Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll sees Labor’s 51-49 lead last time obliterated by a six-point shift to the Coalition, with Labor’s primary vote down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Large amounts of tosh were written about the Labor lead last fortnight, even though a lack of corroborating evidence from other polls made it clear enough the result was an aberration. No doubt there will further over-analysis of this correction – probably over-correction, with the New South Wales state election perhaps injecting a bit of static into proceedings. On the primary vote, Labor is down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-31 to 46-37.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,941 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  2. [Meh. Usual Morgan pro-Labor bias. The Coalition is really much further ahead than that.]
    Yeah, given the FTF bias to Labor the Libs would have to be 60 – 40 TPP really.

  3. Why on earth should Rudd shut up, just to satisfy the demands of Gillard’s dwindling band of supporters?
    The Foreign Minister of this country is usually among the most public of the ministers, in his/her utterances and policy decisions.
    But if we’re going to have a war here between Rudd supporters and Rudd non-supporters, bring it on! 😉

  4. [Meh. Usual Morgan pro-Labor bias. The Coalition is really much further ahead than that.]

    I just don’t get it! Where are the intelligent people who look below the surface? Sigh.

  8. Another “brilliant” poll result for Gillard!
    I’m really so shocked, everyone on PB assured me she was streets ahead of Abbott. 🙂

  9. This anti-Rudd mantra only exists because of the poor performance of Gillard.

    I think the assumed that Gillard would be automatically super popular and thus they would get away with knifing Rudd. However it proved to be different. Gillard took Labor backwards almost immediately and just about snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, a victory that Rudd was sure to have achieved.

    And it has been Gillard that has taken Labor backwards since day one with very poor leadership, and I don’t know how anybody can dispute that, unless they think the current state of affairs was just lots of bad luck.

    As I have said, Gillard might make a good departmental CEO or Deputy CEO, but that is the limit of her abilities.

    Her continued failure causes many to immediately lobb blame on Rudd, but never on her.

    The time will come when her adorators here will be stridently slagging her when she loses or is deposed by Combet. Nothing surer from a PB crowd.

  10. Danny,
    the issue here is not the behaviour of the victims, it is the behaviour of the perpetrator. He went out with the intention of giving people a fatal disease, is how I understand it. He might as well have stuck a hypodermic full of infected blood into their arms. If one dies, he should be done for murder, IMHO.

  11. GG

    We will see what happens, The “inflationary” pressure from the GST did not finish within 1 year of its introduction and for that year the Liberals were consistently behind in the poll (on primary). It was lucky that Howard actually took his tax to an election, which showed strength of charater and also had 2.5 years to sell the tax

    http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/cgi-lib.27638.1.1203cumulative.pdf

    Newspoll showed that after 1.4 years, the people in favour of GST rosed 4 points and disapproval reduced by 5 and most people were still not in favour of the tax by 39-53
    http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/cgi-lib.31776.1.011003gst.pdf

    The “inflation” from the Carbon tax will be felt at the time of the next election

  12. [Another “brilliant” poll result for Gillard!
    I’m really so shocked, everyone on PB assured me she was streets ahead of Abbott.]
    What’s sad is that you get satisfaction out of it.

  13. Diogenes: what makes you think his use of retroviral medications would alter his position if he honestly believes that HIV doesn’t cause AIDS? He might believe the medication is to keep the virus in check.

    Has anyone heard him admit he has AIDS? For that matter, does he have AIDS? I have heard many people argue that HIV and AIDS are two separate conditions; one is fatal and the other isn’t. I think they are batshit crazy myself, but the view is out there in the gay community. Not sure why, but it is a not uncommon view, especially amongst those who are too young to remember the ’80s and ’90s.

    In any case, it still doesn’t change the fact that there are at least 8 men who now have HIV because they refused to use a condom.

    A point for comparison: If they had crossed the road without looking and been run over by a bus, would you be blaming the person standing next to them who said there was nothing coming, or would you also point to them as well to ask why they didn’t look both ways before crossing?

  15. [But if we’re going to have a war here between Rudd supporters and Rudd non-supporters, bring it on! ;)]

    You and TP still don’t get it! Rudd is no longer PM. He won’t be again. Are you a Labor supporter or a Rudd devotee?

    You’re post are like a reformed smoker … too busy on your high horse to see the real world around you.

    If you don’t let your anger go, you’ll make yourself sick! If you are pro-Labor, that imminent illness is for nothing (since you can do nothing about the current situation … apart from detabilise the govt until the opposition gains the electoral upper hand).

  17. dovif, nothing allays fear better than actually experiencing that which is feared and finding out it isn’t scary afterall.

  18. [What is so ‘surprising’ that BOF should acknowledge some good appointments by the opposition, and where does the ABC get off expressing surprise at his comments? He’s not like Tone, who has to say no and criticise all the time. Why can’t we just have the facts and leave the editorialising out of things?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/08/3186105.htm?section=justin%5D

    I agree with BOF that Andrew McDonald’s elevation is long overdue: for those in other states not familiar with Dr McDonald, he’s a former paediatrician(with 20 years of experience) and one of NSW Labor’s few remaining Western Sydney MPs, who held on to his seat & weathered the anti-Labor swing. By all reports, a really nice bloke!
    However, “Their ABC” on Sydney radio are bagging the cabinet & reading press releases from Chris Hartcher.

  19. [You and TP still don’t get it! Rudd is no longer PM. He won’t be again. Are you a Labor supporter or a Rudd devotee?

    You’re post are like a reformed smoker … too busy on your high horse to see the real world around you.

    If you don’t let your anger go, you’ll make yourself sick! If you are pro-Labor, that imminent illness is for nothing (since you can do nothing about the current situation … apart from detabilise the govt until the opposition gains the electoral upper hand).]
    Spot on. I think evan has shown his true colours. He just enjoys the fight.

  21. Just had a laugh at the OO’s ranting about the NBN and the tender process as well as a article by Ben Grubb in Fairfax on the same subject.

    Their theme is all about NBN Co being nothing more than a joke run by amateurs and it has completely mucked up the tender process. Of course several “experts ” are quoted confirming the fact.

    What they fail to recognise or more precisely admit is NBN is run by Mike Quigley, a man with more industry experience in his little finger than any of these experts and the News and Fairfax hacks would have in total. He is backed up by a group of industry experts handpicked by him. No contest.

    No way would any tender process be undertaken or projected costings calculated without Quigley being all over them.

    I would not be surprised if the tender process has been slowed due to a deal on access to Telstra infrastructure being imminent. This would have significant influence on any final tender agreement. Apparently discussions are being held with one specific construction company which tendered so perhaps the Telstra/ construction deals are being done as part of one process.

    Hope it all comes together soon to jam it up Turnbull and the OO and Fairfax hacks. Must admit that Ben Grubb really gets on my wick. He overestimates his expertise by a significant amount and as far as the NBN is concerned has no real idea.

    Hope I am right.

  24. jenauthor@3671

    I have 7 votes left, already voted 3, but can’t vote again for the petition. Can somebody tell me how I can use all the votes left.

    I think you get 10 votes per day. So if you want to add more votes you can do it tomorrow. With each campaign you can add 1, 2 or 3 votes depending on how strongly you feel.

    To all those PBers voting for Jenauthor’s excellent petition please note that each member of Get Up gets 10 votes in total. They can be used to support any campaign proposal, and ONLY get returned to the member if/when a particular proposal “gets up” (get it??)…….OR the proposal lapses due to insufficient support.

    Note……..members DO NOT get any more than 10 votes IN TOTAL.

    Think it’s a very fair system that is not easy to manipulate…..

  25. ru

    [Libs up 1, Lab up 1. Greens down 2. Will other polls mirror this movement?]

    probably

    the anti israel sthick will cause some pain

    the 55.5 to the fibs is a worry

    tho the interesting thing is what events surrounded the latest poll

  26. [This anti-Rudd mantra only exists because of the poor performance of Gillard.

    I think the assumed that Gillard would be automatically super popular and thus they would get away with knifing Rudd. However it proved to be different. Gillard took Labor backwards almost immediately and just about snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, a victory that Rudd was sure to have achieved.

    And it has been Gillard that has taken Labor backwards since day one with very poor leadership, and I don’t know how anybody can dispute that, unless they think the current state of affairs was just lots of bad luck.

    As I have said, Gillard might make a good departmental CEO or Deputy CEO, but that is the limit of her abilities.

    Her continued failure causes many to immediately lobb blame on Rudd, but never on her.

    The time will come when her adorators here will be stridently slagging her when she loses or is deposed by Combet. Nothing surer from a PB crowd.]

    True, but if the Carbon Price falls over, that hurts Combet as much as Gillard, so then would Labor have to turn to Shorten, or someone else? Jason Clare or Andrew Leigh are good options for the distant future, just not right now.

  27. Ok. More from the 2010 election exit survey.

    I haven’t had time yet to check how well the survey movements match the
    actual election results but interestingly they show:
    from the people who voted first preference ALP in 2007 a nett
    7% of 2007 ALP voters were lost to the Greens in 2010
    and a nett 4% were lost to the Liberals.

    The actual 2007-2010 flows amongst those surveyed were.
    4.6% of all voters went ALP to Green (that’s 10% of ex ALP)
    1.5% of all voters went Green to ALP (that’s 28% of ex Green)
    4.9% of all voters went ALP to Lib (that’s 10% of ex ALP)
    2.9% of all voters went Lib to ALP (that’s 7% of ex Lib)

    Of the 4.9% of all people who went ALP to Lib,
    52.9% said policy issues decided their vote
    while 21.2% said that it was party leadership.
    So that is 1.0% of all voters were former
    ALP voters who switched to the Liberals
    because of party leadership issues.
    (possibly mostly the dumping??)

    Of the 4.6% of all people who went ALP to Green,
    60.4% said policy issues decided their vote
    while 16.5% said it was party leadership.
    So that is 0.76% of all voters were former
    ALP voters who switched to the Greens
    because of party leadership issues.
    (possibly mostly the dumping??)

    TOTAL: about 1.76% of all voters
    were voters who went away from the
    ALP due to leadership issues.

    This is what I call a proper analysis
    of a survey.

    Now, how many voters switched to the
    ALP in 2010? stay tuned

  28. Danny,
    If someone is going to cross the road and asks the person next to them if there’s any cars coming and s/he says no, while watching a car hurtling down the road towards the crossing, and the first person steps in front of the car, yes, imho, that is manslaughter.

  31. [tho the interesting thing is what events surrounded the latest poll]
    Why is it a worry? Are we having the election next week?

  32. [re the getup thingy

    have sent to a few greenies

    expect G Up to move soon]

    Cool bananas Gusface. Some really strong and intelligent comment there. The one or two dissenters there have been, have absolutely no argument attached. Just: “I like the ABC as it is” (anyone seen JamesK’s posts elsewhere on Crikey?)

  33. Latest from Abbott Broadcasting Corporation: Stephen Smith under pressure over ADF scandal, Abbott making the running.
    I’ll agree with you all on one thing: the standard of journalism from the national broadcaster is deplorable.

  34. ruawake
    3821

    LOL you are pretty mindless

    Mining brings in about over 10 Billion into Australia every year, if you do not think that amount of money is employing a lot of miners, a lot of people in the finance industry, a lot of people in the hospitality industry, a lot of builders jobs?

    Think of it this way, the difference between us and America … the mining sector …. without the income from the mining sector and its churn in the economy, a lot of jobs would be lost

  35. Doyley

    The NBN look like they will use a Leightons/Seimens joint venture to do the majority of the cable laying stuff.

    The others are peeved because they missed out.

  37. [Why is it a worry? Are we having the election next week?]

    gary

    I am more concerned that a new benchmark may be happening

    and yes the election is 2.5 yrs away

    but i aint goin to pretend its all roses and sunshine

  38. [I just don’t get it! Where are the intelligent people who look below the surface? Sigh.]

    What a patronising remark!

  41. bushfire

    sent this to matt re his Q issue

    [@franklinmatthew but matt you are the reporter- why not publicly list your Q’s- or is there some reason not to????]

    Cuppa

    I think we should keep retweeting emailling to all and sundry

    5k of signatures is the target

  42. [I am more concerned that a new benchmark may be happening]
    Remember the benchmark Rudd set for the first 2 years of the last term? Don’t tell me things can’t turn around.

  43. Puff: my point is that BOTH are at fault.

    I would also argue that both are victims.

    I have been heavily involved with people with HIV and AIDS – I am a previous carer for a man with HIV and, as I said before, involved with the AIDS Council of SA. HIV is not like any other illness, because it comes with value-laden assumptions, squickiness about being gay and gay sex in general and a big huge dollop of “nice, normal people don’t get this disease”. Can you think of any other disease where the victims – people who effectively have a death sentence – are treated with such disdain and indifference?

    There are a myriad of problems people living with HIV have to deal with. Often, mental health issues are a part of the equation. I know I am a bleeding heart lefty, but I believe that one must make allowances for this, even when people are behaving outrageously.

    But this is actually my point. Given all these issues around HIV, people who are positive can be extraordinarily militant about it. They are prey to people who posit theories about the disease and its consequences that fit into their image of themselves and of the world around them. They are prey to medical shonks who promise them cures, provided they are prepared to part with all their pensions. They deal daily with discrimination, hatred and enmity. If you can survive all of that without going slightly crazy then you are better than most.

    I repeat: I agree that McDonald was wrong to not disclose his HIV status. But the other men also have to take some responsibility for not taking their own health seriously enough.

    All are guilty of rank stupidity and all are victims in one way or another. All up, it is tragic for everyone concerned.

  45. Gary

    The question is how far the fear will go

    For example, one industry hit hardest by the carbon tax will be Grocery. Fridge uses lots of electricity and therefore is a prime CO2 producer

    When weekly shopping cost go up by 10-20%… how long does it take for the fear to go away

    For the GST the fear did not go away for 16 months, according to my link

  46. [Note……..members DO NOT get any more than 10 votes IN TOTAL.]

    That’s weird, I’ve got 10 still and used 6 yesterday. Or is that because I am the instigator?

  47. Puff: what if the other person just didn’t see the car coming because they have sight problems?

    Wow – I know we are getting into ridiculous hypotheticals now 😉

  50. even taking into consideration Morgan’s suspect methodology…. this is an absolutely shocking poll.

    back to patiently waiting for the change to come….

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