Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 27 per cent for Labor (down -3), 49 per cent for the Coalition (up +3) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up +1). More to follow, though probably not until tomorrow.

UPDATE (13/7/11): Very bad news for the government from a Galaxy survey of 500 respondents conducted on Monday night, which finds essentially no change in opinion on the carbon tax: only 29 per cent say that, “based on what you have seen or heard about the carbon tax”, they are supportive; fully 60 per cent are opposed. Galaxy has again pointlessly asked respondents if they think Gillard has a mandate for the tax or should instead call an election, a false dichotomy I railed against when they asked it six weeks ago, but since they have also asked the more sensible question it’s not such a problem. Terrifyingly for the government, only 10 per cent believe they will be better off under the carbon tax against 68 per cent worse off, despite what the Treasury modelling has to say on the subject.

UPDATE 2 (14/7/11): Essential Research has also published results for a question on the exclusion of fuel from the carbon tax, conducted for the Ten Network. I presume this formed part of last week’s survey, and was thus conducted before Sunday’s announcement. It has 30 per cent declaring themselves more likely to support the tax on the basis of the exclusion of fuel, 11 per cent less likely and 52 per cent saying it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,896 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 158
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  1. rosemour

    Have you booked your ticket for the Liberal Party’s 400ppm victory celebration party? It is going to be great. All the Do-nothings will be there. They will celebrate their inaction over 25 years. Great stuff.

  2. Same place as last Nielsen.

    What goes down can also go up.

    All the PM can do is fight on.

    Still two years to go. I know some will laugh at the two years to go line by saying we should look at the real world and admit all is lost.

    Well, if they can cut and paste their gloating every poll well I can continue to cut and paste my belief that labor can come back before 2013.

    I thought the PM did very well tonight and I think the questioning she got did her more good than bad in the eyes of those watching.

  3. Didn’t care to catch up with the flame stuff happening on the previous thread. Tedious to say the least, IMO. However, just got back from dinner out to see the PM on Q&A. She’s just fantastic. She listens to the question and answers it. She’s respectful, inclusive. She’s clearly committed and caring.

    Apart from the ‘keep repeating a lie long and loud enough’ Goebbals approach operating in the MSM, I don’t understand the negative reaction to the PM. I really don’t.

    Wouldn’t it be luverly if Murdoch’s empire got ‘got’ by the U.S. legal system, apropos of their bribing of the Metropolitan Police?

    I’d laugh like a drain.

    Bloody awful Newspoll for us.

    Now if Limited News gets into strife internationally, like really, in the interview without the coffee type scenario, are the combined tightening of Limited News sphincters going to lower the old anthropogenic generated gases?

  5. [Guys, why do you think Abbott made the comment today that his political future rests on defeating the carbon price?]

    Just saw that again. I wonder if he’s been warned? More likely, even Mr Abbott lets the media dictate to him what to think, or at least frame the limits of what seems to be politically possible.. I’ve read that analysis or similar a couple of times.

  6. [Given the gotcha attempts of the host and the heavy bias towards anti questions I thought the PM did well. It was interesting at the end that the audience seemed really supportive. ]

    Maybe they were being selective, but that definitely came through in the twitters posted towards the end of the show. Its also worth noting that in a situation and with questions that could easily have been answered with ‘blame Abbott’, rinse and repeat, the vast majority of her answers were positive and constructive. If they can get that divide (Government positive, doing things for the country, Coalition negative, doing things for their own political interest) perceived by more of the electorate, that’ll help in the end. Though granted that’s very tough to get through with so much of the media encouraging Coalition perspectives and greed.

  7. Finns
    Far too late for Mr Murdoch. Finns, Boerwar & Co patented it long ago. Profit Uber Alles, after all.
    We are worth squintillions. And the beauty is that our clients do all the advertising all by themselves. They are infested with Do-nothings so our cashflow is looking very, very strong, looking forwards.

  10. [How considered do people think it was that Ms Gillard invoked ex PM Thatcher.]
    Very, and she also mentioned John Howard two or three times to demonstrate that if the Liberal and National parties were sane, this would still be a bipartisan issue.

    But instead the Libs and Nats have adopted a policy of tax and spend socialist nonsense which would be more at home in the French socialist party circa 1968.

  11. To the selfish Australians. You want to reduce the temperature:

    1. Sell your McMansion and downsize to a smaller house
    2. Sell your 4wheel drive petrol guzzler and downsize to a petrol efficient smaller car
    3. Use more public transport
    4. Walk
    5. Turn off the lights
    6. And stop whinging and emit hot air

  12. I’d be mortified if there were an election in close proximity. However, I see that only the Tony Abbott ouijah board seancers are predicting an election any time soon.

    Two years is a long time trying to maintain the rage when you get the benefits and nothing really happens to you and your family.

    Will people be happy if the sky does not fall.

  14. Gus

    I changed my name to Gayle but have been stuck in moderation since 5 o’clock. I had to change back to blackdog.

  16. Geez…I didn’t know so many Labor supporters were so lily-livered…

    This is hard…economy changing reform…we said we wanted a PM who wasn’t driven by focus groups and/or opinion polls….who wasn’t a Murdoch a*se-licking sycophant…who was prepared to take the hard decisions for the good of the country and the future of our children…

    We’ve got one…and some of you want run for the shelter and go all weak in the spine…Well make up your mind exactly what you want…and do something about achieving it, and stop moaning.

    That 80+ bloke and the young man at the end of QandA showed more optimism about the future than some on here…I’m fed up with the naysayers and whingers wherever they hang out & whatever political beliefs they hold…

    Rant over…I’m going to bed…

  17. [I agree that the PM sailed well through heavy weather. She finished on a strong note.

    IMHO, today’s Essential will be the lowest Essential and today’s Newspoll will be the lowest Newspoll. ]

    I’d like to think so. All we can do is wait. To view it one way, expectations being set so low at least means that any rise in Labor support should be treated as a positive. On this topic, I liked Gillard’s response about the CPRS, that whatever you think of the two, only one is actually going into law.

  18. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink
    rosemour

    Why so bitter?]

    Do I have to say it again.
    Because I’m going to have to live through another freakin’ coalition government in what’s left of my life time and noone here can do anything about it except pat themselves on the back every time a crap poll comes out.

    I mean seriously, how many of you people thought the ALP in NSW was a dead cert’ in
    May? Non of you right?
    Can’t you see Gillard steaming towards Central with all boilers steaming and the throttle wide open? Sure it’s 2 years away….that just means she’ll really have a head of steam up so the ALP is well rooted for decades.
    Toot, toot….all on board. Frank, check the tickets. We don’t want any trolls on board when she blows!

  19. [If tonight’s QandA is anything to go by the ALP are even more stuffed than I thought.]

    rosemour, i have to disagree. I think the above is a silly and unfair comment, while not disputing your right to make it.

    The PM looked a bit worried at the start, and i thought it was a remarkably grim audience, little to and fro or audience reaction going on. But, instead of being freaked into incoherence ( as i think most people would have been) she kept on speaking clearly and politely even when it was apparent she was speaking to hostile blithering idiots.

    And towards the end she nailed it. Yup, the question from the old bloke about the science set the scene, and that gave her an opening. But, she had it nailed by the end and stayed positive the whole way through.

    Anyway, i think your taking the doom and gloom a bit far mate. Maybe your right, maybe not, about it all being stuffed. Don’t care. I’ll enjoy the moments i can as i can thank you very much.

  22. And to ModLib

    I have spoken a labor backbencher today and they are all 100% behind this policy. Absolutely no chance of changing.

  25. doggie

    bilbo is being tres slack

    gussie is still in moderation

    i suggest you change it afore logging off

    post under gayle and explain to bilbo, that this is your new name

    then give him a smack

    😉

  26. blackdog
    If you happen to be indigenous, there is a truly great painting in the Indigenous gallery of the National Gallery. Unfortunately, I’ve forgotten the artist but every time I go there I go for a bloody great belly laugh. It is classic take the piss Indigenous humour.

  27. Boerwar,

    If it hits you on the head with a clunk, then there probably is too much carbon in the atmosphere.

  28. Well i think Jules is stuffed and Qanda just confirmed it, no surprise there. What did surprise me tonight was the green supporters having a crack at Gillard. When will the green voters wake up and see Bob Brown sold them out and demand their pound of flesh from the leadership. I see a very large fault line forming when Brown starts to get called to account, specifically on the compo to the steel industry. Bob will spin and bounce around the issue and try and pass the buck onto labor, but i think he will actually have to answer a few tough questions. Would he not support the package to keep the 11% under one green banner?

  29. [markjs

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Geez…I didn’t know so many Labor supporters were so lily-livered…

    This is hard…economy changing reform…we said we wanted a PM who wasn’t driven by focus groups and/or opinion polls….who wasn’t a Murdoch a*se-licking sycophant…who was prepared to take the hard decisions for the good of the country and the future of our children…

    We’ve got one…and some of you want run for the shelter and go all weak in the spine…Well make up your mind exactly what you want…and do something about achieving it, and stop moaning.

    That 80+ bloke and the young man at the end of QandA showed more optimism about the future than some on here…I’m fed up with the naysayers and whingers wherever they hang out & whatever political beliefs they hold…

    Rant over…I’m going to bed…
    ]

    Hear Hear.

    I do more gor the ALP desopite all the obstacles in front of me than this bunch oweak bladdered nervous nellies who would roll ovedr and hand over their testicles and other bits to Tony Abbott.

  32. Boerwar

    No, i’m not indigenous. The name came from the greyhound I had for fourteen years until she passed away in 2004. She was black and a dog.

  34. I don’t think you can have different names on the same post from the same source.

    Apparently, it stops “knock knock” jokes.

  35. [This is hard…economy changing reform…we said we wanted a PM who wasn’t driven by focus groups and/or opinion polls….who wasn’t a Murdoch a*se-licking sycophant…who was prepared to take the hard decisions for the good of the country and the future of our children…]

    Its annoying, but its a feedback cycle that newspaper columnists and the like work off. To most of them, all success is determined by polls rather than policy. It doesn’t matter if something’s a good idea that may lead to a hit in the polls for a while, the focus is just on that hit and how disastrous that is, because vision (future) and the 24-hour media cycle (now) don’t always coexist. And you can bet that if Gillard had gone for a more poll-driven style of government, she’d have been bashed for that too. Its part of the lovely system where in some very important areas, she gets attacked no matter what she does. Hell, its the basis of Abbott’s entire style, where you can put yourself through an olympic’s worth of contortions just to stick to NO.

  38. [kimmaree_tweet Kimmaree Thompson
    by AshGhebranious
    Wow! RT @JonathanHaynes BREAKING Evening Standard: Queen’s police sold her details to News of the World bit.ly/pNwVHg #NotW @jessradio
    ]

  41. [If it hits you on the head with a clunk, then there probably is too much carbon in the atmosphere.]
    Ahhh. That’d explain why the sky is black as I look out of the window. 😉

  46. SK

    I am more and more reminded of the feelings I had when watching parts of the Japanese tsunami live on the Teev. You see it but you find it hard to believe, and you wonder where it will all end.

    Hard to credit all this even if it is obviously true.

  47. Quick Frank, another dissenting voice @ rummel 78
    skitch him Frank! Go boy! We can’t have people upsetting the groupthink.
    There’s an extra bone in it.
    Good boy.

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