The first poll of federal voting intention conducted since the carbon tax announcement finds the government’s carbon tax announcement bounce going in the wrong direction. A Roy Morgan phone poll of 1083 voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, it is in fact the worst result the government has recorded, with a Coalition two-party lead of 60-40 on the more generally reliable measure that allocates minor party preferences as per the previous election (although Morgan as usual headlines with the respondent-allocated result, which has it at 60.5-39.5). The Coalition’s primary vote is approaching double Labor’s – 52.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent – with the Greens on 10.5 per cent.
Morgan has also simultaneously published its latest face-to-face polling results, which actually show a slight improvement in Labor’s standing: primary vote up two points to 33.5 per cent, Coalition down one to 48 per cent, Greens steady on 11.5 per cent, Coalition two-party lead down from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5 (58.5-41.5 to 56-44 on the respondent-allocated measure). However, since this was conducted on the weekend and the carbon tax announcement was made on Sunday, this offers the government no consolation whatsoever when taken together with the phone poll.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has published further results on the carbon tax, which add further to the government’s misery: 37 per cent support the government’s legislation, steady on six weeks ago, while opposition has risen five points to 58 per cent. Skepticism about climate change itself has scaled new heights: 37 per cent of “all people aged 14+” now believe concerns are exaggerated, which is up five points on six weeks ago and compares with just 13 per cent when the question was first asked in April 2006. Support for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government is up three points to 48 per cent and opposition is steady on 45 per cent. As in Morgan’s last such poll, some of the subsequent questions have a very strong whiff of push-polling about them.
smithe
It would be great to see Roger Ailes get caught up in all this.
Thinking of those Morgan figures, I have to say that I don’t particularly appreciate them. Not at all.
I don’t mind being in the trenches, but it gets a bit hard when you have to dig the trench a bit deeper every time a set of poll figures comes out.
I notice that even Glen and ML are a bit bored with it the how hohumment nature of yet another set of bad, badder baddest polls.
Despite the most horrendous polling figures in the history of Morgan, I still have more than a smidgen of hope.
This hope is based on the health of the members of the current parliament. So, I do hope they are exercising, eating omega 3, their greens, their fruit and concentrated anti-oxidants.
Never in the entire history of Australia has so much depended on a heart beat.
[If numerous examples start occuring after the carbon tax is operating of families being worse off of multiple business closures then labor is stuffed.]
The whole merit of a market price is that politicians can’t screw things up. You create the market, sell the permits, then the polluters figure out what to do next to either pay the permit price or invest in tech to reduce their pollution (and thus) permit liability.
[Until we actually see the economy operating with the carbon price and the associated tax cuts and compensation we won’t really know how the voting public view it.]
The second half of next year will feature a rapid investment increase as trade exposed polluters start ‘investing’ their free permits in new tech.
Look at this stuff
[“What’s happened over the last couple of years is that there’s been a level of uncertainty around carbon policy, climate change policy, in Australia,” he told ABC News Online.
“It’s had the impact on the investment on the market, or the investment in new power generation infrastructure to put a hold on it.”
Mr Raine is expecting investment in power generation to rebound back to $3.5 billion a year by 2015 if the carbon pricing scheme makes it through Parliament.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-15/power-plant-builder-backs-carbon-tax/2796520
[No, WorkChoices was introduced, no talking.
The polls went bad after WorkChoices came in and numerous examples kept on appearing of workers getting ripped off in every which way. Tone’s response a bad boss is better than no boss did not help.
If numerous examples start occuring after the carbon tax is operating of families being worse off of multiple business closures then labor is stuffed.
Until we actually see the economy operating with the carbon price and the associated tax cuts and compensation we won’t really know how the voting public view it.]
Exactly, there are huge differences here.
But ltep is not known for his positivity — he will always find a negative for Labor.
[My mum comments: David Jones has gone upmarket, you can’t find anyone to serve you and they’re range has shrunk – no wonder they’re not doing so well.
I think she’s closer to the truth than some commentators.]
It’s known as “The Cost Accounting Death Spiral”.
Checking back here occasionally after last Fed election shows little new except for the polls now at NSW Labor levels after 50-50 at that time. But there’s the same venom towards all non-hard-Left bloggers rather than soul searching about how come it just gets worse and worse for Labor. I got jumped by the Gillard groupies last year when I suggested that Gillard was pretty dumb and that the deal with the Greens was unnecessary poison that would come back to bite Labor – how say ye now? Rudd couldn’t sell his policies and Gillard can’t sell hers. Nobody is listening whereas a different leader would have a chance because he/she would kick-off without baggage and could stand up to the Greens who are toxic for the majority of the electorate. Where are the Greens gonna go – to the Libs? Calling for a new leader … otherwise it’s Abbott in 2 years or less, like it or not. The pending Abbott implosion has been heralded now for 18 months but no sign of it and no sign of a Turnbull takeover. Abbott in this environment is teflon-coated and could get away with declaring that the earth is flat.
the Telegraph is not a balanced newspaper
Glen, do you live in Sydney?
If the terrorgraf was any more balanced it’d tip over.
I have said it before, for a coalition adherent, sanity and reason are optional extras.
Sorry Glen — sadly, it appears you have been brainwashed by Abbott’s relentless conditioning. A year ago I enjoyed your posts. Now ….?
Nice term, BK 🙂
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Murdoch was reported to have said: “Nepotism, what nepotism, it is only appropriate Queen Elizabeth runs my companies” #newscorpse
7 seconds ago
BK
[The MSM, to use the sporting analogy, are not the umpires. They are the runners.]
They should have no involvement in the game at all, as umpires, runners or players.
Their role in sport should be the same as it is in every other aspect of life, to report on what is going on on the field.
From a distance.
cud
For you.
http://blog.accountingcoach.com/what-is-the-death-spiral/
BK at 51
As long as the public razor is kept busy lopping News Corpse heads, I’ll be a happy little citizen.
[Abbott in this environment is teflon-coated and could get away with declaring that the earth is flat.]
And why do you think that is?
Jesus H. Christ could lead the ALP at the moment and the MSM and their ABC would still be boosting Abbott and questioning Christ’s links with Satan.
We can only hope that people, eventually, see through the utter crap and misinformation peddled by vested interests, otherwise this country will get the government it deserves:
SerfChoices II, Single Media Ownership, Puritanism, Anti-Science book burnings, Anti-development etc etc
[Rudd couldn’t sell his policies and Gillard can’t sell hers. ]
Screw selling policies. What’s far better than that is actually getting stuff legislated and operating, and telling people about all the benefits once it is actually done.
Jen from previous thread –
Just reversion to *real* glen.
Em Tasol.
As per my comments a coupla threads ago, William, the closer the carbon tax gets the worse it gets for Labor.
If trend is confirmed by Neilsen then imo it will all be over.
Speaking as an ageing ex Labor hack cannot envisage union movement trading the serious risk of an Abbott controlled Senate for a Green carbon tax that is going to make no difference whatsoever to global emissions. This lunacy might come to a rapid end, and not before time imo.
[the Telegraph is not a balanced newspaper
Glen, do you live in Sydney?]
Melbourne Ports
[I think she’s closer to the truth than some commentators.]
Cud, Pascoe nails it.
[Meanwhile, around the corner from Zahra’s Sydney headquarters, there was Zara – the international value frock shop. It’s just the Spanish equivalent of Sportsgirl, but better done. And while Paul Zahra was despairing over a dramatic drop in foot traffic and sales, the H-less Zara had women queuing outside for the chance to buy something, anything.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail-war-zahra-v-zara-zara-winning-20110715-1hhak.html#ixzz1SAOlSq9g
The view from an alternate reality…
http://www.matthaydenblog.com/2011/07/murdoch-hater-stephen-mayne-on-abc-news.html
In 2 years’ time the PM could recommend that Bryce’s term as GG be renewed. I’m sure Lizzie would be accommodating. Then, in the event of an Abbott govt that year, by the time Bryce had done her 5 years, Howie will be too old to assume such an office.
BW
Probably against guidelines. Is there an international flavour to Bluey?D oes Brookes resigning in UK equal a Bluey qualified stunt?
Darren #63 – instead of hoping (still/again) a change of leader would break the Libs’ momentum. Gillard had a very supportive press at the start of her leadership and destroyed that credit by poor announcements and decisions. Face it – she’s hopeless.
darren at 63:
[SerfChoices II, Single Media Ownership, Puritanism, Anti-Science book burnings, Anti-development etc etc]
Keating has a wonderul word for Abbott’s fundamental political philosophy: Obscurantism.
Says it all.
The tendancy will be to not believe polls like this, viewing Labor at a extreme negative. Especially when it is difficult to find any particular reason, in our minds, that deserve such a bad position. I would expect negative polls based on the Gillard legitimacy and performance issue, but it hasn’t been as bad to deserve polls of this nature. SO what is going on?
We who follow closely the daily comings and goings of politics probably form a more balanced understanding at where the parties should be, however the general public are nowhere near as attentive, if at all. Therefore we should not assume that terrible polls like these are not reflective of voter view. Whatever it is they are ‘seeing’ in Gillard live, the MSM and the rest of Labor they are really hating it.
The worst thing about this poll is that it Could indeed be correct as it fits with a continuing downward trend that we have been seeing. Or it might be just a poll at the exteme end of MOE and that state of play is still around 57/58.
I imagine Liberal supporters during the 2007 campaign likewise couldn’t believe Rudd Labor’s figures and believed that they would reverse and Howard win as always. Likewise they too probably couldn’t see any reason for Howard being on the nose and being voted out. People are starting to think the same way now.
Labor should look at this poll closely, a good sample, a Phone poll and consistent with a trend.
It will take only one more Nielsen/Newspoll poll of 42/58 or worse for all hell to break loose in Labor ranks in my view.
Bluey would have some sympathy for a redhead.
Sjows On:
[Rudd couldn’t sell his policies and Gillard can’t sell hers.
Screw selling policies. What’s far better than that is actually getting stuff legislated and operating, and telling people about all the benefits once it is actually done.]
+1
Labor: 161 bills passed in HoR since last election.
[A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights of July 13/14, 2011 found:
37% (up 5%) of Australians when asked for their view of Global Warming believe “Concerns are exaggerated,” 46% (down 4% from June 2011) say “If we don’t act now it will be too late,” and 14% (down 1%) say “It is already too late.”
58% (up 5%) of Australian electors oppose the Gillard Government’s proposed carbon tax, 37% (unchanged) support the carbon tax legislation and 5% can’t say.
If the carbon tax is introduced Australian electors are split on whether a future Prime Minister Tony Abbott should overturn the carbon tax with 48% (up 3%) supporting Abbott overturning the carbon tax legislation and 45% (unchanged) opposed to Abbott overturning the carbon tax legislation.
]
confessions at 70:
[In 2 years’ time the PM could recommend that Bryce’s term as GG be renewed. I’m sure Lizzie would be accommodating. Then, in the event of an Abbott govt that year, by the time Bryce had done her 5 years, Howie will be too old to assume such an office.]
That’s called forward planning.
Howie did it with the High Court.
[ Rudd couldn’t sell his policies and Gillard can’t sell hers.
Screw selling policies. What’s far better than that is actually getting stuff legislated and operating, and telling people about all the benefits once it is actually done.]
This selling policies meme is a silly one, really.
getting the message out requires a medium to transmit it. A conduit is needed, and for the past 100 years the main conduit has been the media.
The media says people aren’t listening — when in actual fact the MEDIA refuses to listen.
It started with Rudd being ‘boring’. It gave the opposition a chance to steal the air. Since then, the media ckeeps saying you can’t sell, you can’t sell … but who needs to buy? Instead of listening to the message, they concentrate solely on the messenger and superficialities. Thus the govt gets hammered and the opposition escapes scrutiny.
[What’s happened over the last couple of years is that there’s been a level of uncertainty around carbon policy, climate change policy, in Australia,” he told ABC News Online.]
Its been longer than that. NSW labor had a carbon trading scheme going, Hoiwe killed the market for it when he announced his proposed ETS policy.
Back in 97 Hill was going to sign the Kyoto protocol with Howies approval until Howie changed his mind. Howie rode carbon pricing policy in line with his focus group polling on it. If he had been returned in 2007 he would have dropped it saying economic circumstances were not right. Same as Tone would have done in 2010 if he had got in.
And that is why the indies backed Gillard, she said she would bring in a NBN, ETS and reform health amongst other policies. All very tough polies and programs to implement.
Tone said climate change was crap, dial up was good enough and health didn’t need reform. Tone just wanted the indie support so he could call an election to dump all his promises.
One thing tells me JG has been smart by including the taxfree increased taxfree threshhold as well as the compo.
The numbers say the population is split on supporting abbott repealing the Carbon Tax. I told you NEVER get in the way of the punters and a bucket of money.
[Cud, Pascoe nails it.]
Pascoe’s stuff this year has been great.
Just came in on the latest CFMEU advert pushing a carbon price – on Sky. Didn’t see it all, so can’t judge it, but has anyone else seen it?
RNM1953
Bluey was drooling at some of the opportunities o/s, particularly in Tea Party Land. He had a particular yen for Ms Backmann’s oraculations. (Bluey asked me to remind you that o/s is human language. For octopuses there is no o/s. It is the same body of water.)
Incidentally, Bluey reckons that most stunts are about debasing the truth upon which our democracy is based. He reckons we humans should take this a bit more seriously because the future of the planet depends on it. He had a look at today’s Crikey and was shocked to realize that, by 2100, a one-in-one-hundred year heat event will cook every tide pool in Australia. No more Blueys.
Bluey reckons that the sordid reality, the normalcy of lies, the gutter lies, the vicious personal attacks, the casual mistreatment of the truth in Oz is such that enough is too much, already. So, no ‘o/s’ for Bluey.
[That’s called forward planning.
Howie did it with the High Court.]
Indeed.
TLBD
[Bluey would have some sympathy for a redhead.]
Bluey reckons that anything with hair on it anwhere is weird and that when the hair is not blue, that is even weirder.
confessions@70
Maybe Rudd would like to be Head of State.
Isn’t that a totally delicious thought. After a term as GG off to the UN to be Secretary General.
And if abbott gets up in 2013 – he will have *I’m Kevin from Queensland – here to
help* as his boss – the guy he will need to ask for any DD.
Where is Bill Hayden nowadays….
[I imagine Liberal supporters during the 2007 campaign likewise couldn’t believe Rudd Labor’s figures and believed that they would reverse and Howard win as always. ]
My recollection is that Glen and G.P. consigned themselves for most of 2007 that Howard was gone. I think Glen ‘called’ the election in around about June, during the APEC shambles.
[Labor should look at this poll closely, a good sample, a Phone poll and consistent with a trend.
It will take only one more Nielsen/Newspoll poll of 42/58 or worse for all hell to break loose in Labor ranks in my view.]
Don’t think so. The difference is the election isn’t due for 2 years. Have a look at some of Howard’s Newspolls from early 2001, and that was an election year!
[Maybe Rudd would like to be Head of State.]
Rudd can’t be Head of State. He is an Australian who lives in Australia, and he baptised as a Catholic.
It will be very difficult to find any newspaper that is more anti Labor than the Daily Telegraph. e.g. Transport is still a huge issue but you will never hear a single criticism of the present governement. Another example is BoF is introducing his own workchoices but not a single note of disapproval from the DT. If this was Labor the first thing that they would say would be no mandate.
If the Senate blocks legislation and if the PM of the day asks for a DD, the GG would give it, perhaps first testing to see whether an alternative Government would be formed.
Who the GG is would not matter a damn.
I hope these polls spur Abbott on to even more rabid stunting.
The Chinese would never accept as GG:
(1) the ex leader of a country that is in military alliance with the US.
(2) a chap who has called them r*tfuckers.
Next, please.
[Don’t think so. The difference is the election isn’t due for 2 years. Have a look at some of Howard’s Newspolls from early 2001, and that was an election year!]
Exactly.
You can ask Prime Minister Beazely about leading comfortably in polls 6 months before an election and how that worked out for him.
dave:
Not sure I’m on the same page with Rudd as GG. Think I’d prefer Bryce.
Who would have thought?
So soon after the Arab Spring we are witnessing the Murdoch Winter. The dirty, old, digger, dictator, is finally getting his comeuppance.
[Other posters far more intelligent than me advised earlier today that we should take whatever the poll results of Morgan (good, bad or ugly) with a grain of salt.]
I think Morgan actually have the runs on the board at election times to show that their phone polls, given sufficient sample size, are as good as anything out there. Their interpretations of their polls, however, are frequently spurious.
Does anyone know if there is any source that gives a summation of Morgan data through time? Newspoll has this going back to 1984 but Morgan has been polling back longer than that. However Morgan’s website gives only selected polls from 1942, 1970 and 1971 prior to the mid-80s. I’d be interested to put the results coming through from all posters right now in an even longer historical context than the Newspoll data allow.
[This selling policies meme is a silly one, really. ]
Yes! Especially the way its becoming defined as the sole definition of a politician’s worth, particularly in the case of Swan. Being able to sell is useless if you have nothing worth selling in the first place.
Not according to the public for a long while before and now.
I think the need to rationalise history in a way that makes us feel comfortable with our selections now is to say…Rudd…negative, negative something…..and that is why.
It ignores the reality that Rudd was a perfectly good PM going about his business and was uneccessarily despatched.
The entire problem Labor has was created entirely at and after the knifing of Rudd. No knifing of Rudd, Rudd would almost have certainly won that election and we would be travelling on something like normal polls now, around the 50/50 mark as per usual for governments.
Labor is not going to be worthwhile party or an electoral force until it deals with the stupidity of past actions and the handful of people who run the party, apparently. It is not going to improve that much until it deals with the heavy smell that surrounds it now, even though its follows can’t smell what the public do.