Newspoll: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW; Galaxy: 66-34

GhostWhoVotes reports the final pre-election Newspoll provides yet more evidence that the campaign hasn’t changed a thing: the Coalition primary vote is at 50 per cent (unchanged on the last Newspoll), Labor is on 23 per cent (down three) and the Greens are on 12 per cent (up one). The two-party preferred result is 64-36, compared with 63-37 in the previous Newspoll. Kristina Keneally’s approval is down a point to 33 per cent, and her disapproval up one to 59 per cent; Barry O’Farrell is down a point on approval to 48 per cent and up two on disapproval to 39 per cent. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is up from 48-35 to 48-32. More to follow, hopefully (metro and non-metro breakdowns in particular would be appreciated).

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes reveal nothing new. We will no doubt be hearing more from The Australian tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: It seems for every poll showing Labor getting away with 63-37 or 64-36, another has come along showing it at 66-34. Step forward Galaxy, which has Labor at 22 per cent of the primary vote (down one on three weeks ago), the Coalition at 51 per cent (steady) and the Greens at 12 per cent (down two). The poll was roughly Newspoll-sized, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1000 with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Barry O’Farrell leads as preferred premier 53-33 – 20 points compared with Newspoll’s 16. The poll 53 per cent favouring Kristina Keneally as leader over John Robertson (13 per cent) and Michael Daley (11 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

319 comments on “Newspoll: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW; Galaxy: 66-34”

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  1. Newspoll have surmised that there will be a swing of 20% to the Libs in Sydney, 11% outside Sydney and then just applied it to the pendulum. An overly simplistic approach. If they did the margins for Liberal seats they would probably come upwith Barry O’Farrell in Ku Ring Gai having a majority of more than 50%.

    Just as North Shore seats don’t have much upside for the Libs, there are regional seats that don’t have much upside for the Libs and Nats – so best not take the Newspoll seat predictions as gospel. What is does suggest is that there may be general election swings tomorrow (as opposed to by election swings) unparalleled anywhere in the Westminster world.

  2. [If more people invested in community like Arthur Rorris does there’s be less angst in the general community regarding our political “representatives”. Let’s not forget that it was the South Coast Trades and Labour Council independent’s preferences that got the Greens over the line in Cunningham in 2002 or whenever it was. Back in Michael Organ time.]

    Eddie,

    Spot on about Rorris, alongside whom I’ve fought (and lost) a few battles. Rorris is fearless against the forces of darkness (and Bluescope Steel is no puny force).

    It was indeed SCLC prefs that got Organ over the line. Alas, Organ is well-meaning academic, but a supercillious public speaker, and Sharon Bird romped home in the re-run despite Latham’s lead in her saddlebags.

    Also spot on about Brandy Alexander—I worked in Penrith most of the period he led the Panthers. His brother’s death might have impacted upon his willingness to ever run for office.

  3. gus and evan14, Michael COUTTS-trotter (do get the spelling right old chap), will be kept on indefinitely by O’Farrell unless he snatches it. He’s too useful for them as a whipping boy for the next youtube bullying sensation if this time it happens outside of the Catholic system. Or whatever shock horror Bruce Macdougall comes up with for the Tele. You want to understand what’s wrong with the ALP, have a chat to the bloke who’s looking at you next time you have a shave.

  4. A possible silver lining in the big dark cloud for Labor!
    Latest Sportsbet odds on Monaro!
    Steve Whan 1.60
    National Party candidate 2.10

    Hadn’t most people written off Monaro for Labor?

  5. Besides, O’Farrell went on the record as saying that Coutts=Trotter’s job was safe. That must be true then, mustn’t it?

    And gus, if it’s hypocritical, who the f^ck am, I then?

    I’m certainly not either an ex heroin user or the secretary general of the NSW Department of Education. I said we didn’t have to go to this CV, so let’s not, mkay?

  6. eddieward @ 208

    [Where’s socrates and Frankie V when you need them]

    Trying to work out your rationale for calling Bankstown as a close contest.

    The Lib candidate hardly looks like a winner . . .

    [THE family of Bankstown Liberal candidate Bill Chahine was involved in a controversial land deal with a school linked to a ”radical cult” that ended up costing taxpayers almost $6 million dollars in compensation.

    When the state government sold the surplus land in 2006, it thought it was selling to a residential developer, Gardenview Apartments. The director of the company at the time was Mr Chahine’s father . . .]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/the-candidate-a-radical-cult-and-6m-squandered-on-the-college-that-never-was-20110226-1b98p.html

    [“Department of Education and Training guidelines specifically prohibit the sale of public school land to independent schools,”]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/private-college-buys-school-land/story-e6freuzi-1111113944589

    I’m a Liberal voter and I’d be voting Labor if I lived there.

  7. laz,

    My mail is people are predicting Federal intervention as soon as Bitar has cleaned out his desk and people are positioning themselves accordingly. Which is no bad thing.

    *cough* Borger

  8. SportsBet odds as at 11.15pm:-
    Balmain
    Parker – $1.48
    Any other- $2.55
    Firth – $8

    Blue Mountains
    Sage – $1.25
    Any other – $4
    Doyle – $11

    Cessnock
    Barr – $1.85
    Davey – $1.87
    Others – $12

    Granville
    issa – $1.70
    Borger – $2.05
    Other – $14

    Keira
    Dorahy – $1.70
    Park – $2.00
    Others $34

    Kogarah
    Hindi – $1.33
    Burton $2.50
    Other – $67

    Macquarie Fields
    Eskaros – $1.41
    McDonald – $2.45
    others – $101

    Marrickville
    Byrnes – $1.22
    Tebbutt – $3.00
    Others – $51

    Monaro
    Whan – $1.60
    Barilaro – $2.10
    Others – $81

    Newcastle
    Tate – $1.33
    McKay – $3.50
    Owen $4.50
    Others – $71
    Sutton – $101

    Port Macquarie
    Williams – $1.25
    Besselling – $3.00
    Others – $101

    Strathfield
    Casuscelli – $1.25
    Judge – $3.15
    Others – $101

    Wollongong
    Hay – $1.80
    Bradberry – $1.85
    Blcavs – $23
    Cook $67
    Other – 201

  9. Gusface

    MCT was a heroin addict and served time in one of her majesty’s prisons for dealing – went into rehab afterwards. He has been very open about it.

  10. eddie

    mCT did go thru a “phase”

    the rehahsing of his history is the lowest form of debasement

    next some wag will suggest tanya shot up too

    I thought you were for the substance sic not the spin?

  11. Atticus at5 252,

    Ben was the better man. A big loss for an entire community.

    Shit, I remember when Penrith was a community.

  12. bbs

    the operative word word is WAS

    (I think this revisiting of past transgressions demeans the quality of debate)

    mCT as SEc Ed has caused some major organisational changes

    to tar him from the past is the same as pointing out howard’s family were white slavers in PNG in anem if not fact

    fact but irrelevant to present circumstances

  13. Frankie V at 258,

    Have you SEEN the independents in Bankstown??!? It’s like getting shot driving past a KFC, it’s only gonna happen either Roberts Road or in Bankstown.

    One of my sources was at Lakemba mosque today. “An anglo circus” he described it as.

  14. @Eddie- I also have heard Federal intervention. But what is it going to mean really? Clean out of Head Office? Clean out of Admin? And when it is restored to state control – resumption of normal business.

  15. [In June 1992 his younger brother and fellow Panthers team-mate Ben Alexander was killed in a car accident.[2] Alexander missed the majority of fixtures that year and continually fell beyond his usual playing weight and ended the season ten kilograms lighter.[2]]

    FMD

    apols

    i blame alzheimers or the sands of time

    apols to greg

    🙁

  16. Gus,

    Always a pleasure to be corrected by you, Compadre! 😉

    How about this from Wiki?

    [Full name Gregory Peter Stephen Alexander
    Nickname Brandy
    Born 4 March 1965 (age 46)
    1984–1994 Penrith Panthers 196 93 335 11 1053
    1995–1996 Auckland Warriors 37 11 8 0 60
    1997–1999 Penrith Panthers 31 8 8 3 51
    Representative
    Years Team Pld T G FG P
    1989–1991 New South Wales 6 0 2 0 4
    1986–1990 Australia 6 4 10 0 36
    1997 New South Wales (SL) 1 1 0 0 4]

  17. [Liberal democracy is dead. My advice is to stock up on tinned food.

    Actually, that is a joke Joyce.

    Where’s socrates and Frankie V when you need them]
    Watching Geelong beat St Kilda by one point! 🙂
    I hope there is an equally pleasant distraction tomorrow night. Nirvanna and Janis Ian music should be banned. So should watching DVDs of the following:

    Deep Impact
    Armageddon
    Downfall

    Preferably, play a good comedy (Dave?), emigrate to Queensland for four years, and hope Anna Bligh keeps going on recent form. Seriously, the result will be all over bar the shouting by 6.30pm, so plan to do something fun for the night.

  18. gus, I said no one wanted to revisit this CV.

    And you also said that you knew who I was. Which you don’t.

    So lets draw a line under this shall we?

    At least dovif can be written off as a partisan freak.

    gos, you are, well…

    special. But not as in school.

  19. Eddieward – I heard a medium-league operator in the Vic ALP say around Sept last year they were being brought in to fix up NSW. I guess now they’ve lost they’ve got some time on their hands, right?

  20. socrates!

    Kerrist!

    When I gave up on NSW in 1989 I moved to Melbourne and fell in love with tram conductors, a beautiful woman and the Fitzroy Football Club.

    Now I have none of the three.

    But it was learning about football from Phil Cleary that made me appreciate Australian tribalism, which is a lot healthier than Catherine Lumby would have you believe. Rusted on labor voters need a hobby. The AFL is as good as any.

  21. I ahve had a look at bthe currently held ALP seats and have come up with the following predictions

    I am tipping the ALP to hold 18 with four 50/50s i am tippping the Greens to win Marrickville.

    Auburn ALP
    Balmain Lib/Nat
    Bankstown ALP
    Bathurst Lib/Nat
    Blacktown ALP
    Blue Mountains Lib/Nat
    Cabramatta 50/50 ALP ahead but have heard that this might be the one big chance the Libs have of claiming it
    Camden Lib/Nat
    Campbelltown 50/50 ALP
    Canterbury ALP
    Cessnock Lib/Nat
    Charlestown ALP
    Coogee Lib/Nat
    Drummoyne Lib/Nat
    East Hills Lib/Nat
    Fairfield ALP
    Gosford Lib/Nat
    Granville 50/50 ALP ahead but i can see it falling
    Heathcote Lib/Nat
    Heffron ALP
    Keira Lib/Nat
    Kiama Lib/Nat
    Kogarah Lib/Nat
    Lakemba ALP
    Liverpool ALP
    Londonderry Lib/Nat
    Macquarie Fields ALP
    Maitland Lib/Nat
    Maroubra ALP
    Marrickville Greens
    Menai Lib/Nat
    Miranda Lib/Nat
    Monaro ALP
    Mount Druitt ALP
    Mulgoa Lib/Nat
    Newcastle IND
    Oatley Lib/Nat
    Parramatta Lib/Nat
    Riverstone Lib/Nat
    Rockdale Lib/Nat
    Shellharbour ALP
    Smithfield Lib/Nat
    Strathfield 50/50 ALP ahead but i can see falling
    Swansea ALP
    The Entrance Lib/Nat
    Toongabbie ALP
    Wallsend ALP
    Wollondilly Lib/Nat
    Wollongong ALP
    Wyong Lib/Nat

  22. laz,

    apparently Cameron’s crew, which means Albo won’t be far behind (self interest much?).

    Also, as other posters have pointed out tonight, there’s a rank and file show getting on a roll, and the rankest and the filest of nhem are involved.

    If I was a smart man, which many doubt, I’d watch what Rorris does, and he’s not even in the party from what I understand.

    What will be entertaining will be watching the Ferg trying to get his job back at Liudcombe. I wonder if the Cuban band will help him out?

  23. kaz,

    re Fewderal intervenbtiuon in the NSW ALP. I think it will be more like Victoria in ’69 than NSW in ’74. I think it will be root and branch (existing exec and admin ctee barred from office for 18 months, etc) from the oil I am hearing.

    But the problem is, they need the money, so they can’t copmpletely p[iss oiff the ETU, the SDA and the AWU.

    Watch for the Blaxland boys heavy hand. Now there’s a thinker. He had a think a while ago.

    Anyway, ask Peter Lewis, he’ll be advising the new mob either way.

  24. eddieward

    Quality choices! If it is any comfort I still follow the Brisbane Lions myself, and I can still take comfort in the three premieships, adn teh fact that they cannot mess up their recruitign any worse than the past two ywars. We can always keep fond memories of the things we love.

    BTW I have spent a fair bit of time planning tram and light rail systems over the years.

    I think the thing to do tomorrow is take a lead from Monty Python’s “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life” and not get grumpy. Life is too short.

    Night all; chin up those manning booths tomorrow.

  25. sorates,

    There is no tram from Brunswick Street to Brisbane.

    You around here tomorrow night? I was going to post some quotes from budget estimates that should provide some light relief.

  26. Need a shaker in the right to do this.. Considering that the various secretaries of the SDA, AWU, ETU, TWU, etc are on admin do you think they will agree to be booted out and then continue to fund?

    The right had a dalliance with a left leader. dont think they want to go back there? perhaps they do.

  27. Given up waiting for any explanation of why the rusted ons keep voting for the same part election after election in the Hunter and the Gong I suppose it is like football fanatics supporting loser teams because it is the family tradition I guess that’s why Penrith is ,more dynamic than either of those cities it has less resources to start with but has plenty of go getters it changes sides to suit the times and in football, Leagues club etc went from cellar dwellers chocolate soldiers to giving it a go and premiership Mark Geyer would be a great pollie or a TiM Sheens.
    Newcastle teams in any sport always go broke I guess it’s just the mentality.

  28. Stanny – I think people don’t change their voting purly because when you live in a safe seat you are surrounded by people who think and talk in a particulary way and from an early age you hear steriotyped views of people from other places.

    Whether that be toffs or posh or stuck up or bludgers or bogans and when you miss someone from other places you look for evidence to confirm the steriotype.

  29. miss = meet

    James J – There is something to be said for that poll for in other recent elections we have seen movemetn during the campaign but it would appear that NSW has been fixed. even in the 1992 election there was a bit of movement with the ALP grawling back a few points but this landslide has just remained.

  30. OK Eddie, you’re not who I thought you were and I think you are making a false trail.
    For the sake of the Claremont Meadows branch of the party, give this old Penrith boy a decent hint.

  31. stanny, you got it.

    It’s tribal. Like football.

    People don’t understand how the policy decision process works. I’ll give you a f’risntance.

    Prior to Gough Whitlam, south west Sydney was growing willy nilly and had no sewerage system. Everyone, even Frankie V, had septic tanks. Now, unless you’ve been in either Western Sydney on a foggy winters morning in the early seventies, the northern suburbs of Adelaide in the mid nineties (when they privatised their sewerage system) or you go to some really cool clubs where you get to put your head inside a complete strangers’ anus for two hours, you have no idea what that smelt like. Considering that 100,000 people (this is early seventies numbers) got up and had a shit first thing every morning I’ll leave that bit to your imagination.

    Gough, who grew up in Canberra, realised this was no good, even before the ALP people told him because he had olfactory senses. So the Whitlam government paid, at big dosh, for the southwestern suburbs of Sydney to be connected to a sewerage system, which was owned and run by the NSW government.

    As a result an entire generation of people in southwestern Sydney fell in love with Gough and the ALP.

    When you’ve spent the first third of your life in a European village, the second third wading through an overflowing septic system it’s easy to fall in love with the person, and their party, who saved you from that stench for the third part of your life.

    Hence why the ALP will still poll a strong base in southwest Sydney.

    Now, does that make sense. And does anyone notice the link between, gee, good public policy and popular support.

    And I wonder oif anyone did a cost benefit analysis on whether or not people in southwestern Sydney should wake up to the smell of shit every morning.

  32. Augustus Caesar found Rome a city of stone and left it a city of marble
    Gough found Western Sydney on the pan and left it connected to the mains.

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