Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining results from the previous two weekends, is a weak result for Labor as this series goes, with the Coalition maintaining their 50.5-49.5 lead from the poll of March 12-13. The primary vote figures likewise record little change: Labor down half a point to 37.5 per cent, the Coalition down one point to 43.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent. As always, the two-party figure I have chosen to lead with is the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” result rather than the “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” figure preferred by Morgan (51-49 to the Coalition in this case), and as always the margin of error (2.3 per cent from a sample of 1819) tells you less than this series’ evident bias to Labor.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from very slight changes in the primary vote: Labor down a point to 36 per cent, the Coalition and Greens steady on 46 per cent and 10 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,695 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition”

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  1. i agree Centre – the greens vetoed the ETS and destabilised everything. they could have favourably tweaked the ets so it could be changed in future but no, they voted regardless of consenquences, and have NEVER taken responsibility for consequences – eg letting abbot into the room, destabilising climate debate and labor party, as well as shooting themselves in foot. they could be on 20% vote now, labor on 40% or more – but no, not with their social agenda, maybe 15%

  2. [You don’t get it – like the others.]

    Evan, I am just flabbergasted. How can you take the NSW ALP losing 60% of its seats as an indicator that something could be wrong? Do you have no political wisdom at all?

    Frank is right. There should be no criticism of the ALP at all. As soon as the Member for Penrith finishes any sentence for corruption she should be back- perhaps ministerial material? The ALP MP in jail for paedophilia currently should be out for the 2019 election- he could come back. There are plenty of potential Planning ministers (you know the ones the ALP planning minister said he didnt trust in the portfolio and thats why he decided not to resign and leave his position to someone even less trustworthy- see Lateline last week). Did I forget what the former ALP Prime Minister said about the current NSW ALP leader?

    No, the NSW ALP is showing the rest of the country how it is done and they should be left to keep on going without any criticism.

  3. Frank: you’re talking a load of nonsense, the ethnicity of Mark Arbib or Karl Bitar is completely irrelevant, its their style of politics that’s in question.
    But of course I’m talking about the same man who has convinced himself that Eric Ripper is odds on to beat Colin Barnett in the next WA election. 😀

  4. Hilarious that Rudd is being bashed by some for being brutally honest – isn’t that what we demand of our politicians?

    I don’t know why they worry so. Gillard is not much chop, she has had her chance and has kept on failing. Time for Combet. Hopefully there is only one of him lol

  5. TP spinning like a top.
    [This wont have the slightest effect on Gillard’s polls, may even improve Labor’s lot, to actually see someone be honest.]

  6. Mod Lib: Frank is like some NSW Labor insiders, who were congratulating themselves over Labor winning 20 seats – WOW! 😆

    Even John Robertson grasps the reality of the situation more than Frank.

  7. Well Gillard will be again bombarded with questions tomorrow on what her position on the ETS was. I hope she has more than a non answer.

    This isn’t going to matter. It will if it’s allowed to remain a narrow question about who in the ALP wanted what to happen. But it really shouldn’t be all that difficult for Gillard to answer. All she needs to do is broaden the landscape a little.

    Simply put, as soon as Abbott became opposition leader, the chances of getting an ETS through parliament disappeared. And with the political games the Greens were playing – sending a clear message that Labor’s ETS wasn’t good enough for them, and they’d be happy to wait until a better one came along – it was impossible to get any momentum up for their scheme.

    Naturally there would be discussion within the ALP as to what the approach should now be. While everyone was an advocate for an ETS, some advised that the political climate wasn’t right at the time to successfully prosecute one. If anyone would like to know why, they’d be best advised asking why Abbott backflipped and Bob Brown advised his party to vote against it. They’re the ones who changed the game.

    Things changed very quickly following the August election. The Greens gained the BOP, and were more willing to negotiate. And so carbon reduction schemes were back on the table, agreements among the independents and Greens were swift, and we’re on track to make a positive contribution.

    I think Rudd was right to be upfront about it. The whispers go on anyway. At least this will clear the air a bit. Some of the more soap-opera inclined amongst the press gallery will be loving it, of course. There’s lots of action and drama here, but no substance. It’s just the way they like it.

  8. [evan14

    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib: Frank is like some NSW Labor insiders, who were congratulating themselves over Labor winning 20 seats – WOW!

    Even John Robertson grasps the reality of the situation more than Frank.
    ]

    Winning 20 seats is way better than less than 16 originally predicted.

  9. [His vitriol over the factionalism wasn’t anything anyone didn’t know, and it was aimed most broadly at NSW.]

    jen – Kev’s points on that were terrific. He was spot on that the trouble lies there. I heard John Robertson saying this morning on Sky that he wants the Faulkner, Bracks Carr report implemented and he wants the factions to be a thing of the past.

    Hopefully the Feds will do the same thing and I’m sure my Branch will be behind that.

    The only thing I found a bit strange was in Kev saying that the rank and file must preselect and not Head Office b ut I seem to remember that Kev actually over-ruled a couple of Branch preselections in 2006/7

  10. [Gillard is not much chop, she has had her chance and has kept on failing.]

    Wrong again as usual. Didn’t you hear that the NBN legislation is now in place? Did you hear about the passing of the Flood Levy?

  11. [Winning 20 seats is way better than less than 16 originally predicted.]

    My best wishes for continued success like that into the distant future Frank!

    You really are a one man comedy routine some nights 😉

  12. geoffrey

    i agree Centre – the greens vetoed the ETS and destabilised everything. they could have favourably tweaked the ets so it could be changed in future but no

    It was even mentioned by Robert Manne tonight on Q&A that Rudd did not ‘look in the Greens’ direction’ before the vote in November 2009 because it was all about Turnbull being wedged. Rudd didn’t deny this – and can’t.

    Rudd refused to negotiate with the Greens until January 2010. Since that time – 25 January 2010 to be precise – Ross Garnaut, the government’s key carbon advisor, and the Greens have been essentially as one on the issue of a carbon price followed by a target based on the original (now modified) 25% by 2020.

    Negotiations could have happened at any time in 2009 had the government not been pre-occupied with the Libs.

  13. [Thomas Paine
    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Well, I have a column to write for the AFR so must be off]

    I have it on good authority is not writing you are doing? in fact what you are doing bears no resemblance to writing…care to respond?

  14. The branches in Fraser and Canberra rejected the Central office candidates and now we have Andrew Leigh and Gai Brodtmann. Well done the ACT!

  15. Rudd was the PM. So he was responsible for the Govt decisions. It’s good that he is admitting his mistakes. But that dont matter much, because he is and will not run for any domestic politcal office again. His aim is UN SecGen.

  16. [The branches in Fraser and Canberra rejected the Central office candidates and now we have Andrew Leigh and Gai Brodtmann. Well done the ACT!]

    Yep – and both good pollies now. Brodtmann was very impressive the other day on Sky. Held her own very well. Andrew Leigh is just outstanding.

  17. [Didn’t you hear that the NBN legislation is now in place? Did you hear about the passing of the Flood Levy?]

    Not from most of the MSM you wouldn’t have…

  18. rishane@2624

    Grog’s added a second post of the day to talk about Q & A: http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2011/04/kev-throws-qanda-grenade-of-sorts.html

    Grog’s right that there really wasn’t much new from Rudd tonight. I’d also say he’s right to finger Martin “Lavoisier” Ferguson:

    In reality, other than his admission of error on the CPRS, little new has been learned – perhaps the fact that some in Cabinet wanted to dump the plan completely. At a guess you’d say Martin Ferguson was in that camp. Gillard we already know was in favour of delay, Swan too. We’ve known that since last August. Sure Rudd confirms it, but that doesn’t make it new.

    So what did we learn that was new? Errr not much really, just that a politician spoke the truth. It’s a shame such a thing is a shock to both the public, the media and the politicians themselves (no doubt ALP mobile phone were ringing madly during the show).

  19. [Gillard, regardless of what she advocated in the past, has said she has changed her mind and is now pushing for a carbon price. And just quietly she is pushing for it a hell of a lot harder than Rudd ever did. She at least is talking about the economics of the price – ie that prices would go up. Rudd was too invested in the whole greatest moral challenge riff. ]

    http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2011/04/kev-throws-qanda-grenade-of-sorts.html

    Well Grog is right there. It was a great disappointment that the Greens shared none of the negotiations in the haste to wedge Turnbull. Gillard and Combet learned some lessons from it all.

  20. well not bad 2 out of 2 challenged and 2 out of 2 didn’t have the guts to respond.

    SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management.

    after watching and seeing the contributions of these persons, I am so pleased my heart and and soul says stick with Julia…

  21. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink
    2622

    ruawake

    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Winning 20 seats is way better than 1, yet some seem delighted with 1.

    Exactly.]

    Just keep it up Frank. You can reach your one seat goal by continuing along the route clearly outlined by the NSW ALP roadmap.

  22. [So Rudd told the truth tonight and admitted he stuffed up, and that people in Cabinet were advising him to dump it. Why do it given he knows how it will be reported? Obviously he still thinks the leadership is there to be won. In Government it won’t happen – the deal with the independents pretty well kills much of a chance for change, and also the ALP just could not do it again – it’d be NSW ALP like suicide (ok, so given we are talking this ALP, let’s not count it out!).

    Rudd you would think is looking ahead to a time when the ALP is in opposition and they turn back to him as some sort of return to a better time.

    For mine, I liked the way Rudd talked tonight on QANDA, but I don’t forget that Annabel Crabb’s nickname of Ruddbot was well deserved. As PM he became monotone, and also failed to adequately stick up for the BER, the insulation program and the deficit (and other policies) in the face of a pile of bull from the opposition and the media.]

    BB will be pleased to read the last sentence above – from Grog. It seems BB was the first PBer to say the failure to defend policy would be disastrous and it was.

  23. [david
    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
    well not bad 2 out of 2 challenged and 2 out of 2 didn’t have the guts to respond.]

    Challenged?

    Huh?

  24. [Thomas Paine
    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Well, I have a column to write for the AFR so must be of]

    sad for you thomas paine…the wonderful world of tech that i work in says OMG you are no longer invisable…can you believe that?….intersting i don’t worry about caps sometims or spelling…or anything

  25. [“The good thing about being foreign minister of the country is you get to do a whole lot of things which are half decent – and that’s what I enjoy doing,” he said.

    “That’s what I think is useful in the national interest and that’s what I intend to keep on doing.”]

    Wot, someone said he was goin’ to the UN and Teflon Pete was takin’ his seat.

  26. [2632

    Mod Lib

    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink
    2622

    ruawake

    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Winning 20 seats is way better than 1, yet some seem delighted with 1.

    Exactly.

    Just keep it up Frank. You can reach your one seat goal by continuing along the route clearly outlined by the NSW ALP roadmap.
    ]

    *woosh*

  27. mod lib you have proved over months you challenge SFA, you don’t even challenge your ability as a true representative of the beloved physco leader Abbott, you swish and sway like a tide on a beach,,,in other words you are a fukin nobody

  28. [Dario

    Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Does this late release of newspoll mean they are still counting?!!

    Just getting the spin right
    ]

    Or knowing us tragics are waiting for it like seagulls at asingle chip – have now decided to poast it in the early hours of the Morning so we don’t trash it.

  29. It’s probably a good Newspoll for Labor and Gillard – why they’re delaying its release. 😉

    Methinks a lot of people will be rewatching that Q&A program on the ABC site tomorrow. 😀

  30. One for Boerwar

    The myth of tribal Libya

    Portraying Libya as ‘tribal’ is not only wrong – it dismisses the notion that our uprising has anything to do with national dignity

    In the last few weeks, the word “tribalism” has been used extensively in the context of the Libyan democratic uprising – a spectre looming over the country, embodying the devil we don’t know. This was first introduced into the public mind by Saif al-Islam Gaddafi during his address last month in which he threatened the bloodshed and destruction that his father’s regime has let loose on the Libyan people.

    Disappointingly, this image of Libya as a backward tribal society with no real national identity has been picked up and amplified by many western pundits and politicians – often as part of their reasoning why military and material support for the Libyan revolution is a bad idea.

    The regime has two main aims for this repeated yet baseless claim. First, people in western Libya are largely cut off from outside media and so the assertion that the Gaddafi regime has the allegiance of regional leaders is intended to crush the confidence of those wishing to rise up in their own cities. Second, it aims to confuse outsiders into believing that the Gaddafi regime is all that’s holding together a fractured and disunited people. Images of Iraq are the desired effect. Among some in the international press and anti-interventionist movements, Gaddafi’s aims seem to have been met without much resistance.

    The myth of tribal Libya

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