GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.
The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.
UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.
UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:
In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …
People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.
Well the polls have solidified at 55-45 Coalition ahead.
Carbon Tax Up 2 = MOE
All is happy in the land of Milk and Tone.
Bilbo, you got a sense of humour!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@Glen i think you need to TONE down your exuberant chatter.
finns
if kev can get a new aorta, bilbo can get a new funny bone
😀
Poss called this months ago IIRC.
Early days, early days.
Glen
aamoi
How often do you ahem, milk Tone?
Abbott will be far from happy – the precious is so close but so far away!
Gussy
Tone is the honey 🙂
Sweet but sticky and attracts insects 😆
Espexially as he resigned from the Libs because of Tone.
Methinks he has a secret mancrush on his budgies 🙂
The carbon tax figures are being compared to the poll reported here:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/galaxy-poll-shows-queensland-voters-most-likely-to-vote-against-federal-governments-planned-carbon-tax/story-e6freoof-1226047996623
The old 35 Support figure isn’t in that story though.
BTW Bilbo, i like Japan very much.
In fact, we were booked to go to Tohoku – Sendai, Mitsushima etc. Well, someone organised the Earthquake and Tsunami and stopped me going there.
sloppy on lateline
Finns,
Knowing the welcome for dolphins such as yourself in parts of Japan, the cancellation was probably fortunate.
When I like a country, I too repeatedly bark “SHAME!” at it as it pulls thousands of bodies from the rubble of its ruined towns and cities.
@Finns, I was saving up to goto Japan later this year/early next year, because friends went there in Nov last year, they had an awesome time.
Since the Tsunami/Earthquake, we are now looking at China at end of 2012, one of the friends went to Japan has been to China a few times.
In Queensland the primaries are ALP 32 L/NP 54 GRN 8, giving a 2PP of ALP 41 L/NP 59.
Finns
“I like chinese, their funny little knees, their cute and cuddly, and ready to please”
Monty Python
Pass 🙁
So even with Abbott out of the picture for just under a week, Gillard still cant peg back a few points.
Hmm, I wonder if therre are similar stories for other states ?
The trifecta…
Actually Rummel, it has been noted before that Abbott’s ratings have tended to go up when he’s “out of the picture”.
That’s the enda Swanny 😆
It was commisioned by a group with a vested interest.
Bilbo, you talking about Nanjing then?
Really, lucky he is out of the country for another two weeks.
big call
🙁
Off to Shanghai and Beijing in a few months – can’t wait 🙂
I am surprised the primary vote is higher in QLD than nationally.
True but Frank Galaxy do make reliable polls and this ones a biggun 🙂
When Galaxy says your this far behind you usually are…
The coalition vote appears to increase when Tone is out of the media. At least that’s been the experience in the past.
Nup
Fukushima
Then Fess i say Tone have another week off 😆
Finns clearly missed his calling as a grief counsellor.
Fess
poll done while Abbott was here
“It was commisioned by a group with a vested interest.”
We that also discounts the IPCC, every green NGO, the greens under Bob Brown from ever commenting on CC
Diog, as usual i flunked.
dio
just for you
With primaries ALP 31, LNP 48, G 13, should the TPP be closer to 45:55, given Newspoll was 44:56 with primaries ALP 29, LNP 47, G 13?
Higher than the Twin Tower then.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/executive-style/saudi-billionaire-to-build-worlds-tallest-tower-20110803-1iapt.html#ixzz1Ty9Uyofa
56:44 two years out from an election
Not good, but certainly able to be turned around.
Anyone who thinks the election will be more than 52:48 either way is backing a long shot.
GhostWhoVotes,
My wife keeps hounding me to tell you ‘your cool’.
She likes the mysterious types, apparently.
Ha
ye of little faith
labor to win 100 seats
😉
Ghost
We like you too much to call Ghostbusters 🙂
Finns
The Bin Laden Group are the largest building contractors in Saudi. They disowned Osama a long time ago. He was a lazy sod when he worked for them anyway.
Bullbutter Gussy
Stop the Hubris! 😆
Diog, who are “they”?
I’m sure Liberals are saying the same thing Glen.
glen
even when staring down the barrel, I will be forever the optimist
🙂
Onya Gus, we won in NSW didnt we?