Another day (week, anyway), another near-record bad poll for Labor. This time it’s a face-to-face Morgan poll, which used to be the most favourable series going for Labor but has ceased to be so since the recent nosedive in their polling fortunes. The latest result combines the last two weekends of surveying and has the Labor primary vote plunging further from 35 per cent to 31.5 per cent – either a record low for Morgan face-to-face, or something very close to it – with the Coalition up from 46.5 per cent to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 11.5 per cent. In keeping with the recent trend, there is a wide gap between the two-party score as measured by respondent allocation (58.5-41.5, up from 54.5 to 45.5 a fortnight ago) and the results of the previous election (56.5-43.5, up from 53.5-46.5).
UPDATE (11/7): The latest Essential Research poll shows – guess what – its worst result for Labor ever. The Coalition lead is now 57-43, up from 56-44 last time, with primary votes of 50 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 30 per cent for Labor (down two) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). The monthly reading of leaders’ personal ratings concurs with Newspoll in having Julia Gillard on 29 per cent approval (down five) and 62 per cent disapproval (up eight), and Tony Abbott leading Gillard as preferred prime minister 39 per cent to 37 per cent. Abbott’s ratings are 39 per cent approval (up one) and 49 per cent disapproval (up one). Support for carbon pricing has further deteriorated, with support down three to 35 per cent and opposition up four to 53 per cent. This of course was conducted entirely before yesterday’s policy announcement. Most intriguingly for election buffs, there is a question on the preferred voting system – though they’ve squibbed it in my opinion by not including proportional representation. It is found that 44 per cent would prefer first past the post, which some will no doubt dishonestly interpret as representing majority support for that system. However, the two kinds of preferential voting on offer collectively accounted for 48 per cent – 22 per cent for the compulsory preferential system we have at federal level, and 26 per cent for the optional preferential system which they have for New South Wales and Victorian state elections, and which Britain recently voted against in its “AV” referendum. Eighty-two per cent say they would or probably would vote if voting were voluntary; unfortunately, respondents were not asked if they thought compulsory vote a good idea. There’s also some stuff there on the foreign aid budget.
Gold going through the roof at the monent. Euro through the floor…Europeane markets diving…. time for the money printers to pump some billions in to keep the balloon inflated.
Last thing govt needs is economic tsunami, or maybe it will be a saviour for them.
Its over guys. The ALP cannot recover from this Newspoll (and Nielsen and Essential and Morgan). The only option left to ALP members is seppuku. Just like Coalition members committed seppuku on mass in 2008 after those horrible polls. How sad that we no longer have any major parties in Australia because the polls killed them off.
And Ms Gillard finishes very strongly.
Final score:
30 neg; 6 mid; 3 pro.
[Thomas Paine
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:33 pm | Permalink
42/58 Rudd was knifed at 52/48
Mistake much?]
If so, then, today Prime Minister Tony Abbott would be re-introducing Serfchoice.
[Mithrandir
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:36 pm | Permalink
Its over guys. The ALP cannot recover from this Newspoll (and Nielsen and Essential and Morgan). The only option left to ALP members is seppuku. Just like Coalition members committed seppuku on mass in 2008 after those horrible polls. How sad that we no longer have any major parties in Australia because the polls killed them off.
]
And the election is how long away ?
[With that, farewell. I’m sure that nobody cares.]
I care and I share your view about the Malaysian solution.
…and if you are who it was suggested you may be last night I thank you for your efforts on the asylum seeker issue (if not, or if you have no idea what I am talking about just ignore this paragraph)
Oooh, look! Another one!
Don’t hold your breath TJ
[Oooh, look! Another one!]
The troll mincer keeps pumpin’ em out
ducky
norty
😉
The PM nailed that one big time.
And Jones redeemed himself a little with that last comment about trying to get Abbott on the show.
🙂
TP
There are two bits of the real world that are lurking, lurking, lurking…
One is the one you refer to. You might have added that real Chinese debt is 150% of GDP.
The other one is the CO2 ppm… growing, growing, growing.
Either or both could wipe the entire current ‘reality’ off the map.
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Oh no, not La Trioli #qanda
1 minute ago
[Mr Jones with another neg follow up. The prick* is trying to lead on policy by asking for a guarantee. Forget neutrality.
30 neg; 4 mid; 2 pro.
*very rare ad hominem by Boerwar who is being pushed beyond reason by unreasonable situation.]
This is what some of us here have been trying to impress on others…..it’s ‘the narrative’…it’s written in the stars or some such bull crap.
Tony will be crowned.
And Tony Jones, Fran Kelly, Chris Toolman, Virginia Trioli, Melissa LibsR
Us Clark and the big tall bloke next to Trioli and a few others will all have jobs in Toxic Tony’s Spa Room….I’ll leave the rest to your imagination.
And it’s goodnight from BK.
Glory
Some of us do care
I like healthy debate
Sure there is the fan club and some genuine trolls but there are also others interested in discussion.
[And the election is how long away ?]
That has become the million dollar question. How many ALP backbenchers do you know Frank?
[Gold going through the roof at the monent. Euro through the floor…Europeane markets diving…. time for the money printers to pump some billions in to keep the balloon inflated.
Last thing govt needs is economic tsunami, or maybe it will be a saviour for them.]
TP, I wouldn’t be suprised if a new external economic shock scared people enough to reset the political agenda completely.
Bluey points out that the latest Newspoll validates his Bluey trend that the ALP pv will be 0% by around 1 December with an MOE of about a week either side of that date.
But Bluey does remind those who follow his investment advice that past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
[5958
rosemour
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:39 pm | Permalink
Mr Jones with another neg follow up. The prick* is trying to lead on policy by asking for a guarantee. Forget neutrality.
30 neg; 4 mid; 2 pro.
*very rare ad hominem by Boerwar who is being pushed beyond reason by unreasonable situation.
This is what some of us here have been trying to impress on others…..it’s ‘the narrative’…it’s written in the stars or some such bull crap.
Tony will be crowned.
And Tony Jones, Fran Kelly, Chris Toolman, Virginia Trioli, Melissa LibsR
Us Clark and the big tall bloke next to Trioli and a few others will all have jobs in Toxic Tony’s Spa Room….I’ll leave the rest to your imagination.
]
And aided and abetted by naysayers like you and Glory.
Either you fight them and help; lLabor – or you roll over to them
You sir are in the latter category.
You are NOT True Labor.
Well done the lady from the red corner! And in the blue corner we have … oops, where did he go?
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:40 pm | Permalink
And the election is how long away ?
That has become the million dollar question. How many ALP backbenchers do you know Frank?
]
More than you ever will – and they are confident.
Next……
New thread up. Sorry can’t add link.
QandA Summary:
Questions (except last two); “Bugger the planet, bugger the kids, what about me, me, me, me, me?
Answers: Bit of a shaky start with the rubbish tip analogy, but building to a climax with “CSIRO v Alan Jones. CSIRO v Alan Jones, hmmm” GOLD
Final Score:
Questioners (selfish pricks) 0
Prime Minister: 1
[GeorgeMichael George Michael
by Colvinius
Just spoke to my lawyer…. apparently they want to interview me about my comments on Rebekah Brooks here on twitter…
]
[Glinner Graham Linehan
by Colvinius
Holy shit! RT @BBCMichaelCrick: I hear that Gordon Brown going to make statement re activities of Sunday Times this afternoon.
]
Frank Calabrese
[And the election is how long away ?]
The Constitution says that when polls are 52%+ in favour to the Coalition, for more than 1 week, News Limited can call an early election.
What, Mr Abbott is not going to subject himself to Mr Jones?
To quote someone well-known to all posters, ‘Gutless,’ ‘Cowardly’ and ‘Dodging scrutiny.’
latikambourke Latika Bourke
Solid performance from the PM although fair few Dixers. Question is, is it too late…? #QandA
@latikambourke How many Dixers did you think Latika? I’d say six out of 30 odd plus a couple of neutrals. Every Jones comment a negative.
Sk – thanks for your kind words – they will go on the front of the fridge to remind OH;)
Saw your tweet on Q&A and Markjs. Good on yer, guys.
gloryconsequence stay around, I would also see some constructive debate on this site between political opponents. it shouldn’t be a club for one view of the world.
[Mithrandir
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
Frank Calabrese
And the election is how long away ?
The Constitution says that when polls are 52%+ in favour to the Coalition, for more than 1 week, News Limited can call an early election.
]
Murdoch is a tad busy atm to worry about pithy elections atm 🙂
Next…..
[5974
Gixxer Man
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
gloryconsequence stay around, I would also see some constructive debate on this site between political opponents. it shouldn’t be a club for one view of the world.
]
I’m sorry,
That wasn’t constructive criticism – it was complete capitulation.
Try Recent posts on the right.
The consequences of faceless men playing with democracy as if it were their own little toy, and slapping the face of the Australian public.
Fortunately the Senate will keep Abbott under control.
So despite the positive acceptance of pricing pollution the polls go backward again. It is just too easy for the OO sometimes.
geez
joe has got fatter
I swear his jowls are wobbly
Glory, if you want to go, go, or not. Discussion here can be good at times and one can learn a lot. sometimes its pretty funny as well.
Some posters get a bit silly, over the top and/or impolite, probably most of us here at one time or another but that’s just something that i think comes with the territory.
When it comes down to it its just the internet, dont lose any sleep over it.
And ALWAYS keep in mind how long a day, week or even year is in politics. Things look utterly crappy for the forces of light and goodness at the moment. Evil toe-rags are having their day in the sun / 15 minutes of fame, whatever.
Don’t care what the polls are like even just before the big day in 2013. I’ll still be out there being polite and handing out the cards, doing what can be done.
I suspect that IF this govt goes down, it will be fighting a fight worth having.
5612
[The way I see it, as such,there would be no need for Parliament to approve either. In fact I believe the coal package will not go before Parliament.
Perhaps the steel package is going to Parliament more as a political measure than anything.
Please, anyone, correct me if I am wrong.]
I think you’re better informed than I am, Doyley. Maybe the steel thing might be to expose Abbott. But I’d certainly be inclined to avoid putting the Greens in the hot seat. I expect they’d back it if the whole show depended on it, but they’d be happier without it.
If the compensation can be managed without legislation, I agree, it would be better that way.
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@JuliaGillard Dear PM, you are doing the right thing by Australia. Stick to your gun and stare them down #auspol
6 seconds ago
[That has become the million dollar question. How many ALP backbenchers do you know Frank?]
ModLib
spoke to one today. Absolutely no chance of changing their minds. 100% behind the policy and PM
[42/58 Rudd was knifed at 52/48
Mistake much? ]
Ugh. As pointed out by William before, you’re basing this Rudd figure on ONE outlier poll. That aside, you’re missing two important factors here.
1. An election isn’t coming up. Yes, 42/58 is a very bad result and that can’t be denied, but there’s a long time to go before the poll that counts and this polling would have been largely conducted before the carbon price details were fully released. Its not time to go into full panic stations, and Gillard has been realistic about it taking a while to turn around.
2. Gillard is governing in a way that isn’t alienating her own party. If Rudd had been governing in a more respectful way, I seriously doubt there would have been so many wanting him gone. Not because of his awesomeness, but because elements of his style were dysfunctional.
Not that this will stop the usual ‘RUDD WAS KNIFED BY FACELESS MEN!’ hysteria.
The PB Pro Gillard Spam bots when into over drive in the last ten minutes of QandA.
rummel,
Is that all you got?
Pathetic.
crazyjane13 Marian Dalton
by SpaceKidette
News flash, idiots: Gillard doesn’t HAVE to convince the electorate. The govt can just pass the law. She’s doing this as a courtesy to you.
[MightyChewbacca Ross McGregor
by zackster
Why were all the workers frowning at coal mine when Abbott went to visit them today? Cause they remember WorkChoices, Tony u cock #auspol
]
BH,
I am glad I can be of assistance!
Did I have a tweet on #qanda? I missed it!
If the Gillard Govt. is to go down I, as a lifetime labor supporter, will be more than proud to go down with her. She is an incredibly courageous PM. If Abbott has one percent of her courage we may, as a nation, just get by. He hasn’t and we wont.
As you’re pleasuring yourselves over this poll just remember that the government will still be the government and the Libs will still be in opposition very likely at least for the next two years at least. Enjoy.
5989
You were the first, SK – or at least the first I saw. Very positive for the PM.
Best bit of the entire qanda was the old fella, Peter Leith, with his thank you to the PM for putting together a carbon pricing system on behalf of himself, his children and his grandchildren.
PM handled herself pretty well, and if the audience was marginally hostile it levelled out a bit with + tweets.
I thought she won a bit of respect. There’s a few like rosemour think that she can’t win, not sure why, but maybe that’s how the punters in general are.
There’s a long way to go yet.
Mod Lib
You’re quick to spell doom for the PM. Some months back you said that she had to do something necessary but not popular and see it through regardless of backlash, in order to win respect.
Well, she’s on the verge of that now with carbon pricing, which will remain a tricky one even when covered with goodies like tax reform.
If she sees that through, surely then she will deserve respect, no?