GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead up from 56-44 to 57-43, from primary votes of 27 per cent for Labor (down two), 47 per cent for the Coalition (steady) and a solid 14 per cent for the Greens (up two). Taken together with personal ratings, the figures point to a still worsening disaffection with both options. After a slight recovery last time, Julia Gillard is back in the doghouse with 29 per cent approval (down four) and 61 per cent disapproval (down three), but Tony Abbott is also down three on approval to 36 per cent and up three on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott has maintained his one point lead as preferred prime minister, with both down a point to 39 per cent and 38 per cent.
Today’s Essential Research had Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.
In further poll news, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald related yesterday that a JWS Research automated phone poll had the Liberals leading 60-40 in beleagured Labor MP Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. The Weekend Australian also had Newspoll results on a range of issues to do with health policy, from which GhostWhoVotes presents the tables here, here, here and here.
UPDATE: Tasmanian gentleman psephologist Kevin Bonham offers the following historical context in comments:
OK so we have Gillard net sat -32 Abbott net sat -19. I did my bit by giving them both negatives.
The combined net sat of -51 for both leaders is now their worst and the =30th worst on record. The 29 worst readings are:
* Two Hawke-Peacocks from just before the 1990 election
* Four Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Twenty Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* Three Keating-DownersThe record is -76 by Keating-Hewson in Sep 1993.
The “best” net sat of -19 is their worst and the =22nd worst on record. The 21 worst readings are:
* One Hawke-Peacock
* Six Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Thirteen Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* One Keating-DownerThe record is -30 by Keating-Hewson in June 1993
There are only eight cases on record of the PM having a net sat of -32 or worse and a LOpp having a net sat of -19 or worse. These were all Keating-Hewsons (two before the election and six after).
Howard’s worst net sat in his successful term as Leader of the Opposition was -12.
victoria:
Is this your daughter? Sounds like she’s very sick!
fess
Glad we got to the bottom of it.
Grave-no
Shit-yes
Sossman: I fully expect some people in here will start calling Kathy Jackson a traitor to the Labor cause – the partisanship here is getting ridiculous.
[Ok, so if shovels are for moving stuff around rather than digging holes, then we can rule out a grave-digging message to Jackson.]
It could have been left by a Lib – everyone knows they’ve never done an honest days work in their lives so probably don’t know the difference between the two 😀
We can assume Ms Jackson wasn’t shovel-ready.
confessions
Yes my youngest who is 13. At the moment, she is feeling a little better
I take it that the word ‘soiled’ refers to the suspected or actual presence of excrement on the shovel?
If so, the most likely cultural reference would be to ‘shovelling shit uphill without a barrow’ or ‘shovelling shit against the tide’.
When it comes to serious policy discussions, the MSM is up shit creek without a paddle. So they are using a shovel instead of a paddle.
Perhaps we have an entire profession that was smacked on the bottie during pottie training and has never recovered its psychological poise?
When is Brandis going to be investigated for political interference and perverting the course of justice.
Oops too slow with the obvious gag about the Libs.
[Police start digging on union chief’s spade ‘threat’]
From the OO.
It’s a spade now?
autocrat
but that might be the explanation….perhaps it was meant to be a hoe.
A nice article from James Valentine in the Oz
[Most of us are not splenetically spraying spittle everywhere as we berate the government. Most of us don’t feel the need to screech at people we disagree with. Most of us are getting a little tired of the extremists pulling focus.
You can’t wave a placard about that declaims: “I’m happy to hear your side of the things and may well concede you have a point!”
You can’t stand in a crowd and yell, “What do we want?” “A cogent argument and sensible compromise!” “When do want it?”
“When it’s ready!”
You can’t thump your fist into your hand and declare, “I’m not sure about this. This is a complex issue and there’s a lot to consider.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/plea-for-voice-for-reasonable-majority/story-e6frg71o-1226122342696
victoria
Best wishes to you and your daughter.
Fess,
I think it more likely to be a bit of misdirection. Tone and the convoyservatives screwed up what was supposed to be The Big Week, (which turned into The Big Weak), so there is a lot of unicorn-spotting going on.
Being open and transparent is never a betrayal of the Labor cause.
As I said, while I back Kathy Jackson’s (and others) decision to bring more transparency to the whole Thomson matter, I still don’t understand why she agrees to do THAT photo portrait for The Australian.
What was the point?
OH just mentioned Abbott is on Sky News in the last wet-suit factory operating in Australia which will, wait for it, be severely impacted by the carbon tax! Yet another FFS moment.
Thanks Boerwar. Hope your health issues turn out well
I don’t care whether the shovel is another of Mr Abbott’s asinine stunts or an actual implied threat by someone else.
Whoever it was should be charged with being a public nuisance.
v
Will know more by this time next week so just have to go with the flow until then.
ajm
Is he dressed like a condom in latex?
[Fairfax Media has recorded a substantial loss for the past financial year, following significant asset write-downs and restructuring costs.
The company, publisher of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, announced it had made a loss of $390.9 million after-tax for the 12 months to the end of June.
The result is a huge turnaround from last year’s $282 million profit.]
Perhaps if they didn’t try to mirror the News ltd trash, they might be more profitable?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-26/fairfax-media-posts-big-loss/2857084
Should have said, in keeping with the current theme he’s pushing.
so the week that was now i wonder , has tone read the below.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/thomson-unlikely-to-be-charged-experts-say-20110825-1jcja.html#ixzz1W4obcwR7
It had actual ‘soil’ on it? Eww, that’s yeck. I would have called the police too.
Why are the coalition behaving so desperately? They are miles ahead in the polls
breaka, breaka, we have a problem with a dirty shovel, over.
well we stopped buying msm’s
@victoria/5075,
Maybe their internal polls may not be so squeaky clean.
victoria, just that abbotts ambitions ” i want it NOW”
Spade-gate sounds Liberal, they have plenty of shyte to spare.
Puff:
And typical of today’s msm that a soiled shovel/spade represents yet another shimmering bauble in the sideshow.
in think that about internal polling as well.
and if the ordinary pools dont swing out way after all this mud throwing
i am going wonder.
the ess. poll of course is not a phone poll so we will see
Wasn’t Godwin Grech reported to have been a keen gardener?
i am going to wonder , what the australian people see as good gov,. a mud throwing lot of decent mp getting on with the policey work and producing
do we may mps to mud throw or work
my say,
Abbott sounds like the kid who always got a chocolate when he chucked a tanty in the supermarket.
or do we pay mps to throw mud
The discussion of potential DD and half-Senate results in this thread excludes the Senator X factor. In a half-Senate election (he current term expires 30/06/2014) he is likely to be re-elected with Senator SH-Y, 2 ALP and 2 Liberals from SA. An SA DD result would be quite split. Senator X would be re-elected and might get his running-mate up. The Greens would get 1 or 2 (electoral seniority would suggest SH-Y is definite and Wright is not but who knows) and FF would be in with a shot. I would think a minimum of 4 Liberals and 3 but almost certainly 4 ALP.
yes i bet, and other things to may be,
i can remember seeing one of mine do that left and packed the groceries in the car, arrived soon after, ” dont go with out me”
dont u love those mothers who scream at their children in the supermarket, so they can be seen to being good disciplinarians
[Now 811 days to go to the next election]
Since a change of government would come with an HoR successful No Confidence vote, easier to think if it terms of sitting days. My post-election 2010 strategy was (as some may recall) How many sitting days left until 1 July 2011 when ALP + Greens control the Senate?
Disclaimer: my arithmetic isn’t good at the best of times – so, allowing for that, I’ll add a big “about”. Also earning an “about” is the time between calling the election and Election day – I’ve allowed for 6 weeks.
There were 67 scheduled sitting days in 2011, with allowance for 3 more in November if needed. 44 have gone; leaving only 23 scheduled + ?3.
Assuming 2012 has the same number of sitting days (67 +?3); there are 56-60 left before CP legislation comes into effect, the first compensation is already in bank accounts; so 90 + ?(3×2) until 2012’s last sitting day.
After that, with most of the legislation passed, there’s little political mileage in rolling the government before the 2013 election’s due. Aussie voters don’t like early “opportunist” elections unless something drastic’s happened to push the vote in either direction.
If the election’s held when due (August 2013), there are about 48 sitting days in 2013. September’s trickier, as an election held on or before would knock out 15 sitting days (so still 48 sitting days); if last Saturday in October, there would be c55 sitting days. If held on the last Saturday in November, c56.
victoria,
Hope your daughter is ok. Sending virtual hugs!
Diogenes and confesisons
Hang on, hang on. You’re talking to a former drainers’ labourer here. Hasn’t anyone done any hard yakka?
Yes a spade is for digging, but so is a shovel. A spade is generally for shallow digigng in the garden, or for neat small trenches, whereas a proper long-handled shovel is used for digging serious holes, and also for work loading wheelbarrows from piles of material etc. Shovels were once used to dig graves, but these days a machine – backhoe – is used, but the symbolism is still there.
moving piles of material by wheebarrow
SK
Thanks. She is on her lap top and me on tne ipad. Just waiting for 4.00, when we go back for a diagnosis. That is provided nothing changes with her symptoms in the meantime.
my say
[victoria, just that abbotts ambitions ” i want it NOW”]
I think this song from Queen has the right lyrics for Tony.
[I want it all
I want it all
I want it all
and I want it Now]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdWxf1tRmI
I respect what the board of HSU did but no doubt Jackson will pay a high price for here principled stand. We all should support her for putting her fiduciary responsibilities ahead of all else.
DavidWH
Ms Jackson has no choice but to hand over documentation. The police were asked to act by Mr Brandis, after he called the NSW Police Minister, who then called the Police Commissioner. After the NSW police minister spoke to the Commissioner he then called Mr Brandis again.
Gallcher on ABC24 now changing his story………
apparrently Brandis asked “where should i send the file”? Gallecher, said to send it to Scipione, and he (Gallacher) did not want to see it.
now this is very different to what Brandis said
On Faine this morning, Stuart littlemore was a guest in conversation hour promoting his novel.
It occurred to me that he, as a QC and former Media Watch host, would be the perfect person to head an enquiry into the Media if the government goes ahead. The SMH’s legal correspondent, Richard Ackland, another ex-Media watch host, famed for breaking the ‘cash for comments’ might also be good on such a panel.
The way the media’s hysteria has run on the Thomson stuff might just be enough to get the government on side over this need.
victoria,
Fingers crossed.
sprocket
This needs to be investigated pronto!
I look forward to the Liberal Party taking a principled stand on anything at all.
We should support whoever it is in the Liberal Party that sets the principles ball rolling if it ever does.
At the moment no-one in the Liberal parliamentary part appears to have any ethical backbone at all. Mr Abbott and his toxic opportunist approach has turned even decent men and women in moral jellyfish.