The ghost with the most reports this fortnight’s Newspoll very much maintains the status quo: two-party steady on 56-44, primary votes of 29 per cent Labor (steady), 47 per cent Coalition (steady) and 12 per cent Greens (down one), personal ratings of 33 per cent (up one) approval and 58 per cent disapproval (down one) for Julia Gillard and 39 per cent and 52 per cent (both steady) for Tony Abbott, and preferred prime minister at 39 per cent for Gillard and 40 per cent for Abbott (both down one). UPDATE: Tables here.
Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, their lead now out to 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition gained a point to 50 per cent, with Labor down one to 30 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Essential also crafted a series of questions to make a statement, as it does from time to time: a quiz question to expose a misapprehension (has the number of boat arrivals increased over the past year?), and the same attitudinal question on either side to show how it affects public opinion. The reach of the misapprehension in this case proved quite remarkable: 62 per cent believed boat arrivals had increased, against only 7 per cent who correctly answered that they had fallen. However, it occurs to me that some may simply be misjudging the time frame since the onset of the escalation which began in late 2009. Nonetheless, the clarification elicited a 10 point cut in the number professing themselves very concerned about boat arrivals, to 33 per cent.
Lol
[JSTamara @JulieBishopMP U seem 2 forget there was NO GFC when Howard was in Govt so therefore very easy 2 have a surplus ! U dumb Lib! $70B Blackhole
about 2 hours ago in reply to JulieBishopMP]
[Is coffee included?]
As long as there’s no added “bang” 🙂
Regarding France adn Germany, I feel vindicated! PPaul Krugman had a similar conclusion in his blog yesterday: stagnation maybe, but default no way.
[I continue to be frustrated by reporting on financial turmoil that seems determined to portray this as a sovereign debt thing despite lots of contrary evidence. The latest is the talk about France on the brink.
It’s true that some spreads between France and Germany have widened lately. But still, just look at French borrowing costs:]
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/is-france-in-trouble/
If I’m wrong at least I’m in good company 🙂
[Not that we have been programmed of course!]
only from the cradle, mytbw! but I’ve enjoyed the ride regardless of the ups and downs.
george
Is milk classified as “bang”? 🙂
[Is milk classified as “bang”?]
only if the cow was having martinis before it was milked!
Space Kiddets,
if i could tweet i would say with out them Raising THE GST becauce i truly beleive they would, it was rumoured during the election and on their site there was a bit of of chat line where their supports where recommending it there is one thing austl
would not want is a rise in the GST.
we should at least plant the seed, and see if they react
I am still looking for What oz poll was talking about, to Gaffhock re the media enquiry.,
george
😀
Cripes – I agree with Barrie Cassidy! thanks for the link Bludgers.
Socs – The US Government was *spooked* by Wall Street with *Collapse of World Finance* etc in 2008 and Europe went the same way, Too Big To Fail (TBTF).
It became one way capitalism, failure to be propped up by taxpayers – which is still in force.
Thats got to change and it involves the biggest banks, both US & Europe – well those that are left after 2008. Smaller banks – particularly in the US continue to fail week in week out.
The major US Banks still have hugely impaired loans, yet are declaring billions in profit with salary’s back to what they were pre GFC and banking laws have done basically nothing to stop it all happening again.
All of the above have to change. Every captain has to be forced to go down with their ships. That includes shareholders.
More after lunch.
What I find amazing about the Lib’s black-arts economics is that the tougher the global economy gets, and the more fiscally prudent government programs have to be (to make sure they generate jobs and growth in the long run), they seem to keep increasing the level of “savings” and cut-backs in their policy promises all without reason or rhyme. To say the Libs “lack vision” would be the understatement of the century.
sadly one thing i have noticed about the media, BH they say nice things one day and even in the same msm you will see two different stories some times the ed. is good and the paper full of negative stories
do they try to get every one to buy their papers, and listen to the abc.
they still havent fooled me i am looking to at least three to 6 months of just good reporting before i do any of the above
george
What is even more atriking is that they are not in the least bit embarrassed! That is the scary part
my say
This penalty for criminal behaviour, eviction from govt housing, is not a new invention by the Tories, but currently they can only be penalised if they “misbehave” in their local borough:
[The Housing Minister, Grant Shapps, was tightening the law to make sure that even if a rioter was convicted of a crime outside their borough they could lose their council home, something that is not possible at the moment.
”Criminal or antisocial behaviour in the local neighbourhood by a tenant or a member of their family can provide grounds for eviction,” he said. ”The government is looking to strengthen those powers]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/cameron-backs-plan-to-evict-convicted-rioters-20110811-1iow8.html#ixzz1UmAbEUYd
My Say,
For you:
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Is increasing GST is on the Liberal agenda? How else are they going to find $70 bill in cuts AND fund their #magicpudding promises? #auspol
]
Abbott and Hockey et al have been banging on continually about how much effect carbon pricing will have on the cost of living. Hence they are saying prices will rise considerably.
If they reverse the carbon pricing legislation and the tax/pension/cash compensations they must have a viable mechanism to provably reduce the price increases they have sheeted home to the imposition of carbon pricing.
If there is no clawback of pricing equivalent to the reclaimed compensation actions they will be exposed.
1. They will have over-egged the pricing effect
2. It will be their corporate and small business mates who will be proven as having been rapacious
3. There will be a huge electoral backlash
Go ahead and be our guest, Tone.
ShowsOn
Not sure where you got your figures from – Lindsay?
What Australians support in the area of refugees depends entirely on the questions asked.
Amnesty got the opposite or your figure in a Nielsen poll in 2009:
[In 2008 only 3.4% of all the asylum seekers arriving in Australia came by boat, whilst 96.6% arrived by plane.
Of the 1000 participants only one person answered correctly that around 4% arrive by boat. The majority of participants guessed that 80% of asylum seekers arrive in Australia by boat, a figure that is widely off the mark and demonstrates the level of misinformation regarding asylum seekers that has been disseminated throughout the general public
Despite this, 69% of the participants believed that all asylum seekers should have the same rights regardless of how they entered. At present in Australia, those asylum seekers processed on Christmas Island do not have access to the same legal rights as those on the mainland.]
http://www.amnesty.org.au/refugees/comments/21533/
On issues such as this leadership – especially moral leadership – is critical from government.
[Despite this, 69% of the participants believed that all asylum seekers should have the same rights regardless of how they entered. At present in Australia, those asylum seekers processed on Christmas Island do not have access to the same legal rights as those on the mainland.]
This doesn’t tell us what rights respondents feel asylum seekers should have regardless of how they entered. Possibly very few.
Misfit @3130
I was referring to the second Iraq war, part of the justification of which was the deposing of Saddam Hussein and the return of millions of Iraqi refugees to their home country. We have seen a decline in the number Iraqi asylum seekers since 2008. In 2008 Iraq ranked as the top source country but dropped to fourth in 2010 with 20100 claims for asylum worldwide. I’m not saying starting the war was a good thing, I opposed it 2003 and still do now.
In relation to Afghanistan, as I noted 5.3 million Afghan asylum seekers and refugees voluntarily repatriated between 2002 and 2009 with 2 million people going home in the first year alone. It was this that had the most significant impact on the number of boat arrivals to Australia, not TPVs or offshore processing. Starting in 2007 the number of Afghan asylum seekers began to increase again to the point where there were 24800 asylum claims in 2010 but still significantly down on the 54000 claims in 2001.
BK I don’t believe the CPM will be reversed once it is legislated and implemented. If the Coalition manage to form the next government I am not sure how they are going to backflip but I am in no doubt they will have to. Personally I think they would be better off having a policy of a partial reversal which retains most of the compensation measures and makes further increases in the price dependent on global agreements. They could probably do that with a price around $10. They may actually be able to sell that but I can’t see them selling a wind back of compensation once given.
dave
[All of the above have to change. Every captain has to be forced to go down with their ships. That includes shareholders.]
Agreed. My point precisely. Otherwise it is classic moral hazard, and we just get more risky decision making.
The question will be whether anywhere in Europe or North America we find a political leader sufficiently independent of big banks that he will not sell out the public interest to keep them afloat by stuffing taxpayer funds into the holes. There appears to be nobody in sight in the ECB who meets that description.
[Of the 1000 participants only one person answered correctly that around 4% arrive by boat.]
Looks like Poll Bludger readership is lower than we thought.
[Looks like Poll Bludger readership is lower than we thought.]
😆 classic
Laura Tingle in the AFR quotes pollsters saying that the vitriol towards Gillard has dissipated over the last month.
She also says that the Coalition are unsure of their next political move and that Gillard has made a smart move politically by going cautiously on disability reform.
She said that Abbott’s comments yesterday were sooooo July!
spur212
Does Laura say why the vitriol has dissipated?
Victoria
Two reasons:
1. The widening of the government’s agenda
2. People are beginning to accept that she’s going to be there for the long run and that she’s taken most of the stuff that’s been thrown at her on the chin.
Thanks Spur.
Sounds like a fair assessment
DavidWH
I agree that Abbott has really nowhere to go. He has played the wind back card and he is stuck with it.
[1. The widening of the government’s agenda
2. People are beginning to accept that she’s going to be there for the long run and that she’s taken most of the stuff that’s been thrown at her on the chin.]
spur212, as everyone here has been saying for months… stay the course, focus on the implementation and policy frameworks, ignore the slogan bogan
[Two reasons:
1. The widening of the government’s agenda
2. People are beginning to accept that she’s going to be there for the long run and that she’s taken most of the stuff that’s been thrown at her on the chin. ]
That is the clever thing about what she did too. If you’re going to take hits, much better to take them when an election is way off in the future.
george
Although the front pages are still focussed on asylum seekers. Can the govt broaden the agenda if the msm continually narrow the focus?
BK and others above have raised the issue of how the Carbon Tax may be repealed should an Abbott Government come to power.
I had a google to see what I could see about how Labor proposed to ‘rollback’ the GST after it was introduced.
Basically, they couldn’t come with much at all except tying themselves in knots – and even Simon Crean made the statement that it was not possible to ‘unscramble the egg’.
And I think we will all find that once the Carbon Tax is introduced this will be the same, the egg cannot be unscrambled. The politics would need to shift to ‘you can punish the people that brought in this tax that you will be paying forever and ever’ otherwise Tony Abbott and the Libs will be left with egg on their faces trying to untie a knot that is untieable.
[Although the front pages are still focussed on asylum seekers. Can the govt broaden the agenda if the msm continually narrow the focus?]
victoria, any publication that focusses on a small set of issues quickly becomes stale in the eyes of its readership. With AS issue, early days.
Its worth noting that even with the varied questions at that forum last night, not one mentioned asylum seekers.
Victoria
The health, aged care and disability reforms are huge issues that the electorate has a great deal of interest in regardless of the MSM.
According to the Australian Election Survey, Health ranked slightly above the Economy as the most important election issue (although if you combine the 2nd most important issue with the 1st it drops down the list a bit)
Socs, Agree. The only candidate remotely likely to take on Wall Street (and the Fed) is Ron Paul. He is far to much for some and is unlikely to be elected and even if he is would the US system itself allow him to upset powerful vested interest to the extent required.
US voters have for years got to choose which Wall Street team are going to run the place. Apart from that voters role is to be consumers, only now, they are broke and 14 million without jobs. Many with jobs are paid poorly particularly compared to Australia.
In Europe how long will the Germans agree to pick up (or underwrite) the lions share of bills. Maybe Germans rejecting this will bring the EU unstuck ?
As Jeremy Grantham said the other day –
Voters, generations of them are going to have to pay, one way or another. Its a matter of how high the bills get and how much damage is done in the meantime.
[Although the front pages are still focussed on asylum seekers. Can the govt broaden the agenda if the msm continually narrow the focus?]
Victoria
You cannot have it both ways – cheer the government if they believe that they have a success i.e. the Malaysia solution – or – hope that it goes unnoticed if it is not successful.
The issue of AS has been a running sore for this government and as much as you would like it to, it will not go away.
bbp
It is only a sore because the coalition and the msm make it so.
William
[This doesn’t tell us what rights respondents feel asylum seekers should have regardless of how they entered. Possibly very few.]
indeed. I’d like to know more about that poll as to the questions and information given to the respondents, but online research is a bit restricted at the moment as I’m iphoning it at Byron Bay. If there was enough info given first about the discrimination between boat and air arrivals – which I would assume – then the result is interesting.
[The health, aged care and disability reforms are huge issues that the electorate has a great deal of interest in regardless of the MSM. ]
Spur
The whole Health issue has probably gone on to long for anyone to take too much notice of it, and for it to be regarded as a political win for the government. Most people take notice of health when it is a failure of the tangible – trolleys in corridors, hospitals falling down. The default position is that people expect the system to work, they don’t care how it is paid for.
Aged Care will definitely resonate with those people at the various coal faces – the system is complex, hard to understand, and outcomes will take a long while to achieve. Again the focus is usually on the failure of the tangible.
The disability reform is laudable – but the government seems a tad cagey. The problem will be that it will be hugely expensive. I could see that a levy would be the way to pay for it but that seems to be the place that all fear to tread.
[And I think we will all find that once the Carbon Tax is introduced this will be the same, the egg cannot be unscrambled. The politics would need to shift to ‘you can punish the people that brought in this tax that you will be paying forever and ever’ otherwise Tony Abbott and the Libs will be left with egg on their faces trying to untie a knot that is untieable.]
But when, before or after the election?
If after, Tone is going to have to say he will keep something he promised to get rid of. Breaking an election promise after railing against Gillard for doing same? Not a good career move.
If before, why would people change the government if both parties are promising to keep it?
[The issue of AS has been a running sore for this government and as much as you would like it to, it will not go away.]
It will if the Malaysian solution is given a chance to work and is successful.
Victoria
[It is only a sore because the coalition and the msm make it so.]
Into which of those categories to Sarah HY and David Manne fall into?
Methinks, it is because it brings polticial discomfiture to your side of politics that you would like to see it drop beneath the radar. If it brought discomfiture to the Coalition, you would be in there with the mob.
[Its worth noting that even with the varied questions at that forum last night, not one mentioned asylum seekers.]
And that was in WA.
Bbp
The asylum seeker issue has been politicised by all parties. The Greens position is fairyland stuff, and the coalition are blatantly talking tough and humane at the same time which is an absolute joke. Too much attention is given to a policy that should have bi partisan support. I dont like any side of politics’ position on this matter.
I wasn’t paying any attention, but wasn’t the forum supposed to be specifically a forum on carbon pricing, and hence the before and after counts of supporters/opposers/undecideds? I’m sure the questions were vetted to be vaguely on-topic…
Gary @ 3191
You are quite right on both counts. I see that there would need to be a change of gears before the election and that they would need to switch to “you are stuck with it, punish them” or hark back to the broken promise. The Libs can switch the focus and still cause political damage.
[The asylum seeker issue has been politicised by all parties]
So when did politicians not politicise?
jackol
There were many questions off topic. No one asked about asylum seekers.
[The asylum seeker issue has been politicised by all parties. The Greens position is fairyland stuff, and the coalition are blatantly talking tough and humane at the same time which is an absolute joke. Too much attention is given to a policy that should have bi partisan support. I dont like any side of politics’ position on this matter.]
Correct. If one side wants to play politics with it the other really has no option but to act or just lay back and think of England while they get politically shafted.