The ghost with the most reports this fortnight’s Newspoll very much maintains the status quo: two-party steady on 56-44, primary votes of 29 per cent Labor (steady), 47 per cent Coalition (steady) and 12 per cent Greens (down one), personal ratings of 33 per cent (up one) approval and 58 per cent disapproval (down one) for Julia Gillard and 39 per cent and 52 per cent (both steady) for Tony Abbott, and preferred prime minister at 39 per cent for Gillard and 40 per cent for Abbott (both down one). UPDATE: Tables here.
Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, their lead now out to 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition gained a point to 50 per cent, with Labor down one to 30 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Essential also crafted a series of questions to make a statement, as it does from time to time: a quiz question to expose a misapprehension (has the number of boat arrivals increased over the past year?), and the same attitudinal question on either side to show how it affects public opinion. The reach of the misapprehension in this case proved quite remarkable: 62 per cent believed boat arrivals had increased, against only 7 per cent who correctly answered that they had fallen. However, it occurs to me that some may simply be misjudging the time frame since the onset of the escalation which began in late 2009. Nonetheless, the clarification elicited a 10 point cut in the number professing themselves very concerned about boat arrivals, to 33 per cent.
[Two years according to Joe on lateline the other night. 115 workers every week for two years is quite a lot of natural (*cough*) attrition.]
Almost 3 workers every business hour of the week…. very “natural” indeed
[Julia Gillard’s Carbon Tax: Support 38% (+1), Oppose 56 (-2)
Repealing the Carbon Tax: Support 45% (-3) Oppose 48 (+3)]
If you are against something, why wouldn’t you want it repealed?
Glen
Presumably you are a fan of the sitcom Goodnight Sweetheart (sorry if you have already discussed this – if so I missed it). I never watched it myself, but it does sound interesting. Do you know if it is still running in Australia anywhere?
[If you are against something, why wouldn’t you want it repealed?]
My guess is that a portion of people would understand the complexities of repeal and another portion wouldn’t know what ‘repeal’ means.
dave@3348,
Some time ago I read that you could judge a civilisation by the largest types of buildings they constructed.
eg.
Egyptians-pyramids
Romans-ampitheatres
Middle ages- cathedrals
The world today-Banks
Says a lot about what we hold sacred don’t you think..
Gary
If you’re a conservative, you’ll oppose radical change, but once the radical change has taken place, you’ll defend that change against the next radical change. Hope that makes sense
[My guess is that a portion of people would understand the complexities of repeal and another portion wouldn’t know what ‘repeal’ means.]
Sounds like a good guess.
[If you’re a conservative, you’ll oppose radical change, but once the radical change has taken place, you’ll defend that change against the next radical change. Hope that makes sense]
I think the government is banking on that being the case.
That Carbon Tax repeal quesiton was conducted before last night’s developments.
Expect the oppose number to go much higher and the support number to go much lower in the coming weeks
Fresh from the High Court (lost).
Not a great time to be bowling up bold submissions to a Court:
(a) straight after it has had three days of chaplaincy programs argument; and
(b) time set aside for writing judgments in outstanding cases will be eaten into by the asylum seekers argument.
The Court adjourned until 22 August at 2.15pm which is when the asylum seekers argument presumably commences.
Gusface & George:
But, but, but…..they’re only public servants – it’s not like they’re real people like those who work in mining and small business. 😉
Unbelieveable hypocrisy from Joe, Tony & the coalition.
Gary
That’s the nature of conservatism.
It’s the neoconservative fringe that’s opposed to change of all kinds.
[If you’re a conservative, you’ll oppose radical change, but once the radical change has taken place, you’ll defend that change against the next radical change. Hope that makes sense]
spur, it makes perfectly good sense. In fact that could be the problem for Abbott at the next election. He will be the one propsing the radical changes, not Gillard. Rescind the CT and the mining tax, scrap the NBN etc.
And expect the numbers to go higher once people have the compensation in their pockets. Having said that it may not necessarily change people views regarding trust of the PM.
12,000 public servants might save you $1 billion per year. $66 billion to go.
Are the 12000 public servants that are to be sacked, going to be dragooned in Abbott’s 15000 strong standing Green Army ? That will be a huge saving.
Hockey will need to get his hands on some of that fast diminishing Helium so he can inflate the Magic Pudding that way everyone will get a piece of pie.
think big
fatty is already doing it in nsw
pretty shut down recruitment
his next aim is to slash conditions
grrrrrrrrr
Gary 3347,
I made myself a promise I am not going to make any comment on polls for a while re voter intentions and 2PP. At the moment it just seems like groundhog day here every time polls come out especially with some of the, shall we say, gloating. So I will stay away from comment on those stats.
However with regard to individual policy questions such as that asked by Morgan regarding the Malaysia policy I find that result very interesting.
Essential had it going pretty much opposite to this one.
I have wondered for a while on individual policy issue questions whether the fact essential respondents are ” volunteers ” so to speak and perhaps more tuned in politically compared to the “conscripts ” used in other polling may skew some results and not really show what the great umwashed masses out there really think.
Hope that makes some sense.
I have no idea just a thought.
[Having said that it may not necessarily change people views regarding trust of the PM]
The big question is how many trust Abbott?
No doubt much in that arunta. I’m not anti capitalist by any means and believe money can be a good servant, but a terrible master.
I’m a social democrat – a capitalist with a conscious if you like. Much of what poses as capitalism these days is not in fact capitalism to my mind anyway.
Managerial types mainly call the shots and get away with it. Exceptions like the packers, reinharts etc but most of the managers are not rich until they have been around a while.
Other exceptions are entrepreneurs, tech geeks etc who build stuff from scratch.
BTW – your board name – did you serve on the HMAS Arunta ? Wasn’t it also the name of an aboriginal clan etc ?
BH
No probs – over 200 gums on our block. Nice fresh air.
In hospital nurses doused in heavy scent drove me crazy. Then they reprimanded me for “shallow breathing”. I wanted to say “Look, just go away and I’ll be fine” 😆
billy@3366
Does that figure also include the public servants that are going to be cut in BOF’s budget mentioned yesterday.
It seems cutting public service jobs the neocon answer for all things budgetary..and still the fools vote for them.
Will they never learn..neocons are funded by the big end of town..obscene profits is their business, large or huge profits don’t cut it anymore..ask any banker.
[I have wondered for a while on individual policy issue questions whether the fact essential respondents are ” volunteers ” so to speak and perhaps more tuned in politically compared to the “conscripts ” used in other polling may skew some results and not really show what the great umwashed masses out there really think.]
A very plausable explanation IMHO.
I know the polls say otherwise at the moment, but I think the ALP are sitting on the winning ticket.
It’s just a matter of prosecuting the case (Gillard has the ability, although a lot depends on Swan).
spur212
I like your optimism
spur
same as victoria 🙂
spur Labor are in trouble if they are relying on Swan.
As long as people end up respecting the PM I do not care if they like or love her at all.
If you are loved then I really think you have made no hard decisions at all and once the punters fall out of love with you they fall very quickly and hard.
I will take respect, even grudging respect, any day.
[spur Labor are in trouble if they are relying on Swan.]
not as much as the fibs relying on Hockey
😉
Doyley
Agreed.
DavidWH
What Gus said … 🙂
wonder if there will be a shadow cabinet reshuffle soon?
[I made myself a promise I am not going to make any comment on polls for a while re voter intentions and 2PP. At the moment it just seems like groundhog day here every time polls come out especially with some of the, shall we say, gloating. So I will stay away from comment on those stats. ]
doyley – I’m trying to avoid them as well. Check out the piece that Ad Astra has on his site about media/polling and which comes first.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2011/08/08/Does-the-media-reflect-public-opinion-or-create-it.aspx
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/08/08/newspoll-56-44-to-coalition-2/comment-page-68/#comment-977706
Nonsense – Governments around the world judge Swan by his achievements which are solid and there for all to see.
School taunting by the conservatives in Australia are seen as nonsense by Finance Ministers around the world.
Well there is that too gusface and spur. Bl##dy terrible lost of politicians we have at present.
sorry lost should be lot
New thread.
[Do you know if it is still running in Australia anywhere?]
Darn I think it used to be on ‘our’ ABC but not sure if they are still showing re-runs of Goodnight Sweetheart.
Which one are the Libs going to relying, the cat strangler is not acceptable to the mad right-wing mouth frothers that make up the majority of the Coalition.
Swan is a Messiah compared to any in the current bunch on the opposition benches.
Dave@3370,
No didn’t serve but the father of a good friend did, I liked the stories he told about her , especially how she was sold for scrap but sank when being towed instead.
He spoke about her (the ship)as if she had a life and persnality.
By the way I don’t know why they refer to ships as female ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-12/abbott27s-razor-gang-makes-no-apologies/2836876
Nice point made here by Public Sector Union.
[Meanwhile, the Community and Public Sector Union’s Nadine Flood says it is offensive for Mr Abbot to suggest cutting thousands of public sector jobs will not affect the quality of services.
“The Coalition is strident in their calls for no jobs to be lost due to a carbon tax but is quite happy to threaten thousands of public servants with the axe just to score a cheap political point,” she said.
“If someone suggested slashing 1,000 jobs in Joe Hockey’s electorate he’d be up in arms, but apparently if they’re public sector jobs they don’t count.”]
[Darn I think it used to be on ‘our’ ABC but not sure if they are still showing re-runs of Goodnight Sweetheart.]
Thanks Glen. I’ll keep my eyes open for it. If you come across it anywhere can you please mention it on PB.
Gary@3352:
[If you are against something, why wouldn’t you want it repealed?]
Because some of the people who voted for repealing carbon tax confused repeal (after the next election, should TA win govt) with “repeal” by the PM (that is, abandon it now before it is voted into law).