Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead up from 56-44 to 57-43, from primary votes of 27 per cent for Labor (down two), 47 per cent for the Coalition (steady) and a solid 14 per cent for the Greens (up two). Taken together with personal ratings, the figures point to a still worsening disaffection with both options. After a slight recovery last time, Julia Gillard is back in the doghouse with 29 per cent approval (down four) and 61 per cent disapproval (down three), but Tony Abbott is also down three on approval to 36 per cent and up three on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott has maintained his one point lead as preferred prime minister, with both down a point to 39 per cent and 38 per cent.

Today’s Essential Research had Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.

In further poll news, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald related yesterday that a JWS Research automated phone poll had the Liberals leading 60-40 in beleagured Labor MP Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. The Weekend Australian also had Newspoll results on a range of issues to do with health policy, from which GhostWhoVotes presents the tables here, here, here and here.

UPDATE: Tasmanian gentleman psephologist Kevin Bonham offers the following historical context in comments:

OK so we have Gillard net sat -32 Abbott net sat -19. I did my bit by giving them both negatives.

The combined net sat of -51 for both leaders is now their worst and the =30th worst on record. The 29 worst readings are:

* Two Hawke-Peacocks from just before the 1990 election
* Four Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Twenty Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* Three Keating-Downers

The record is -76 by Keating-Hewson in Sep 1993.

The “best” net sat of -19 is their worst and the =22nd worst on record. The 21 worst readings are:

* One Hawke-Peacock
* Six Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Thirteen Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* One Keating-Downer

The record is -30 by Keating-Hewson in June 1993

There are only eight cases on record of the PM having a net sat of -32 or worse and a LOpp having a net sat of -19 or worse. These were all Keating-Hewsons (two before the election and six after).

Howard’s worst net sat in his successful term as Leader of the Opposition was -12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,188 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. JV

    [whereas a proper long-handled shovel is used for digging serious holes]
    Yep.When digging fence post holes for stainers it was spade to start but shovel when it got deep. Spades were still used going deep though to a) Tidy the hole shape and b) break up the compacted earth at the bottom of the hole , then shovel to remove dirt. Ah how I do not miss digging fence post holes in clay soils.

  3. Boerwar

    Agreed. Turnbull was unable to attend his friend’s funeral this week, but Brandis was able to attend. When is Turnbull going to grow a spine. Especially as he wants an ETS

  5. BB, I have just watched the Jay Rosen and Tony Jones interview, Jones comes across as a shallow one trick pony.

    I felt embarrassed at his pathetic attempts to justify things like ignoring the known facts in presenting a story as though it was a virtue.

  6. [On Faine this morning, Stuart littlemore was a guest in conversation hour promoting his novel.]

    Gorgeous Dunny, I was only able to hear snippets of this while in the car (passengers were trying to have a conversation with me, bloody rude bastards!) but was there a point where he said wtte “some abc journalists seem to be auditioning for a job on channel 9”?

  8. DavidWH @5094,

    Enjoy reading your point of view on issues but on this one I perhaps think one should be a bit more cautious before assuming Jackson’s purity of intention.

    Methinks there is a possibility she protests a bit too loud and her profile over the last few days may have more to do with preemptive defence than anything else.

    cheers.

  9. I’m seeing a number of assertions that Matthew Franklin was personally responsible for The Oz’s misquoting of Rob Oakeshott yesterday, and I’m not sure why. Surely it was the work of whichever professional shithead is responsible for the paper’s Cut and Paste feature? I would be surprised if that were Franklin.

  11. The only place the Fibs would roll the principles-ball would be around the corner and out of sight under the compost heap.

  12. poroti@5101:

    [Yep.When digging fence post holes for stainers it was spade to start but shovel when it got deep. Spades were still used going deep though to a) Tidy the hole shape and b) break up the compacted earth at the bottom of the hole , then shovel to remove dirt. Ah how I do not miss digging fence post holes in clay soils.]

    aaaarrgghh! call that post hole digging?

    What about the crow bar? We’ve got it tough up here (living in a cardboard box in middle of road and all!).

    Try a basalt ridge, nothing happens without a crowbar first.

    Went to my son’s place in WA recently and couldn’t get over the fact that all you needed was a shovel, it’s sand all the way down. Only problem is that the holes fill themselves in as you dig.

  13. Doyley I am just giving an opinion on what I know from the public record and could be wrong if her motives are other than acting on behalf of HUA members. Regardless of the motive it was the principled thing to do.

  15. OK

    firstly, a shovel – or spade – with soil on it is soiled. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s dirtier than that.

    secondly, there are several other scenarios whereby an unexpected shovel – or spade – turns up on one’s doorstep, however unexpectedly. (e.g. drunk coming home late finds said implement on naturestrip, returns it to nearest house).

    thirdly, there is something passing strange to reporting said shovel to police.

    fourthly, why assume the shovel was left there for you? Aren’t there other people in the house?

    It has an air of paranoia about it, to say the least.

    Of course if – as it seems – there’s an element of ongoing fallout from a divorce, I think we all know how weird that can get.

  17. Mr Jones’ producers usually provide him with some set shot one liners. Mr Jones is adept at firing these off at some hapless target at the appropriate time. His audiences oblige with a gleeful chuckle.

    This should not be taken that Mr Jones is actually as intelligent as he likes to think.

    IMHO, Mr Jones is at his worst when he can bully someone from his position of power as an interviewer or as chair of a panel. If you check the pattern of his interruptions and talking over others, his preference appears to be to bully women.

    In the minds of some, this would mean that Mr Jones is a bit of a jumped-up smarmy sexist smartarse. Others, however, would disagree.

    It is a matter of opinion.

  18. I also meant with fourthly that – assuming the shovel is loaded with symbolic threats – why assume those threats are aimed at one particular individual?

  19. Poroti
    [Yep.When digging fence post holes for stainers it was spade to start but shovel when it got deep. Spades were still used going deep though to a) Tidy the hole shape and b) break up the compacted earth at the bottom of the hole , then shovel to remove dirt. Ah how I do not miss digging fence post holes in clay soils.]

    I bet you don’t. And some of those clay soils such as on the north coast have rocks like footballs spread through like raisins in a cake.

    My personal favourite was digging a 12 foot deep hole to find a sewer main behind a new block of units, through all the builders’ rubble, including concrete waste, left over power line pieces, bits of wire mesh, silt guard, you name it. I had to down an extra longneck of Flag Ale at lunchtime to ease the pain and mental anguish. 😀

  20. poroti – thankyou for the link. The OO but I just new Valentine would write something sensible so opened it. How right he is. Relate that to how the PM answers questions to the rabble – reasonably, informatively, factually and compare it with the Opposition’s misrepresentations, distortions, grubbiness.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/plea-for-voice-for-reasonable-majority/story-e6frg71o-1226122342696

    I read the transcript of the LL interview that BushfireB mentioned and he was right. Jones completely missed the point because he was so busy trying to whitewash over his own part in the media circus.

  22. cardboard box? Looxoory! All we had for the whole village was one matchbox. We waited our turn on the roster too sleep in it.

  23. It would take a lot of courage for an individual Liberal Party member to go up against Mr Abbott in the Party Room and complain about his cesspool approach to political opportunism.

    Apparently unlike they lack courage.

  25. zoidlord

    @victoria/5075,

    [Maybe their internal polls may not be so squeaky clean.]

    You have to be joking! What possible gain would there be in commissioning and paying for a poll that wasn’t as accurate as possible? FFS, You’d have to be an idiot if you commissioned a not so squeaky clean internal poll and then expected to base your political strategies on it!

    “Internal polls” are mentioned so frequently because their purpose to track the electorate (usually seat-by-seat; often with complex demographic breakdowns) very accurately indeed -hence the ALP knew in advance (usually Wed of the last pre-election week) – polls to the contrary – it would lose 1980, win 1993 and lose 2004. One of the Libs’ problems is that they rarely have such accurate internal polling.

    NO (emphasised) political party wants a dodgy poll or inaccurate polling.

  26. zoomster
    I always return my shovels between the hours of 7 am and 6 pm. It’s more courteous and reduces the anxiety of the recipient.

  27. FAIL for Brandis – author Alex Steel, Law Faculty, UNSW

    [NSW police might be investigating allegations of credit card misuse by Craig Thomson as a result of a letter from the Shadow Attorney General Senator Brandis, but certainly not as a result of what the letter thinks is the law. If Senator Brandis was a law student his letter would be a clear fail. This is deeply worrying given his hope to be the nation’s top law officer.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2857018.html

  30. RE: The Thomson matter.

    The following is my personal opinion, is not to be taken as legal advice, and in no way infers that Craig Thomson ever used the services of an escort agency. It is purely discussion in the context of the current public debate.

    ————————————————————

    On the evidence in the public domain at present, the issue in respect to any possible s192E fraud charge is whether or not Thomson practiced a deception.

    That is, did he necessarily deceive someone in the obtaining of the financial advantage of not having to pay for goods or services he may have purchased on the credit card.

    The answer is likely to be no, for the following reason.

    A deception is the holding out of a thing as being true when the person holding it out knows it to be untrue.

    When Thomson made purchases on the credit card, he held himself out to the seller as being authorised by the credit card company to use the card for any purchase for which the card was authorised, by the credit provider, to be used.

    Whilst the card was being used according to the terms and conditions of its use as agreed to between the credit card company and the HSU, there was no deception.

    When the credit card authorisation was given to the HSU by the credit provider, it was likely to have been on the standard terms of such an authorisation. That is, the credit provider was unlikely to have withheld authorisation for the use of the card for, say, an escort agency.

    Though Thomson may have breached the terms of an agreement between himself and the HSU in respect to the use of the card, he would (under the standard terms of an agreement with a credit provider) not have deceived the HSU in order to make payment to, say, an escort agency. Nor would he have deceived, say, an escort agency in the making of a payment.

    He would have been authorised by the credit provider, under the terms and conditions of the card’s issue, to make purchases on the card with those businesses who had an agreement with the credit provider, such as, say, an escort agency.

    Though misuse of the credit card by Thomson would be a possible breach of contract with the HSU (for which a civil action may be brought), it would unlikely amount to the criminal offence of fraud.

  34. With the Liberal Party at the moment there is nothing proper and nothing principled.

    They have completely lost both to power lust. There is not one parliamentary party member with the common human decency or respect for our democracy to say, ‘No, that is a step too far.’

    Not one.

    Every last one of them has LMF.

  35. JV@5119:

    [My personal favourite was digging a 12 foot deep hole to find a sewer main behind a new block of units, through all the builders’ rubble, including concrete waste, left over power line pieces, bits of wire mesh, silt guard, you name it. I had to down an extra longneck of Flag Ale at lunchtime to ease the pain and mental anguish. ]

    Ok, you win! I can’t top that.

    I commiserate, but that comes under a different category, more like an archaeological dig than a post hole!

  36. don 5112

    [Try a basalt ridge, nothing happens without a crowbar first. ]
    I’ll pass on the basalt thanks.Putting holes in a basalt ridge sounds a bit too hard core for me 🙂 . After visiting your son you know why we’s be called Sandgropers ! For small round/square holes the trick is to make a shallow depression where you want to dig a hole and soak in some water before digging.

  38. William,

    I just wanted to share the title of LMFAO’s new hit song with al PB’s.

    Wait for it….

    Ready?

    Everybody shoveling… 😀

  40. From link above:
    [But for the Shadow Attorney-General to make a formal written allegation of crime to the Commissioner of Police and to allege a range of offences that could not possibly be the basis for a criminal charge is beyond sloppy.

    It suggests that the Senator’s staffers wrote this for him in a hurry in order to score a political point. They appear to not know the criminal law in NSW. It looks as though they looked at a copy of the Crimes Act circa 2011 and just jotted down the section titles that seemed to fit.

    While none of this detracts from the gravity of the alleged misbehaviour by Craig Thomson, the Shadow Attorney General’s reputation as a lawyer is diminished by this sloppy over-egging of the political attack.]

  43. [Why are the coalition behaving so desperately? They are miles ahead in the polls ]

    That’s a disconnect the media is ignoring almost entirely. Its strange.

  44. [What a wicked web the ALP weave when they try to deceive.]

    Rephrase that as:

    What a wicked web Labor weave,
    when those rats try to deceive.

    You’ve got a rhyme 😉

    Anyway, what dastardly crime are you referring to?

  46. William, do any of the polling companies have a poll where they simply ask “if an election were held today who would you vote for?” with no other follow up questions, qualifiers, or framing of the question within a particular context?

  47. While I haven’t seen any TV today, I’m assuming the various networks have all tried to get images of the actual shovel, and failing that have used a mock-up of a soiled shovel (file footage) to accompany their reporting?

  48. confessions

    Going on their recent form, they have probably taken a picture of the empty spot after the police have ‘seized’ the shovel/spade, or have done a reconstruction of a hooded person sneaking up to leave it.

  50. [Some of my friends in the party are pleading with me to stop criticising them in whatever I write or say. The obvious difficulty with that is the 27 per cent figure, which is the lowest recorded by a main party since polls came into being. Lavishing praise on the party is impossible in these circumstances if I am to be left with a shred of credibility – and credibility is not a word too many would associate with this Labor government]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/thomson-is-the-pms-ticking-time-bomb/story-e6frgd0x-1226122396641

    Whoo there, Neddy!! Richardson thinks he’s got credibility?!! It isn’t a word I EVER associated with Richo. Who does he lobby for now? Why did he come out so heavily against Kevin Rudd 18 months ago – who was he spruiking for then? It was at the time that Kev first mentioned his RSPtax and Richardson was gungho against it.

    Richo seems to work for Sky, Murdoch media, 2GB and 2UE. I guess he is doing his best to kill the NBN for them all by working hard to get Abbott elected and he’s been at it since he came out of dark closet of investigation into his affairs. Is he still angry because some in labor forsake him during that time (and probably since).?

    dovif – I take it you got that piece directly from the article which I will not read but I did hear Richardson on Agenda this morning and he was all smiley face and gloating demeanour as he spoke about Labor’s troubles. Says he’s been a member for 45 years but I reckon he’s one we can do without now.

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