Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Kersebleptes @ 1644:

    In my view you made a mistake in your previous post & rather than taking action to redress it you compounded it by your post at 1644.

    I can’t speak for the person who was on the receiving end of both posts, but if I were you I think an apology is in order, which may clear the air.

  2. poroti

    Hockey brushed off the ‘cleared’ bit. So in addition to the $750,000 p.a. to pay people to plant trees, it would cost how much to clear the land to make it suitable for planting? Joe did not dispute the 600,000 figure, so lets be generous $100 a hectare. Thats at least another $60 million. Then Joe and Tony have to buy the land.

    How do they fund buying a brown coal power station and converting it to gas with only $3.2 billion in the kitty? Wallies 🙁

  3. Evan and his fellow travellers are mind numbingly repetitive bores, but I wouldn’t call him a racist, George.

  4. hello from home,
    general consensuses from eastern aus, is that abbott saying no all the time may be losing it’s shine

  5. Lizzie
    Most right wingers I speak to are darn sure Rabbott ain’t going to take any action.
    Something really screwy going on when Coalition supporters can bag the PM over pricing carbon comments but think it is OK for Rabbott to spruik
    an environmental policy that he will not implement.
    There is an open acceptance that he is lying.

  6. Hi Joe

    I suspected that was the reason he took a break. Also, I recall one of his last stunts/visits on the “fear & loathing” tour, was a no show for the media. Probably hoping to get some renewed interest on his return.

  7. George, I don’t really know how fair it is of you to accuse someone of being racist and threatening on the basis of lines that you’ve read between. I’ve accused Evan of being a pain in the arse on occasion, as some commenters are over-keen to remind him, but your specific accusations don’t strike me as being his style.

  8. Evan and his fellow travellers are mind numbingly repetitive bores, but I wouldn’t call him a racist, George.

    As opposed to the monotonous perpetual movements of the Gillard-grip club.

    I understand that it must be painfully embarrassing when the person you support is only just more popular than a dumped leader of the opposition, and is herself a failure as leader, and the wrecker of the Labor party in the eyes of the public. Only the ‘grip’ can sustain you all through such times.

    Don’t worry Vera, better to live free and an outcast than on your knees and a slave to the fantasy ‘gillard is wonderful’ world within PB.

  9. Evan

    I wasn’t talking about Frank He hasn’t told me to go and find somewhere else to blog

    He has told me to go vote for the Libs a few times though 😉

    Frank’s an institution here at PB

    We don’t often see eye to eye but we do have a few mutual PB buddies

  10. [vera
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 6:56 pm | Permalink
    Glen? Winston? Thomas E. Dewey?

    The Liberal quota on PB has increased by at least 50%]

    Hey, whadya have to do to be included around here???

    Can everyone please ensure that they include me when throwing darts at liberals???

    😉

  11. [GeorgeMonbiot How #TopGear faked its test of electric cars: bit.ly/oFRuRT BBC keeps letting it trash producer guidelines. Why?
    26 minutes ago ]

  12. @TP/1810,

    Who dumped who? maybe look a year ago when Liberal Party dumped Malcom on a verge of a break through deal?

  13. William, happy to withdraw them if you feel that way – others here have given unfair appraisal of posts where the intent was assumed or inferred without any evidence. So it’s my opinion, which I could be wrong on, so I withdraw it – but that’s the way I read some of those posts.

    Also, I have been threatened here by one particular poster, a few years back, but there was no retribution at the time. I can’t seem to find the post, but centaur at the time was also posting during the thread. I can provide details to you via email if required.

  14. [Thomas E. Dewey:

    I’m confused.

    Were you formerly Winston S. Churchill?]

    Formally Winston S. Churchill now I’m Dewey 🙂

  15. [Dewey]

    Stop defaming Dewey. He was organising knowledge well before the nappy boy Google came along farq everything up 👿

  16. [1811 Dee
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 7:05 pm | Permalink
    Jones interview with Sloppy worked on the assumption that the Green Army participants were going to get
    paid.]

    Dee are they volunteers

  17. [1824

    my say

    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    Formally Winston S. Churchill now I’m Dewey

    are you glen then
    ]

    If so it is rather apt with Rummel, Mod Lib and Him being Hewy, Louey & Dewey 🙂

  18. Glen
    I’ll see your
    [We need not be afraid of the future, for the future will be in our own hands.]
    and raise you with
    [We shall need courage, energy and determination, but above all, we shall need faith. ?faith in ourselves, in our communities and in our country.]

  19. zoidlord

    [@Dee/1816,

    Electric Cars are not the way to go, Hydro is.]

    Wot hydro-electric cars or the Joh Bjelke Petersen water fueled ones ? Which reminds me of but one of Kiwi Joh’s great quotes
    [The greatest thing that could happen to the state and nation is when we get rid of all the media … then we could live in peace and tranquillity and no one would know anything.]

  20. [Dee are they volunteers]

    Tony Abbott reckons they will be leaders and worth $50k pa. Oh I forgot it costs money to house, feed and water 50,000 people out planting trees. Or do they plant them online using Turnbull’s not quite an NBN?

  21. [Thomas E. Dewey:

    I’m confused.

    Were you formerly Winston S. Churchill?]

    Glen, go back to Glen.

    I cant call Thomas E. Dewey or Winston S. Churchill the Resident Village Idiot of PB, can I now. 😛

  22. I see the nutter-truckers site has 24 new comments today, so far, including by those by Showson et al.

    Is the tank running dry? 🙂

  23. [vera
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 7:20 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib

    I just threw a dart your way!
    Feel better now?]

    Thanks Vera!

    The only thing worse than being insulted is being ignored!!!

    😉

  24. [george

    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    Is the tank running dry?

    24 comments is a blockbuster day of comments for them, isn’t it Puff?
    ]
    and they’re redrafting the petiition too 🙂

    Though the bit about for or 5 ovals sounds like BS.

  25. Dee@1807

    Lizzie
    Most right wingers I speak to are darn sure Rabbott ain’t going to take any action.
    Something really screwy going on when Coalition supporters can bag the PM over pricing carbon comments but think it is OK for Rabbott to spruik
    an environmental policy that he will not implement.
    There is an open acceptance that he is lying.

    Dee, I really doubt they would see any inconsistency at all in their approach.

    Thats what tories are like.

  26. well if you read the all the posts , you wouldnt bother coming here what a crabby lot.of peoeple, who got out of the wrong side of the bed.

    in the meantime the markets are crashing, and who knows what next mr kohler just said its all italys fault when i thought it was the us who was at fault.

    can i suggest 10 min no posting go back 4 pages read the lot see how childish it all looks

  27. My Say
    [1811 Dee
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 7:05 pm | Permalink
    Jones interview with Sloppy worked on the assumption that the Green Army participants were going to get
    paid.

    Dee are they volunteers]
    IMO, if anything is done in regards to Direct Action, the Green Army co-ordinators/leaders will get paid but it will effectively be a program for the unemployed.

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