Malinga has just taken hat-trick against Aussies in Colombo:

    From Cricinfo

    “45.4
    Malinga to Doherty, OUT, hat-trick for Malinga, another of those laser-guided low full tosses, Xavier Doherty has no chance, the middle stump is rattled, and Australia are down to 211 for 9, so much for the Powerplay

    XJ Doherty b Malinga 0 (1b 0x4 0x6) SR: 0.00

    The Colombo crowd is buzzing”

  9. Minchin says it’s “not the right time” to bring in a Carbon Tax.

    He doesn’t believe in climate change so you can’t even discuss the issue with him.

  10. This Newspoll is disappointing.

    Mr Abbott is succeeding in doing interpersonal MAD with Ms Gillard.

    It looks as if the public may have switched off to anything else.

  11. Do any Labor leaning posters actually have any proof of media bias?

    Personally I think many of you just don’t like the media scrutinising the Govt. I think it’s also easier to blame the media than to critically assess the merits of policy initiatives or the govts attempts at selling these policies.

    I can remember myself getting rilled up by ‘bias’ from the ABC about the Howard Govt and unfavourable news reports but this happens of every single government in history. It’s nothing new. It’s not a conspiracy.

    I think there are credible reasons beyond a fictional media bias that explain Labor’s poll woes.

    Mr Thomson’s inability to explain the fiasco regarding his Credit Card bills sucked all the oxygen out of Labor’s attacks re: $70b and hampered their ability to sell its policies.

    Labor’s inability to sell a decent policy or stick to a consistent message and Gillard’s leadership are all reasons why Labor only has a PV of 27%

  12. @Boerwar,

    Why are you saying this ?

    Mr Abbott isn’t doing ANYTHING, the new poll reflects this, Coalition hasn’t been gaining as much as it has been since it has hit the 57/58 mark, and now the polls are flattening.

  13. 32% from Essential. 27% from Newspoll

    At least the 2PP has stabilized a bit.

    The ALP need some clear airspace. Thomson didn’t help

  16. there is a difference between valid criticism and blatant bias.

    So you have proof of bias in things other than editorials which offer an opinion?

  19. Tim Lambert at Deltoid has collected an entire series (still ongoing) of bias in the reporting of AGW and climate science at the Australian.

  20. Mr Abbott is succeeding in doing interpersonal MAD with Ms Gillard.

    It looks as if the public may have switched off to anything else.

    That’s what happens when his constant negativity/perpetual election campaigning style gets acclaimed as good politics.

  23. Houston we have peak abbott. However ALP has yet to find the bottom of the trough. It looks like all the voters that could swing to the libs have, now fall will continue with whats left of the ALP voters going across to the greens for a safe vote. It really has been a mess of a week for Gillard after two good weeks.

  25. Mr Sparrow, do you recall the word “hubris” that youwere so fond of… oh…, about four years ago?

    I suppose you’ll also recall I have never said Abbott will without doubt win the next election. I’m not counting my chickens yet. We have a long way to go.

    Please don’t confuse Glee with Hubris.

    Gussy

    Just wait. We’ve been waiting a long time and 0 evidence. But it makes ya’ll feel better about Labor’s situation if you can blame their poor polling on things out of control than to admit they’re part of the problem.

  27. Newspoll July 12 was TPP 58-42. Labor 27, Colaition 49.

    So in the roller coaster of the last month Coalition down 2 and Labor back to where they were.

  30. So you have proof of bias in things other than editorials which offer an opinion?

    Two questions that can be asked:
    Does the heading of a report reflect the substance of the report? Does the report contain a full coverage of the substantive points presented by both sides or are only a subset of the points made by one side included in the report to the exclusion of others?

  31. So you have proof of bias in things other than editorials which offer an opinion?

    Right wing projection. “Provide specific evidence right now or you’re wrong”. What, you want me to link some articles to “prove bias”?

  38. I suppose you’ll also recall I have never said Abbott will without doubt win the next election. I’m not counting my chickens yet. We have a long way to go.

    Please don’t confuse Glee with Hubris.

    Glen,

    You want Abbott to be PM?

  41. Do any Labor leaning posters actually have any proof of media bias?

    As I’m sure you know, Glen, the problem is you can’t point to any one report and say “that’s biased” – we can point out many individual cases of journalists producing copy which is incorrect or out of context in ways that are negative for the government. That doesn’t prove bias.

    The ABC was never able to prove they weren’t biased. As a result they were effectively forced into their ‘balance at all costs’ position that it maintains – equal time, equal words, equal articles, it doesn’t matter how absurd one side’s position is it gets equal treatment otherwise they can be accused of lack-of-balance.

    That accounting approach to bias doesn’t work.

    The only way to seriously assess bias would be to have that mythical unbiased 3rd party observer analyze the body of work of a media organization over a period of time and ‘grade’ every article. That obviously never happens.

    As such it IS the case that many accusations of bias here (including my own) are based on subjective feeling of systematic choices to emphasize faults on the ALP side and gloss over faults on the conservative side, for example. Of course there is confirmation bias in our own observations.

    The fact we can’t prove it also doesn’t mean it isn’t true…

    In that sense I know I have tried to focus on critiquing the quality of journalism rather than necessarily its bias – to my mind a systematic commitment to quality journalism would largely abrogate any need to assess bias. Provided that journalists produce accurate stories with sufficient context, and do so across the spectrum of topics without fear or favour, then I would be ok with that.

    That’s certainly not what I see journalists, as a rule, doing in their day-to-day work at the moment, with some rare and therefore notable exceptions.

  47. GS

    Of course the reasons for the polling are multivariate. Hideously low quality journalism, openly-biased editorial approaches, and unprofessional commentariats should, but will never, take their share of responsibility for the current state of affairs. The exceptions to the rule of mediocracy, incompetence and outright bias amongst MSM professionals are few and far between.

    Let’s take today.

    The MSM has tried Mr Thomson, found him guilty, and is working on the sentence. There is no presumption of innocence.

    Have a look at the way Spiers tried to explain away today’s convoy fiasco. He could not bring himself to say that it was a cock up.

    Have a look at the complete absence of any in-depth analysis in the MSM of either the Tea Party tactics or the bizarre set of international conspiracy nutters (starting with Mr Patel) who were claiming to be representative of Australian people. Why not? Surely it is at the heart of the issue that Mr Abbott and the organisers were claiming just that? Shouldn’t this false presumption by Mr Abbott be exposed? Isn’t he using this false presumption to try and undermine our democratically-elected Government?

    Only a single journalist has so far published what must surely be one of the most bizarre and unpleasant events in Australian political history – two senior members of the Shadow Cabinet behaving like nasty little school boys towards the Prime Minister. These petty spivs have some pretensions to running our education system and our economy. Why hasn’t their behaviour received national coverage in all the MSM?

    Mr Abbott has uttered several hundred straight out lies of fact about the Government’s policies in relation to AGW. Where has this systemic and deliberate policy of lying been exposed in a significant way by the MSM? Why not? Isn’t Mr Abbott’s major criticism of Ms Gillard that she told just one lie? Why does the MSM endlessly parrot or replay Mr Abbott’s criticism of Ms Gillard’s lie without exposing the systemic hypocritical lying by Mr Abbott?

    I could go on but you would know as well as I do that the MSM has not done its job in this country.

    IMHO, Government polling figures are merely collateral damage. Governments will come and go. But the real and substantial damage is to our democracy being caused by the MSM deficiencies.

  48. i mean who’d thunk the NOTW scandal could have happened

    I think the question is not whether who would have thought that the NOTW scandal could have happened but rather who would have thought that it would be revealed. In the UK it was revealed because of the greater media ownership diversity that exists there. There is no equivalent of The Guardian or The Independant in Australia. In Australia it is basically Murdoch and Fairfax and it seems to me that there is a tacit agreement between the two groups that they will not investigate each other. It will be interesting to see if Ita Buttrose’s statement re Murdoch telling her to have someone followed will lead anywhere.

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