Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll sees Labor’s 51-49 lead last time obliterated by a six-point shift to the Coalition, with Labor’s primary vote down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Large amounts of tosh were written about the Labor lead last fortnight, even though a lack of corroborating evidence from other polls made it clear enough the result was an aberration. No doubt there will further over-analysis of this correction – probably over-correction, with the New South Wales state election perhaps injecting a bit of static into proceedings. On the primary vote, Labor is down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-31 to 46-37.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,941 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 79
1 2 … 79

  7. [Gary
    Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:27 am | Permalink
    Anyone who believes Labor’s PV is 32% or anywhere near it has rocks in their head]

    Agreed Gary. It was 25% in NSW just days ago…

    Perhaps this is a bit of NSW ALP bad taste still lingering? A little mouthwash and a couple of weeks and we can see how things look then. Now really off to bed!

  9. Agree Gary. No way it could be over 30%. Actually not crap but prietty much the same as a month ago after she announced carbon tax. What is crap is that the people on here didnt believe the last one was a rogue poll, Gillard done absolutely nothing to turn it around and you all believe she come from 46-54 down to a 51-49 lead, that doesnt happen unless something major happens and it didnt.

  11. Gary

    Anyone who believes Labor’s PV is 32% or anywhere near it has rocks in their head.

    Progressive Labor % on primary since election @ 38%; 36, 34, 32, 36, 30, 36, 32%

    What rocks?

  14. Look at the last 4 newspolls.

    36, 30, 36, 32 for labor primary vote. Volatile electorate I guess, cos newspoll is never wrong.

  15. Watched QUANDA. I had a quite wrong impression from reading the comments earlier i think. Was a bit put off by the avid way Tony Jones was pursuing the please name Julia meme.

    Having seen it i think Rudd actually did pretty well. Nothing new. I suspect that a lot of the MSM are wrapped because they will have an easy time turning out light weight column inches for the next few days.

    Bishop did not show up very well. Light weight air head nasty girl if ever there was one.

    I think that any questions to the PM arising from tonights QUANDA will be dealt with pretty easily.

  16. I expect the shift in the polls is due to the announcement of the specific dollar figure per year added to people’s cost of living pressures in relation to the carbon tax.

    Gillard and Labor need to stress the compensation mechanism as much as possible

  18. gillard should not argue with abbot or brown – she likes aggressive argument and ok for deputy or in opposition but pm should be above fray esp in minority – she needs to project stability not be rhetorical with brown or brash with abbot …

  19. News Poll
    ______
    Listening to talkbacks and reading the relentless Murdoch press on the Carbon Tax ,I have no doubt that Gillard has failed to carry the public on this issue,as on much else…
    The Carbon Tax will prove electoral poison,and Julia never shows much skill in selling policies anyway…look at the way she messed up the Mining tax debate
    All in all a very bad result and probably the first of many such polls

  20. Ever since Julia announced the Carbon Tax after saying there wouldn’t be one things have gone downhill.
    With the opposition and some media continually calling her a liar and the scare about $800 increases a year in power bills petrol etc is it any wonder the polls ain’t good?

  22. [gillard should not argue with abbot or brown]

    WTF?? I think she should pound at and humiliate Abbott at every opportunity. This guy is a dangerous nutjobby at heart leading a front bench of talentless wannabe’s.

    Brown, not so much. JG may have gone a little over the top in her last digs at the Greens, but i reckon both she and Brown know its about differentiation. A little theater and appeal to the base while they are actually getting stuff done.

  23. Gillard has been pounding and carping at and swapping insults with Tone ever since she was made PM

    Don’t think it’s working, she only brings herself down to Tone’s level IMO

  24. So Vera how is the $800 dollar increase a scare campaign when its being backed up my the governments own research. I know your going to say that they will be compensated so it wont cost anything, but the figures only takes into account direct cost of electricity, fuel etc, but every company uses electricity and fuel and will pass on the costs to everyone, if you believe that you will only pay a extra $800 your very nieve, everything you buy will increase in cost. And this is only if they bring it in at the lower end of the scale and does not take into account that for the tax to be effective it will need to increase and keep increasing. Also compensation will not happen continuously for ever and ever. Actually saying you will pay an $800 is not actually a scare campaign but a best case scenario campaign.

  25. William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    Newspoll diagnosis: situation stable. Last one a rogue. This one in MoE of one before. Possibly some static from NSW election.

    You are on that “wierd stuff” as I suspected Mr Bowe, whatever is allowed i guess, I will not put you up as a gentleman to be a person known to my kids, carry on anyway…my brother is gay and I love him so no damage

  26. Don’t think it’s working, she only brings herself down to Tone’s level IMO

    I think the problem is people are seeing similarities with her and Abbott with regard to credibility. She best keep her distance from direct confrontations lest the mirror be bought too close.

  27. [WTF?? I think she should pound at and humiliate Abbott at every opportunity. This guy is a dangerous nutjobby at heart leading a front bench of talentless wannabe’s.

    Brown, not so much. JG may have gone a little over the top in her last digs at the Greens, but i reckon both she and Brown know its about differentiation. A little theater and appeal to the base while they are actually getting stuff done.]

    Agreed.

    With Abbott – no quarter given, no quarter asked for.

    With Brown (and Independents as well)- Best of friends, but as all friends do, they differ on various details. In the meantime get on behind the scenes working with them to get stuff done.

    That speech was very strange. Surely the last election should’ve taught her/them that there are no votes on the right hand side of the spectrum for Labor. Therefore, absolutely no point in chasing them.

    Perhaps, and I hope this is the case, that speech was part of some gameplay that we mere mortals can’t see yet.

  28. no imacca, of course she should argue, that was not phrased well, but not vociferously. she has fallen into the trap set by abbot, and also brown. how dare brown whinge – he has been carping about labor forever, is the familiar green fodder. no julia needs a deputy to do bad cop role – she should not pound and humiliate at every opportunity –

  29. [So Vera how is the $800 dollar increase a scare campaign when its being backed up my the governments own research.]

    Cos they have not announced a carbon price yet.

  30. andrew36

    Hey there!! hang on, I actually agree with you! The purpose of a CT is stop us using power and petrol and if the loony left greenies have their way we’ll all be living in caves and riding push bikes.

    I also reckon Julia is a big fat liar 😉

  34. Ok Vera. Ruawake, They dont need to announce the price because the $800 increase is what it will cost if they bring it in at the low end of the scale. If the greens get there way in will be a lot more then this. Oh and if they dont want people to talk about the cost or speculate about the cost maybe they shouldnt be stupid enough to announce the policy 6 months before they dont have any details.

  36. [Ruawake, They dont need to announce the price because the $800 increase is what it will cost if they bring it in at the low end of the scale.]

    Er no, that is the cost @ $30 a tonne. Which is at the very high end of the scale.

  37. goodness david assume you and thomas know each other

    personaly insults are NOT acceptable in mainstream or social media (thanks tony)

    the level of public discourse and political rhetoric are at historic lows – i am not sure julia is gifted enough or right person to bring them back up, i think she always enjoyed argy bargy with abbot but now is not time …

    she also needs to be clever, to research strategies that work even if unexpected …

    of course nothing excuses the baseness of the liberals – they are simply unfit to govern

    newspoll is serious, but attacking brown looks bad …

    where is the paid climate campaign … bring the vote on

    i agree with andrew 36, $800 seems too low – let public adjust to that. why the big protests over that much?

    o dear, ozpol is a bit sad and thin and complicated

  38. wish that royal couple (the young dudes) would keep right away from oz. royalty is a time wasting fog … we need a reformed political landscape. what happened to the constitutional reform commission (?) – we just go backwards (thanks libs)

  39. What happens if Labor bring in a carbon tax at $8 a tonne and everyone thought they were going to pay $800?

    It is only a transition to an ETS in a couple of years.

  40. SNIP: Deleted comment deleted – The Management.

    Hahah Seems Gillard is holy and cold truths cannot be said about her.

    Nope, don’t vote Liberal. Vote Labor or Greens or Independents. Last time I voted Liberal was 1996.

  41. Hi Thomas
    How’s things? You still stirring the pot I see

    Vera, it isn’t hard at all. Simply implying anything negative about Ms Gillard brings out the knives. Must be something about that side of the equation and knives. LoL

    Bed time. Need to get that AFR column dreamt up.

  44. $850 for Carbon Tax IS A SCARE to many voters..
    —————————————–
    Most voters have no idea what it is all about…but think they will pay that in the new tax…and it’s is most unpopular,and a splendid aid to Abbott and Co who will build a big fear campaign around it

  46. Diog, you got good company.

    Kevin Rudd: i wRONg and i was unique;y responsible for that decision”

    bloddy hell he was. at the time of Turnbull was rolled and then the 2nd Senate rejection. i called on Rudd to call a DD regardless. because it was the right and principle thing to do.

    He chickened out. If he had done that, he would:

    1. Won the election
    2. crushed Abbott
    3. we have an ETS
    4. He will still be the PM
    5. Labor would not be in the bad position it is in now.

    So i blame Rudd entirely. He should now shutup, do his FM job and become the next UN SecGen.

  47. [david – Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    AGAIN crikey is not functionally am not prepared to pay a sub for this absurd lack of service and no response from the owners..,.qustions are about to be asked…as usual William says nothing when the going gets tough…WIMP]

    from previously thread.

    Totally agree with:

    1. The state of Crickey and not parting my $65 as yet

    2. the state of Bilbo. Lately, he had resorted to personal abuse when he sees something he doesnt like and disagrees with. he is no longer a fair and balance moderator. he has become a hack just like us.

  48. Accepting the last Newspoll as, in Williams words, a abberation then there has not been much change over the last four weeks.

    Comparing the polls from 4 march and this one ( thereby excluding all of the last poll ) labors PV has increased 2%, coalition 0% and Greens =3%. Others has increased 2%.

    Julia approval has remained the same, disapproval -2%.

    Abbott, approval -3%, disapproval +2%.

    So, while not good overall, even taking into account the $890 shrill from last Friday, things have not got any worse.

    Clearly, this issue, in the minds of punters out there is all about COL. Clear and simple and until details are released not much improvement can be expected. Whether Abbott and the MSM are doing the government a favor by their scare campaign will only be determined when the costings and compensation details are released.

    At least things are not getting any worse and votes trend wise are not flowing freely to the coalition. Since the electon approx 1.4% increase. Greens approx 0.3%. Others approx 5.5%.

    It will be a long three months or so until the details are released so where we are at the moment is something we most probably have to accept.

  49. I saw Kevin last night and thought he went really well.

    What else could he say. He accepted responsibility for the ETS, merely confirmed conflicting views within the party and realistically stated that as a result of the leadership change he is less trusting. Nothing unusual there ! Except a pollie being honest.

    He took the heat and accepted responsibility. He did well and I believe helped take some pressure off Julia.

    Time to move on however.

  50. David and Finns – not sure what you are complaining about. I didn’t have any problems yesterday or last night.

    I was surprised with Paul Sheehan doing ‘the papers’ with Trioli. He’s a rampant conservative and yet he said that Abbott is politically exploiting the CT well but questionned whether it is right for Australia. Very surprising for him to be so vocal about Abbott.

    Of course our ABC No. 1 Liberal (Melissa Clark) was all smiles this morning when she talked to Trioli about Q&A and newspoll.

    Doyley, thanks for the breakdown of the polling.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 79
1 2 … 79