Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead up from 56-44 to 57-43, from primary votes of 27 per cent for Labor (down two), 47 per cent for the Coalition (steady) and a solid 14 per cent for the Greens (up two). Taken together with personal ratings, the figures point to a still worsening disaffection with both options. After a slight recovery last time, Julia Gillard is back in the doghouse with 29 per cent approval (down four) and 61 per cent disapproval (down three), but Tony Abbott is also down three on approval to 36 per cent and up three on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott has maintained his one point lead as preferred prime minister, with both down a point to 39 per cent and 38 per cent.

Today’s Essential Research had Labor up a point on two-party preferred (to 56-44 from 57-43) and also on the primary vote, to 32 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent. In other findings, 24 per cent support the health package finalised by government last month against 9 per cent opposed, with the great majority either indifferent (31 per cent said it would have little or no impact) or ignorant (28 per cent said they had heard nothing, 36 per cent little). Forty-seven per cent supported David Cameron’s suggestion that access to Twitter and Facebook be blocked during periods of civil unrest, with support varying as you would expect according to age and social media usage.

In further poll news, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald related yesterday that a JWS Research automated phone poll had the Liberals leading 60-40 in beleagured Labor MP Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. The Weekend Australian also had Newspoll results on a range of issues to do with health policy, from which GhostWhoVotes presents the tables here, here, here and here.

UPDATE: Tasmanian gentleman psephologist Kevin Bonham offers the following historical context in comments:

OK so we have Gillard net sat -32 Abbott net sat -19. I did my bit by giving them both negatives.

The combined net sat of -51 for both leaders is now their worst and the =30th worst on record. The 29 worst readings are:

* Two Hawke-Peacocks from just before the 1990 election
* Four Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Twenty Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* Three Keating-Downers

The record is -76 by Keating-Hewson in Sep 1993.

The “best” net sat of -19 is their worst and the =22nd worst on record. The 21 worst readings are:

* One Hawke-Peacock
* Six Keating-Hewsons from before the 1993 election
* Thirteen Keating-Hewsons from after the 1993 election
* One Keating-Downer

The record is -30 by Keating-Hewson in June 1993

There are only eight cases on record of the PM having a net sat of -32 or worse and a LOpp having a net sat of -19 or worse. These were all Keating-Hewsons (two before the election and six after).

Howard’s worst net sat in his successful term as Leader of the Opposition was -12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,188 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  2. [lyndalcurtis Lyndal Curtis
    Glenn Stevens says “it would be a better world if all the emerging economies had a flexible inflation target and floating exchange rate …
    ]
    [lyndalcurtis Lyndal Curtis
    …but as to when that will happen “I’m not exactly holding my breath”
    ]

  5. [drake

    It did cross my mind, a la Lindsay pamphlets.

    Another possibility is that the shovel came from Ikea and it’s a cultural reference to the famous anti-consumerist play “I Bought a Spade at Ikea to Dig My Own Grave.”]

    IKEA make shovels?

    How do you flat-pack a shovel?

  8. help

    when i was trying to down load smilies ended up with some thing called
    sweet somthing other went in control panel found it and disabled

    turned off computer got back all my setting even norton had gone, but it still is hanging around that teaches me to off in cyber world i know nothing about.

  9. [Are the police going to set up a stake-out in case a garden fork is next?]

    There’s a team of specialists surveilling Bunnings as we speak.

  10. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    La Stupenda once again demonstrates that there isn’t a nasty, negative back alley she won’t saunter down if there’s some hackery against Gillard to be had.]

    Yet another fine post, BB. I can’t bear to read Grattan these days. Tell me, can she yet bring herself to refer to Gillard as the “Prime Minister”?

    All this bullsh about Gillard lacking gravitas, and they can’t even pretend to show respect for the office.

  13. Some very brave predictions in here about Labor winning the next election – I guess some of you really can see into the future? 😉

  22. Why has no-one twigged that the shovel is described as “soiled”. One of the meanings of this is it quite literally had sh*t on it. Makes it a pretty effective statement IMHO.

  25. [What’s the difference between a spade and a shovel?]

    A vowel and a couple of consonants?

    Dunno. Was wondering myself.

  26. my say

    Back from doctor. Daughter Had blood test etc. We need to go back this afternoon. Believe it may be a “grumbling” appendix. Fingers crossed.

  27. [Will someone leave pinking shears at Christopher Pyne’s front door?]

    😆

    I’m waiting for the inevitable Joe Hockey gag.

  28. [DavidWH
    Posted Friday, August 26, 2011 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    That was an interesting interpretation of the Crimes Act by Alex Steel

    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca190082/s192e.html

    A person may be convicted of the offence of fraud involving all or any part of a general deficiency in money or other property even though the deficiency is made up of any number of particular sums of money or items of other property that were obtained over a period of time.]

    The operative word surely is “may”. Why would they go to the trouble and expense if there was a chance of a not guilty verdict?

    Like the jury’s cattle-duffing verdict 150 years back. “Not guilty, provided he returns the cattle.”

  30. Dio
    Ye ain’t of the labouring classes.
    A spade is for pottering around the garden, a shovel is for digging holes or moving a pile of stuff. The spade is usually flatter with no lip at the edges.

  32. grumbling appendix.. well why do you have to go back this after noon
    may have been better to keep for observation

    one of mind had that think it means its sort of not to the point of taking out?

    its that right, but if she really gets a lot of pain i would go straing to the hospital

  33. [What’s the difference between a spade and a shovel?]
    Well going from my days down on the farm a spade generally had a squarish rectangular blade and was for digging holes. Shovels had more scoop like shapes and a longer handle and were used for shifting dirt/sand/cement etc. Shovels were better for shifting stuff as in shovelling.

  40. [ Only neat-freaks and Peter Cundell actually clean garden tools.]

    and my oh if you clean out the chook pen then you dip in boiling water not sure why he does that. thats his department

  42. FFS, drop the talk of phony “mandates”.

    If the next election is in 2013, something that is more probable than not, Abbott will not go with a policy to repeal carbon pricing. At that point, he’ll have been so firmly wedged by the assistance packages that he won’t have any choice but to drop the whole idea.

    That’s assuming that he’s still LOTO by then, if there’s any sort of sustained downturn for him in the polls all that will be left behind are skidmarks.

  43. From the ABS…

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/BBA71EB915D24CAECA2578F8000B70F8?OpenDocument

    [MEDIA RELEASE
    26 August 2011 Embargo: 11.30 am (Canberra time) 97/2011

    Men and women are both living longer, and prospering

    Women are still living longer than men, but men are closing the gap, according to a new publication released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

    Over the last ten years life expectancy at birth has increased at a greater rate for men (by 3 years) than for women (by 2 years). However, women continue to have a higher life expectancy at birth (now 84 years for women and 79 years for men).]

    I blame the government.

  44. While I strongly support the HSU’s decision to refer the matter to police / cooperate with police in regards to the Thomson allegations…

    … why do you need to then go and pose cross-armed and angry looking infront of an ambulance at night for The Australian? What the hell is going on?

  45. Puff, Ducky:

    Ok, so if shovels are for moving stuff around rather than digging holes, then we can rule out a grave-digging message to Jackson. 😆

    Shovelling shit on the other hand….

  47. my say

    The GP is very close to home. They have ordered urgent blood tests. If in the meantime, her symptoms worsen, we have to go straight to emergency.

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