Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 27 per cent for Labor (down -3), 49 per cent for the Coalition (up +3) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up +1). More to follow, though probably not until tomorrow.

UPDATE (13/7/11): Very bad news for the government from a Galaxy survey of 500 respondents conducted on Monday night, which finds essentially no change in opinion on the carbon tax: only 29 per cent say that, “based on what you have seen or heard about the carbon tax”, they are supportive; fully 60 per cent are opposed. Galaxy has again pointlessly asked respondents if they think Gillard has a mandate for the tax or should instead call an election, a false dichotomy I railed against when they asked it six weeks ago, but since they have also asked the more sensible question it’s not such a problem. Terrifyingly for the government, only 10 per cent believe they will be better off under the carbon tax against 68 per cent worse off, despite what the Treasury modelling has to say on the subject.

UPDATE 2 (14/7/11): Essential Research has also published results for a question on the exclusion of fuel from the carbon tax, conducted for the Ten Network. I presume this formed part of last week’s survey, and was thus conducted before Sunday’s announcement. It has 30 per cent declaring themselves more likely to support the tax on the basis of the exclusion of fuel, 11 per cent less likely and 52 per cent saying it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,896 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  3. QandA Summary:

    Questions (except last two); “Bugger the planet, bugger the kids, what about me, me, me, me, me?

    Answers: Bit of a shaky start with the rubbish tip analogy, but building to a climax with “CSIRO v Alan Jones. CSIRO v Alan Jones, hmmm” GOLD

    Final Score:

    Questioners (selfish pricks) 0
    Prime Minister: 1

  7. Bugger the Polls, I say (sorry William)… that was a mighty performance by Julia…and they broadcast my tweet at the end..

    “Our children will remember you as a bold, brave & visionary PM…….but they won’t remember Abbott at all #qanda”

    Julia will get this done and the polls will gradually turn around as people realise this country has a real leader once again…GO JULIA 🙂 🙂 🙂

  9. [ If so, then, today Prime Minister Tony Abbott would be re-introducing Serfchoice.

    The consequences of faceless men playing with democracy as if it were their own little toy, and slapping the face of the Australian public.

    Fortunately the Senate will keep Abbott under control.

  10. From the OO Article:

    [Support for the Coalition rose three percentage points to 49 per cent its highest primary votes since October 2001]

    And which event took place just weeks prior ? 🙂

  13. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:34 pm | Permalink
    I think it’s time I have a break from this place. Maybe a permanent one.

    For anyone who cares, I have always voted Labor, and will always vote Labor. It’s in my blood. My uncle contested a Federal seat in the past. My father was a political analyst at an Adelaide uni.

    I came here hoping for political discussion. I have tried to fit in and get to “know” the personalities around here.

    But most importantly, I’ve tried to be honest. There is a serious disconnect amongst this forum and the wider community. If you actually spent time discussing the nature of the current political climate in the country, rather than slap each other on the back, it would help.

    It’s been suggested around here that I’m either a remorseful Rudd fan or a Lib troll. Neither is true – I support the Labor leader.

    Does that mean I agree with everything? No. I think the Malaysian Solution is perhaps the worst political stance Labor has taken in its history.

    Overwhelmingly, I support Labor and what we stand for. I support the PM. I will vote for her.

    But for people to sit here and suggest “things will be OK” is ludicrous. The people are not listening to the Prime Minister. She has burned her bridges with the electorate.

    I can’t say Tony Abbott will be the next Prime Minister. But I can with confidence that Julia will not be.

    With that, farewell. I’m sure that nobody cares.]

    I know what you mean – if you’re still here.

    This blog has become a bit of a group wa*k with Big Frank as the bouncer.

    The daretotread post @ 2 above illustrates perfectly the delusional tosh that has these tru-ish believers in it’s grip.

    If tonight’s QandA is anything to go by the ALP are even more stuffed than I thought.

  14. confessions
    When was the poll taken? It was pubished in the wake of the CT announcement but when was the polling done?

  15. So despite the positive acceptance of pricing pollution the polls go backward again. It is just too easy for the OO sometimes.

  18. [I know what you mean – if you’re still here.

    This blog has become a bit of a group wa*k with Big Frank as the bouncer.

    The daretotread post @ 2 above illustrates perfectly the delusional tosh that has these tru-ish believers in it’s grip.

    If tonight’s QandA is anything to go by the ALP are even more stuffed than I thought.
    ]

    And you’re the biggest W**ker of the lot.

    It’s called standing up for your party.

    Try it sometime.

  19. 14: Normal Friday to Sunday poll apparently. So before the announcement, but after most of the good news (compensation and no tax on fuel) had already been leaked

  21. [Boerwar

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    confessions
    When was the poll taken? It was pubished in the wake of the CT announcement but when was the polling done?
    ]

    I reckon Thursday to Saturday.

  22. [And you’re the biggest W**ker of the lot.

    It’s called standing up for your party.

    Try it sometime.]

    I think the psychologists call it denial actually.

  23. crazyjane13 Marian Dalton
    by SpaceKidette
    News flash, idiots: Gillard doesn’t HAVE to convince the electorate. The govt can just pass the law. She’s doing this as a courtesy to you.

  24. [confessions
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:48 pm | Permalink
    More crap polls for Labor in the wake of the CT announcement.]

    You see…there we go again.
    It’s isn’t in the wake of the CT announcement for crisakes…it’s in the wake of Toxic Tony’s relentless campaign against the government and the government failure to MEET TONY HEAD ON.
    I’m beginning to think Julia has a crush on him.

  25. Still and all.

    Let’s say that Mr Abbott gets in, trashes our Clean Energy Future, and flubbs his Direct Action Plan, re-introduces serf choices and flogs off the iron and coal for nowt.

    There is one ray of sunshine.

    All the extra warmth is going to be good for my artharitis in my declining years.

    Every cloud.

  26. [22

    Mod Lib

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    And you’re the biggest W**ker of the lot.

    It’s called standing up for your party.

    Try it sometime.

    I think the psychologists call it denial actually.
    ]

    No – it’s called loyalty.

    Try it sometine.

  29. [rosemour

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    confessions
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:48 pm | Permalink
    More crap polls for Labor in the wake of the CT announcement.

    You see…there we go again.
    It’s isn’t in the wake of the CT announcement for crisakes…it’s in the wake of Toxic Tony’s relentless campaign against the government and the government failure to MEET TONY HEAD ON.
    I’m beginning to think Julia has a crush on him.
    ]

    Or is it YOU has the Mancrush on Abbott with your every post.

  31. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    I seem to remember when PJK floated the dollar, the sky was also supposed to fall #auspol
    now

  32. G

    It is the dog/chop principle.

    You know about the kid who was that unloveable that his mother had to tie a chop to his neck to get the family dog to play with him?

    For some of our billionaires, swap ‘money’ for ‘chop’.

  33. [And you’re the biggest W**ker of the lot.]

    Oh dear Frank, run out of rational argument have we?

    Here, I’ll stand up for my party….it’s all going to be great, Julia is great, the polls are great, it’s all too great, gosh aren’t we doing well, isn’t that Tony a naughty boy, hooray for us, hooray, hooray.

    Okay?

  34. [rosemour
    if tonight’s QandA is anything to go by the ALP are even more stuffed than I thought.]
    Mr Abbott can only avoid the scrutinism that the PM is all-to-happy to accept for so long before he starts to look less of an ironman.

  36. [Amico, forget the nasty troll; he is gunning for you to be banned.]

    Frank, agree, he’s an f-wit nothing, ignore him

  37. [33

    rosemour

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    And you’re the biggest W**ker of the lot.

    Oh dear Frank, run out of rational argument have we?

    Here, I’ll stand up for my party….it’s all going to be great, Julia is great, the polls are great, it’s all too great, gosh aren’t we doing well, isn’t that Tony a naughty boy, hooray for us, hooray, hooray.

    Okay?
    ]

    To quote Boerwar:

    [30

    Boerwar

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    Amico, forget the nasty troll; he is gunning for you to be banned.
    ]

    🙂

  39. I did actually say last week that at least two polls would already be in the field timed to come out and smother the early days of the selling process.

    The polls themselves are not biased but in at least once case the company who commissions them dictates the timing.

    Given the gotcha attempts of the host and the heavy bias towards anti questions I thought the PM did well. It was interesting at the end that the audience seemed really supportive.

    With regard to the host’s performance my own bias shone through during the show, but all I ask is the same rigor is applied to Mr Abbott if he ever shows up.

  41. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:53 pm | Permalink
    Still and all.

    Let’s say that Mr Abbott gets in, trashes our Clean Energy Future, and flubbs his Direct Action Plan, re-introduces serf choices and flogs off the iron and coal for nowt.

    There is one ray of sunshine.

    All the extra warmth is going to be good for my artharitis in my declining years.

    Every cloud.]

    Jeez Frank, I wish I’d written this bollocks.

  45. Goshome

    I agree that the PM sailed well through heavy weather. She finished on a strong note.

    IMHO, today’s Essential will be the lowest Essential and today’s Newspoll will be the lowest Newspoll.

  49. [Jeez Frank, I wish I’d written this bollocks.]

    speaking of bollocks, do you tie them around your shoulder like a regimental soldier?

  50. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Rupert Murdoch is remoured to be bidding for the exclusive right to CarbonPollution permit so he can keep on polluting the media #auspol
    56 seconds ago

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