Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

  1. Drake,
    The Bludgers will always be here for you, no matter how arduous the road to wellness. It will be a tough fight, but remember, you are worth it.

    Let me make you a cup of chamomile tea.

  2. And Glen/Thomas/John,
    You can have the couch over there. Just relax back and watch the pocket-watch swing to and fro, to and fro, to and fro…

  3. dave

    [charlton

    So why don’t you play along for a while?

    Who says I’m not ?]

    Just feeling I had buy the tone of some of your posts tonight, unless I’m mixing you up with some else which is quite possible.

    Anyway, I’m doing a Samuel Pepys & I wish you well.

  4. The meme is slowly changing –

    Hit by the debt boomerang

    Peter Hartcher

    It remains to be seen whether this will be the GFC mark II but the reality is Australia is well placed to cope.

    …At its worst point, Australia’s cumulative federal net debt is blowing out to a projected $107 billion, or 7 per cent of GDP, in 2011-12.

    This is remarkably modest by international comparison. The US economist David Hale observed: “Most other G-20 governments are deeply envious of Australia’s fiscal situation.”

    And Australia’s banks are sound and profitable. None of this happened by accident. Australia’s politics worked in creating the good policy that has made Australia a standout economy in the world. The Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello governments collectively spent 23 years reforming the economy, a bipartisan project of opening it to the world, making it more competitive, improving its systems and institutions. Why didn’t any Australian banks collapse? Two central reasons are that Keating imposed the Four Pillars policy, and Costello created the new prudential regulator, APRA.

    If the current financial fears turn into GFC mark II, Australia has tremendous firepower to bring to bear on any slump. With official interest rates at 4.75 per cent, the Reserve Bank has lots of scope to cut rates to stimulate growth. And with the federal government in healthy fiscal shape, the government can use its spending power to do the same. Why? Because the central bank and the government have been repairing their policy armoury in the past couple of years.

    Today’s financial tremor should shake the Gillard government and the Abbott opposition into a heightened state of alert. Crisis can strike at any moment. Our politicians need to run responsible politics so that the country has good policy for when it is most needed. Both sides need to put populism aside in the national interest.

    The Gillard government needs to press ahead with a serious reform agenda and look to new ways of consolidating the federal budget. And the Abbott opposition needs to stop scaring the pants off the public.

    The scaremongering over the carbon tax has become so reckless that even the Reserve Bank governor alluded to it obliquely last week, referring to the “bitter” political debate as a factor damaging confidence in the economy. Politics is sometimes just silly. But days like yesterday remind us that it is also deeply serious.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/hit-by-the-debt-boomerang-20110805-1ifh5.html#ixzz1UAFBlCzA

  5. charlton
    Posted Saturday, August 6, 2011 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Just feeling I had buy the tone of some of your posts tonight,

    I have *feelings* about the tone of your posts on an ongoing basis.

  6. Frank,
    No way.
    and you too can end up like this:,

    I have qualifications, I studied for hard for during my morning break to pass that test and as soon as I send the $14.95 to East Bumcrack Cyber College of Organic Therapies and Wood Carving I can download my certificate. If I pay $19.95 I can even print it in any colour I like and I think that is what I will do, in orange.

    I can’t charge for my services until I print out my certificate, and anyway, the printer is out of paper, so PB is getting free sample of my skills.

    Don’t look a gift-dragon in the mouth.

  7. oops forgot quotes.
    Frank,

    and you too can end up like this:,

    No way.
    I have qualifications, I studied for hard for during my morning break to pass that test and as soon as I send the $14.95 to East Bumcrack Cyber College of Organic Therapies and Wood Carving I can download my certificate. If I pay $19.95 I can even print it in any colour I like and I think that is what I will do, in orange.

    I can’t charge for my services until I print out my certificate, and anyway, the printer is out of paper, so PB is getting free sample of my skills.

    Don’t look a gift-dragon in the mouth.

  8. Mini Flash Crash Following CDU Statement Eurozone Leaders Have Excluded Boosting Volume Of EFSF Sends ES Down 30 Points

    After soaring by over a hundred points, the DJIA subsequently plunged in a flash crash type move after Reuters carried headlines saying that the CDU budget expert said that the Eurozone leaders have clearly excluded boosting the volume of the EFSF (and the plunge has nothing to do with any ridiculous rumor of an S&P downgrade – the S&P would be sent into exile if it dared to defy Obama at this point in his debt ceiling hike victory lap).

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mini-flash-crash-following-cdu-statement-eurozone-leaders-have-excluded-boosting-volume-efsf-se

  9. charlton

    [I can’t recall whether is was an off the cuff remark but the dry-ice falls on foot line cut to the bone in my view.]
    It was an off the cuff remark and yes it really did cut through in a way even the flattest of flat earthers could see.

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