Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

The ghost with the most reports this fortnight’s Newspoll very much maintains the status quo: two-party steady on 56-44, primary votes of 29 per cent Labor (steady), 47 per cent Coalition (steady) and 12 per cent Greens (down one), personal ratings of 33 per cent (up one) approval and 58 per cent disapproval (down one) for Julia Gillard and 39 per cent and 52 per cent (both steady) for Tony Abbott, and preferred prime minister at 39 per cent for Gillard and 40 per cent for Abbott (both down one). UPDATE: Tables here.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, their lead now out to 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition gained a point to 50 per cent, with Labor down one to 30 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Essential also crafted a series of questions to make a statement, as it does from time to time: a quiz question to expose a misapprehension (has the number of boat arrivals increased over the past year?), and the same attitudinal question on either side to show how it affects public opinion. The reach of the misapprehension in this case proved quite remarkable: 62 per cent believed boat arrivals had increased, against only 7 per cent who correctly answered that they had fallen. However, it occurs to me that some may simply be misjudging the time frame since the onset of the escalation which began in late 2009. Nonetheless, the clarification elicited a 10 point cut in the number professing themselves very concerned about boat arrivals, to 33 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,393 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. The essence of evil in the government’s policy is contained in the abuse of traumatized human beings as pawns in an exercise to garner votes from the worst elements in our society- in preference over keeping progressive votes.

    At the same time this is entrenching bipartisan cruelty as a norm for this country.

    That capitulation by Labor is a terrible and callous process to watch and it is visible on Bowen’s face as he spinelessly takes each step. Supporters should not underestimate the damage being done to the party in my opinion.

  2. Spur something doesn’t seem right with those poll numbers.

    If SA has 1.6 million people and 1 million are in Adelaide and that 1 million is falling 51/49 then how can the state be showing up 54/46? The rest would have to be falling very heavily in favour of the Coalition. It doesn’t seem to gel.

  3. DavidWH

    Just to give you an idea: Chaffey which covers Renmark and the Riverland had a contest between the Liberal and National parties at the last election (although the National was a minister for water in the ALP government). Mt Gambier was a contest between a Liberal and a Liberal leaning Independent. Frome, Liberal vs Independent (I suspect he leans slightly towards the ALP).

    Most of the regional areas of SA are firmly Liberal.

  7. [None of the candidates said they would accept such a deal.

    That’s the sort of wackaloonery Obama is up against.]

    Right. Its a tough situation, but he has little interest in doing much that’s worthwhile anyway. Even his advisors are coming out and saying it.

    [I’m told White House political operatives are against a bold jobs plan. They believe the only jobs plan that could get through Congress would be so watered down as to have almost no impact by Election Day. They also worry the public wouldn’t understand how more government spending in the near term can be consistent with long-term deficit reduction. And they fear Republicans would use any such initiative to further bash Obama as a big spender.

    So rather than fight for a bold jobs plan, the White House has apparently decided it’s politically wiser to continue fighting about the deficit. The idea is to keep the public focused on the deficit drama – to convince them their current economic woes have something to do with it, decry Washington’s paralysis over fixing it, and then claim victory over whatever outcome emerges from the process recently negotiated to fix it. They hope all this will distract the public’s attention from the President’s failure to do anything about continuing high unemployment and economic anemia.]

    http://robertreich.org/post/8704286098

  10. Julia,

    Totally smashing the $70 BILLION dollar black hole into perspective. Every pension dollar we spend for two years. To find that kind of money you’d have to smash into education, smash into pensions!

    Tone, you have lost your mojo and JG has found hers!

  13. [Totally smashing the $70 BILLION dollar black hole into perspective. Every pension dollar we spend for two years. To find that kind of money you’d have to smash into education, smash into pensions!

    Tone, you have lost your mojo and JG has found hers! ]

    🙂 This about what she said last night or something now?

  22. [Abbott had the momntum, and then went overseas for 10 days. Was that q politically sensible thing to do? ]

    The problem with his approach (even ignoring its reliance on media coverage) is that it requires being kept up constantly. We’re starting to see the results of what happens when it isn’t maintained even for a week and a half.

  25. [1 boat in each of 2002, 2003, 2004
    4 in 2005
    6 in 2006
    5 in 2007
    7 in 2008
    61 in 2009
    134 in 2010]

    and other than xenophobic bogan tools, who gives a flying f a r k about such small numbers of people? Labor needs to show some moral leadership on this and appeal to the ‘Turnbull liberals’ rather than the bogans.

    Australians have such short memories about the contributions refugees have made and are making to this country throughout our post-1788 history. The last of my forbears got here in 1854 and several of those were essentially refugees from Ireland, Scotland and Germany. I don’t think of myself as strongly ‘Australian’ or ‘more-Australian’ than others – I’m an internationalist rather than ‘an Australian’.

    What amazes me is that it is often second generation Aussies that are the biggest anti-refugee bogans you can find. e.g. Andrew Bolt’s dad was essentially a ‘clog-wog’ dutch refugees from post-war Europe; Tory Bernadi; Mirabella (née Panopoulos). I theorise that they have identity issues about being told/feeling they were ‘not true Australians’ as kids and their response to it is to go ferally xenophobic to prove their credentials (John Pasquarelli is in this camp too, but I think his ancestors go back to his grandparents – but he would have grown up with xenophobic Aussies saying ‘that doesn’t sound very Australian’ and ‘where are you from’?). Xenophobia/Intolerance begets xenophobia/intolerance – look at the right wingers claiming/implying that what’s happening in the UK is due to multiculturalism (and therefore they are correct about their intolerance) without recognising that this is the result of excluding people from society.

    Labor and moderate libs needs to stand up on this one. Only the Greens and a few true liberals who objected to the Howard-era policies now being embraced by Gillard have any credibility on the issue.

  26. Rishane and BK – I thought the forum last night was interesting in that, even tho some questions were asked by people I thought negative to the PM, they were at least respectful and there was no apparent deep animosity.

    Speers found it hard to intervene with a ‘gotcha’ moment.

  27. BH

    I was very surprised by the forum last night. I saw no resentment. Very different to what the PM endured in the past in NSW and QLD

  30. [Rishane and BK – I thought the forum last night was interesting in that, even tho some questions were asked by people I thought negative to the PM, they were at least respectful and there was no apparent deep animosity.

    Speers found it hard to intervene with a ‘gotcha’ moment. ]

    Yeah really. Its also worth noting that she did what some people here have advocated and mentioned a couple of times about how Labor and the Coalition agree about the 5% goal, they just differ on how/when they intend to do it. The vaunted hand gestures even made a show to illustrate how its less effect on the economy to do it in 2012 than in say 2018. Went well.

  31. [Abbott had the momntum, and then went overseas for 10 days. Was that q politically sensible thing to do?]

    victoria – definitely, from our point of view. It made many see how differently our media cycle travels without Abbott’s constant stunting.

  33. BH

    From our point of view it was indeed great. Abbott has returned and picked up where he left off. It might still work for him, but it seems so jaded now

  35. tlbd

    thanks. re pay tv – you’re not missing much – contemplating cost-cutting.

    btw – sunny, breathless on sth. side.

  37. We cut Pay Tv a couple of years ago, were really not watching it, don’t miss it at all. The only ones I liked were BBC History NG and Bloomberg

  38. BBP, any chance you will answer Victoria’s very straight forward question ? You appear to have very strong views on this , surely, with all the knowledge you seem to have you could have crack at answering. Go on give it a go.

  39. ,

    [Totally smashing the $70 BILLION dollar black hole into perspective. Every pension dollar we spend for two years. To find that kind ]

    this is why the liberals resisted having any policies, it just better to say no to the gov.

  40. thank you Sk, regarding the GST perhaps we should ( should say you lol} tweet every couple of months, till its picked up,.

  43. billy

    I am happy for bbp to take as long as he likes ro answer the question. I am very interested to know what bbp thinks.

  44. [I am happy for bbp to take as long as he likes ro answer the question. I am very interested to know what bbp thinks.]

    Vic, Aldi have a special on popcorn at the moment…

  45. triton

    my daughter loves ‘ace of cakes’ – used her phone to set recorder while travelling in usa – confused the hell out of me as i was unaware of the feature/range.

  48. [GREENS leader Bob Brown has warned a Coalition government could tip Australia into recession through massive spending cuts to fund its election commitments]

    lol because the great big new tax will lead us to green economic prosperity.

    I trust LIBs over Bob Brown and his eco ways to financial ruin.

  50. Can someone please bring me up to date on where the $70B figure comes from?

    I know $27B of it is the cost of removing the CT.

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