The ghost with the most reports this fortnight’s Newspoll very much maintains the status quo: two-party steady on 56-44, primary votes of 29 per cent Labor (steady), 47 per cent Coalition (steady) and 12 per cent Greens (down one), personal ratings of 33 per cent (up one) approval and 58 per cent disapproval (down one) for Julia Gillard and 39 per cent and 52 per cent (both steady) for Tony Abbott, and preferred prime minister at 39 per cent for Gillard and 40 per cent for Abbott (both down one). UPDATE: Tables here.
Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, their lead now out to 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition gained a point to 50 per cent, with Labor down one to 30 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Essential also crafted a series of questions to make a statement, as it does from time to time: a quiz question to expose a misapprehension (has the number of boat arrivals increased over the past year?), and the same attitudinal question on either side to show how it affects public opinion. The reach of the misapprehension in this case proved quite remarkable: 62 per cent believed boat arrivals had increased, against only 7 per cent who correctly answered that they had fallen. However, it occurs to me that some may simply be misjudging the time frame since the onset of the escalation which began in late 2009. Nonetheless, the clarification elicited a 10 point cut in the number professing themselves very concerned about boat arrivals, to 33 per cent.
Victoria @ 3195
But aren’t the government trying to talk tough and humane at the same time?
This is a mess that this government has created for itself. And since 2009, they have been trying to get out of it.
Gary
[It will if the Malaysian solution is given a chance to work and is successful.]
I don’t think so. It certainly won’t win back the progressive vote. ‘Success’ I assume for Labor hopefuls is to ‘Stop the boats!’, but that will be only because we have repudiated our human rights agreements and closed our borders to asylum seekers arriving by boat, thus condemning them to indefinite misery. If that is ‘success’ then I will still be celebrating by voting informal in the HoR and for the Greens upstairs.
bbp
Seriously, there are so many matters that need our attention. Far too much focus has been given to an issue which is a problem for many countries. Thousands of people have drowned off the coast of Italy this year, fleeing Libya and Tunisia. Do you ever see it on the front pages of our papers?
Those that survive the journey have made their way to Italy. Thousands of them. Italy are in the economic doldrums. They can ill afford to handle the influx of these refugees. Yet here in Australia we focus on this relatively small problem for us. Fed up really.
[It will if the Malaysian solution is given a chance to work and is successful.]
By the very nature of the Malaysian solution, the government has made a rod for it’s own back. Even if it does stop the boats, every trip up in Malaysia will be pounced upon.
[Methinks, it is because it brings polticial discomfiture to your side of politics that you would like to see it drop beneath the radar.]
Tell us blackburnpseph, which is your side of politics?
Victoria @ 3203
Again, you are trying to deflect the issue for your own ends. The boats coming from Indonesia are our problem so the focus will be on them. In human terms, the Italians have a much larger problem but whilst it cannot be ignored, it is not in our backyard and well out of the control of the Australian government – the government that we elect.
[I see that there would need to be a change of gears before the election and that they would need to switch to “you are stuck with it, punish them” or hark back to the broken promise.]
Do you think that by the time of the next election, when most people are being financially supported by the government and are realising the sky actually hasn’t fallen in, are going to buy the ‘punish’ argument? Surely that argument loses something when you’re promising to keep it.
[Tell us blackburnpseph, which is your side of politics?]
George, you can put me on any side you wish to.
blackburpseph
[By the very nature of the Malaysian solution, the government has made a rod for it’s own back. Even if it does stop the boats, every trip up in Malaysia will be pounced upon.]
I agree. I think the government will be caned repeatedly. And again after the 800 have been renditioned and we start on more of the Pacific solution.
Hopefully the likes of Amnesty, D Manne, J Burnside et al wll keep on keeping on as long as the government trashes our our human rights record.
bbp
You are missing the point. No matter what each side of politics does, it will not solve the problem. Unless you mistakenly believe that by sending them to Nauru, it will stop the boats?
[By the very nature of the Malaysian solution, the government has made a rod for it’s own back. Even if it does stop the boats, every trip up in Malaysia will be pounced upon.]
We know what the media is like. That will be the case for the first few trips. After awhile they. their readership and their organisations will get sick of it, particulalrly if nothing substantial happens.
Gary @ 3207
I remember reading when the GST came in that most governments that had introduced a GST or VAT feel at the following election because it was unpopular. In Canada, that was definitely the case. It will depend on how smooth the implementation is, how the rest of the economy is travelling at the time. If the economy was not travelling well, it would be one more factor to increase the discontent.
or as Abbott said this morning, turn the boats back!!
[ Even if it does stop the boats, every trip up in Malaysia will be pounced upon.
]
same as everything, so why worry,
[or as Abbott said this morning, turn the boats back!!]
vic
Did Abbott REALLY say that?
[Tell us blackburnpseph, which is your side of politics?
George, you can put me on any side you wish to.]
blackburn, we both know that unless you’ve changed in recent years.
[George, you can put me on any side you wish to.]
You are the one who brought up a “side” – why does it have to do with a “side” of politics? Victoria and others are putting forward a valid argument, you are trying to make out Labor supporters don’t wish to discuss it, which is BS in my opinion.
I’m a Labor supporter and a member. For the record I would be happy to see AS processed here. BUT the rules are never the same for the “other side” of politics and hence it’s “do as I say not as I do” when the opposition opens it’s mouth. That’s putting aside the fact that what Labor is implementing is not the same as what the Libs have done/propose to do – that’s just a copout to divert the argument.
Victoria
How do you explain that in the latter years of the Howard government the numbers fell sharply away to almost nothing (I think 6 in one year, 50 in another) but by 2010 that number had increased to some 6800?
The boats were effectively stopped – the means may not have been palatable but the hard fact was they were effectively stopped until the Rudd Government lost control.
[I remember reading when the GST came in that most governments that had introduced a GST or VAT feel at the following election because it was unpopular. In Canada, that was definitely the case. It will depend on how smooth the implementation is, how the rest of the economy is travelling at the time. If the economy was not travelling well, it would be one more factor to increase the discontent.]
News out of New Zealand is interesting on this. Most businesses were against it before the introduction, now most are in favour.
BK
I was listening to sports radio station SEN. The 7.00 news replayed Abbott’s comments that he hae made on their sister station MTR (Macquarie radio)
[The boats were effectively stopped]
No they weren’t
Gary @ 3216
Thank you for having taken notice over the years. Not that change can ever be ruled out however.
vic
If it wasn’t Abbott it would be unbelievable!
bbp
Do you seriously believe sending the asylum seekers to Nauru will stop the boats again? If so, why? What is the difference if they are sent to CI, Manus Island or Nauru. They all eventually got resettled. Please explain your reasoning
[blackburpseph
By the very nature of the Malaysian solution, the government has made a rod for it’s own back. Even if it does stop the boats, every trip up in Malaysia will be pounced upon.
I agree. I think the government will be caned repeatedly. And again after the 800 have been renditioned and we start on more of the Pacific solution.
Hopefully the likes of Amnesty, D Manne, J Burnside et al wll keep on keeping on as long as the government trashes our our human rights record.]
You need to retune your TV, you are watching an alternative universe.
[The boats were effectively stopped – the means may not have been palatable but the hard fact was they were effectively stopped until the Rudd Government lost control.]
So what you are saying is that the end justifies the means? If so, if the Malaysian solution works you should be in favour of that too.
BK
Hearing that cretin first thing in the morning, made me very grumpy!
[The Housing Minister, Grant Shapps, was tightening the law to make sure that even if a rioter was convicted of a crime outside their borough they could lose their council home, something that is not possible at the moment.
”Criminal or antisocial behaviour in the local ]
what a shocking state of affairs so now do they live on the street, does this mean their parents and sibling are also thrown out.
Do they all have to live on the street, then what brilliant idea thats the best way to create more disunity and discontent how clever is that.
[Thank you for having taken notice over the years. Not that change can ever be ruled out however.]
Well let me ask. Have you changed your mind?
As soon as Abbott returns from holidays, the tone of the political discourse degenerates again into partisanship & division.
[No they weren’t]
George
1 boat in each of 2002, 2003, 2004
4 in 2005
6 in 2006
5 in 2007
7 in 2008
61 in 2009
134 in 2010
That was from the parliamentary library. I would say 1 boat is ‘effectively stopped’.
It is time the refugee industry got its head out of the sand and advocated sensible positions that would advance human rights rather than get their heads on TV and give them that warm self satisfied feeling of superiority which is only marginally less rational, and less useful than the same feeling derived from empty attendance at a religious house.
[The issue of AS has been a running sore for this government and as much as you would like it to, it will not go away.]
It will if the boats stop coming.
Some interesting propaganda on one of the Sydney radio stations earlier. It quoted the ‘there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead’ line, then hyped up its upcoming songs and said that ‘we won’t break any promises’. Subtle.
bbp
How will sending asylum seekers to Nauru stop the boats?
BBS, what were the numbers of arrivals? No boats, but the number of people on them?
In important interesting news houston is leading arizona 5:1 in the 8th.
WWP
JV is quite right. Unless of course the High Court steps in, and then the Government has the politcial discomfiture of starting again.
Not even Abbott suggests sending AS to Nauru stopped the boats. As he says it takes a raft of policies to do so.
no = not
blackburnpseph, please educate yourself:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/10/19/push-vs-pull-asylum-seeker-numbers-and-statistics/
[Let’s be clear – this is what the Pacific Solution did – it diddled the stats by redefinition. Boats still made the attempt to enter Australia – which is a point worth noting as many of the proponents of Pull Factors cite reducing the risk of death from reducing the number of people attempting the voyage by boat, as one of their key rationales. Yet we know that SIEV(s) 5,7,11 and 12 in 2002 attempted to make the journey and were returned to Indonesia while SIEV(s) 4,6 and 10 actually sank. That was in very late 2001 through late 2002. In 2003 we know that boats were still attempting to make the voyage such as SIEV 14, but were again towed back from whence they came.]
At the Republican debate, the candidates were asked if they would accept a budget deal that cut spending and increased taxes by a 10:1 ratio.
None of the candidates said they would accept such a deal.
That’s the sort of wackaloonery Obama is up against.
[JV is quite right. Unless of course the High Court steps in, and then the Government has the politcial discomfiture of starting again.]
And so does Tone most likely.
Leroy
1 in 2002, and then 53, 15, 11, 60, 148, 161, 2849, 6879 in 2010.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/11/london-riots-davidcameron
the view of a young person, not condoning but we should still listen to what they have to say , so far the tories are not from what i have read any way.
Here’s the Advertiser poll story on the SA poll that was ALP 46 Liberal 54 (the National Party don’t rate in SA).
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/change-makes-no-difference/story-e6frea83-1226113410729
Interesting that the two party preferred in Adelaide Metropolitan areas is now ALP 49 Liberal 51 … that’s where it was at the last state election if memory serves me right
I think the Liberal Party should seriously consider dumping Redmond
[In 2003 we know that boats were still attempting to make the voyage such as SIEV 14, but were again towed back from whence they came.]
Except things have changed now, the Indonesian government has said it will reject any attempt to force boats to return to Indonesia.
So that means a major component of the Pacific ‘solution’ has disintegrated.
George @ 3241
I was quoting boats and people arriving. Yes, some were towed back but the flow was effectively stopped.
[ Yes, some were towed back but the flow was effectively stopped.]
No it wasn’t
bbp
You still have nor answered the question. How will the coalition stop the boats?