Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining results from the previous two weekends, is a weak result for Labor as this series goes, with the Coalition maintaining their 50.5-49.5 lead from the poll of March 12-13. The primary vote figures likewise record little change: Labor down half a point to 37.5 per cent, the Coalition down one point to 43.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent. As always, the two-party figure I have chosen to lead with is the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” result rather than the “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” figure preferred by Morgan (51-49 to the Coalition in this case), and as always the margin of error (2.3 per cent from a sample of 1819) tells you less than this series’ evident bias to Labor.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from very slight changes in the primary vote: Labor down a point to 36 per cent, the Coalition and Greens steady on 46 per cent and 10 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,695 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [the greens vetoed the ETS and destabilised everything]

    Absolutely spot on!

    Bludgers should read Geoffrey on the top of the page at 2601. The post of the night.

    On that note *nightski*

  2. 2622

    If you look at it that way but if you at it that way but if you look at it in gains/looses then it looks much better for the Greens than ALP.

    LA ALP down about 30 seats Greens up 1.

    LC ALP down 5 Greens up 1. (That is ALP down 50% of the seats they held in the seats up for re-election and Greens up 50% of the seats they held in the seats up for re-election).

  3. AGAIN crikey is not functionally am not prepared to pay a sub for this absurd lack of service and no response from the owners..,.qustions are about to be asked…as usual William says nothing when the going gets tough…WIMP

  4. [Tom the first and best

    Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    2622

    If you look at it that way but if you at it that way but if you look at it in gains/looses then it looks much better for the Greens than ALP.

    LA ALP down about 30 seats Greens up 1.
    ]

    And like in Fremantle – I predict he will go independent – or be forced to resign.

  5. I thought the only people who resembled seagulls where the 36 AFL players chasing the chip supervised by the Vestal virgins.

  6. [david

    Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    AGAIN crikey is not functionally am not prepared to pay a sub for this absurd lack of service and no response from the owners..,.qustions are about to be asked…as usual William says nothing when the going gets tough…WIMP
    ]

    He’s busy defending that Creep Bolt.

    His true colours have been exposed.

    But what do you expect from someone whose local state member was forced to quit her party in disgust 🙂

  7. David: I’d show William some more respect, if I was you.
    You ought to be appreciative that he keeps this forum going, day after day!
    Should be interesting to see and hear how the MSM covers the Rudd thing tomorrow – off to bed, sleep well all! 😉

  8. Frank: complete horse shit from you…………William isn’t a supporter of Andrew Bolt.
    You’re making a fool of yourself again, buddy.

  9. [2662

    evan14

    Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    Frank: complete horse shit from you…………William isn’t a supporter of Andrew Bolt.
    You’re making a fool of yourself again, buddy.
    ]

    Posts from Bilbo suggest otherwise.

  10. I am awake after midnight for the first time in ages, my left hip is killing me, newspoll is late, twitter fried itself and the crikey gerbil is on strike.

    Thank goodness for Kev. 😉

  11. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    (**Unconfirmed**) Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (-6) LNP 55 (+6) #auspol
    58 seconds ago

  12. WOW. what a turnaround (although I suspected the last one was an outlier).

    Remember I predicted Abbott gone by mid year and Julia by end of year…

  13. Frank I will pay for a sub to Crikey, which assists keeps William Bowe in work if he is in need for our support…what the said Wiliam needs is to know who actually is on his side.
    Dont think many here are, just an observation after a year or so….

  14. 2654

    On what basis?

    I am not aware of him running against the Greens in Balmain in a previous election (like Adele Carles and Kris Hanna). In fact he has been a Green local government politician in Balmain for years so he is far less likely to defect.

  15. [If that Newspoll is right then what in the hell is going on? There is no reason for such a big turn around.]

    There was no turn around

  16. 2670

    Why did you do that while I was writing a question to him?

    Why is your blogging software so un-big brother-ish as to not allow you to see yet to be posted comments?

  17. [Gary
    Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:23 am | Permalink
    If that Newspoll is right then what in the hell is going on? There is no reason for such a big turn around.]

    Both last and this Newspoll are within the “line of best fit” trendline (front page of Australian website). The ALP vote is sagging, and has been for some time.

    Well, time to prove david right and head off to bed. Getting too late for this particular piss-weak! Nite all 😉

  18. William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes:

    (**Unconfirmed**) Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (-6) LNP 55 (+6) #auspol

    Ok time has come, give the country to the religous right catholic , abbott led tools…it needs for this county to actually be rulled by radio and tv and news paper editors and really know about depression..lets go give it to the bastards

  19. [Thomas Paine
    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    Hilarious that Rudd is being bashed by some for being brutally honest – isn’t that what we demand of our politicians?

    I don’t know why they worry so. Gillard is not much chop, she has had her chance and has kept on failing. Time for Combet. Hopefully there is only one of him lol]

    Hmm. NBN. Health. Indies on side. Slaps down every phoney attack by Abbott…

    “… kept on failing.” LOL! So you’re doing standup comedy now TP?

Comments are closed.

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