The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining results from the previous two weekends, is a weak result for Labor as this series goes, with the Coalition maintaining their 50.5-49.5 lead from the poll of March 12-13. The primary vote figures likewise record little change: Labor down half a point to 37.5 per cent, the Coalition down one point to 43.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent. As always, the two-party figure I have chosen to lead with is the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” result rather than the “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” figure preferred by Morgan (51-49 to the Coalition in this case), and as always the margin of error (2.3 per cent from a sample of 1819) tells you less than this series’ evident bias to Labor.
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from very slight changes in the primary vote: Labor down a point to 36 per cent, the Coalition and Greens steady on 46 per cent and 10 per cent.
[2542
Mod Lib
Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:01 pm | Permalink
Guess which two names came first ?
Alphabetical Frank, alphabetical…
]
Vulldujst.
If you believe that Strawman then I have this Bridge For Sale.
[If Rudd is making comments that imply it was Julia G who wanted the ETS dropped then its a real cowards trick.]
He didn’t.
[One thing I am sure of is that Rudd knew exactly what he was saying tonight.]
Revenge is a dish best served cold
Another irony is that it has probably been Rudd’s performance as FM that has stopped Labor sinking even lower in the polls.
[Mod Lib: Do the Gillard supporters have the nerve to force his resignation and fight a by-election in Griffith?
I think not………..Kevin has Julia over a barrell! :D]
While Tony Jones might be wetting his pants, and some pro-Rudd adherents here are making a big thing of it, I didn’t see that dastardly self-serving stuff coming from Rudd. I saw him tactfully being as truthful as possible. He took responsibility for not doing the DD.
I reckon sometimes here, people over-analyse.
His vitriol over the factionalism wasn’t anything anyone didn’t know, and it was aimed most broadly at NSW.
[evan14
Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:03 pm | Permalink
Frank: I cite New South Wales as an example of the severe consequences of letting hacks like Arbib, Shorten, Farrell and Bitar take over the running of a government.
]
Bullshit.
It is Racial sterotyping – and I can see it a mile away
Live in 1950’s Australia.
One problem was Rudd was being much too nice to Bishop and didn’t want to attack the Coalition too much. She was smart enough to sit back and let him rip without trying to score points off him. There will be some very unhappy Labor people tomorrow.
Wait for Howes to be the first to tee off on Rudd.
jenauthor
those in the msm and the coalition are hoping that Rudd’s performance tonight can destabilise Labor. I believe Labor can actually use it to their advantage.
[He didn’t.]
Hope not vp. If the comments were more general (like some in caucus) then its not such an issue. You can bet that some of the MSM will want to spin it that way though.
[t’s called Implied Racism.
And people are blind to it.]
No, it’s called crying wolf, and when people do it too often, the real racists get away with it.
Malcolm Farr on Rudd’s appearance
[
KEVIN Rudd tonight blamed himself for the abrupt dumping of the emissions trading scheme 12 months ago, taking pressure off the woman who in turn dumped him.
“I think my judgement there was wrong,” the former Prime Minister said on ABC TV’s Q&A.
However, he acknowledged there were others in cabinet who “wanted to drop the ETS” and wanted to “junk” it.
Mr Rudd did not specifically clear Ms Gillard of the suggestion that she had lobbied heavily in cabinet for then dramatic switch in ETS policy.
But his comments will be a relief for the Prime Minister, who has not fully responded to charges that she forced her predecessor into a serious strategic mistake on climate change.
]
http://www.news.com.au/national/i-think-my-judgment-on-the-ets-was-wrong-kevin-rudd/story-e6frfkvr-1226033637403#ixzz1IYjlSm1J
[evan14
Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:00 pm | Permalink
Let’s face it, Labor so far has done a shit awful job of selling the revised carbon tax plan.]
They were damned whatever way they approached it in that if they had all the details worked out lack of consultation would have been the cries from the knockers.
There was a guy who made a statement on Qanda which alluded to the compensation being a standout winner for Jooles which I think will win the argument for Labor as well.
Dont worry Frank, I am entirely on your side.
The NSW ALP should not change anything at all.
Everything they have been doing is spot on.
Just keep on keeping on….suits me fine (I live in NSW)
BH
Rudd’s comments tonight will be of benefit to Gillard and Labor. It’s short term pain for long term gain.
Voters can smell BS a mile off regardless of their political knowledge and interest.
Honesty is the way to go.
Rudd and Julia were both placed in an extremely awkward situation regarding the ETS.
So who’s fault was that really?
The Greens!
[I reckon sometimes here, people over-analyse]
I think the words you are looking for are ‘beat’ and ‘up’
Puff,
I make my comment on Julie Bishop in the privacy of this blog. I do not put that sort of stuff on a placard and show it behind Julia Gillard when she is in public.
[Dario
Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:06 pm | Permalink
t’s called Implied Racism.
And people are blind to it.
No, it’s called crying wolf, and when people do it too often, the real racists get away with it.
]
It’s not crying Wolf.
And your defence of it imnplies that you are just as bad as those racists you seem to ber despising.
Kevin Rudd was giving straight answers to the questions. Did he say anything that anybody didn’t know or suspect? I really like having JG as PM, and think it is for the best, and ditto KR as FM. I do not care if they like each other or stick pins in each others effigies on every full moon, as long as they get their jobs done. They are both ambitious people. I assume anyone who gets to the top of the ALP tree is both ambitious and tough, and I hope, extremely talented.
So Kevin Rudd admits he made a big mistake; I am not worried by that. I am impressed.
Diogenes: who cares about Paul Howes, the mouthpiece for Bill Ludwig?
Rudd will never be a friend or ally of the factional thugs – he’s got nothing to lose on that score.
Bet there will be no mention of the MSMs role…
Mod Lib @ 2528
You really are a dunce at times or does your Tory propaganda overwhelm the truth?
The ordinary taxpayer will not be paying a carbon tax. The big polluters will.
The flow through price effects will be compensated.
Got it straight now? Don’t come that crap here again! 😡
So TP, you supported removal at the beginning is that right?
[KEVIN Rudd tonight blamed himself for the abrupt dumping of the emissions trading scheme 12 months ago, taking pressure off the woman who in turn dumped him. ]
Aw poor Rudd huggers. 😛
Haha get this
Think you should swap Mining tax and Julia Gillard into that rant…are you a hypocrite much?
[It’s not crying Wolf.
And your defence of it imnplies that you are just as bad as those racists you seem to ber despising.]
Yes, it is, and no it doesn’t
as I said, those in the msm and the coalition are hoping that it will cause unrest in the Labor ranks. If Labor are smart this will be beneficial to them in the long run.
Tomorrow the msm and the coalition will do their very best to spin it negatively.
On that note night all.
Was Rudd asked about his relationship with JG? Was he asked when was the last time he had a face to face meeting with her?
Enough of this nonsense about racism, Frank.
vp
I know it is like chatting in the lounge-room but just do a google and you will find PB may be a lot of things, but private it ain’t.
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink
Dont worry Frank, I am entirely on your side.
The NSW ALP should not change anything at all.
Everything they have been doing is spot on.
Just keep on keeping on….suits me fine (I live in NSW)
]
You don’t get it – like the others.
I’ll bet London to a Brick that if all the players were of Anglo origin you wouldn’t be as Vitriolic.
Kevin Rudd made a very good point when he said that very few of the government’s statements are reported by the press.
[If Rudd is making comments that imply it was Julia G who wanted the ETS dropped then its a real cowards trick. He is discussing whats happened in cabinet, whereas Gillard has been strongly on the record that she will not. So much for Rudds belief in CC action if he’s now trying to damage the ALP when they are trying to bring measures to do it.]
Therein lies the difference. Julia Gillard could tell a lot of stories about Kev. She could even do what he has done tonight and sort of intimate something but she is too loyal to her Party and won’t.
Watch out for the history books later – they will be doozies.
Twitter has lost the plot. I have made two tweets all night and is says I have gone over my hourly usage limit!
So TP, you supported Rudd’s removal at the beginning is that right?
evan14:
[Let’s face it, Labor so far has done a shit awful job of selling the revised carbon tax plan.]
Pretty obvious whats going on here. Arbib, Bitar and Gillard are not selling the plan properly to make the public hate the ALP. Thus when they lose the next election no government will ever again attempt to tax CO2 pollution. Its all part of the great conspiracy by the faceless men. If only Rudd hadn’t been forced by the powers of evil to shelf the ETS we would be living in paradise right now.
Mithrandir@2521
The PM and Treasurer were against it before the election – twice, and would still be against it in this parliamentary term if it weren’t for the small matter of the ‘coalition’ agreements with the Greens and independents that were essential if they were to form government the ministry that might have included a Green or indie had they been so inclined). The PM and treasurer are supporting it because they have to, to survive. Presumably the whole cabinet now supports it too out of necessity, but watch this space – Ferguson is in cabinet, and the hollow ones are everywhere.
Mod Lib: Labor in NSW has been reduced to 20 lower house seats, out of 93 – I can’t think of a better inditement of the style of politics practised by the Sussex St machine, of which Arbib and Bitar are proponents of.
Mark Arbib – one of Julia Gillard’s chief backers……need I say more?
Gillard gave teh Labor party over to the right wing trash and is one of them herself. Now. How prescient Tanner was.
This wont have the slightest effect on Gillard’s polls, may even improve Labor’s lot, to actually see someone be honest.
Puff,
“relative privacy”?
[While Tony Jones might be wetting his pants, and some pro-Rudd adherents here are making a big thing of it, I didn’t see that dastardly self-serving stuff coming from Rudd. I saw him tactfully being as truthful as possible. ]
Likewise , Jen. In fact, if Jones (and Bishop) hadn’t been so determined to cut to the “gotchas” the program would have been quite exceptional. Still interesting, and far better than usual (almost like the ABC of old) , but some real opportunities lost. But Rudd was honest and balanced, and remarkably honest in his reflections. It is a real pity that so much subsequent commentary wants to turn such stuff into “game play”, I reckon.
Ahh the mining tax TP!
You’d be thrilled to know that BHP for one traded above $47 today 🙂
[Tomorrow the msm and the coalition will do their very best to spin it negatively]
What a cynical view that is. Accurate, but cynical none the less.
New name for the Queensland LNP – The Party for Disenfranchised QLD Mayors.
Ghosties twitter feed has crashed.
Newspoll anyone?
[There was a guy who made a statement on Qanda which alluded to the compensation being a standout winner for Jooles which I think will win the argument for Labor as well.]
Paulj – I thought it interesting that the bloke also said wtte we’re going to have a carbon tax so explain the compensation. Let’s hope there are more like him and Abbott will end up looking silly.
Hilarious that Rudd is being bashed by some for being brutally honest – isn’t that what we demand of our politicians?
[Twitter has lost the plot. I have made two tweets all night and is says I have gone over my hourly usage limit!]
Same all over SK. They are obviously having problems of some kind.
[It is a real pity that so much subsequent commentary wants to turn such stuff into “game play”, I reckon.]
Nowhere more so than here.
Every day we get closer to that moment with Gillard…the moment when somebody says…’she is wearing no clothes’.
So whats the conspiracy theory here. Combet and Rudd working to white ant Gillard 🙂
[This wont have the slightest effect on Gillard’s polls, may even improve Labor’s lot, to actually see someone be honest.]
Oh, so if Gillard’s numbers hold or improve she can thank Kevin Rudd?
I suppose if they go south you’ll claim that it had nothing at all to do with Rudd.