GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.
The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.
UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.
UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:
In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …
People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.
evan
[And I also defend the right of Glen to offer his opinions, despite the constant abuse he cops from the usual suspects.]
Me too!
[Mytwobobsworth and Vera: Ignore Frank and his band of followers – he’s not the moderator, even though he likes to think he is!
And I also defend the right of Glen to offer his opinions, despite the constant abuse he cops from the usual suspects.]
How do you marry a statement like that with one like this?
[evan14
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 9:56 am | Permalink
My Say: Glen, TP and I are discussing the issues!
We talk about actual psephology, the point of Poll Bludger!]
Where’s the psephology in the first statement?
Just catching up:
[ grantplant
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:51 am | Permalink
Yesterday I noticed Generic person saying that the only answer for the US and European debt problems was austere spending cuts and no tax rises.
This of course shows he, and the Tea Party terrorists, are no students of history. Go back and check out what was done from 1929 until 1933 GP. Mind you, the same of course could be said of certain Governments and banks. They too have failed Economic History 101.]
Yes, he’s obviously a real fan of Herbert Hoover. Such people have learned absolutely nothing from history and are thus condemned to repeat it.
Which is what the US is currently doing.
[GIANT cigarette maker British American Tobacco says the federal government’s plain-packaging timetable is ”basically impossible” and will cause a national tobacco shortage]
Geez, eh? Now wouldn’t that upset government, eh! I can hear Nicola Roxon weeping already … NOT.
And health services-they’ll be broken hearted, and all those who’ve given up & don’t want to be tempted … and all those who never smoked and are sick of passive smoking and smokers’ smell …
evan and mtbw
Opinions are one thing and are welcome, but boring repetition of statements from Lib blogs without entering into any meaningful discussion are not very useful and can be deliberately provocative.
lizzie
[Yet they want “wages flexibility”-that’s the only time flexibility is mentioned]
Yes but that “flexibility” is a rigid unidirectional sort of flex, as in “Attention Workers. Commence Flex ! http://tiny.cc/cjnbv
poroti
Yes, one way flexibility 😆
OzPol Tragic
[GIANT cigarette maker British American Tobacco says the federal government’s plain-packaging timetable is ”basically impossible” and will cause a national tobacco shortage]
The guy deserves some sort of award for being able to say that with a straight face.
evan14
[My Say: Glen, TP and I are discussing the issues!
We talk about actual psephology, the point of Poll Bludger!
Where’s the psephology in the first statement?]
Perhaps they meant phrenology ? 🙂
[The point I was making, and I only singled you out as you contribute more than any other Tory, is that you make no secret of your allegiance & I say again, that’s fine with me.]
Fair cop Charlton and you’re right I make no secret that I’m a centre-right voter.
[So glad to see you around more often your colour and flair lift the spirit of this site!]
+1 for Vera
[Glen — why don’t you just change ypur name to WC? That way we can guess where you’re coming from????]
Jen perhaps but it would seem quite egotistical to use Winston Chruchill in full.
Actually I’ve come up with the best name ever….Thomas E. Dewey.
My comments will be in moderation until the new change 😆
Greensborough Growler @ 1044:
Posted Thursday, August 4, 2011 at 9:47 pm
[Charlton,
Thanks for the considerd contribution.
Basically, i agree with your post.
As a Labor member and supporter, I was peeved at the overthrow of Rudd. He’d done nothing in my personal estimation to deserve such a fate. It rankled, it hurt and the audience of allegedly pro Labor people that were prepared to jump on his leadership grave really disappointed me.
More importantly, the rise of Gillard seemed to signal a retreat from what I always believed to be the Labor reason for exisitence, reform.
The election campaign last year was a disgrace.
However, given the ability of Gillard to negotiate an accord with the Independents, I was prepared to give her a go. The subsequent announcement that 2011 was a year of action has been well borne out and any real Labor supporter will see that the light is flickering again on that distant hill.
Labor may go down in 2013. However, I’ll be more proud of this Government for their reformist zealotry than any since early Hawke and probably Whitlam.]
Thanks for your compliment & response.
Incidentally I’ve never been a member of the ALP but have for my adult life supported it.
I, like you, felt for Kevin Rudd & his family when he was replaced in such unprecedented circumstances, the only other example in recent memory is John Gorton who gave himself the chop when the numbers were even.
If the election campaign had been run more professionally, I think Labor would have enjoyed a working majority. But the ‘Real Julia,’ the Oakes’ leaks and other campaign bungles resulted in what we have now.
I think the PM is a reformist at heart but would not have been able to proceed but for the hung parliament. I postulate that she not only out-foxed Abbott in the negotiations but also the Greens & the Independents by agreeing to certain demands and then telling her cabinet colleagues, who would have been nervous about reversing the pre-election carbon tax promise, that if we don’t proceed, we lose government. Her time with Slater & Gordon would have been a great help in the negotiation process, coupled with her innate charm.
As for the 2013 election, I remain confident Labor will win providing the carbon tax implementation does not create unemployment and increase the cost of living over and above the compensation package, which in some instances is fairly modest.
Abbott to a great extent has painted himself into a corner by placing almost all his political eggs in one basket. This on the one hand is a gutsy move; on the other, a tactic which could backfire bigtime. I hope it’s the latter.
Anyway, I’ve enjoyed our civil exchange.
Tim Pawlenty quotes Glen on global warming:
[“The weight of the evidence is that most of it, maybe all of it, is because of natural causes,”]
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60671.html
let me guess GP has never experienced a recesion
gusface 1172:
[Posted Thursday, August 4, 2011 at 11:54 pm
charlton
1. its thomson
2. stop trying to beatup a mashup
thanks]
Thanks for pointing out my spelling mistake but can we come to a compromise?
I won’t call you for spelling “is” as “iz” if you don’t correct me for spelling “Thomson” as “Thompson.”
That’s fair, iz it not(?).
poroti
The tobacco makers wouldn’t be feeling the love if they read the comments after that article.
“Moderates have a quiet and mysterious life in Abbott’s Libs”
Yes, I know this is Grattan, but it does try to answer the question “where are the moderates hiding, and how much influence do they have?”
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/moderates-have-a-quiet-and-mysterious-life-in-abbotts-libs-20110804-1idei.html#ixzz1U8dplnVX
[Her time with Slater & Gordon would have been a great help in the negotiation process, coupled with her innate charm.]
An absolutely fantastic training ground for a young female Labor pollie, Charlton.
The media says JG has no vision. I see it writ large in her desire that every kid has an education that is genuine and not a waste of time.
[let me guess GP has never experienced a recesion]
G.P. said in this very forum at in Feb 2009 that he hoped Australia experienced its deepest and longest recession on record (that would’ve created the highest unemployment, biggest hit to GDP, and most misery and pain) simply so that politicians would never revert to stimulus spending to counteract future economic down turns.
He was perfectly happy seeing a massive drop in living standards simply so he would have something to support his political ideology and inability to comprehend basic economics.
He was one of those crazy Tea Party-like people that was extremely upset that the Government’s stimulus spending kept Australia out of recession.
Shows I believe that natural causes are at least partly to blame but not the only reason.
[BH @ 1306:
Charlton@1025 and GG@1044 – many thanks for those posts.]
Thanks.
Having gone through all of today’s posts and the doom and gloom of the global economy I have come to the opinion that I am upset most by the venerable Fred Nile and his unadulterated blackmailing attempt to get O’Farrell to scrap school ethics classes.
His dissing of the ethics classes was medieval and disgraceful.
The man is an anachronistic, dangerous waste of space.
BK
Still amazes me that the Christian Democrats wins Upper House seats in NSW 😆
[evan14
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 5:18 pm | Permalink
Mytwobobsworth and Vera: Ignore Frank and his band of followers – he’s not the moderator, even though he likes to think he is!
And I also defend the right of Glen to offer his opinions, despite the constant abuse he cops from the usual suspects.
]
Evsn,
That is slanderious – I made no such demands towards Vera.
You are beneath comntempt.
On the ABC radio this morning Grattan made light of Minchin’s criticisms of Turnbull. Tame, calm & dismissive.
We know what the commentary would be like if the critique was from a former ALP minister bagging the PM or Rudd.
Has Turnbull replied to Minchin’s critique?
Speaking of being beneath contempt.
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-05/27nazi-philosophy27-behind-ethics-classes3a-nile/2826280]
Your welcome Charlton – both of you put it better than I could.
BK – OH and I pretty upset with that too and as Socrates said earlier – Nile took ‘Socrates’ name in vain to support his awful stance on this.
This is the 21st century and ethics has its place in kids’ education. The outside influences on kids are so dominant nowdays that parents need every bit of help they can get. Nile is doing our kids a disservice.
Frank
Unless I am much mistaken you are NOT the person Vera was referring too.
Evan – This time Frank was right and you should apologize to Frank.
Lizzie wrote previously about Myers being No. 1 in poor service. And why wouldn’t they be no.1?
If we go back to the Myers float it my memory is Myers was offloaded after being stripped of assets, staff reduced and stock inventories reduced. The monies were then sent offshore and supposedly no taxes were paid. I think a hedge fund was involved.
What I have always wondered is who despite Gittens, etc in the SMH and I think many advisers in the press recommending against Myers shares who bought the bloody things which are now worth about half the floated price and which have declined ever since listing? Not many small informed small investors I wouldn’t think.I have always had the idea that vast amounts were spent by Super funds on Myer shares . After all these people are interchangeable.They go to the same clubs and probably went to the same school and have most likely worked together at some stage.Why would anyone with more intelligence than used engine oil have bought Myers shares when retail was going down and the advice was not to. Because its not their bloody money. Who would know. You cannot find out what shares your Super is invested in because it is not legislated that you be informed or even have the right to be informed. But I think that the relationship between the buyers and sellers needs to be looked at if the Super funds invested in large amounts of Myers shares.And not only Myers shares but all of their placements. The amount of money going into Aust. Super each week is massive and the persons who decide where these funds go need to be above reproach.
[Gary
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 5:23 pm | Permalink
Mytwobobsworth and Vera: Ignore Frank and his band of followers – he’s not the moderator, even though he likes to think he is!
And I also defend the right of Glen to offer his opinions, despite the constant abuse he cops from the usual suspects.
How do you marry a statement like that with one like this?
evan14
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 9:56 am | Permalink
My Say: Glen, TP and I are discussing the issues!
We talk about actual psephology, the point of Poll Bludger!
Where’s the psephology in the first statement?
]
Especially as I never made such demands to William re Vera being banned.
While there may be meta discussion – it is all in the end related to the topic at hand.
[1775
daretotread
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 6:14 pm | Permalink
Frank
Unless I am much mistaken you are NOT the person Vera was referring too.
Evan – This time Frank was right and you should apologize to Frank.
]
I seem to recall that it might have been everone’s favourite Conservativev elephant – but I could be wrong.
[“The Australian government should not be imposing a carbon tax on our economy at this time.”]
OK Julie Bishop when is the correct time? But good to see that you support a Carbon Tax at some time in the future. 😉
ShowsOn@1768
I am surprised that people are surprised at the depths GP would go too.
After all – he is a tory, thats the way they go about things.
[1779
ruawake
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 6:16 pm | Permalink
“The Australian government should not be imposing a carbon tax on our economy at this time.”
OK Julie Bishop when is the correct time? But good to see that you support a Carbon Tax at some time in the future.
]
Sopeaking of Julie bishop – I was about to go to bed at 4am and decided to take the scanner with me -lo and behold I was monitoring the STW 9 Frewquency used for the earpieces which was up and rnning for a live cross to Mesma – it seems that Karl and Lisa wsere actually telling her what the questions they were going to ask her – the first being unaccompanied Minors etc. pity the channel with the raw audo wasn’t running so I couldn’t hear the answerts she gave.
But suffice to say – I wonder if Govt MP’salso get a heads up on the questions ?
Rua may know 🙂
Is this a script for a new comedy show?
[TONY JONES:
OK. Alright. The other aspect of this is that the direct action plan is aiming to get 15 million tonnes of carbon abatement from new tree plantations. The forestry industry says that’ll require planting trees on 600,000 hectares of cleared agricultural land. Have you cleared that with the National Party?
JOE HOCKEY:
No, we’ve said it’s not necessarily cleared agricultural land.
TONY JONES:
What sort of land will it be?
JOE HOCKEY:
It can be – well, it can be …
TONY JONES:
That’s what the forest industry has said.
JOE HOCKEY:
Yeah, it can be less quality land than good agricultural land. I mean, you can buy, you know, hundreds of thousands of acres west of Moree and I wouldn’t describe that as prime agricultural land. But there is a capacity to do it.
TONY JONES:
So that’s where the green army will be planting the 20 million trees?
JOE HOCKEY:
Well, the green army will be part of that process]
http://joehockey.com/mediahub/transcriptDetail.aspx?prID=1270
[After all – he is a tory, thats the way they go about things.]
That’s like saying all lefties are bleeding hearts who can’t manage money?
dave we should not tar all with the same brush.
[Frank
Unless I am much mistaken you are NOT the person Vera was referring too.
Evan – This time Frank was right and you should apologize to Frank.]
Fools rush in where angels fear to go !
[But suffice to say – I wonder if Govt MP’salso get a heads up on the questions ?]
On soft TV shows the pollies usually write the questions.
The Green Army and Direct Action have 5% of the efficacy of the BER and HIS.
[that Finns is a real ladies’ dolphin]
Amigo Vera/BH, that rumour is not true, they dont have me, just the Finns
Finns,
Check your DM on Twitter it re a certain post and one of ther Amigos.
[Earlier, Ms Bishop dropped a pair of her shoes in at local shoe repairer Scott Mackenzie’s shop in the inner Perth suburb of Subiaco and discussed the impact of the carbon tax on his business.]
Is Bluey still doing stunt watch or have his tentacles been overwhelmed?
[1788
ruawake
Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 6:30 pm | Permalink
Earlier, Ms Bishop dropped a pair of her shoes in at local shoe repairer Scott Mackenzie’s shop in the inner Perth suburb of Subiaco and discussed the impact of the carbon tax on his business.
Is Bluey still doing stunt watch or have his tentacles been overwhelmed?
]
I believe bluey and his handler are on holidays atm.
Oh and she must be knackered after getting up at 3am for that live cross 🙂
Has Julie Bishop ever had a pair of shoes repaired before today?
[Frank
Unless I am much mistaken you are NOT the person Vera was referring too.
Evan – This time Frank was right and you should apologize to Frank.]
Daretotread/Frank, I’m not surprised. Evan14 has attacked people here over issues of race, and has even threatened them if you read between the lines. Poor effort on his part
Blood is difficult to remove from a stilletto …
ruawake
[Is this a script for a new comedy show?]
and
[The forestry industry says that’ll require planting trees on 600,000 hectares of cleared agricultural land. Have you cleared that with the National Party?]
It would be funny except it is a sad fraud,another, from the LNP. A guy from Men of the Trees I heard at a lecture a while back explained the sort of places and what regions were suitable for tree planting as proposed by the LNP. He said the only reasonable places to do it where in the wheatbelt regions. He also reckoned that his back of envelope calculations came up with about 3/4 of our wheatbelt regions being planted in trees. I’m sure the Nationals will be all for it ! Remember this guy was from Men of the Trees so it was not as if he was a clear felling forester.
[Evan14 has attacked people here over issues of race, and has even threatened them if you read between the lines.]
George, can you please point out where this has happened, or suggest some search terms I might use to locate such comments?
[George, can you please point out where this has happened, or suggest some search terms I might use to locate such comments?]
You have to read between the lines on some of his posts – I don’t have them handy, but in the past he has, especially when confronted on some issues. Not directly to me.
[Have you cleared that with the National Party?]
Another hint that the Libs/Nats don’t really believe that Direct Action will happen – or else they aren’t paying attention to policy detail. Choose which to believe 🙂
Glen? Winston? Thomas E. Dewey?
The Liberal quota on PB has increased by at least 50% 😀
I googled
Governor of New York and almost president aye.
Paper made a boo boo!
[DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.]
😯