Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition

The first poll of federal voting intention conducted since the carbon tax announcement finds the government’s carbon tax announcement bounce going in the wrong direction. A Roy Morgan phone poll of 1083 voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, it is in fact the worst result the government has recorded, with a Coalition two-party lead of 60-40 on the more generally reliable measure that allocates minor party preferences as per the previous election (although Morgan as usual headlines with the respondent-allocated result, which has it at 60.5-39.5). The Coalition’s primary vote is approaching double Labor’s – 52.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent – with the Greens on 10.5 per cent.

Morgan has also simultaneously published its latest face-to-face polling results, which actually show a slight improvement in Labor’s standing: primary vote up two points to 33.5 per cent, Coalition down one to 48 per cent, Greens steady on 11.5 per cent, Coalition two-party lead down from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5 (58.5-41.5 to 56-44 on the respondent-allocated measure). However, since this was conducted on the weekend and the carbon tax announcement was made on Sunday, this offers the government no consolation whatsoever when taken together with the phone poll.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has published further results on the carbon tax, which add further to the government’s misery: 37 per cent support the government’s legislation, steady on six weeks ago, while opposition has risen five points to 58 per cent. Skepticism about climate change itself has scaled new heights: 37 per cent of “all people aged 14+” now believe concerns are exaggerated, which is up five points on six weeks ago and compares with just 13 per cent when the question was first asked in April 2006. Support for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government is up three points to 48 per cent and opposition is steady on 45 per cent. As in Morgan’s last such poll, some of the subsequent questions have a very strong whiff of push-polling about them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,874 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition”

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  1. Open revolt against the Murdoch media empire, in three continents. Great times!

    Parliamentary warrants, FBI investigations, open accusation of naked political agendas from PMs. Make no mistake, Organ, Herald-Sun, and telegraph joiurnos – the organisation you work for is a corrupt sick, rotten borough, bearing no relatio ship to the profession of journalism, and no one at the highest levelswill be pretending otherwise from now on. They’re no lnger intimated.

    You are on the out. blood is in the water. The sharks are circling.

    Its time for the law to progresssively dismantle your disgraceful, criminal media empire.

    Enjoy the weekend!

  4. Thanks castle. Have just read Green’s post, which I do remember reading when he first put it up.

    As Boerwar said, 2015 is getting closer and closer to 2020 and reaching that 5% cut, which will become more and more expensive to achieve the more we close in on the target year.

    But in any case, Abbott’s rhetoric about a DD are just hollow words. Once the CT is in and functioning, and people have their tax cuts, he won’t repeal the legislation.

  6. Gusface

    Good numbers for the Coalition but I for one don’t for a moment believe it will last till the election.

    However one would have to think that the pressure in the PM’s office is building. The troops must be getting nervous.

  11. [7801. Stunt for the Day…
    Wayne Swan saying the Telegraph is not a balanced newspaper. What a dill!
    You know Labor are in trouble when they start attacking the Press]

    Bluey reckons that the first test is to see whether the speaker is trying to tell the truth or is trying to get away with telling a lie, telling a partial lie, framing a lie, etc, etc, etc.

    Bluey’s judgement is that Mr Swan was sincerely telling the truth when he was bagging ‘The Telegraph.’ Bluey had an opportunity to get a free look at ‘The Telegraph’ earlier this week. As expected, he found a sea of negativity about the Labor Government, what it had achieved, and what it was proposing to achieve. It may come as a surprise to Bludgers, but Labor has some fairly important achievements under its belt and the carbon price is a far superior policy mechanism than Mr Abbott’s shocking value-for-money proposition otherwise known as the ‘Direct Action Plan.’

    Be that as it may: Mr Swan was telling the truth. The reality is close enough to the truth so that it is not a stunt. That leaves the Stupid stunt category: was Mr Swan kicking an own goal?

    The question here is, ‘Does Mr Swan have anything to lose by criticising ‘The Telegraph’?’ Might ‘The Telegraph’ suddenly have become more balanced in the absence of Mr Swan’s criticisms? Would it suddenly have become more even-handed? Bluey does not think so.

    That leaves one contingency. Will Mr Swan have further inflamed the ‘The Telegraph’ so that it becomes an even more dishonest and unbalanced critic of the Government?

    Bluey does not think that this is possible

    So, not a stunt.

    Bluey thanks Glen for his nomination and encourages Liberal supporters and National supporters to enter more nominations.

  12. [Steve Annabelle

    Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

    Gusface

    Good numbers for the Coalition but I for one don’t for a moment believe it will last till the election.

    However one would have to think that the pressure in the PM’s office is building. The troops must be getting nervous.
    ]

    No 🙂

  13. [Glen…. you confirm my opinion of you expressed yesterday…just before you scuttled of to ignoranceville… Bet you haven’t bothered to read the FACTUAL links I’ve provided this evening…..

    William…what’s the definition of a Troll again?….]

    One possible definition, better than many I’ve seen proffered elsewhere, is “person who, when confronted with someone who holds opinions they don’t like, whines that the moderator should silence them”.

  14. The Daily Tele talks of people power in urging an early election.

    Yet they vehemently rail against people power where people call for a ban on companies/ advertisers as a way of showing their displeasure.

    It was people power that closed NoTW, the mums utterly disgusted at at NoTW, the mums emailed tweeted the advertisers and said we are not going to buy your products if you advertise in that paper. The advertisers withdrew their ads and NoTW closed.

    News is terrified of people power, it was they rail against GetUp and boycotts. People power shut one newspaper, it can shut others.

  15. Bushfire:

    Thank you for a very detailed reply.

    Of course Labor and the Greens would be mad not to shunt potential coalition govt bills dismantling the CT to as many committees as they can as a delaying tactic. CPRS revenge and all that. 🙂

  16. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Alfred Hitchcock has been sighted in London planning for a remake of his 1940 CLASSIC Rebekah starring Rebekah, Rupert and James #newscorpse
    8 seconds ago

  19. Frank at 12

    When I said “troops” I wasn’t thinking of stalwarts like yourself, I was thinking of the nervous nellies on the backbench just waiting for a call from Shorten or Howes.

  22. OK

    The Rupert Chronicles.

    Chapter 1

    Rupert sacrifices various business associates on his way to the top.

    Chapter 2

    Rupert sacrifices a newspaper and all who work in her.

    Chapter 3

    Rupert sacrifices Ms Brookes.

    Chapter 4

    Rupert says, ‘Where the f**k’s James when you want to talk to him?’

  24. Bushfire Bill
    [By the time the Joint Sitting finally passes the repeal the CT will probably be finished with and the ETS will be in place. We will have had three elections in 4 years. The nation and business will be in turmoil, with investors possibly too scared to invest in ANYTHING, much less in anything Carbon-related.]
    Remember, permits are sold starting in 2012/13, so Abbott would have to front up with $8.5 billion to buy back all the permits sold in 2013/2014.

    [It’s a recipe for disaster, and pointless. Abbott won’t do it. Abbott wouldn’t be allowed to do it. It’s Cloud Cuckoo Land.]
    I would like to think that someone that is sane in the Liberal Party would challenge his leadership.

    Once the Clean Energy Future bills pass there will be some in the Liberals that will propose they should run on a platform of watering the policy down (e.g. fixing the price at a lower rate) rather than throwing the whole lot out.

    Depending on how the polls go, that could create enormous pressure on Abbott.

  25. [GhostOfPJK Ghost of PJK
    by geeksrulz
    KAPOW eh Chewy RT @archiearchive: @dotnetnoobie Your problem is that you lack the power of conversation but not the power of speech.#auspol
    ]

  26. Boerwar
    Re Abbott sporting analogy stunt.
    The MSM, to use the sporting analogy, are not the umpires. They are the runners.

  27. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Murdoch was reported to have said: “i like to clarify one thing. when i said Rebekah was my priority. i meant her resignation” #newscorpse
    11 seconds ago

  28. No worries coanfess , but Antony explains it way better.

    Be interesting if Tone got in in 2013 and tried it anyway, still have Bryce as GG.
    Would she reject his call, would Tone then ask Liz to remove her so he could appoint a friendly GG (Howie) who would listen to him. Sounds like the basis for a great novel.

    SK one of the advantages of a DD is the joint sitting that can be called after it. It was how Gough got his legislation passed.

  29. BB @ 7871 (previous thread)

    Thanks for that. I’d agree that Abbott is in CC land on calling a DD over this. However, the threat to do it is something that could be destabilizing to the economy and investment and he should get slapped down on this publicly.

    Would love to see a journo hit him with this in a presser. Would probably send him into shuddering brainlock again.

    If he does decide to put in an appearance on QANDA them would be worth submitting something like your post as a Q??

  30. [Rupert says, ‘Where the f**k’s James when you want to talk to him?’]

    Like the scene in Lethal Weapon 2, where the henchman checks for plastic on the floor when he walks in to talk to the boss.

  31. [Isthat Doug Anthony in your gravitar?]

    It looks awfully like a young Piers Akerman. 😀

    [I was thinking of the nervous nellies on the backbench just waiting for a call from Shorten or Howes.]

    The PM certainly has a job in managing the polls and backbencher concern. However, given what we’ve seen of her abilities in working with others, I’d like to think there isn’t cause to doubt her ability to do this.

  33. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Rumour is flying that David Jones has decided to hire Rebekah to restore its retail fortunes, she is HOT according to a DJ insider #auspol

  36. Public information announcement: Frank has been banned for a period of no less than a week. This will happen every time he does anything that even slightly irritates me, until he finally learns his lesson. Anyone who has anything at all to say about this in comments will also be banned for a period of no less than a week.

    Now back to discussing politics please.

  37. [Be interesting if Tone got in in 2013 and tried it anyway, still have Bryce as GG.]

    When does Bryce’s term expire? I think she was appointed in 2008, so it might 2013???

  38. [would Tone then ask Liz to remove her so he could appoint a friendly GG (Howie) who would listen to him. Sounds like the basis for a great novel.]

    Sounds like the basis for the complete debasement of our body politic to me.

    Howie as GG?? One of the most nasty and divisive little gits in the history of our country??

    Even the thought of it makes me sick. 🙁

  39. BK

    [Re Abbott sporting analogy stunt.
    The MSM, to use the sporting analogy, are not the umpires. They are the runners.]

    I was thinking of masseurs, but BB would probably say that the main task is: ‘Bootstrapping.’

  41. [Smith at 17

    Yes it is. A childhood hero of mine.]

    Wasn’t Doug the guy who started the rot in the Rural Socialists and opened the gate to all those country Independents by cosying-up to the Libs?

    Wouldn’t a happened in Black Jack’s day.

    Now he knew how to keep a Liberal in his place.

    Just ask Billy McMahon.

  42. Other posters far more intelligent than me advised earlier today that we should take whatever the poll results of Morgan (good, bad or ugly) with a grain of salt.

    I am minded to agree, and we should ignore both of them today.

    Sad that supposedly “impartial and measured” folk like ltep buy into this polling for their own negativity.

  43. [It would appear like with WorkChoices, the more Labor talk about the carbon tax the worse the polls get.]

    No, WorkChoices was introduced, no talking.

    The polls went bad after WorkChoices came in and numerous examples kept on appearing of workers getting ripped off in every which way. Tone’s response a bad boss is better than no boss did not help.

    If numerous examples start occuring after the carbon tax is operating of families being worse off of multiple business closures then labor is stuffed.

    Until we actually see the economy operating with the carbon price and the associated tax cuts and compensation we won’t really know how the voting public view it.

  44. From the last thread, the carbon tax support level is unchanged. I was looking at the top line which asked a different question. My apologies.

    The more significant bit in my opinion is the question on repealing it.

  45. FYI the way Abbott gets around the business of a mandate on workchoices is that they were voted out for doing it. Kind of interesting answer as it’s loaded with the implication that he won’t be touching IR.

  47. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    $322,685,722+ The cost to Australian taxpayers for 2 elections to satisfy Tony Abbotts insatiable lust for power. #auspol
    ]

  48. [Howie as GG is one of the (many) reasons I do not want an Abbott govt.]

    The only thing worse would be Alan Jones as Queen of Australia.

    God save Elizabeth II!

  49. My mum comments: David Jones has gone upmarket, you can’t find anyone to serve you and they’re range has shrunk – no wonder they’re not doing so well.

    I think she’s closer to the truth than some commentators.

  50. Smithie at 41

    No Anthony together with Nixon and Sinclair kept Fraser in line (mostly).

    The rot set in the day Charles Blunt became leader.

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