Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

The ghost with the most reports this fortnight’s Newspoll very much maintains the status quo: two-party steady on 56-44, primary votes of 29 per cent Labor (steady), 47 per cent Coalition (steady) and 12 per cent Greens (down one), personal ratings of 33 per cent (up one) approval and 58 per cent disapproval (down one) for Julia Gillard and 39 per cent and 52 per cent (both steady) for Tony Abbott, and preferred prime minister at 39 per cent for Gillard and 40 per cent for Abbott (both down one). UPDATE: Tables here.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, their lead now out to 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition gained a point to 50 per cent, with Labor down one to 30 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Essential also crafted a series of questions to make a statement, as it does from time to time: a quiz question to expose a misapprehension (has the number of boat arrivals increased over the past year?), and the same attitudinal question on either side to show how it affects public opinion. The reach of the misapprehension in this case proved quite remarkable: 62 per cent believed boat arrivals had increased, against only 7 per cent who correctly answered that they had fallen. However, it occurs to me that some may simply be misjudging the time frame since the onset of the escalation which began in late 2009. Nonetheless, the clarification elicited a 10 point cut in the number professing themselves very concerned about boat arrivals, to 33 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,393 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

  1. reposting my thoughts on Ruddock

    [ In 1997, [Ruddock] warned Refugee Review Tribunal members publicly that they should not expect their contracts to be renewed if they purported to ‘re-invent’ the definition of refugee (by recognising that a woman victim of domestic violence could be a refugee).]

    Ruddock was a weasel in many ways – he enjoyed micro managing the Immigration regulations so that he finessed the definition of “spouse” multiple times, to prevent “loopholes” as they arose. The net effect was that there were contradictory definitions of spouse in different regulations, which caused havoc in the compliance area.

    He micromanaged so much that he instituted a ministerial clearance (initial) on every page of every regulation, including the quarterly CPI fee increases. this led to a foot thick pile of paper which had to be cleared by the minister – Amanda Vanstone was shocked when first confronted by the 4 reams she had to sign.

    but his legacy is also a watertight Migration Act – such as Division IA on ‘safe third countries” is an example :

    S91 is worth a read, to see all the “to remove any doubt” statements, and the complete trampling of human rights and the Australian legal system it entails. It is ironic that Ruddock’s obsessions give the current government the black letter law that only a very brave High Court could overturn.

  2. Ducky

    The polls are currently status quo. I daresay that the govt will take a hit due to the uncertainty with the asylum seekers going to Malaysia

  3. [Seems like the 60/40s have disappeared.]

    There was only ever one.

    56-44 to the Coalition is well and truly rusted on…

    But for Frank and the others it’s 50/50 😆

  4. Glen,

    So you agree the trend is back to Labor.

    I remember another Opposition Leader that had an insurmountable lead and was done ‘very slowly”.

    One Tony Abbott.
    There’s only One Tony Abbott.

  5. [GhostWhoVotes

    Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    There were 1144 voters surveyed between 5th-7th August.

    I wonder if polling took placed when the injuction was lodged ?

  6. [truly rusted on…]
    describes the consistent 52%+ disapproval of abbott, whilst i suspect the high negatives for JG are soft numbers

  7. [Noni is twice the woman that O’Dwyer is!]
    Wrong comparison. Noni and O are not in the same universe. Am hoping for Vogons to pick up O.

  8. [So you agree the trend is back to Labor.]

    That 61/39 was a fluke. It’s not a trend back to Labor if all the polls are between 55-45 and 58-42 😆

    I know you’re trying to find something to hold onto but I’m afraid not.

  9. [mollarch I hang my head in shame as a former teacher of Kelly O’Dwyer #qanda
    3 minutes ago
    Retweeted by AshGhebranious]

  10. With only a 12 point 2PP lead. I imagine there are quite a few in the Liberal party tonight who are crying their eyes out knowing that they’ve lost the next election and the one after that, most likely. 100+ seats to Labor! 👿

  11. Kelly O’Dwyer just made up some opposition policy on the run. She said that the opposition wouldn’t send people to Malaysia.

    Tony Abbott has not definitively ruled out retaining the Malaysian solution.

  12. The Abbott bounce from clearing out worked – things stayed level. once he comes back and starts carping about how the world is about to end people are going to get sick of the tool. Especially with Hockey talking tough and incoherently about how we need to cut gov spending to get back into surplus during GFC2 – at some point they are going to have to have their numbers checked and they’ll be a mile out. Carbon pricing legislation will be through within a few months – this will be a defeat for abbott, and his pledge to rescind the legislation will not be supported by business groups once the legislation is through. Turnbull is getting ready to move and there will be more destabilisation before the year is out.

  13. [I daresay that the govt will take a hit due to the uncertainty with the asylum seekers going to Malaysia]

    Yep, for sure.

  14. 55/57 to 45/43.

    The only hope is the time factor. Two years is ages. But when time is your main positive, it’s basically suggesting that your only chance is an Opposition implosion.

    It can happen, but it’s unlikely.

  15. [mollarch Julie Mitchell
    by StGusface
    I hang my head in shame as a former teacher of Kelly O’Dwyer #qanda
    5 minutes ago ]

    love this tweet

  16. [For you Libs, It’s slip sliding away. The nearer your destination you know it’s sliding away.]

    I have to admire your ‘fools’ courage GG but you and I both know (2006-2007) the longer the polls stay at 55-45 + the harder it will be for Ms Gillard to turn it around.

  17. [ Especially with Hockey talking tough and incoherently about how we need to cut gov spending to get back into surplus during GFC2]

    nah, Hockey has moved on from the fear of GFC2 to the wing of KFC2

  18. O’Dwyer is just plain irritating.

    If she ever wants to get in a leadership position of the Liberal party she needs to go to “don’t be bloody irritating” school.

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