Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 27 per cent for Labor (down -3), 49 per cent for the Coalition (up +3) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up +1). More to follow, though probably not until tomorrow.

UPDATE (13/7/11): Very bad news for the government from a Galaxy survey of 500 respondents conducted on Monday night, which finds essentially no change in opinion on the carbon tax: only 29 per cent say that, “based on what you have seen or heard about the carbon tax”, they are supportive; fully 60 per cent are opposed. Galaxy has again pointlessly asked respondents if they think Gillard has a mandate for the tax or should instead call an election, a false dichotomy I railed against when they asked it six weeks ago, but since they have also asked the more sensible question it’s not such a problem. Terrifyingly for the government, only 10 per cent believe they will be better off under the carbon tax against 68 per cent worse off, despite what the Treasury modelling has to say on the subject.

UPDATE 2 (14/7/11): Essential Research has also published results for a question on the exclusion of fuel from the carbon tax, conducted for the Ten Network. I presume this formed part of last week’s survey, and was thus conducted before Sunday’s announcement. It has 30 per cent declaring themselves more likely to support the tax on the basis of the exclusion of fuel, 11 per cent less likely and 52 per cent saying it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,896 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

Comments Page 158 of 158
1 157 158
  1. Stunt 92

    Mr Abbott says that politicians complaining about the media are like footballers complaining about umpires. Mongrel lie stunt. 15 July 2011.

    Bluey reckons that this meets the ‘false analogy’ element of the mongrel lie stunt category. At first hearing it sounds as if this folksy analogy makes a lot of common sense. In reality, Mr Abbott is trying to use a false analogy to make something look true when the opposite is the truth.

    Look more closely and the analogy and what do we see?

    (1) Umpires do not make up the rules; the media do.
    (2) Umpires do not favour one team or another; the media do. In fact, if an umpire announced at the start of a game of football that his intention was to destroy one of the teams, he would be lucky to get off the field alive.
    (3) Our democracy is not a game of football.

    Finally, Bluey reckons that by casting the ‘issue’ in term of ‘whinging’ Mr Abbott seeks to downplay an issue that is of crucial important to our democracy.

    Bluey reckons that, in a couple of sentences, Mr Abbott has once again sought to reduce the quality of our public debate to his personal political advantage. In doing so, he once more chips away at the foundation of our democracy – the truth.

  2. [ I think the caucus will regard him as being tainted as a “faceless man”. Certainly the public would.]

    I think you overestimate the public’s knowledge of politics and political events. I’d doubt a majority would know who Shorten is, let alone his involvement in certain political events.

  3. [Carbon Tax

    Support 37% (+5),]

    with all the negativity latley i would think this will rise about 2 percent a month,

    when it sinks in about the compensation and that abbott can do nothing and would
    ” change if the world changes” lol

    well tone the world had changed

  4. [Do you support a carbon tax that provides compensation to low and middle income households and small businesses? (Support 50%, Oppose 35%)]

    My say

    Where did those figures comes from?

  5. [He says that is “their right”, but they should not pretend that their coverage of the issue is fair and balanced.

    “If they want to go out and oppose putting a price on carbon they can do that, but the fact is that those media outlets should not pretend that their coverage is balanced, it clearly is not,” he said.

    The Treasurer singled out Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, a Murdoch-owned tabloid, as an “unbalanced” newspaper.

    “The Daily Telegraph in Sydney is constantly opposing a price on carbon. It doesn’t care how it does it,” Mr Swan told reporters.]

    Is he wrong Glen?

  6. [You know Labor are in trouble when they start attacking the Press]

    I enjoy Glen’s provocations but this is a lazy example. He’s a bit out of form it seems. Been a tough week I guess.

  7. [I don’t understand Green’s 2015 statement either.]

    Tone wins in October 2013.
    Senators elected in Oct 2013 don’t take seats until July 2014.
    Legislation has to be rejected twice, 3 month break in between, before DD can be called.
    Takes DD election date to 2015.

    Antony says DD cannot be called using rejected legislation from senate of Oct 2013 to July 2014, ie old senators, as constitution implies has to be senators of that election that installed Tone, ie 2013 taking their seats.

  8. corrected:

    [Cost of 2010 Reps & half-senate elections $161,342,861. The amt Abbott wants to piss away to chase his personal ambitions. x 2 #auspol]

  9. corrected:

    [Cost of 2010 Reps & half-senate elections $161,342,861. The amt Abbott wants to piss away to chase his personal ambitions. x 2 #auspol]

  10. My Say, your prayer has been answered:

    [RupertMurdochPR Not Rupert Murdoch
    Rebekah did not quit to avod answering questions, she decided she wanted to go to Australa to edit the Adelaide Advertiser. That’s all #notw
    3 minutes ago ]

  11. Glen,

    We’re kind enough to take your bait, you might want to throw something a little fresher on the hook. (remember – sporting analogies are mine for today)

  12. Since The Management is busy:
    [In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion. The noun troll may refer to the provocative message itself, as in: “That was an excellent troll you posted”. While the word troll and its associated verb trolling are associated with Internet discourse, media attention in recent years has made such labels subjective, with trolling describing intentionally provocative actions outside of an online context. For example, mass media uses troll to describe “a person who defaces Internet tribute sites with the aim of causing grief to families.”]

  13. Glen
    Swan is not attacking the media saying
    [“The Daily Telegraph in Sydney is constantly opposing a price on carbon. It doesn’t care how it does it,” Mr Swan told reporters.]

    Is no different than saying lads mags are full of tits and bums.

  14. Confessions wrote:

    [I don’t understand Green’s 2015 statement either.

    Can someone please explain?]

    It’s based on Abbott winning a normal election (House of Reps + half-Senate) in 2013.

    The newly elected Senators will not take their seats until July 1, 2014. Any double dissolution previous to that (between the election in 2013 and July 1, 2014) would – according to Green – be held to be un-Constitutional, as the newly elected Senators would not have been sworn in and thus not had a chance to vote on the CT repeal legislation.

    So you don’t even start the ball rolling – twice rejected within three months – until July 1, 2014.

    But then you have hold ups in committee, drafting delays and so on (remember, by then the CT would be two years in operation, so you just can’t say ‘We repeal it’… stakeholders would have to be consulted). So the legislation would likely not be twice presented and rejected before about Christmas 2014. No elections at Christmas, so say March for the DD election (in which the Greens only have to get a half-quota, so are more likely to be elected than before when on a full quota).

    Even if Abbott wins it, but doesn’t win a majority in the Senate, the laws still have to be rejected again by the Senate… take another few months for that. If rejected then a Joint Sitting is required.

    By the time the Joint Sitting finally passes the repeal the CT will probably be finished with and the ETS will be in place. We will have had three elections in 4 years. The nation and business will be in turmoil, with investors possibly too scared to invest in ANYTHING, much less in anything Carbon-related.

    It’s a recipe for disaster, and pointless. Abbott won’t do it. Abbott wouldn’t be allowed to do it. It’s Cloud Cuckoo Land.

  15. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Interesting. Rebekah said she needs to concentrate on re-butting. Whose butt? #newscorpse #notw
    14 seconds ago

  16. [My Say, your prayer has been answered[]

    spot i have been praying to St Jude to interven in this for months

    you can all laugh but i have been, i have a cd in my car of songs of praise and i play it as i get sick of praying all the time, lol

  17. castle I may be dumb here but it calling the election anyone doesn’t guarantee Tone a change of HoR or Senate. Who knows how the punters will vote in 2015 especially when a day is a long time in politics.

  18. BB:

    [That was enough for her. Why should Aussie taxpayers’ money be used to send men to Mars? There was enough misery on Earth. To worry about a few space jockeys on Mars was foolish and wrong, she said. I tried to make the point that we are still benefiting from the technologies developed for the Moon landing. The guide gave nme the “cut throat” signal, telling me to shut-up and not be controversial. So I did, but continued the conversation later on privately with her.

    She wouldn’t busge.

    She had also “felt threatened” by the amount of money being spent on Global Warming research at ANSTO. She thought Global Warming was being shoved down her throat, when (look around youse), it’s so freakin’ cold outside! I said I thought that inside ANSTO there was no argument about Global Warming. That seemed to prove her point, somehow.]

    You have the patience of a saint, Bushfire.

    And this is the product of 4 million years of human evolution?

    Maybe we should have just stayed in the trees and given it all a miss.

  19. my say,
    [ i have a cd in my car of songs of praise and i play it as i get sick of praying all the time]
    I call that initiative. Your vicarious vicar.

  20. Thanks castle. Have just read Green’s post, which I do remember reading when he first put it up.

    As Boerwar said, 2015 is getting closer and closer to 2020 and reaching that 5% cut, which will become more and more expensive to achieve the more we close in on the target year.

    But in any case, Abbott’s rhetoric about a DD are just hollow words. Once the CT is in and functioning, and people have their tax cuts, he won’t repeal the legislation.

  21. Bushfire Bill
    [Abbott won’t do it. Abbott wouldn’t be allowed to do it. It’s Cloud Cuckoo Land.]
    Exactly. As I have said before it was with astonishment 3 years ago at a carbon trading conference to discover that a) The really big money end of town were for it as they considered it inevitable globally and wanted certainty and b) They had been preparing for at least a decade.

  22. The Daily Tele talks of people power in urging an early election.

    Yet they vehemently rail against people power where people call for a ban on companies/ advertisers as a way of showing their displeasure.

    It was people power that closed NoTW, the mums utterly disgusted at at NoTW, the mums emailed tweeted the advertisers and said we are not going to buy your products if you advertise in that paper. The advertisers withdrew their ads and NoTW closed.

    News is terrified of people power, it was they rail against GetUp and boycotts. People power shut one newspaper, it can shut others.

  23. [I don’t understand Green’s 2015 statement either.

    Can someone please explain?]
    There’s an election in late 2013, let’s say the Coalition wins.

    Parliament will sit again in early 2014, let’s say Feb, 2014.

    Opposition starts parliament by presenting some bills to repeal ETS. It passes the House of Reps pretty easily, and goes to the Senate.

    The Senate won’t deal with the bills until the next sittings so that would be March at the earliest. Once they get there, Labor and the Greens will send the Bills of to as many committees as they can.

    Let’s say the bills then come back to the Senate in the budget week in May, they will then be heavily amended with Labor / Green wrecking amendments and go back to the House. The House will probbaly rejecting the amendments so then they will go back to the Senate and be defeated.

    So we are already in June 2014 at the earliest and they have been defeated once.

    The Government then can’t get a D.D. trigger until they are blocked again AFTER roughly June, so 6 months after that is late January 2015 at the earliest

    So the bills block then, and then Abbott goes to a D.D. in say February 2015.

    That’s how he gets to 2015, the parliamentary process of blocking the bills twice would take a year.

  24. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Alfred Hitchcock has been sighted in London planning for a remake of his 1940 CLASSIC Rebekah starring Rebekah, Rupert and James #newscorpse
    8 seconds ago

  25. BB @ 7871

    Thanks for that. I’d agree that Abbott is in CC land on calling a DD over this. However, the threat to do it is something that could be destabilizing to the economy and investment and he should get slapped down on this publicly.

    Would love to see a journo hit him with this in a presser. Would probably send him into shuddering brainlock again.

    If he does decide to put in an appearance on QANDA them would be worth submitting something like your post as a Q??

  26. Dan Gulberry@7815

    Times newspaper tweets News Corp executive Rebekah Brooks has resigned

    That leaves her free to spill the beans. And to cover her own backside, no doubt she will.

    James Murdoch the next target, then the evil one after that.

  27. [the Telegraph is not a balanced newspaper]

    Glen, do you live in Sydney?

    If the terrorgraf was any more balanced it’d tip over.

    I have said it before, for a coalition adherent, sanity and reason are optional extras.

    Sorry Glen — sadly, it appears you have been brainwashed by Abbott’s relentless conditioning. A year ago I enjoyed your posts. Now ….?

  28. [the Telegraph is not a balanced newspaper]
    But it is balanced. The Yin of Labor Bad is perfectly balanced by the Yang of Coalition Good.

  29. [ShowsOn @ 7714:

    I take your posts seriously but I’m not quite sure what you’re conveying here.

    The G.G.’s reserve powers are reserve powers because they aren’t explicitly defined in the constitution, but nor are they prohibited by it.

    That’s the only point I was making.

    I admit I wasn’t at my sublime best when I made that post.]

    Okay, we are never at our best all the time.

    But the powers of the GG are defined – see Chapter II, “The Executive Government” – they’re almost absolute, tempered only by the common law:

    S61. ‘The executive power of the Commonwealth is vested in the Queen and is exercisable by the Governor-General as the Queen’s representative, and extend to the execution and maintenance of this Constitution, and the laws of the Commonwealth.’ But these word are illusory, given the reserve powers of the the Governor-General, who despite convention, has the power to not to consent to any law thus enacted.

    Save for various conventions – which in 1975 proved totally inadequate – in point of fact, the Governor-General’s powers are way in excess than those of HM, which are constrained not by a constitution but by various paramount documents (eg, Magna Carta), Acts (eg, Act of Settlement), and the common law, which has been subsumed to a great extent by statutes.

    We’d like to think vice-regal personages such as Game & Kerr would’ve done the right thing but they’ve proved we need – not a UK paramount act – but an Australian constitution, meeting our local need and not those of a Kingdom, some 12 thousand miles away.

    I was born in the UK but I find it abhorrent that Australia still adheres so much to the Mother country, evidenced by our reluctance for republicanism.

  30. It will be very difficult to find any newspaper that is more anti Labor than the Daily Telegraph. e.g. Transport is still a huge issue but you will never hear a single criticism of the present governement. Another example is BoF is introducing his own workchoices but not a single note of disapproval from the DT. If this was Labor the first thing that they would say would be no mandate.

  31. [ruawake 7743:

    Gillard “Stop writing crap”

    Swan “The Daily Telegraph in Sydney is constantly opposing a price on carbon. It doesn’t care how it does it,”

    Brown has said numerous times that the Australian has an agenda against the Greens (which is actually true)

    Thank you for confirming you were making stuff up. Taking quotes out of context seems to be the modern liberal party modus operandi.

    Gillard was not blaming the press, she was asking them to stop writing crap – surely you agree that lots of crap has been written.

    Swan said newspapers could have any editorial opinion they like, but to be honest.

    Bob Brown has not reverted to anything, if a newspaper says it is going to destroy your party surely he has a right to fight back?]

    You do do analysis.

    Believe it or not, I’m pleased, as I take notice of what you have to say.

  32. Shock Horror someone on the Contrarians complaining that news articles in newspapers are now 90% opinion rather than fact !!

  33. 7117 tpf
    [A winner does not blame other people for their own problems. They do not feel sorry for themselves. They do not try to get sympathy for themselves by being emotionally manipulative and crying in public. They do not play the victim of the mean cruel world.

    A winner grabs the world by the balls and makes it their bitch. A winner doesn’t complain about the “narrative” – they make their own narrative by force of their own personality.

    This is Julia Gillard and Labor’s problem. They have no confidence in themselves; they are unable to project leadership and authority. They are losers – and they give the impression that they know they are losers. So why would the voters treat them any differently when it comes time to vote?]

    Utter tosh! Name an occasion when Gillard has complained about anything. Name an occasion when Abbott hasn’t had a whinge or a complaint about something. Has actually said something positive about this country.

    Surely you remember when Gillard mentioned she’d be going to Afghanistan alone. She said she’d offered to include Abbott but he declined. Then Abbott tells these porkies about having to stay jetlag free to attend the Tory conference in the UK and so would go separately. Got caught out on that one.

    Then after he returned he spent about a week moaning to Alan Jones about Gillard’s “Act of Low Bastardry.” To this day I’m unsure what he was complaining about, unless it was that Gillard knew he’d put his foot in his mouth and set him up.

    If you like to back winners rather than whingers, you’d better get off Abbott.

  34. [my say
    Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 12:56 pm | Permalink
    A tiny ray of hope for ABC watchers.

    This am Martin Ferguson was very cross about getting a call from Mark Scott over the Australian Television network tender. Ferguson interpreted it as a threat to damage the government if Cabinet interfered in the tendering process.

    where did you hear this news is their a link]

    Sorry to get back so late, My Say, been working. It was in AM this morning. You may be able to pick it up either in transcript or download. It was one of the last items, about 0825 from memory.

  35. [Glen
    Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    Stunt for the Day…

    Wayne Swan saying the Telegraph is not a balanced newspaper. What a dill!

    You know Labor are in trouble when they start attacking the Press 😀 ]

    It was said in answer from a reporter’s query following Brown’s aim of having an enquiry into the media. In context, it was quite interesting: that the Telegraph seemed to have taken over from The Australian. Now this is the critical bit:

    Swan stated he did not object in the slightest to the newspapers, or their owners opinions, only to the deliberate distortion and misreporting of the facts. If you get Crikey, there is one issue showing the front pages of the Tele, The Hun, the C-M, The Advertiser. All of them are showing emotional horseshit. Nothing to do with reporting the news unless you believe Fox News is news.

    Stephen Mayne, a founder of Crikey and once a Liberal candidate was interviewed said that he had never seen anything like the News Ltd campaign to remove an elected government from office. (Perhaps he wasn’t old enough to remember what happened to the Whitlam government in 1974-75.)

    The destabilizing defies basic integrity, as the fake ridiculing of the set top box program shows. The OO fake outrage against the NBN with its many falsehoods and quite devious slurs against its chief executive, whose integrity is not in dispute another example. And they have almost managed to get it accepted into the Australian psyche that the BER was a ‘waste’ or failure, when there is no serious evidence of that in the recent report.

    I was brought up on the old axiom that cheats never prosper, and I’d like to think it was true. Keating got away with one against the GST in 93, but the ultimate karma was that it led to 11 years of Howard from 96. So we all paid for it.

    On that basis I’d like to believe that Abbott and News Ltd will eventually get theirs. Certainly there has been a good start in what is happening to News International in the UK.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 158 of 158
1 157 158