Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Another day (week, anyway), another near-record bad poll for Labor. This time it’s a face-to-face Morgan poll, which used to be the most favourable series going for Labor but has ceased to be so since the recent nosedive in their polling fortunes. The latest result combines the last two weekends of surveying and has the Labor primary vote plunging further from 35 per cent to 31.5 per cent – either a record low for Morgan face-to-face, or something very close to it – with the Coalition up from 46.5 per cent to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 11.5 per cent. In keeping with the recent trend, there is a wide gap between the two-party score as measured by respondent allocation (58.5-41.5, up from 54.5 to 45.5 a fortnight ago) and the results of the previous election (56.5-43.5, up from 53.5-46.5).

UPDATE (11/7): The latest Essential Research poll shows – guess what – its worst result for Labor ever. The Coalition lead is now 57-43, up from 56-44 last time, with primary votes of 50 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 30 per cent for Labor (down two) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). The monthly reading of leaders’ personal ratings concurs with Newspoll in having Julia Gillard on 29 per cent approval (down five) and 62 per cent disapproval (up eight), and Tony Abbott leading Gillard as preferred prime minister 39 per cent to 37 per cent. Abbott’s ratings are 39 per cent approval (up one) and 49 per cent disapproval (up one). Support for carbon pricing has further deteriorated, with support down three to 35 per cent and opposition up four to 53 per cent. This of course was conducted entirely before yesterday’s policy announcement. Most intriguingly for election buffs, there is a question on the preferred voting system – though they’ve squibbed it in my opinion by not including proportional representation. It is found that 44 per cent would prefer first past the post, which some will no doubt dishonestly interpret as representing majority support for that system. However, the two kinds of preferential voting on offer collectively accounted for 48 per cent – 22 per cent for the compulsory preferential system we have at federal level, and 26 per cent for the optional preferential system which they have for New South Wales and Victorian state elections, and which Britain recently voted against in its “AV” referendum. Eighty-two per cent say they would or probably would vote if voting were voluntary; unfortunately, respondents were not asked if they thought compulsory vote a good idea. There’s also some stuff there on the foreign aid budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe