Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

The ghost with the most reports this fortnight’s Newspoll very much maintains the status quo: two-party steady on 56-44, primary votes of 29 per cent Labor (steady), 47 per cent Coalition (steady) and 12 per cent Greens (down one), personal ratings of 33 per cent (up one) approval and 58 per cent disapproval (down one) for Julia Gillard and 39 per cent and 52 per cent (both steady) for Tony Abbott, and preferred prime minister at 39 per cent for Gillard and 40 per cent for Abbott (both down one). UPDATE: Tables here.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, their lead now out to 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition gained a point to 50 per cent, with Labor down one to 30 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Essential also crafted a series of questions to make a statement, as it does from time to time: a quiz question to expose a misapprehension (has the number of boat arrivals increased over the past year?), and the same attitudinal question on either side to show how it affects public opinion. The reach of the misapprehension in this case proved quite remarkable: 62 per cent believed boat arrivals had increased, against only 7 per cent who correctly answered that they had fallen. However, it occurs to me that some may simply be misjudging the time frame since the onset of the escalation which began in late 2009. Nonetheless, the clarification elicited a 10 point cut in the number professing themselves very concerned about boat arrivals, to 33 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,393 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [Yes, some were towed back but the flow was effectively stopped.]
    This is rubbish. The number of refugees wanting to come to Australia related to world factors we had no control over. The influx from Sri Lanka recently just happened to coincide with the final assualt of the Sri Lankan government on the Tamil Tigers stronghold. Likewise the 2001 spike coincided with war in Afghanistan. I have posted links prviously on the ups and downs of international refugee numbers, which mirror Australian arrival patterns.

  2. Darn it comes from a leaked shadow cabinet document and includes the cost of reversing both the CPM and RRT along with other policy announcements made by the opposition. Turnbull could probably provide more information.

  3. [That capitulation by Labor is a terrible and callous process to watch and it is visible on Bowen’s face as he spinelessly takes each step. Supporters should not underestimate the damage being done to the party in my opinion.]

    jv – as much as I want the As to be brought onshore and processed here I know that it is a pipedream. It will not be accepted until the policy is bipartisan and that will only be when the Lib/Nats decide that they have had enough and they want to bring the AS onshore.

    In the meantime I reckon that a regional centre to process people quickly and calmly will mean we can ultimately bring more As on shore. I don’t equate the people smugglers with those who helped people during WW2

    I have the hope that this will work and that it will help Malaysia to change its laws in relation to refugees and begin dialogue with UNHCR. Let’s give it a chance to work and let’s have regional processing centres in other Asian countries as well.

    Australians react well to fear – bipartisanship is a long way off.

  4. GREENS leader Bob Brown has warned a Coalition government could tip Australia into recession through massive spending cuts to fund its election commitments

    That’s pretty cute coming from Brown.

  5. [I trust LIBs over Bob Brown and his eco ways to financial ruin.]
    Curious that the “responsible” Libs voted against the stimulus that saved Australia from recession. even Fieldig supported it. But the “responsible” Libs opposed it.

    I trust Libs to do anything to seize and keep power, including wreck our economy.

  6. victoria I think the chance it was Turnbull is about the same as the chance it was Rudd that leaked during the last election campaign. You just need to consider who had the information and who has the most to gain from Abbott losing ground in the polls.

  7. Otiose:
    […used her phone to set recorder while travelling in usa]

    That’s a nice trick. I can’t do that from the next room.

    Cake Boss has escaped me so far. I might see if I should add it to the list.

  8. hi victoria

    Thanks for your enquiry. Making a habit of an afternoon nap nowadays! Not quite recovered, still some follow-up X-rays and lung tests, but pretty good. I’ve discovered deep breathing as brain therapy 🙂 Actually feel better than I have for months so all the medication must have been effective.

  9. Two Morgan’s (I’m going off the respondent allocated preferences based William made clear in the last post on Morgan)

    FTF ALP 43.5 L/NP 56.5

    Phone ALP 43 L/NP 57

    Julia Gillard’s Carbon Tax: Support 38% (+1), Oppose 56 (-2)

    Repealing the Carbon Tax: Support 45% (-3) Oppose 48 (+3)

    Malaysian Solution: Support 52%, Oppose 37%

  10. Otiose and DavidWH…

    I suppose they gave you the old….

    [Anybody who ever built an empire, or changed the world, sat where you are now. And it’s *because* they sat there that they were able to do it.]

    Must have been rotten.

  11. It will be a lot harder for the Libs to fudge their figures now the $70B figure is out in the open.

    Finally we may be seeing some serious scrutiny of their policies and costings – and simple re-assurances by sloppy Joe that it will somehow all work out in the end, will not be good enough.

  12. [What annoyed me most when I was ill was not being able to think logically in order to post on PB]

    lizie, so you were technically a Lib poster then?

  13. [It depends on whether the attrition is natural or forced.]
    How much voluntary attrrition is there going to be with share markets and retirement savings down?

  14. All those quoting asylum arrivals etc. from the glorious howard era , get over it .
    The question quite rightly posed by someone else on this site is:
    For those lovers of the Nauru will stop the boats how as opposed to the malaysian or any other solution ?
    Will asylum seekers say “OH gee , I’m going to be sent to nauru , so I won’t go on that boat” but the boat going to Manus Is, Chritmas Island, Gilligans Island..yeah gee I’ll get on that one.
    Past glories are just that..we had a bipartisan approach once upon a time , but that has passed too ,unfortuneately.

  15. [ Abbott had the momntum, and then went overseas for 10 days. Was that q politically sensible thing to do?

    victoria – definitely, from our point of view. It made many see how differently our media cycle travels without Abbott’s constant stunting.]
    Whilst I agree there appears to have been a change, TA’s simple (albiet misleading) message approach will slot easily back into the news cycle. I suspect he’ll be questioned a bit more about some the three word responses, but that message is so easy for less than stellar journalists to swallow.

  16. spur those are interesting numbers. It sort of shows that while a reasonable majority are still anti-CPM a reasonable number believe that once implemented there is no point repealing it which is just being logical. That may help Labor once the policy is passed and implemented.

  17. lizzie @ 3327

    [ What annoyed me most when I was ill was not being able to think logically in order to post on PB

    Good to hear You are better, lizzie. But whatever made You think posting on PB requires logic?

  18. Arunta…no solution may now work because Kevin Rudd destroyed the perception that we had closed to doors on AS…the perception that Howard and Co began and maintained throughout their time in office and that Labor sort to publicly step away from once they took power in 2007.

    I dare say if I were an AS I’d spend 2 years on Nauru or Manus Is than 10 years in Malaysia living in a foreign country which doesnt want me living there…just saying.

  19. Should be no surprise Abbott is chasing $70 billion in cuts. The only surprise is that he has heard of the budget.

    The libs here are just following the right wing economic policy mantra that the Republicans are swinging by, the very same mantra Cameron has introduced into England.

    This is as much a right v left economic ideology battle as anything. As far as the right is concerned government should have very little fiscal intervention into the economy at all. Bugger the ebbs and flows that the budget should experience as economic conditions change. Spend little and let the private sector handle things. A few tax cuts here and there to help their mates and shore up votes before a election but very little positive intervention.

    As far as the right is concerned the stimulus here never had any effect on the economy. It was Howards surplus and China that saved us. Nothing more, nothing less.

    The tories in England and the republicans are playing a dangerous game with their respective economies. Only time will tell but I fear that their actions will do more harm than good.

    The same here.

  20. [I trust LIBs over Bob Brown and his eco ways to financial ruin.]

    this is a really lazy and uninformed comment worthy of a Jones/Bolt/McCrann acolyte. Try the following:

    1. Go to the greens website. Here you will find on 365 days per year a clear statement of detailed Greens policies (go and check the lib and labor sites – you will find no such thing). These polices are developed by the membership and committees and are an integrated package for achieving a sustainable future (catchy name, I might use that ) – a green economy and a just, fully functioning society. Policy is not made up on the run, nor using west Sydney focus groups or the will of major donors. There’s some really smart people involved and it shows.

    2. read the policies (here are the economic ones – but there are more. have a look, it might convert you. )

    3. name a single policy that would lead to ‘financial ruin’. If you definition of ‘ruin’ is that the super wealthy and corporations might be a bit less wealthy, then I’ll agree with you, but if you actually mean the majority of people will be worse off, then you’ll need to provide evidence based on more than economic doctrine – I’ll make it easier for you – explain where would you rather be born into a random family (might be rich, might be poor, might be white, might be black): the US (the liberal’s dream society) or Norway, Sweden, Australia or the vision of Australia that the Greens offer. Which one would you think your great grandkids might prefer to be randomly born into?

    4. Put up or shut the F*** up

  21. [Two Morgan’s (I’m going off the respondent allocated preferences based William made clear in the last post on Morgan)]


    I thought William preferred NOT to use the respondent allocated preferences. Has he changed his mind on that?

  22. Ozymandias

    It’s a failing of mine to be reasonable whenever I can. But sometimes I slip into ANGER and then logic can fly out of the window. Certain Lib pollies seem to affect me that way 🙁

  23. Socrates @ 3313
    [And this will take how many years?]

    Two years according to Joe on lateline the other night. 115 workers every week for two years is quite a lot of natural (*cough*) attrition.

  24. sparrow@3338
    Agree with you , but why begin the conversation at Labors door, why not go back a little and begin with..once Howard and crew demonised and the AS and created the perception that they were ‘disease carrying, possible al quaida type , que jumping illegals , that want to take our jobs and rape our women’ …..having created the perception and the problem I agree with you that no solution may work.

  25. [Malaysian Solution: Support 52%, Oppose 37%]
    This sounds about right but who knows. We have some polls showing the opposite.

  26. Socrates
    Posted Friday, August 12, 2011 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    The stock market has calmed down and the recovery been sustained.

    Socs – Surely you are taking the mickey ?

    Brokers, analysts and bank strategists saying *time to buy more shares*. hoho, who would’ve thunked.

    In short, far to early to call. Far too early.

    But feel free to take long positions.

  27. lizzie – glad to hear you are slowly recovering. If you’ve got a lot of gum trees around try deep breathing amongst them. My OH swears by it – I laugh at him but he seems to think it helps.

    DavidWH – I thought Graham Richardson had been reported as saying that someone on Rudd’s staff did the leaking about JG.

    Perhaps Joe Hockey did it himself so that he could come out and say ‘no worries. I’m Joe, the Gadget Man, and I can fix it for you’. He certainly has close ties to Ch7.

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