Newspoll: 55-45 to LNP in Ashgrove (Queensland)

With all indicators pointing to a landslide defeat for Anna Bligh’s Labor government in Queensland at the state election due early next year, it seemed to me that one question mark remained: the Liberal National Party’s risky plan to parachute its extra-parliamentary leader, Campbell Newman, into the seat of Ashgrove, held by popular Labor member Kate Jones on a margin of no less than 7.3 per cent. Should any indications emerge during the campaign that Newman might not get over the line, there would emerge the electorally ruinous question of who would lead the party in his absence.

However, GhostWhoVotes relates that a Newspoll survey to be published in The Australian tomorrow shows the toxicity of the Labor brand is such that this is unlikely to be a problem. The poll shows Newman with a 55-45 two-candidate preferred lead over Jones, from primary votes of 50 per cent for Newman, 37 per cent for Jones and 11 per cent for the Greens. It also finds 57 per cent of voters in the electorate approve of Newman against only 27 per cent who disapprove. I will be interested to see the sample size, but this being Newspoll it can be taken for granted it was fairly substantial.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates the sample size was 504, putting the margin of error a bit north of 4 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to LNP in Ashgrove (Queensland)”

  1. The question is whether or not this poll included the Queensland Party as an option. I seem to recall the announcement that they are running Bob Irwin (father of the late Steve Irwin).

  2. Isn’t this swing pretty much in line with the current Statewide swing from the last polling (although getting old now) of an 11% swing since the election? Not all that much of a personal filip for Newman- but anyway, not much doubt about the result in a few months…

  3. This has been a pretty consistent figure since god knows when, only slightly interrupted by the floods. The elevation of Campbell Newman (a very popular figure in Brisbane) as LNP leader has sealed the deal.

    The Carbon Tax may play a part, depending on when the election is (the GST certainly played a part in several state elections past, as did Workchoices.) But this just reaffirms that QLD are ready for a new government.

  4. The commentariat will go troppo in March, after the defeat of Bligh. It will be all Gillards fault. I think not. Its the brand. Tony will call for another federal election as he poses with Newman on election night. Julia might say no.

  5. The last Qld state election happened at the height of Rudd’s popularity, so I think you can argue that federal labor helped considerably in getting Bligh across the line. In contrast the last Federal election result in Qld, saw Bligh’s unpopularity drive the federal vote down. The next state election looks like being a situation where both the Feds and Bligh are severly on the nose.

  6. Both Bligh and Gillard did a great job in restoring Queensland after cyclones, floods etc.

    Their reward? A giant kick in the backside.

    That’s gratitude for you.

  7. Both Bligh and Gillard are pathetic, thats why the electorate have the baseball bats ready. Yes, they did well after the floods (esp Bligh) but you didn’t think that gave them a free pass did you? Campbell Newman did well too so its even on that score.

  8. I don’t live in QLD so I can’t comment on Bligh’s quality but it’s obvious that this entire term has been borrowed time for her government. It’s time for fresh faces and fresh ideas, seemingly. And the position of federal Labor would unlikely change that.

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