Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition

The first poll of federal voting intention conducted since the carbon tax announcement finds the government’s carbon tax announcement bounce going in the wrong direction. A Roy Morgan phone poll of 1083 voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, it is in fact the worst result the government has recorded, with a Coalition two-party lead of 60-40 on the more generally reliable measure that allocates minor party preferences as per the previous election (although Morgan as usual headlines with the respondent-allocated result, which has it at 60.5-39.5). The Coalition’s primary vote is approaching double Labor’s – 52.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent – with the Greens on 10.5 per cent.

Morgan has also simultaneously published its latest face-to-face polling results, which actually show a slight improvement in Labor’s standing: primary vote up two points to 33.5 per cent, Coalition down one to 48 per cent, Greens steady on 11.5 per cent, Coalition two-party lead down from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5 (58.5-41.5 to 56-44 on the respondent-allocated measure). However, since this was conducted on the weekend and the carbon tax announcement was made on Sunday, this offers the government no consolation whatsoever when taken together with the phone poll.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has published further results on the carbon tax, which add further to the government’s misery: 37 per cent support the government’s legislation, steady on six weeks ago, while opposition has risen five points to 58 per cent. Skepticism about climate change itself has scaled new heights: 37 per cent of “all people aged 14+” now believe concerns are exaggerated, which is up five points on six weeks ago and compares with just 13 per cent when the question was first asked in April 2006. Support for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government is up three points to 48 per cent and opposition is steady on 45 per cent. As in Morgan’s last such poll, some of the subsequent questions have a very strong whiff of push-polling about them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,874 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition”

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  1. [Channel 7 News tomorrow night running an anti-carbon tax inclusive – apparently grocery prices will rise far higher than the government has predicted.
    Another free kick for Abbott! ]

    Are they basing this on anything, or just more hype?

  2. In regards to the polls, what we might be seeing is the electorate not being comfortable with reform after a decade of political malaise where the role of government was simply to give handouts to people in the marginal electorates.

  3. [

    wolfcatWolf Cocklin

    by HarryJ_Speaker

    $10p/w #carbontax in perspective: Interest rates 7.25% when howard left, now 4.5% a 1% rise equals: $200p/m on a 300k [ betterer maths ]

    12 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  4. [Channel 7 News tomorrow night running an anti-carbon tax inclusive – apparently grocery prices will rise far higher than the government has predicted.]

    Can’t wait to see who their “experts” are… prepare for large shoes, red noses and funny hats

  5. No wonder Murdoch let Brooks go a couple of days ago. Probably knew she was going to be arrested.

    The spin coming out of the hacks at OO, Daily Telegraph, etc. is funny to watch. This morning on Sky Paul Kelly was so serious about how ethical the OO is.

    BTW – I haven’t seen the new ads. What is the verdict, please?

  6. Alan Shore:

    The time for Labor to go feral on Abbott was probably 18 months ago. Unfortunately the then PM wasn’t able to hold the ALP together and here we are today.

    Best to ignore him now and just get on with governing.

  7. Passing the carbon pricing legislation will change nothing in the public debate – after it actually comes into effect in 2012 then -maybe- things may change.

    Until then the ALP has to play it slowly and surely. Sit tight, nothing hasty. The legislation itself has to be drafted very carefully and reviewed to within an inch of its life – there has to be no gotchas in it when it hits parliament.

    Don’t rush it, take your time, don’t panic.

  8. [Channel 7 News tomorrow night running an anti-carbon tax inclusive – apparently grocery prices will rise far higher than the government has predicted.
    Another free kick for Abbott!

    Are they basing this on anything, or just more hype?]

    Probably crap from some vested interest

  9. Question to all the eternal optimists here: When WILL the polls turn around for Gillard?
    I’m sure I was told repeatedly by Gary and others that July 1 would signal the start of the great recovery, then it’d be the release of the Carbon Tax details!
    How long do you all keep the faith? Until the next election?
    What if Julia leads Labor to a crushing defeat in 2013?

  10. [Channel 7 News tomorrow night running an anti-carbon tax inclusive – apparently grocery prices will rise far higher than the government has predicted.
    Another free kick for Abbott!]

    prediction – at least one of their ‘experts’ will be Kate Carnell from the Australian Food & Grocery Council.

    Channel 7, along with most of the media never mention that she was the Lib Chief Minister for the ACT and has been chanting Abbott’s line on TGBTOE at every opportunity.

  11. [Confessions, why do you think passing the CT will anyway impact on the Coalition’s and conservative media’s attack on the policy?]

    It won’t of course. But it allows the govt to move onto other things. Donations reform, mining tax, pokies reform, means testing the PHI rebate.

    These are all policy positions on which the coalition is opposed, and which require it to fight – not least of all because its donors would expect it to (ie mining tax, donations reform). How does the coalition maintain the rage against the CT when it has vanished from the minds of voters and the lens of the media because the media circus has moved onto the latest Labor reform? The NBN has taken a backseat since the CT stuff ramped up as a case in point.

    Meanwhile the govt looks governmental: doing things and governing.

  12. [Confessions, why do you think passing the CT will anyway impact on the Coalition’s and conservative media’s attack on the policy? Did passing the GST shut up Labor? Did legislating WorkChoices quieten down the unions? Of course not. There is an argument that once the CT is up and running and people see that the sky hasn’t collapsed on top of them then maybe things will die down. But that moment is still another 12 months away. In the mean time Labor will keep haemorrhaging unless they turn the tables on Abbott in the same way he turned the tables on Rudd.]

    i don’t understand labor’s lack of killer instinct when it comes to tony.

  13. Anyone who doesn’t know that many scientists today are grant driven is extremely naive. And there have been many many grants going for global warming effects on anything and everything. Anyone who thinks that the CSIRO are independent is also extremely naive. Remember how the Rudd government annouced as soon as it was elected that all CSIRO press releases had to be approved by the politicians to fit the government’s ethos.

    And anyway, the carbon tax in Australia will make no difference to the earth’s atmosphere and that’s been pubicly agreed to by the government’s own highly paid experts. Accusing people who understand all this of being driven by fear and ignorance is the folly that the ALP/Greens have fallen into. If the voters don’t agree with you, throw out a few labels and hope that they stick. All they need is a little educating, and with their own money too. That’s going to go down a treat!

    The last time Science got derided as it is today (as this post is an example of) was in Europe during the 1930’s

  14. [It won’t of course. But it allows the govt to move onto other things. Donations reform, mining tax, pokies reform, means testing the PHI rebate.

    These are all policy positions on which the coalition is opposed, and which require it to fight – not least of all because its donors would expect it to (ie mining tax, donations reform). How does the coalition maintain the rage against the CT when it has vanished from the minds of voters and the lens of the media because the media circus has moved onto the latest Labor reform? The NBN has taken a backseat since the CT stuff ramped up as a case in point.

    Meanwhile the govt looks governmental: doing things and governing.]

    they have been doing that since 2007! it is becoming increasingly obvious that they don’t have a plan other than hope for some deus ex machina, game changer to fall into their laps. even when they do something their only treatment seems to be to bleed the patient. polls in the mid 50s? change sitting PMs. polls keep sliding? new/old julia crap. small boulders turning into an avalanche? let howes have another go at rudd. 61/39? more leeches nurse!

  15. [ Simon Crean to replace Gillard within a month.

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha]

    AHAHAHAHAHAHA

    [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 39 (-2) L/NP 61 (+2) #auspol
    1 minute ago]

    The WIDENING!

  16. [ Sad in the manner of Ozymandis. You can hate a “global media tyrant” but when reduced to a sad old man it makes such feelings a little harder. Damn good for democracy though.

    No way! If this was a one-off, or even two-off lapse, maybe you could forgive him. But 50 years of nastiness, stand-over tactics and manipulation of democracy (I was around in Gough days and have a long memory) builds a pretty hard shell in this little oyster.]

    Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, Bb – exactly how I feel. I’m an Adelaide girl who used to watch his papers come off the press every afternoon on the way home cos I loved the smell of newsprint and admired the way he rebuilt the “News”.

    Snce 1975 I’ve waited patiently for karma to get the despot. I don’t give a fig for how sad, old and tired he looks. I do feel for Dame Elizabeth but I guess she already knows exactly what he is.

  17. I couldn’t keep up tonight as doing other things but in what I did read I was amazed how much effort was wasted responding to Glen’s manufactured ignorance.

    Every point he raised has been well dealt with before on numerous occasions and yet he keeps raising the same fallacies as if they are newly revealed truths and not oft discredited falsehoods.

    Ignore the sod and his trolling.

  18. ” Evil enters like a splinter and spreads like an oak tree”

    Funny how an Ethiopian proverb can sum up News Ltd. so succinctly.

  19. Good plan. You raise an interesting point too. For someone so dominant in the polls, why does Abbott appear so desperate? You’d think he could just do nothing and bask in his popularity.

    Could the electorate be venting, as much as showing their leanings ?

  20. It is simply amazing that anyone would be so devoid of an understanding of how the world operated that they would embarrassed themselves with the comments made at post 2694

    To my mind it is like taking out an add in the press to tell everyone that they are the local snowdropper.

    The sad fact is that there are so many of them.

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