GhostWhoVotes reports the final pre-election Newspoll provides yet more evidence that the campaign hasn’t changed a thing: the Coalition primary vote is at 50 per cent (unchanged on the last Newspoll), Labor is on 23 per cent (down three) and the Greens are on 12 per cent (up one). The two-party preferred result is 64-36, compared with 63-37 in the previous Newspoll. Kristina Keneally’s approval is down a point to 33 per cent, and her disapproval up one to 59 per cent; Barry O’Farrell is down a point on approval to 48 per cent and up two on disapproval to 39 per cent. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is up from 48-35 to 48-32. More to follow, hopefully (metro and non-metro breakdowns in particular would be appreciated).
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes reveal nothing new. We will no doubt be hearing more from The Australian tomorrow.
UPDATE 2: It seems for every poll showing Labor getting away with 63-37 or 64-36, another has come along showing it at 66-34. Step forward Galaxy, which has Labor at 22 per cent of the primary vote (down one on three weeks ago), the Coalition at 51 per cent (steady) and the Greens at 12 per cent (down two). The poll was roughly Newspoll-sized, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1000 with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Barry O’Farrell leads as preferred premier 53-33 – 20 points compared with Newspoll’s 16. The poll 53 per cent favouring Kristina Keneally as leader over John Robertson (13 per cent) and Michael Daley (11 per cent).
[steve, if polling is so good why can’t my local hospital get a GP?]
Polling wouldn’t be to get a GP it would be more to fill the wallet from punters on Betfair who think Labor will win more than 20.5 seats.
[MERCURYEDITORStuart Howie
Front page of tomorrow’s Illawarra Mercury: http://t.co/b0fLus0 #whackedoutnurse #Illawarrafloods #redv
3 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
tanya just praised KK
we’re coming back
😉
Frank:
I mean in terms of BOF having to renege on promises or find bizarre solutions in order to realise his promises.
morrison says 30 would be bad for labor
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Gus
could it be
the NARROWING 😀
[Gusface
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:38 pm | Permalink
morrison says 30 would be bad for labor
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
]
Maybe the Blank Cheque strategy is sinking in – or maybe the revolting people has affected the female vote ?
dave,
I, for one, welcome our new coalition overlords.
Seriously though…
No. No I don’t. I voted for Stuart Baanstra in the upper house because, let’s be honest here, no government has an answer for the energy, demographic and transport shocks that are about to rattle the teeth of your average mug.
Treasury run NSW anyway, and have done so since Renshaw’s day. They are like what the SECVV once was in Victoria or ther HEC in Tasmania. Problem is, we don’t vote for Treasury, only the sock puppets they run. Exhibit A: Electricity Privatisation, which is a long but simple story that has got bugger all to do with the energy sector, but which features Standard and Poors as the love interest.
I drive a truck, but even I can see this society is racing for the sewer, and hasn’t brought its toothbrush.
I give you the full Monbiot quote from before:
“Tony Blair came to power after assuring the City of his benign intentions. He then deregulated it and cut its taxes. Cameron didn’t have to assure it of anything: his party exists to turn its demands into public policy. Our ministers are not public servants. They work for the people who fund their parties, run the banks and own the newspapers, shielding them from their obligations to society, insulating them from democratic challenge.
“Our political system protects and enriches a fantastically wealthy elite, much of whose money is, as a result of their interesting tax and transfer arrangements, in effect stolen from poorer countries, and poorer citizens of their own countries. Ours is a semi-criminal money-laundering economy, legitimised by the pomp of the lord mayor’s show and multiple layers of defence in government. Politically irrelevant, economically invisible, the rest of us inhabit the margins of the system. Governments ensure that we are thrown enough scraps to keep us quiet, while the ultra-rich get on with the serious business of looting the global economy and crushing attempts to hold them to account.
“And this government? It has learned the lesson that Thatcher never grasped. If you want to turn this country into another Mexico, where the ruling elite wallows in unimaginable, state-facilitated wealth while the rest can go to hell, you don’t declare war on society, you don’t lambast single mothers or refuse to apologise for Bloody Sunday. You assuage, reassure, conciliate, emote. Then you shaft us.”
The problem is that when the people that work copped it in the neck with the supply side economic reforms of the eighties there was no one left to defend them as the left and the other usual suspects had gone off to discover their confused sexualities, hence people like Meredith Burgmann and Ian Macdonald being taken seriously. Either that or the erstwhile defenders of the working class were being fellated by Sir Peter Abeles or John Stone.
The working stiffs copped it in the neck, and corporate Australia (most visibly as Coles and Woolworths, but there are plenty of others we could put ion the dock) have been roaming across the battlefield, rolling bodies over and looking for anything shiny.
Liberal democracy is dead. My advice is to stock up on tinned food.
Actually, that is a joke Joyce.
Where’s socrates and Frankie V when you need them
[. Either that or the erstwhile defenders of the working class were being fellated by Sir Peter Abeles or John Stone.]
thanks for the visual
[the NARROWING ]
morrisons comment was
tres interesting
steve at 201 shows how politics and public policy are now two completely separate entities.
Mind you, that’s only a small solace as you wait in casualty for orthopedic assistance
Well Eddie, Labor should have been throw out in carr’s last election, imo.
In the last two elections, the libs looked even worse than labor – so labor got back when it didn’t deserve it.
I just repeat – not many voters have any idea what BOF’s policies are. There is an excellent reason why, BOF probably has no idea either.
@frank
I forgot the states’ rights bandwagon – though we do have cattle in the high country now..
@dave
The absence of policies is a huge hassle, not particulary for the voters or the general public but fus humble functionaries.
I have a theory it was the public service that came up with the idea about the full ‘manifesto’ approach to campaigns with numerous policies on everything detailed and cost estimated. Sure the public does not care but it means we can get the blue and red books done and the wheels of government move smoothly…
Anyway, no policies means we, as the people who have to impliment policy have no guidlines/ideas/anything so it is left to us second guessing…further as the oppon has been out of office for so long they need to be educted in the ways of behaving like a government…
No doubt, unless they are very well organised there will be a protracted period where ministers offices are staffed by….well just the minister and maybe if he is lucky a rep from the Department…leading to even more inaction..
That does not mean nothing will happen, on the contrary it is Day Zero and we were always at war with eastasia, thus no previous Government policy or anything that smells of the prev Govt will be continued…even if it non controversal admin matters/procedure…so expect sudden movement, machinery of Govt changes, Department renaming and rebranding.
For our lot the 2 most notable actual achievements so far are
1) removal of ‘the place to be’ slogan on the Vic Govt logo (done in a couple of weeks)
2) dropping of the target 155 water usage slogan..
Atticus, thanks so much for that. Excellent intel.
Campbell is a good man, if a bit of a galoot as a Minster (and no, this has nothing to do with Ken). Your shifts Kiera from Lib Gain to TOO CLOSE TO CALL for mine. We won’t know this one tomorrow night.
But Dorahy was a brilliant candidate. I went to school and played footy with Greg Alexander (before he got poached by St Pats) and always thought he was a shoe-in for the Liberal party in Penrith if they ever got their act together.
By the way, has anyone seen Mark Ptolemy in this campaign in Western Sydney?
Alison McLaren (ALP Blue Mountains Councillor, put out a very interesting press release this afternoon.
It will get, like, less than no media, but it does show that people in the NSW ALP are positioning themselves for a post-federal intervention NSW Branch of the ALP.
[For our lot the 2 most notable actual achievements so far are
1) removal of ‘the place to be’ slogan on the Vic Govt logo (done in a couple of weeks)
2) dropping of the target 155 water usage slogan..
]
Barnett’s first act here was to change the Govt logo.
Interstate analogies between Barry O and Big Ted are irrelevant
Big Ted is Melbourne Grammar educated and way part of the patrician establishment gets in to office by skin of teeth days after counting started and the state was well run and prosperous.
Barry O grandfather police constable, father army sergeant lived all over the place battler background gets in with huge majority having been well ahead in the polls for years. Only similarity is Liberal left faction.
NSW is by nature a Labor state have been in or 52 of last 70 years which is Crikey Poll Bludger paradise for most. The cities of Newcastle and Wollongong always vote Labor or ex Labor Independent and would have no idea what it would be like to a have a Lib representative therefore having had only Labor rulers both Newcastle and the Gong would have the best hospitals, roads, parks, Libraries, transport and amenities in NSW with all those many decades of Labor stalwarts rubbing their towns right? I lived in Belmont for a year back in 77 nice place to be sure but I have never been able to see what all these incredible Labor members do for these cities that is so great I would really like to know it must be amazing to have so many rusted ons.
The last great Labor premier was Wran and I remember 78 when he cleaned up like O Farrell is about to now even winning North Shore seats like Willoughby his government with the big majority performed superbly and forced the Libs to get rid of the dead wood in their party and rejuvenate just like Labor needs to now (Robertson is the problem not the solution).
OFarrell and his successor will get two terms and then you get it back again because it will always be a Labor state with Newcastle and Wollongong never going any other way. BTW those two cities will still not get anywhere special with their next ten twenty fifty years of Labor Mps in the future but that’s their problem
I still expect Labor 20 plus due to late sympathy vote.
Sir Humphrey – short version of your post – NSW public – bend over and touch your toes – you thought you were being screwed before. You just signed a blank cheque.
Frank Calabrese at 199,
Staffed train stations will be one of the first things to disappear under our new coalition overlords. Three ALP premiers (urged on by Treasury) tried to do this, but Nick Lewocki and John Robertson stood in their way.
The RTBU will end up like the gimp in Pulp Fiction under this government.
@confessions
[Frank:
I mean in terms of BOF having to renege on promises or find bizarre solutions in order to realise his promises.]
From my experience, new and re elected governments will do everthing (within reason) to get sensible promises included. At the moment we have been instructed that any budget/policy proposal that is additional to election commitments is number 2 for consideration.
Anything that has been dropped so far – has been dropped for a pretty good reason and would have been implimented in an ideal world.
Anyway the budget will give a bit more flavour to this Govt.
PS to my 217. No way am I saying Labor do not deserve to be chucked.
Just the voters have no idea what is coming. They have not even asked nor been told.
Bend over from monday…
[Maybe the Blank Cheque strategy is sinking in – or maybe the revolting people has affected the female vote ?]
A bit of both I suspect.
@dave
[Sir Humphrey – short version of your post – NSW public – bend over and touch your toes – you thought you were being screwed before. You just signed a blank cheque.]
I honestly dont know how it will turn out, thats is why we have had so much fun speculating with our NSW collegues. We had similiar fears here and thats is exactly what we thought the libs were going to try here but they are oh so careful not to act or appear like the old hack and slash Kennet govt they have been incapable of making decisions.
afore signing off from the nsw thread
Where are the fib cheerleaders
a very muted hubris
@eddieward
Staffed railway stations, thats luxury that is…..next thing you will say is you have guards on trains and a state run public transport system…
Sior Humphrey (Flaubert?)
You are very right and very wrong at the same time. Yes, governments come to power (as I suspect the coalition will Federally in 2013) by curling up in a ball and standing for nothing, which means that when they get in there is a bit of cosmetic surgery, but it’s the same old wife, but the fundamentals remain safely untampered. (Monbiot 2011)
The problem with this prognosis (which has a half life of your average Japanese Nuclear Plant employee) is that policy considerations DO impact on the voting public who remain incredibly ignorant of how key decisions that affect them are implemented.
The general sense of impotent rage that infects modern political discourse (Exhibit A, Carbon Tax Rally) is exactly because the policy concerns of the community are simply not addressed (see Monbiot, to lanbouir a point here).
Sooner or later som,e populoist smarty is going to come along and capture the screwed Gen X mortgagee vote. And they may not necessarily have your best interests at heart.
Atticus, agree that Rorris is a smart operator. I rate him, not the least of which because the smarties in Sussex Street (ALP, union and essential media) think he’s a loon.
If more people invested in community like Arthur Rorris does there’s be less angst in the general community regarding our political “representatives”. Let’s not forget that it was the South Coast Trades and Labour Council independent’s preferences that got the Greens over the line in Cunningham in 2002 or whenever it was. Back in Michael Organ time.
dave:
It’s going to be a rough ride. Made even worse if he coalition get a majority in the LC, either outright or with Fred Nile’s mob.
Frank:
WA is a minority Lib govt, and at least the Nats have shown some sense in keeping them honest (think stop and search laws). BOF will have a thumping majority by all accounts. Have some sympathy!
Apologies for the addon post but eddie has pretty much summed up what to expect..[Three ALP premiers ….(urged on by Treasury) ]
All policies, promises and commitments have to go though Treasury….and if NSW treasury does not like it it won’t happen. The power of Treasury is a real worry and in an ‘unexpected budget situation’ everyone listens to treasury, especially new Governments.
My post at 225 is by way of providing a more verbose thesis of dave’s most erudite assessment that we should ‘bend over from Monday’.
Get behind me Satan! And don’t spare the Vaseline!
Tanya was very sober and genuinely sad for the loss of her state colleagues tomorrow, Morrison his usual nasty self.
Sir Humphrey, You’ll be pleased to know that Treasury in NSW has been a franchise of Standard and Poors since Egan’s time.
While most sane people would gag on the idea of letting public policy (say, f’rinstance, selling off the state owned electricity generation output for 70% of its annual return value) be decided by a bunch of people who thought that mortgages given to crack addicts could be rated AAA, this is, as you astutely point out, standard procedure for the people that decide where we can live, how we can live and pay the salaries of the guys in blue shirts with guns who will come around knocking on the door if we step out of line.
Nothing to worry about there.
@Eddieward – What has Ptolemy allegedly done (or not done)?
eddieward @225
I like your assessment though, I guess I am taking it all a bit personally as there are policies and promisies out there, just nothing made in my portfolio area for NSW and Vic, so we have been a bit cynical, especially as there is about $40m worth or programs/commitments ending June 30…..I know my NSW department friends have been thinking the same thing
Tanya is sober. I hear Michael is these days too.
laz at 231, no idea.
Just wondering if Gibbo’s mates from the NUW were working for Robbo.
How’s Karen Paluzanno going these days?
eddie
@232
low
V low eddie
and a tad hypocritical if you are who I think you are
Eddieward: a fairly tasteless remark!
I’d guess Mr Cootes Trotter will be looking for a new job soon, when O’Farrell starts sacking Directors General of various departments(or the ones that aren’t to the liking of the Liberals).
The Newspoll tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/newspoll-110326-nsw.pdf
eddieward@230
Well you sound like NSW is well prepared for any vaseline activity. Down here we just hired consultants to do all the dirty work with toll roads and privatisations….the fact that some familiar faces inhabit ministers offices now is purely coincidental.
@eddie – i am sure all the unions have been out in force for robertson perhaps even the twu
For those despairing, remember when the ALP won Wakehurst?
Newspoll tables with sat predictions, 18 to labor but with cabramatta to the libs and 2 greens…never seen them do this before, but I guess they do “own newspoll”
Christ, I drive a truck for a living and I am having a hard time getting a mental picture of Tony Sheldon going into bat for Robbo.
Strange days indeed mama.
Mind you, I refer to the Alison McLaren press release I posted above.
Like REM said, I’m addressing the realpolotik.
They’re not here Gus, because the last place they would want to celebrate a Coalition victory would be with a bunch of non-fellow travellers.
We can all play “true believer” but it’s not exactly enthralling, is it? Libs tend to post at the Tally Room, where the conversation tends to be more dispassionate and about the mechanics and the numbers.
hughie
Free vass and a good rub down after?
Dont see anything in the McClaren press release other than a warning to incoming libs mps to remember western sydney or they will be out. What are you reading into eddie that is anything other than a bog standard release
@eddie at 242 but will back him in for the leadership? given the fall of the seats they might not have the luxury of splitting hairs
Greens, like John Kennedy’s Love Gone Wrong, need a miracle in Marrickville. Parker is the front runner in Balmain, but needs Firth’s preferences to get home.
hughie, I’m no true believer, but it’s it’s this dispassionate analysis typical of the Tallyroom (ironically run by the NSW Greens’ returning officer) that has infected public policy decision making for so long now that we are left with the poseurs representing us today while punlic services go to Haiti for a holiday. If that doesn’t matter to you, fine, but I live on less than 50K a year and need good sound social policy to make sure it’s worth getting up in the morning at v2am to drive my truck.
A lot of sociopaths are dispassionate.
I need something tomorrow night to lighten my gloom – I’m a fan of Nathan Rees, so him retaining Toongabbie would be terrific. If so, the Labor Party could turn to him again, after Robbo predictably blows up in 12 months time.
Unbelievable, even newspoll has done a call of the board, this is certainly an unprecedented election. Pretty arrogant for a polling company, even if they get the PV, TPP correct they can still look stupid with the individual predictions. I do see they dont have a rural metro split for votes though.
@Evan – Cant see Rees losing or returning to the leadership.
Dont know why you would want to be opposition leader so soon after the election in any event. Poisioned chalice.