Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Another day (week, anyway), another near-record bad poll for Labor. This time it’s a face-to-face Morgan poll, which used to be the most favourable series going for Labor but has ceased to be so since the recent nosedive in their polling fortunes. The latest result combines the last two weekends of surveying and has the Labor primary vote plunging further from 35 per cent to 31.5 per cent – either a record low for Morgan face-to-face, or something very close to it – with the Coalition up from 46.5 per cent to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 11.5 per cent. In keeping with the recent trend, there is a wide gap between the two-party score as measured by respondent allocation (58.5-41.5, up from 54.5 to 45.5 a fortnight ago) and the results of the previous election (56.5-43.5, up from 53.5-46.5).

UPDATE (11/7): The latest Essential Research poll shows – guess what – its worst result for Labor ever. The Coalition lead is now 57-43, up from 56-44 last time, with primary votes of 50 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 30 per cent for Labor (down two) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). The monthly reading of leaders’ personal ratings concurs with Newspoll in having Julia Gillard on 29 per cent approval (down five) and 62 per cent disapproval (up eight), and Tony Abbott leading Gillard as preferred prime minister 39 per cent to 37 per cent. Abbott’s ratings are 39 per cent approval (up one) and 49 per cent disapproval (up one). Support for carbon pricing has further deteriorated, with support down three to 35 per cent and opposition up four to 53 per cent. This of course was conducted entirely before yesterday’s policy announcement. Most intriguingly for election buffs, there is a question on the preferred voting system – though they’ve squibbed it in my opinion by not including proportional representation. It is found that 44 per cent would prefer first past the post, which some will no doubt dishonestly interpret as representing majority support for that system. However, the two kinds of preferential voting on offer collectively accounted for 48 per cent – 22 per cent for the compulsory preferential system we have at federal level, and 26 per cent for the optional preferential system which they have for New South Wales and Victorian state elections, and which Britain recently voted against in its “AV” referendum. Eighty-two per cent say they would or probably would vote if voting were voluntary; unfortunately, respondents were not asked if they thought compulsory vote a good idea. There’s also some stuff there on the foreign aid budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,001 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  7. Let’s just hope it’s Gillard standing at the podium in 2 years, smile on her face, cheers all round, with the opening statement: “This is a victory for the true believers”.

    Because I can’t imagine the alternative.

  12. finns

    btw

    why has fatima stopped posting her ‘tits out” frock pictures, the last one was from the parl ball

    now there was an attempt at journalism

    😉

  16. 1. Rupert will not disintegrate

    2. The Rupe bots will ensure that, on Sunday, our prime minister’s announcements will be Fuded.

  20. These polls remind me of living on a farm during a drought. Every morning you would go out, have a look at a blue sky, no rain.

    Endure. Years of it, sometimes.

    Then, one day, it would rain. Beautiful rain. The earth would absorb the water and new growth would start.

    Wonderful.

    It is going to happen, folks.

  25. gloryconsequence@7

    Let’s just hope it’s Gillard standing at the podium in 2 years, smile on her face, cheers all round, with the opening statement: “This is a victory for the true believers”.

    Because I can’t imagine the alternative.

    Agree.

    Labor have to concentrate on getting stuff into law. If they do that and are still voted out, I won’t like it but will accept it.

    And I’ll be buggered if I’ll leave the country. I wait as long as it takes to see abbott come a cropper if he manages to win in 2013.

    Labor have to keep its nose clean in the meantime. I’m sure the lib dirt units are checking stuff they have already checked before.

  32. Endure. Years of it, sometimes.

    Then, one day, it would rain. Beautiful rain. The earth would absorb the water and new growth would start.

    Wonderful.

    It is going to happen, folks.

    You’re right BW. Think it will take a while, but you’re right.

  35. g

    Two years is an enormously long time in politics. It would be over 700 24x7s.

    IMHO, Mr Abbott is less likely to survive until the election than Ms Gillard.

    His personal figures are way worse than his Party’s. He has offended numerous peoples on his own side.

    And even the ones he has not actually offended, don’t like him very much.

  37. Mr Cameron must resign.

    The LibDems should withdraw from the Coalition and vote no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government. Her Majesty then should commission a new government.

    God save the Queen!

    Because nothing will save Mr Murdoch.

  38. Are we seriously meant to believe that NOTW hacked 4000 people and no other news (esp News) organisation has hacked a single person?

  39. [Labor have to concentrate on getting stuff into law. If they do that and are still voted out, I won’t like it but will accept it.]
    Yes. Passing the ETS will be worth losing an election over.

  41. [IMHO, Mr Abbott is less likely to survive until the election than Ms Gillard.]

    This is actually my fear – that Abbott won’t survive. If Hockey or Turnbull get the Liberal Leadership, Gillard’s toast.

    The only thing keeping Labor afloat, is Abbott.

  42. *We want Frank!*

    *We want Frank!*

    They cheer!

    [Mr Bowe has returned from holidays with Frank Calabrese, sparking renewed hope that the latter will return to Poll Bludger shortly.]

  43. dio

    [Are we seriously meant to believe that NOTW hacked 4000 people and no other news (esp News) organisation has hacked a single person?]

    only those with blindfolds or News Ltd obligations are believers in the NOTW lone wolf meme

  44. [BREAKING NEWS:

    Former Downing Street communications chief Andy Coulson is arrested in connection with phone hacking scandal]

    Source: BBC News Online

    Mr Cameron must resign.

  49. 38

    Diogenes

    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    [Are we seriously meant to believe that NOTW hacked 4000 people and no other news (esp News) organisation has hacked a single person?]

    Depends who WE is Diogenes.

  50. [ If Hockey or Turnbull get the Liberal Leadership, Gillard’s toast.]

    Why? Because they’ll be more effective at the “no” message? How will Turnbull appear credible if he has to fight against what he believes (NBN, climate action, etc)? And if a Turnbull works together with the government so as not to block or hinder progressive policy, how will that help him get voted in?

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