Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition

The first poll of federal voting intention conducted since the carbon tax announcement finds the government’s carbon tax announcement bounce going in the wrong direction. A Roy Morgan phone poll of 1083 voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, it is in fact the worst result the government has recorded, with a Coalition two-party lead of 60-40 on the more generally reliable measure that allocates minor party preferences as per the previous election (although Morgan as usual headlines with the respondent-allocated result, which has it at 60.5-39.5). The Coalition’s primary vote is approaching double Labor’s – 52.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent – with the Greens on 10.5 per cent.

Morgan has also simultaneously published its latest face-to-face polling results, which actually show a slight improvement in Labor’s standing: primary vote up two points to 33.5 per cent, Coalition down one to 48 per cent, Greens steady on 11.5 per cent, Coalition two-party lead down from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5 (58.5-41.5 to 56-44 on the respondent-allocated measure). However, since this was conducted on the weekend and the carbon tax announcement was made on Sunday, this offers the government no consolation whatsoever when taken together with the phone poll.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has published further results on the carbon tax, which add further to the government’s misery: 37 per cent support the government’s legislation, steady on six weeks ago, while opposition has risen five points to 58 per cent. Skepticism about climate change itself has scaled new heights: 37 per cent of “all people aged 14+” now believe concerns are exaggerated, which is up five points on six weeks ago and compares with just 13 per cent when the question was first asked in April 2006. Support for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government is up three points to 48 per cent and opposition is steady on 45 per cent. As in Morgan’s last such poll, some of the subsequent questions have a very strong whiff of push-polling about them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,874 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition”

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  2. [Playing at sounding reasonable and being sensible isn’t working. The only way now for Labor to succeed is to destroy Abbott. ]

    I take a different view. Abbott’s bleating of late stinks of a desperate man wanting relevence. The one clear advantage the ALP has over the coalition is incumbency, so why not ignore the clown doing star jumps on the side and put their advantage into practice?

    Recall parliament and get the CT bills through the House. Next item of business can be the political donations bills which were stymied twice (if memory serves) by the silvertails in the Liberals. Those bills should sail through the current parliament. Then bring on the mining tax. Essential polling has given the govt some clear lines of attack in terms of pitching that legislation to voters. Use it. Leave the opposition flailing about while Labor just gets on with governing.

  4. I’ve been having these incredible dreams lately where Rupert Murdoch is himself the victim of a huge media feeding-frenzy.

  5. Why are none of the major economic powers having an ETS?

    Ahh so Europe isnt a major economic power Glen ? Ummm Oh Kay

  6. [Remember, the L for Learner ads that were ready to go the day Latham took over the leadership? Why hasn’t Labor done anything like that?]

    Because for most of that time Labor had the useless Karl Bitar as national secretary/president/whatever he was, someone who should never have been given such a post.

    The jury is still out with the new guy as far as I’m concerned – his first batch of adverts have failed to impress me. But with any luck he’ll be nowhere near as incompetent as Bitar.

  7. drake@2804

    I’ve been having these incredible dreams lately where Rupert Murdoch is himself the victim of a huge media feeding-frenzy.

    Replace victim with *target* !

    And for every possible reason.

  9. [Now I know what General Custer must have felt like at the Little Big Horn.]

    If the indians had been led by Tony Abbott Custer would have had a famous victory.

    Abbott is all piss and wind.

  12. [I take a different view. Abbott’s bleating of late stinks of a desperate man wanting relevence. The one clear advantage the ALP has over the coalition is incumbency, so why not ignore the clown doing star jumps on the side and put their advantage into practice? ]

    Good plan. You raise an interesting point too. For someone so dominant in the polls, why does Abbott appear so desperate? You’d think he could just do nothing and bask in his popularity.

  13. [confessions

    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Remember, the L for Learner ads that were ready to go the day Latham took over the leadership? Why hasn’t Labor done anything like that?

    Because for most of that time Labor had the useless Karl Bitar as national secretary/president/whatever he was, someone who should never have been given such a post.

    The jury is still out with the new guy as far as I’m concerned – his first batch of adverts have failed to impress me. But with any luck he’ll be nowhere near as incompetent as Bitar
    ]

    Fess,

    With all due respect – you are now a victim of being a Naysayer.

    People forget the stratospheric numbers unsder Rudd.

    And who is PM again ?

  15. Sky News is reporting Rebekah Brooks has been arrested.

    Is this ‘news’ or recycled info masquerading as news?

  17. Looks like this horrific poll is about to be overshadowed by some breaking news from the UK

    Via Twitter

    SkyNewsBreak

    Sky Sources: Rebekah Brooks arrested as part of phone hacking investigation

  18. [pIt is unfortunate that your attack on this strong, gutsy and determined woman, our first female Prime Minister, has been sought through misguided analysis, pseudo expertise and an unwillingness to extend to her the same sympathy you have sought in your own fight to overcome your shyness.

    What is even more unfortunate is that the Age Newspaper gave your opinion any consideration at all.]

    george – shouldn’t the editor at The Age be asked why the paper chose not to have an article balancing that one and making the same conclusion as you have.

    Sian Prior is RMIT lecturing on media, etc?!! Pity help the poor students if that article reflects the quality of the rest of her work.

  20. [why does Abbott appear so desperate?]

    If he had any brains (or honesty) he’d admit he’s patronised by the media. If that should falter and start to fall off, he’s in trouble.

  23. Lets not forget what is on the public record about murdoch’s most senior manager, hartigan, in Australia –

    A little over a year ago he gave evidence in an unfair dismissal case that Bruce Guthrie fought and won against his company;

    in fact, he was in the witness box for more than a day of a six-day hearing. At the end of it, the judge in the case had this to say about the News Limited CEO:

    ”There were aspects about his evidence which lead me to be cautious about accepting a number of critical features of it.”

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/ruperts-gorilla-tactics-20110716-1hj4o.html#ixzz1SKHbyhvI

  24. [For someone so dominant in the polls, why does Abbott appear so desperate? ]

    It’s interesting isn’t it? MT has been tweeting defiantly behind the scenes too, refusing to abide by his colleagues’ request to shut it. For a party leading so comfortably in the polls, the coalition is freaked out.

    [With all due respect – you are now a victim of being a Naysayer.]

    I’m simply giving my opinion; I thought those ads were awful. Sorry, but someone needs to say it.

  25. confessions:

    [I take a different view.]

    6 months ago I would have agreed with you. In fact, I think I wrote comment around that time suggesting that the best thing Labor could do was to pretend Abbott didn’t exist. The problem is now he does exist, and very much so, in the minds of a significant number of voters. The risk Labor runs now is that these polls become entrenched like they did in NSW.

  27. [If he had any brains (or honesty) he’d admit he’s patronised by the media. If that should falter and start to fall off, he’s in trouble. ]

    Hmm… or maybe its that his whole style is based on ‘maintaining the rage’ (for he has no vision besides ‘Gillard is terrible’), so any breaks from that could halt his momentum.

  28. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 8:59 pm | Permalink

    Remember all those sceptics who said the “Alcopops Tax” wouldn’t work.

    “The success of the alcopops tax in cutting teen drinking could be used as a model to introduce a minimum price on all alcoholic beverages, drug and alcohol experts suggest.

    A study of the effects of the three-year-old alcopops tax by an alliance of representatives from the Alcohol Advisory Group, National Drug Research Council and academics has found teenagers are drinking less as a result”.]

    Good news. And out of deference to Evan I will gladly acknowledge that this was a Rudd initiative.

    That said, they may as well leave it to Roxon to boot the Liberals over it. Despite the Big Tobacco attempt to out her over a five-year-old canvassing letter (Wow! That must have really burned the midnight oil in the Dirt Unit!), she’s on a roll on health issues at present.

  33. TLBD

    Yep. The Blueytrend is looking good for 0% by 1 December, MOE of a week either side.
    Well, sort of looking good: good from a technical excellence in psephology point-of-view.

    Shithouse from every other point of view, but.

  37. [It’s interesting isn’t it? MT has been tweeting defiantly behind the scenes too, refusing to abide by his colleagues’ request to shut it. For a party leading so comfortably in the polls, the coalition is freaked out. ]

    That is one comfort in the current situation. No matter how big their lead is, its currently built on very shaky foundations. If Abbott does have a downturn (whether by moderates in the party rebelling or by the media changing their mind), I imagine it (when it happens) to move fast for that same reason. Labor’s low in the polls, but they are going to have a good foundation of achievements and real reforms for the country rather than some ‘return to Howard’ crap. The other point is that Abbott’s strategy is very popular now, but it leaves open the question of what the hell he’s going to do in two years. With all the nonsense and stunts he’s done already, how can he keep it ‘fresh’ for so long a time?

  38. [

    tweetminsterTweetminster

    Rebekah Brooks is being held on suspicion of conspiring to intercept communications & corruption allegations – Sky News #notw #phonehacking

    1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  39. [george – shouldn’t the editor at The Age be asked why the paper chose not to have an article balancing that one and making the same conclusion as you have.]

    My thoughts are “why the farq is this kind of article even being considered in the first place???” – I mean, analysing whether someone is really shy? Really? And some no-body who writes articles on travel doing the analysing?

    I expect this kind of stuff on A Current Affair… but the Age? Where is the meat? Where is the analysis on policy by the heavy hitters? Where are the experts? Instead it’s miss travel pants who thinks the PM isn’t shy because… wait for it… she’s interviewed a whole lot of peoples!!!! Oh goody!

    Time for a drink 😐

  40. [Recall parliament and get the CT bills through the House.]

    Confessions, why do you think passing the CT will anyway impact on the Coalition’s and conservative media’s attack on the policy? Did passing the GST shut up Labor? Did legislating WorkChoices quieten down the unions? Of course not. There is an argument that once the CT is up and running and people see that the sky hasn’t collapsed on top of them then maybe things will die down. But that moment is still another 12 months away. In the mean time Labor will keep haemorrhaging unless they turn the tables on Abbott in the same way he turned the tables on Rudd.

  45. Channel 7 News tomorrow night running an anti-carbon tax inclusive – apparently grocery prices will rise far higher than the government has predicted.
    Another free kick for Abbott!

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