Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll sees Labor’s 51-49 lead last time obliterated by a six-point shift to the Coalition, with Labor’s primary vote down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Large amounts of tosh were written about the Labor lead last fortnight, even though a lack of corroborating evidence from other polls made it clear enough the result was an aberration. No doubt there will further over-analysis of this correction – probably over-correction, with the New South Wales state election perhaps injecting a bit of static into proceedings. On the primary vote, Labor is down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-31 to 46-37.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,941 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

  1. [Remember the benchmark Rudd set for the first 2 years of the last term? Don’t tell me things can’t turn around.]

    true

    but i am saying that a fib run of 55 + will cause the dissension some here seek to create

    the media will use it endless to bash labor’s “legitimacy”

  2. [For the GST the fear did not go away for 16 months, according to my link]
    So people got compensated for the GST?
    When Tone has to tell them their compensation will go they won’t be happy.

  3. [That’s weird, I’ve got 10 still and used 6 yesterday. Or is that because I am the instigator?]

    Would it be that you have a crikey subscription? I don’t know but yesterday was the first time I visited the site and I think you get 10 every day. I went there yesterday and voted 3 for the petition with 7 left.

    Today I went there and I had 10 again, and voted 3 for the petition with 7 left.

  4. [Think of it this way, the difference between us and America … the mining sector …. without the income from the mining sector and its churn in the economy, a lot of jobs would be lost]

    Yeah, Dovif, but we ARE Australia and we’re NOT America.

  5. [but i am saying that a fib run of 55 + will cause the dissension some here seek to create

    the media will use it endless to bash labor’s “legitimacy”]
    Not if the government is wise, which I think they are. They would be expecting these polls given the present circumstances. They would also believe they can win people over with a very good compensation package.

  6. Dovif,

    Abbott said $30 per tonne equals about $800 od dollars or abot $16/week.

    Bullshitting about 10-20% increase in food costs makes you look rather ‘mindless” especially when you don’t factor in the compensation.

    You really need to move beyond your Liberal talking points as a starting point for your analysis.

  7. [Mining is our largest export industry … you did know that don’t you?]

    So what? We have a $1,300 billion dollar economy, where do you think the other $1290 billion comes from?

  8. [
    I am more concerned that a new benchmark may be happening

    Remember the benchmark Rudd set for the first 2 years of the last term? Don’t tell me things can’t turn around.]

    The interesting polls are still to come – probably six months into the new senate.

  9. Just ventured onto the 7.30 letters site, looks as though the Libs may have found it, there are a few of how wonderful you are Chris, but the majority of latest batch is still thumbs down to Chris U.
    Jenauthor I have seen JamesK on quite a few sites, always plugging the Fibs line

  10. [So what? We have a $1,300 billion dollar economy, where do you think the other $1290 billion comes from?]

    Ru

    dovif thinks it comes frrom Hogwarts

    😉

  11. Not sure if it’s already been mentioned on here but good for a laugh anyway:

    [FORMER federal MP Belinda Neal is again in the news for all the wrong reasons, this time for harassing her husband’s former mistress.

    Almost two years after Ms Neal’s husband, John Della Bosca, resigned as NSW health minister over a scandal involving him and a six-month affair with then 26-year-old Kate Neill, police have taken out an interim AVO against Ms Neal, The Daily Telegraph reports in Sydney.
    It comes after the two women allegedly clashed outside a Newtown cafe near Ms Neill’s apartment.

    Ms Neal, a former Labor MP for Robertson, was reportedly waiting outside Ms Neill’s apartment when she left home on Wednesday, The Daily Telegraph reported.

    She claims Ms Neal followed her through the streets of Newtown in Sydney’s inner-west before there was a confrontation outside the Chill Cafe on King Street.

    Ms Neill said Ms Neal called her a “whore” and a “prostitute” who “didn’t know anything about politics”.

    A police spokeswoman confirmed police are investigating an alleged personal violence incident that occurred in Newtown on Wednesday.]

    http://indaily.wordpress.com/2011/04/08/violence-order-on-neal/

  12. Anyway, The Australian reckons that the mining sector is not part of the real economy and that glaciers behave illogically.
    How hootment.

    BTW,
    There is no anti-Rudd mantra.
    There is no anti-Rudd mantra.
    There is no anti-Rudd mantra.

  13. [Posted Friday, April 8, 2011 at 4:27 pm | Permalink
    Just ventured onto the 7.30 letters site, looks as though the Libs may have found it, there are a few of how wonderful you are Chris, but the majority of latest batch is still thumbs down to Chris U.
    Jenauthor I have seen JamesK on quite a few sites, always plugging the Fibs line
    3912]

    they will get sick of not like us stayers

    any way may be friends and family

  14. Blackdog

    GetUp! is not affiliated in any way with Crikey. The fact that someone has a Crikey subscription has no bearing on the number of votes/points they have to use at GetUp!

  15. 1) The media need to let go of the Rudd/Gillard thing

    2) Despite the current polls I do think Labor would be more worried about facing a Turnbull lead opposition at the next election than an Abbott lead one. Some people might be fooled by Abbott but alot are not, and he is well behind in the PPM stakes, even when Gillard has taken a hit too.

    IMO I am not reading anything into the polls as a lot could happen between now and the next election for both parties.

  16. [Not if the government is wise, which I think they are. They would be expecting these polls given the present circumstances. They would also believe they can win people over with a very good compensation package.]

    agree 100%

    just think a tight ship and all hands on deck would be a smart move,IMO there has not been enough media initiatives
    ie saturate the talk shows tv shows etc

  17. [Mining is our largest export industry … you did know that don’t you?]

    Yes, and we export most of the profits … but does it employ many people?

  18. [Almost two years after Ms Neal’s husband, John Della Bosca, resigned as NSW health minister…]

    Adam thinks its a hoot. 😛

  19. Of the 2.9% of all voters who were Liberal in 2007 but
    went to the ALP in 2010, 55% said that policy
    issues decided their votes while 20% said it was
    party leadership.

    So that is a move of 0.58% of all voters being
    Lib to ALP because of leadership.

    Of the 1.5% of all voters who were Green in 2007
    but voted ALP in 2010, 54.8% switched due to
    policies while 16.1% switched due to leadership.

    So that is a move of 0.24% of all voters being
    Green to ALP because of leadership.

    TOTAL: 0.82% of voters switched to the ALP
    because of leadership.

    Given the previously reported loss of 1.76%
    of voters due to leadership we have …

    NETT: a nett 0.94% of all voters were
    lost to the ALP (2010 vs 2007)
    because of leadership issues.

    Now if we just look at the ALP vs Lib
    flows to make a rough and ready estimation
    of two-party preferred flows we see
    1.0% ALP to Lib and 0.58% Lib to ALP
    because of leadership.

    NETT 2PP FLOW:
    a nett flow of 0.42% of all voters was lost to
    the ALP (2010 vs 2007) because of leadership.

    Note that the actual total nett loss for the
    ALP 2PP from 2007 to 2010 was
    2.58% of all voters.

    Thus at most 16% of the ALP’s nett two-party
    drop in votes can be explained by
    people who changed their votes
    because of leadership issues.

  20. received a note from Mr. Combet office this morning after reminding them that people like my single daughter should not be left out of any compensation for the pollution tax.

    she often says to me that singles are the forgotten ones they pay their own mortage ect and all the bills are the same as two people ect.
    any way thats beside the point.

    mr combet office said [
    The full detail of the carbon price is yet to be finalised by the Government. When the work is done, the household assistance details will be available for everyone to consider.]

  21. In regards to the voting for the ABC charter, it recognises IP addresses. If you do not have a static IP address (not likely unless you request one) then your host will use various IP addresses for its users. Having ten new votes means you have come in on a different IP address than the time you previously voted.

  22. Kezza,

    The media do need to let the Rudd Gillard BS go but there is no chance in hell they will not use every minor little irritation to put the boot into the NBN builder.

  23. [Just ventured onto the 7.30 letters site, looks as though the Libs may have found it, there are a few of how wonderful you are Chris, but the majority of latest batch is still thumbs down to Chris U.]

    Yeah–and they didn’t print mine (though I don’t think I said anything downright nasty!)

  24. [ CUhlmann Chris Uhlmann
    This week in politics was like bad panto http://alturl.com/b5try
    50 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply in reply to ?

    @SpaceKidette
    Space Kidette
    @CUhlmann Bit like your interviews.
    25 minutes ago via web Favorite Reply Delete
    ]

  25. This Morgan poll was taken the same weekend as the current Newspoll if I am not mistaken.

    Any flack for labor has showed up in the Newspoll so what the hell, old news. All we are doing is going over old ground.

    Taking a approx 2.5 – 3% bias to labor on face to face this Morgan would adjust to approx a breakdown of around 58 – 42 to the coalition.

    So, on the same weekend we have a Newspoll 55 – 45 and a Morgan 58 -42(adjusted)

    thats my take anyway.

  26. GUSFACE

    well all i can say it i am team player and very proud to be so,

    The leader has my full support,
    Its like a footy team the captain changes you dont sit on the sidlines and salt.

    want mention any names here, but if you do the other dont bother being a labor person go and join the libs or start your own.

    I AM PROUD OF BEING A TEAM PLAYER AND SUPPORTER OF THE PM

    so up the jumper to any one who does the opposite

    over and out

  27. Given the 2010 exit survey results, I wonder why the Age did not say
    “Dumping of Rudd was not a major vote changer
    in 2010” instead as a headline?

    (which would be an equally interesting and correct statement)

    The actual survey data, by the way, is available at
    http://nesstar.assda.edu.au/webview/
    but you have to go through a free registration
    process first and then find
    “Australian Election Report 2010”
    and then play with all sorts of fun
    online spreadsheet constructors.

    There is a huge amount of interesting data there
    about people’s voting decsions etc.

  28. [GetUp! is not affiliated in any way with Crikey. The fact that someone has a Crikey subscription has no bearing on the number of votes/points they have to use at GetUp!]

    Cuppa

    Thanks for that. Please excuse my ignorance. I was just guessing as I have both and didn’t know how the votes worked.

  29. [Almost two years after Ms Neal’s husband, John Della Bosca, resigned as NSW health minister…

    Adam thinks its a hoot.]

    What I think it’s funny DB resigned as NSW health minister? I was clearly talking about Belinda “Demon Baby” Neal, she’s riot.

  30. [just think a tight ship and all hands on deck would be a smart move,IMO there has not been enough media initiatives
    ie saturate the talk shows tv shows etc]
    I reckon that will happen but not yet. Now is not the time. Wait until you have something substantial to sell and give the public in the way of compensation. A great big advertising campaign. You can bet your boots that is in the wind.

  31. [POLLYTICS | 36 seconds ago
    According to those geniuses at The Oz, if we removed all the well performing parts of the economy, we’d be left with the bad bits!]
    Such insight from the OO.
    Tomorrow’s story – “On average every Australian has one testicle and one ovary”

  32. Dr Good,

    People like to think they can fart and chew gum. People can have a multiplicity of reasons for changing their vote. Often these are contradictory, mutually excluisve and irrational. So, trying to isolate one key decison making criteria is a bit pointless. I suspect that like most things in life there is a multidimensionality to the data that would do a Psychographic analyst proud.

    1% swapping their vote because of the leadeship is still impressive. Approximately 100,000 people across 150 electorates is a significant block especially if it confined to existing Labor seats etc.

    You also fail to analyse thiose who didn’t vote this time but did last time and vice versa. Maybe there is further grist fro your mill.

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