The first poll of federal voting intention conducted since the carbon tax announcement finds the government’s carbon tax announcement bounce going in the wrong direction. A Roy Morgan phone poll of 1083 voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, it is in fact the worst result the government has recorded, with a Coalition two-party lead of 60-40 on the more generally reliable measure that allocates minor party preferences as per the previous election (although Morgan as usual headlines with the respondent-allocated result, which has it at 60.5-39.5). The Coalition’s primary vote is approaching double Labor’s – 52.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent – with the Greens on 10.5 per cent.
Morgan has also simultaneously published its latest face-to-face polling results, which actually show a slight improvement in Labor’s standing: primary vote up two points to 33.5 per cent, Coalition down one to 48 per cent, Greens steady on 11.5 per cent, Coalition two-party lead down from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5 (58.5-41.5 to 56-44 on the respondent-allocated measure). However, since this was conducted on the weekend and the carbon tax announcement was made on Sunday, this offers the government no consolation whatsoever when taken together with the phone poll.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has published further results on the carbon tax, which add further to the government’s misery: 37 per cent support the government’s legislation, steady on six weeks ago, while opposition has risen five points to 58 per cent. Skepticism about climate change itself has scaled new heights: 37 per cent of “all people aged 14+” now believe concerns are exaggerated, which is up five points on six weeks ago and compares with just 13 per cent when the question was first asked in April 2006. Support for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government is up three points to 48 per cent and opposition is steady on 45 per cent. As in Morgan’s last such poll, some of the subsequent questions have a very strong whiff of push-polling about them.
[
OTOH, Bluey is tickled psychedelic blue to think that some poor staffer on Mr Bolt’s show has to comb through Bludger Stunt Watch to find some good material.
]
Boerwar
From memory, Bolt’s stunt of the week award went to Christine Milne. Can’t remember what for though
[oh my.
Oh my indeed. Another shocking poll.]
And there are going to be plenty more, so let’s just suck it up until the tide turns.
[Perhaps the PM should take my advice: recall parliament, get the bills through the HoR and into the Senate, and then tackle the next issue. Is that pokies reform or the mining tax?]
Fess, no. you talk them into submission
[Darn
Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
oh my.
Oh my indeed. Another shocking poll.
And there are going to be plenty more, so let’s just suck it up until the tide turns.
]
Exactly.
Ugly stuff
Changing leaders will just make things worse.
They need to stay on course and make it until the end of the year.
[All I’ll say is Kevin Rudd had similar figures 2 years out from an election.]
Sensible perspective. Its a cliche but 2 years is a hell of a long time. That said, it’d be nice to get some turnaround in the near future if only to maybe relieve a little of the media pressure.
Follow the money honey
Murdoch’s Political Money Trail
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/07/15/how-rupert-murdoch-s-money-helps-him-makes-friends.html
[Ugly stuff
Changing leaders will just make things worse.
They need to stay on course and make it until the end of the year.]
Yep. And look at it this way. Say it doesn’t improve and Gillard loses the election in 2013, that’s still two years off. As opposing to risking dissolving the government now if anything changes.
The polls were never going to turn based on the announcement. Fear is overcome by facing it not alking about it. Wait until the CT is in for awhile. If the polls don’t turn then say hello to PM Abbott and all those that vote for him will deserve everything they get.
[Simon Crean to replace Gillard within a month]
Glory, during the last election I formed an opinion that you were one of the genuine thinkers here. But after a comment like that I’ll have to revise that opinion.
Boerwar:
If Bluey doesn’t mind being plagiarised, then who am I to argue?
Btw when is his analysis coming out?
The polls will take a while to turn in this hostile climate and I deciding whether to do my tax, engage with Libs in the short term gloat phase of the political cycle or watch a movie in front of the fire…
Fire wins.
Ciao PBs
PS I think Julia has had a very good week. 🙂
[my say
Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 6:39 pm | Permalink
well a spot of reading funnley enough i am reading
Doriean Grey
night all]
After you’ve finished that, have another look at Philip Ruddock and see if there are resemblances.
“I AM deciding” doh
[Howard would have stopped an ETS because of outside factors (GFC/Copenhagen).
2613]
Glen – my OH just read that and started laughing. Said ‘not another Howard non core promise’ and right on cue Dave posted Howard’s words which he cannot now escape.
[Journalist: Haven’t you locked Australia into an emissions trading scheme in the next term?
Howard: Yes, I have.
Journalist: Regardless of what our trading competitors do?
Howard: Yes, but that is precisely the sort of contribution we should make.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/seeking-respect-in-a-difficult-climate/story-e6frezz0-1226095554922
Howard proved himself a liar again today when he said the ROW is not acting. Howard is now calling the Productivity Commission liars.
It’s only conservatives in this country who can get away with rubbish like that.
[Glory, during the last election I formed an opinion that you were one of the genuine thinkers here. But after a comment like that I’ll have to revise that opinion.]
I’m not saying anything having sworn blind the Gillard challenge was ridiculous speculation. Different times though…
The Finnigans @2750: Would have to agree – a snowball’s chance in hell, I would think. And in a way, a shame , I think. I always had time for Crean – seemed like a decent, likeable bloke. Just, what? – unlucky? And his father was a legend.
Gixxer man
[I believe it was tim flannery who confirmed there would be no effect and mark dreyfus has also said so in writing to a constituent]
I passed along this comment to Bluey. After all it looked reasonable to me. But he just sighed with exasperation. He reckons he is up to eight armpits in trying to pick the winning stunt for each category, and he gets this sort of stuff.
He reckons the following:
(1) It is hypocritical to attack the Government for what the Coalition itself intends to to do. Any balanced approach has to take into account both approaches. Simply slagging Ms Gillard’s package is not good enough for quality public policy debate.
(2) Bluey reckons that we need to be a bit more nuanced here. All around the world there are packs of Do-nothings urging nations to do nothing until someone else does. When they are not uttering death threats and issuing revolutionary calls to arms, they are lying about what other nations are already not doing. They all focus on the negative effects of anything, anything, that is actually done. If Australia, top per capita polluter, and 16th rank in terms of absolute quantity of pollution, helps to get the ball rolling, then that is not nothing. It is a BIG something. It is the sort of big something the world desperately needs.
(3) Mr Flannery may be right. Bluey knows nothing about climate science.
(4) Bluey was wondering who the totally unimportant Mr Dreyfus is, and why should a busy octopus be bothered with him?
[The polls will take a while to turn in this hostile climate and I deciding whether to do my tax, engage with Libs in the short term gloat phase of the political cycle or watch a movie in front of the fire…
Fire wins.]
I also refuse to engage in the same old arguments every time a negative poll comes out. It gets boring. Go for it evan and TP.
Gaffhook@2757
What never ceases to amaze me is the *relative* small amounts vested interests spend to reap huge benefits –
Peanuts really in comparison.
[zackster Zac Spitzer
If 61% 2PP doesn’t warrant hard core scrutiny of Abbott’s policy (note the singular) What does? #Nielsen #auspol]
[Fess, no. you talk them into submission]
Finns:
There is a long way to go after only a week of the CT detail being available. When the legislation has passed through parliament ramp up the adverts.
In the meantime Labor can take advantage of the spoils of office: governing and getting its legislative agenda passed. Leave the clown Abbott on the sidelines screeching like a banshee.
Btw, what has happened to Gus? Someone said before they miss him. Is he ok?
confessions
[If Bluey doesn’t mind being plagiarised, then who am I to argue?
Btw when is his analysis coming out?]
Bluey is aiming to publish the complete list of 100 stunts, a short analysis, and a list of winners for each category, plus over all winner on The Poll Bludger tomorrow at about 4pm.
Mmmmm, Oh well, get a few things done while you are being kicked.
At least after the kicking the ALP has had they should be numb by now.
May as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.
[
BirmoSimon Birmingham
@JuliaGillard brought her #CarbonTax sell to SA today & went to the electorate of Port #Adelaide, which has a 19.8% Labor margin… #auspol
2 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
BH – thats why glen ran away – as usual. William is on the record in stating glen being *slippery with the truth*
Please glen post your reply.
“Comment is free, but facts are sacred…”
[Btw, what has happened to Gus? Someone said before they miss him. Is he ok?]
Can’t log in to PB for some reason
Just as well we had the NSW revolving door of premiers to teach the right some sort of lesson, or they’d be looking at changing Gillard for someone else.
HSO
Average Body Temp = 37 c.
at 38 you have fever
39 you’re delerious
at 40 your dead
So, Glen I suppose Global Warming is just getting used to warmer weather, as Howie said.
Thanks Boerwar.
I’ll keep an eye out for it in the event I’m caught up in other stuff at that time.
[I believe it was tim flannery who confirmed there would be no effect]
Not to put too fine a point on it, Gixxer Man, you are a LIAR. Tim Flannery has said no such thing.
Even if they were thinking of doing the NSW thing to Gillard, it wouldn’t be Crean – he’s worth several Conroys but isn’t the sort of leadership material desperately needed just now, and the pre-selection brawl in 2006 would suggest the right faction bosses wouldn’t be considering him.
[Can’t log in to PB for some reason]
I’m always forgetting my passwords: Crikey, email, internet banking, facebook. I’ve had to keep a record of each one so I can keep up with it all!
As with the previous polls. just get on with governing and get things done that cannot be reversed. If the electorate wants Abbott’s empty rhetoric as the likes of Glen indicate then so be it. There will be an NBN, there will be an ETS and a host of other solid policy achievements.
Abbott will not reverse them. He is an empty vessel. Like his supporters on here he can outline no vision, no positive outlook at all. Just throw away populist lines. Like Glen’s repeated unpleasant little references to African countries as untrustworthy, there is a nasty edge to it, and I do hope the Liberals can keep a lid on the extremists they have unleashed.
[razhorse Crag MaZ
@AlboMP Anthony, I drove the Pacific Hwy to QLD last week – shocking in parts. Too much to do. Pls escalate works. #HowardGovtFailure]
[@AlboMP Anthony Albanese
@razhorse I agree. That’s why we’ve committed $4.1b to Pac Hwy already compared with HG $1.3b over 12 years #HowardGovtFailure]
Love the hashtag!! 😆
I found that – after changing my password after crikey had asked me if I wanted to – it was very difficult to log in again.
Although I had clicked ‘remember me’, it never did but kept putting in the old password regardless (at least I assume so, because of course I couldn’t read what was being put in).
Gus, if you changed your password recently, you might need to manually type it in, rather than letting it put it in for you.
[Glen
Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 7:41 pm | Permalink
and a bloke who became PM by “Knifing” an exisitng PM
And look how well that turned out?
Gillard will go down in history as worse than McMahon and that’s an achievement when you consider how bad Billy was.]
Not if she lands the carbon pricing program, she won’t.
Whomever posted the alcopops tax article link from the Age, cheers – the comments at the bottom of the article gave me a laugh and just proved my earlier point as to whom the other side “listen” to and what they think of the experts:
Ahh, the Commonwealth of Nanny:
[Nanny State contd..This isn’t a democracy anymore.]
Those darn “socialist uncommon-sense professioins”:
[Same old crap from bloated overpaid medical professioin]
[What’s this,socialist medicine/pharma attacking the poor again.]
[Why do health experts lack common sense?]
You’re just too regular!
[Just another example of the over-regulated society we live in]
Mr Genius here gets it, but umm, doesn’t get it:
[They didn’t stop drinking. They stopped drinking alcopops & moved over to cheap wine, or putting their money together for a bottle of spirits]
and his twin brother:
[They didn’t stop drinking they just changed their type of drink]
You’re all party poopers!
[Alcohol is so expensive in Australia’s bars that I don’t even go out to bars anymore. But because of our nanny state laws on food, I don’t have the Asian alternative to have delicious cheap food in outdoor food courts that stay open all night. If you want to make life as unbearable as possible, please open new avenues so that us social creatures can enjoy ourselves..]
and the statisticator!
[Ya I don’t think the 90% of people who are drinking responsibly should all have to pay more for the few people who are over-consuming alcohol and causing a problem]
Farq, we’re dumbing UP!
[Glen
Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 8:11 pm | Permalink
Gillard sold her soul to the Greens for power.
Howard would have stopped an ETS because of outside factors (GFC/Copenhagen).]
Like what they were alleging Gillard and Swan did to convince Rudd?
[@AlboMP Anthony Albanese
@razhorse I agree. That’s why we’ve committed $4.1b to Pac Hwy already compared with HG $1.3b over 12 years #HowardGovtFailure]
Good on Albo for being on the ball. Baldwin is always raving about Labor doing nothing for the Pacific Highway but whenever money is allocated he takes the credit for it in the local rag. I bet the other Oppn pollies are doing the same all up and down the coast.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 39 (-2) L/NP 61 (+2) #auspol ]
It’s time for Labor to start taking the fight to Abbott. In fact, it’s way past time. Playing at sounding reasonable and being sensible isn’t working. The only way now for Labor to succeed is to destroy Abbott. While they’re at it they can destroy the festering sore that is the Liberal Party.
[Although I had clicked ‘remember me’]
I don’t use ‘remember me’ for anything. Not here, not Facebook, not gmail. I always have to enter my password. When I close down Firefox my settings are set to delete all cookies, history etc on closing as I was told this is the safest way to use the internet.
I’ve never had trouble logging into Crikey (touch wood), except for a short period last night when instead of ‘username’ the Crikey logon page was asking for ’email address’. Email address did not work, and I kept getting an error message in reply, but my usual ‘username’ did when I finally decided to ignore the request for ’email address’. Perhaps Gus is stuck at this point?
Put another murdoch on the BBQ ?
What goes around comes around 🙂
The Captain should go down with his ship…..
[Gillard will go down in history as worse than McMahon]
Oh, for God’s sake Glen, were you around in the late 60’s, early 70’s? Do you have a clue?
[It’s time for Labor to start taking the fight to Abbott. In fact, it’s way past time. Playing at sounding reasonable and being sensible isn’t working. The only way now for Labor to succeed is to destroy Abbott. While they’re at it they can destroy the festering sore that is the Liberal Party. ]
The problem is that its a hard, hard thing with his media protectors spinning anything Labor says and amplifying his every argument. Hell, was there even any non-Brisbane coverage of his carbon price/QLD floods remark? That’s the sort of thing that if any other politician said would be widely considered beyond the pale, but because its him he gets away with it. Its very frustrating.
2PP = 39%??
Now I know what General Custer must have felt like at the Little Big Horn.
rishane:
[The problem is that its a hard, hard thing with his media protectors spinning anything Labor says and amplifying his every argument.]
I agree. That’s why every answer to every question has to be turned into an attack on Abbott. That’s exactly what Howard did to Latham and it worked. Remember, the L for Learner ads that were ready to go the day Latham took over the leadership? Why hasn’t Labor done anything like that?
[Even if they were thinking of doing the NSW thing to Gillard, it wouldn’t be Crean]
Here’s how angry I get with the NSW Right.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/when-a-butterfly-flaps-its-wings-in-the-vales-of-wales-20100702-zu0u.html
I apologise for the swearing.
[Shineybum
Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 8:32 pm | Permalink
I can’t believe that Bolt once worked for Bob Hawke!
He didn’t. He briefly worked, in a junior capacity, for the National Media Liaison Service, part of the public service when Hawke was PM. It’s ridiculous to say that he ‘worked for Bob Hawke’.]
Thanks for that, Shineybum. I’ve long had trouble reconciling anyone on Hawke’s staff becoming so rabidly reactionary. That bit makes a bit of sense of it. ….although I don’t think Bolt did anything to discourage that perception that he was a Hawke Government staffer.
[I agree. That’s why every answer to every question has to be turned into an attack on Abbott. That’s exactly what Howard did to Latham and it worked. Remember, the L for Learner ads that were ready to go the day Latham took over the leadership? Why hasn’t Labor done anything like that?]
They’ve attacked him a ton. No matter how good the lines are though, they just don’t get recirculated.