GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.
The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.
UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.
UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:
In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …
People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.
More Malcolm and Less Tony = Coalition 2pp going Up and Up and Up and Up 😆
[Tone is the honey
Sweet but sticky and attracts insects ]
Am feeling very nauseous. 🙁
[Glen
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:47 pm | Permalink
Ha
ye of little faith
labor to win 100 seats
Bullbutter Gussy
Stop the Hubris!
]
Ahem:
[Glen
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:20 pm | Permalink
Well the polls have solidified at 55-45 Coalition ahead.
Carbon Tax Up 2 = MOE
All is happy in the land of Milk and Tone.
]
and more pointedly:
[Glen
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
In Queensland the primaries are ALP 32 L/NP 54 GRN 8, giving a 2PP of ALP 41 L/NP 59.
That’s the enda Swanny
]
You were saying ? 🙂
[Onya Gus, we won in NSW didnt we?]
many a time padawan, many a time
Shhhhh now
uncle tom- oops uncle joe is on
[even when staring down the barrel, I will be forever the optimist]
“Shoot straight you bastards…don’t make a mess of it.”
Now that’s what I call courage and I salute yours Gussy very commendable 🙂
Finns
The Bin Laden family (who own the company). They paid him to eff off. That’s where he got all his money from.
Talking about ill-gotten money, someone is gonna be plenty upset by this!
[A record £300m haul of cocaine has been seized and six alleged members of an international drug gang arrested, officials have said.
A total of 1.2 tonnes of cocaine was found hidden inside a 65ft pleasure cruiser at Southampton docks in June.]
Gus:
What are the dates this poll was taken?
[You were saying ?]
On those numbers he is gone Franky…nothing over the top with those posts like.
george,
I have been lucky enough to have a couple of extended stays in Beijing.
My one and only tip, eat as much as you can as often as you can. Food does not get any better.
[confessions
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
Gus:
What are the dates this poll was taken?
]
As Ghost posted on the other thread.
[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:16 pm | Permalink
The Galaxy poll is of 2000 voters and was taken between the 27th of July and Monday.
]
And Tone was still in the Country 🙂
It’s going to come tumbling down like a house of cards when the public finally wakes up to Abbott. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/tony-abbott-makes-a-habit-of-flipping/story-e6frerdf-1226106158058
Diog, not all of “they” in the Bin Laden Clan disowned Osama. A number of them supported him.
In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election.
In other words, they will sell, sell, sell USD:
[China to continue diversifying forex investments, Updated: 2011-08-03 10:10, (Xinhua) – BEIJING – China will continue to diversify its foreign currency investments and strengthen risk management to minimize the impact of the global financial market’s fluctuations on China, according to a statement on the website of the People’s Bank of China.]
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-08/03/content_13039712.htm
finns
name names
😉
[The poll was paid for by the Australian Coal Association]
Hahahahahaha
wow, Sydney more ferral against Gillard then QLD. Vic must be holding the house of cards up
[In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election.]
The Liberal Member for Kingsford Smith has the call 😆
Of course never going to happen but hey…
Let’s see:
1. ‘people skills’
2. ‘problem with women’
3. ‘unelectable’
4. ‘negative’
5. ‘party of no’
6. ‘no ideas’
7. ‘impossible to believe’
Result: 56-44 to the coalition.
Labor: excuses excuses.
Thinking Jen’s GetUp!-ABC pitch will hit the 3000-vote mark sometime tomorrow … http://suggest.getup.org.au/forums/60819-campaign-ideas/suggestions/1684971-petition-for-abc-to-return-to-its-charter Currently rated 10th…
[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:53 pm | Permalink
In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election.
]
And who are most influenced by 2GB and The Daily TError.
glen
just played with antonys thingy
100 seats is not out the Q
but for the wrong side
🙁
[The Galaxy poll is of 2000 voters and was taken between the 27th of July and Monday. ]
Thanks Frank.
[wow, Sydney more ferral against Gillard then QLD. Vic must be holding the house of cards up]
Don’t forget the Socialist Republic of Van Diemen’s Land Rummel 😆
That surely is propping up Ms Gillard.
[name names]
Gus, Mohammed, Mohammed and Mohammed.
[The poll was paid for by the Australian Coal Association]
And support for a carbon price is up on the last time.
[glen
just played with antonys thingy
100 seats is not out the Q
but for the wrong side]
Oh Gussy I doubt the Tories could swing it that big. Even Howard couldnt in 1996. Would be a big swing if these numbers never changed though…
glen
if that happened i would migrate to sweden
🙁
Is Jones making Joe look like a complete dill?
[And who are most influenced by 2GB and The Daily TError.]
And apart from Sydney the most biased media in the English-speaking world. The Coalition couldn’t survive without the life support.
[72
gusface
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:56 pm | Permalink
glen
just played with antonys thingy
100 seats is not out the Q
but for the wrong side
]
Just remember that Rudd had similar stratidpherical figures so early in the Election Cycle.
And we all know what happened next.
Now who of the 3 stoges will play the parts of TP, Evan 14 etc when the inevitable happens mere moths from an electiom ? 🙂
albatross
nup
Joe handles that really well, he dont need a helping hand
Dio,
for your next soiree…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFPrmgy7SmQ
frank
not wavering
just saving glen the time to gloat
[if that happened i would migrate to sweden]
Gus, the Au Pair is good.
No 81
Abbott has been killing it for a while now Frank. Keep up the delusion.
“Don’t forget the Socialist Republic of Van Diemen’s Land Rummel
That surely is propping up Ms Gillard.”
lol yes, though i count Tas as being the first state to fall completely to the greens.
Gussy the ‘Tories’ are in min govt in Sweden…
Fredrik Reinfeldt and his The Alliance grouping…
Ghost says they’re comparing this poll with the one in April/May because it was commissioned by the Australian Coal Association.
I’m very interested to see the wording of the carbon tax question because the last Galaxy poll on the carbon tax on July 11 was Support 29, Oppose 60. If it’s the same wording as July 11th, that’s a rise of 8 in Support and a fall of 5 in Oppose …
[Abbott has been killing it for a while now Frank. Keep up the delusion.]
I knew GP would turn up!
13% swings in NSW = one happy GP 😆
[Gussy the ‘Tories’ are in min govt in Sweden…]
ah, so they are illegitimate too…
[86
Generic Person
Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink
No 81
Abbott has been killing it for a while now Frank. Keep up the delusion.
]
so was Ridd between 2007 and early 2010.
And we all know what happened next.
[Gussy the ‘Tories’ are in min govt in Sweden…]
i knew they needed me there
😉
No 90
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JjQGVtZrE0
🙂
[ah, so they are illegitimate too…]
Nah the Moderate Party (largest grouping) actually increased their vote at the 2010 election. Hardly illegitimate…but I do recall Ms Gillard knocking off a few votes from Labor’s total in 2007 like.
No 94
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfmB-8onoMo
🙂
glen
gp is happy cos the dishwashing machine has been fixed
🙂
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
What the point of repeated Pressers by the Cops where nothing new CAN be said or added #mosman
4 seconds ago
[gp is happy cos the dishwashing machine has been fixed]
or the Restorantee is very quiet tonight
[Nah the Moderate Party (largest grouping) actually increased their vote at the 2010 election]
Yeah that’s an interesting point. A majority of the parliamentary Liberal Party supports the Government’s ETS policy, but just can’t say so because they are lead by a denialist leader.