Newspoll: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW; Galaxy: 66-34

GhostWhoVotes reports the final pre-election Newspoll provides yet more evidence that the campaign hasn’t changed a thing: the Coalition primary vote is at 50 per cent (unchanged on the last Newspoll), Labor is on 23 per cent (down three) and the Greens are on 12 per cent (up one). The two-party preferred result is 64-36, compared with 63-37 in the previous Newspoll. Kristina Keneally’s approval is down a point to 33 per cent, and her disapproval up one to 59 per cent; Barry O’Farrell is down a point on approval to 48 per cent and up two on disapproval to 39 per cent. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is up from 48-35 to 48-32. More to follow, hopefully (metro and non-metro breakdowns in particular would be appreciated).

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes reveal nothing new. We will no doubt be hearing more from The Australian tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: It seems for every poll showing Labor getting away with 63-37 or 64-36, another has come along showing it at 66-34. Step forward Galaxy, which has Labor at 22 per cent of the primary vote (down one on three weeks ago), the Coalition at 51 per cent (steady) and the Greens at 12 per cent (down two). The poll was roughly Newspoll-sized, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1000 with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Barry O’Farrell leads as preferred premier 53-33 – 20 points compared with Newspoll’s 16. The poll 53 per cent favouring Kristina Keneally as leader over John Robertson (13 per cent) and Michael Daley (11 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

319 comments on “Newspoll: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW; Galaxy: 66-34”

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  8. Never has so much money been spent and so much effort expended for so little result. The last 6 weeks have been a waste of time. The electorate made its mind up months if not years ago.

    I revise my prediction downwards to 15 seats for ALP. Given Mr Lalich’s efforts of the last few days I would not be surprised to see Cabramatta fall to the Libs.

  9. Here’s the last page of an overlong “Illawarra Mercury” Editorial which recommends its readers vote for Independent David Bradbery in the seat of Wollongong. It is interesting that the editors failed to acknowledge their own significant efforts to promote Mr. Bradbery’s candidacy for the past 12 months.

    As someone mentioned on the last thread, when there’s a landslide, MLA Independents have a negligible role to play in that Parliament, but that might change in 2015 ala Nick Greiner’s second term reliance on Independents Hatton, Moore and MacDonald to stay in power.

    The editors comments about sitting ALP member Noreen Hay are, sadly, not wide of the mark.

    Btw, also last thread, EddieWard asked for what union Shellharbour’s ALP candidate, Anna Watson, works as an Organiser: it’s the United Services Union.

    [Sitting Labor member Noreen Hay would be the first to admit she would not win a popularity contest like Australian Idol. But she could be guaranteed to go the distance in Survivor.
    Ms Hay has many political foes, notably ones in her own party. They and others have been running an anti-Noreen campaign.
    Fundamentally, we ask, has she delivered for her constituents and can we do better?
    In some ways, Noreen Hay epitomises what is wrong with Labor. Just as her party has been preoccupied with factional plays and politics, she has too often been caught up in what we would call the business of politics.
    We don’t doubt her genuine efforts for her core supporters in the ethnic community and in Wollongong’s working-class suburbs.
    However, too much of her energy, it would seem to us, is spent on maintaining her power base rather than it being devoted to the wider interests of a city crying out for leadership in such challenging times.
    Politics is the mechanism in a democracy to bring about change for the better for a community. But it is not the means and the end.
    The Liberal candidate Michelle Blicavs and the high-profile padre, Gordon Bradbery, are credible alternatives at this point in Wollongong’s history.
    Ironically, a scandal-plagued Labor government felt compelled to sack our “systemically corrupt” local government (fuelled by the misdeeds of Labor-endorsed councillors). We should not forget the infamy this brought upon all of us – and local democracy must be restored. Our CBD is also in dire need of revitalisation.

    The Liberals say that a Liberal member in conjunction with a Liberal government would deliver the services and projects we need.

    We are suspicious. With the election pendulum likely to swing back, in part, to Labor next time around, and with Illawarra seats possibly falling back to Labor, we are not sure Barry O’Farrell will have the political incentive.

    Hence, as part of the new mix, an independent has strong appeal.

    Pastor Gordon Bradbery is not the messiah. His campaign smacks of a political novice. He preaches an “anti-corruption” and ethical line; that he won’t be beholden to anyone. But as we have revealed, key business movers and shakers in Wollongong are behind him. If elected, how will he play to their expectations?

    That said, Mr Bradbery provides a new energy.

    We end on this note because Wollongong is the contest that will define change in the Illawarra. Fancy a seat with a 25 per cent margin falling?

    And, overall, if five Labor seats become one or two Labor seats, two or three Liberal ones and an independent, we suddenly have a more vibrant mix.

    We have spoken boldly here because in a world that is moving so fast these are not times for the timid.

    You may disagree with elements of what we have said – or everything. Perhaps you’ll agree. But it is right that we have a say on something of such importance.

    On Saturday you have your say. Use it wisely and use it for the Illawarra.]

  12. If Labor is to be reduced to the size of a cricket team, you’d hope it’s at least their best remaining 12 or 13 MPs, and in my book – that wouldn’t include Nick Lalich.
    Overall, I’m resigned to what’s going to happen on Saturday – the only remaining suspense about this election will be the size of the massive swing against the ALP.

  13. Evan,
    What you said.

    Wollongong’s Noreen Hay wouldn’t be included in anybody’s Parliamentary “Dream Team” either.

    All the same, interesting to see the composition of the new Legislative Council.

    I saw Peter Debnam state in a tv interview today that O’Farrell will have no mandate to implement reforms because he missed a golden opportunity to put them before the voters. The Leg. Council could justify rejecting bills on that basis.

    If O’Farrell goes the mongrel, like Greiner did, then the ALP revival will commence upon the next by-election.

  18. [What’s the worst thrashing in post-War history?]

    That’d be SA ’93 – the Libs got 61% TPP.

    I think Lynn Arnold will be feeling a bit better about himself in a couple of days’ time…

  19. Er, William, I am loathe to point out any errors as you are infallible, so it must be those Crikey subbies who in the heading noted the Galaxy Poll result as “66-44”.
    That’s the sort of maths Sussex Street could do.

  20. Considering this election was going to be lost by the ALP in 2007 when they elected a card board cut out as premier, then replaced him with other cardboard cutouts for the next 3 years so why has any pollster wasted a second doing their dopey little polls.

  21. [JoeHockeyJoe Hockey

    On Sunrise @7am from Pt Macquarie where Independent State MP backed Labor in Parl.on crucial no confidence votes. Vote1Nationals.

    4 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  24. How is it possible that the ALP PV is ~13% lower in NSW than in Federal Polls yet the Greens vote is unchanged. Have they not picked up 1% of the mass that have abandoned Labor?

    Surely this is a sign of one of the worst Greens campaigns in recent history. I mean imagine running a campaign without a Leader: its madness.

    I now doubt they will pick up a single lower house seat.

  25. Dio 3

    I think even Manstein couldn’t do much without fresh troops in this contest. Mind, the red army ranks are looking a lot thinner these days.

    [I think Lynn Arnold will be feeling a bit better about himself in a couple of days’ time…]
    Arnold should never feel bad about that. Arnold didn’t send SA broke. Nobody other than Bannon, and a host of former treasury and bank officials, should feel guilty about that one.

  27. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/therell-barely-be-a-labor-party-left-after-the-election/story-fn7q4q9f-1226027698798

    But the poll, of 1000 voters taken on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, found the result will be more a rejection of Labor than an endorsement of Mr O’Farrell.

    Sixty nine per cent thought the Coalition would win because Labor deserved to lose.

    Only 24 per cent believe the Coalition deserved to win.

    Pessimistic senior Labor sources appeared to back the poll yesterday, saying they were regarding only eight to nine seats as “safe” and a further 14 as “winnable”.

    The key reasons for Labor’s defeat, voters thought, were mismanagement [35 per cent], followed by the “it’s time” factor [23 per cent].

    Eighteen per cent believed that the defeat would come because of too many scandals, 14 per cent because of too much influence by backroom people and 8 per cent because of poor leadership.

  28. shepherdmarilyn

    The ALP cutout was better then the Liberal cutout in 2007. If only Brogden had kept his hands to himself, NSW, NSW ALP and NSW Liberals would all be better off. So the NSW ALP post election script will just say it is Brogden’s fault

  29. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/fiona-byrne-dodges-on-israel-boycott/story-fn59niix-1226027734069

    The Australian’s love affair with Fiona Bryne continues, all Liberal supporters should preference the ALP in this seat

    Fiona Byrne, the Greens candidate in the inner-western Sydney seat of Marrickville, initially denied to The Australian she had agreed to address the “Sing Out Against Apartheid: Boycott Divestment and Sanctions” rally outside Sydney’s Town Hall next Wednesday.

    “Fiona has not agreed to speak at any events next week,” a Greens spokesman responded to inquiries. However, after being shown a flyer for the event, a Greens spokeswoman said: “I can confirm that earlier this month Fiona accepted an invitation to speak at the event as the (Marrickville) Mayor. This week Fiona decided to clear her diary to take a break after the election, and she extended her apologies to the event organiser that she could no longer speak at the event.”

  30. Some foolhardy soul was brandishing a poster of Pauline Hanson (looked circa 1996) on the northern approach to the Harbour Bridge this morning

  31. While I don’t normally comment too much on road safety vs speed cameras, this is another example of bad government in NSW: the Cabinet Budget Committee has reduced the margin for enforcement on speed cameras to 2 km/hr:
    http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/revealed-margin-for-error-on-speeding-reduced-to-zero-20110324-1c8kp.html

    This is pure revenue raising and has nothing to do with road safety. Properly used I support speed cameras, and agree that the policing of speeding in urban areas contributes to road safety. But there is NO EVIDENCE that a speed difference of 2 km/hr makes any difference to road safety. There can’t be – there is no data. You couldn’t even detect a 2 km/hr speed differential when anaylsing a crash scene. I fear that this sort of cash grab can be counter-productive for road safety – making drivers cynical about speed cameras and less likely to obey speed limits when there is not a camera present.

  32. The price of a bad govenment. The opposition has over 43 billion of unfunded promises that are passing almost without scrutiny:
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/coalition-looks-to-future-to-fund-68b-poll-promises-20110324-1c8jo.html
    [To fund promises it has identified savings including more than $1 billion from ”better value for money from government procurement” and $2.4 billion from deferring Labor’s Western Express and Parramatta-to-Epping rail lines.

    Much of the spending has been loaded into the 2014-15 financial year. Figures reveal it will spend just $1.2 billion on its promise to build the north-west rail link by 2013-14. The remaining $1.2 billion is forecast to be spent the following year.

    No money has been allocated for its centrepiece promise of a new convention and exhibition centre at Darling Harbour.]
    The Parramatta Epping money in 75% Federal, and is project specific i.e. not transferrable. Likewise the chance of a convention centre/exhibition centre making money on its own is zero, so the PPP will only go ahead with government subsidy or transfer of State land for nix.

  34. Socrates – Why wouldn’t the Federal Government sit down with NSW when the election is over to determine which rail network is more needed in western Sydney?

  35. @24

    Probably Federal factors result in the Greens being seen as too close to Labor, and people want to make 110% sure there’s no chance of Labor sneaking back in with Green/Ind support.

    Fiona Byrne’s fruitloopery seems to have done alot of damage to the Greens’ attempted “soft face” image as well.

  36. The key issue here is that there has not been the wieght of expectations attached to a Greens breakthrough as there was in the victorian election.

    The polls have been consistent and I do not expect that the Greens vote will be below the level in the latest polls. (My memory is that the Essential Poll in the Federal election was actually below the vote they recorded at a national level.)

    The other curiousity is that if the victorian experience is anything to go by you might expect that the final percentage for the Greens after counting is completed will be up to half a percentage point above their vote at the close of counting on Saturday night.

  37. Socrate

    In my opinion, speed camera probably causes accident.

    I have seen a lot of cars braking hard when they get near the speed camera, and I know I spend my time checking my speed when I am near one. if someone brakes in front of me, when I am near a camea, I could easily have an accident

  38. The Victorian and NSW state elections are wholly different. In Melbourne state seat, if there had been the same sort of swings against Labor as is in NSW, it would have been a Greens vs Liberal race and Greens would have won on Labor preferences.

  39. Good to see the Greens holding the Coalition’s promises on Part 3A to account – it is a hot issue around these parts.

    Did anyone notice in the SMH yesterday – “In the Herald – 1937” – “The NSW Cabinet rejected a proposal for construction of a railway from Eastwood to St Leonards. The Premier, Bertram Stevens, said a good road costing 100,000 pounds would serve present needs and that in a few years, the government might review the idea”.

    The more things change, the more they stay the same!

    Any thoughts on the Legislative Council? This will surely be much more significant than whether the ALP has 22 seats or 25.

  40. A few in this blog have mentioned the high ethical standards of Mr Nick Lali?. I was particularly affronted by the attempt to smear Dai Le, a refugee from post-war Vietnam. Looking at her and my local Liberal candidate, another Asian-Australian, makes me realise Barry O’Farrell is no Tony Abbott. Nobody has gone to the gutter with regards to Nick, by accusing him of association with Captain Dragan. Shame, Nick, shame.

  41. I’m expecting a repeat of SA to happen. The ALP almost won four years later in 1997. It’s a similar situation here, where the Libs rarely win State Elections. Since 1968, they have had a single term from 1979 – 1984 and then the landslide Election in 1993 and scrapped in 1997.

    Think of some of the crap pots that will be elected in the landslide. Not being able to meet expectations and then the Libs will do what they always do, sell everything off, privatize and contract out. People do not want that. They want services.

    What might seem a landslide now, won’t last.

  42. Am I the only one feeling really down today! Whatever happened to the once great Party which has now become usurped by the political class.

    Scott love your Keating photos. Them were the days!

  43. Shellbell

    O’Farrell has said nothing about using the money from Parramatta Epping to fund other rail lines in western Sydney. If you follow the timeline in the Liberal statements, they are ripping money out of Parramatta Epping now, and maybe building a NW rail line later (2013/14+). So it is not a case of changing where they spend the rail money. They are just canning a rail project and assuming they can use the money for something else.

    Besides, regardless of the politics behind its rapid introduction, Parramatta Epping is not a bad project. It needs doing, as does NW Sydney rail. you can’t just tack NW Sydney onto the end of the network. For the extra trains from it to reach the CBD, more track capacity is needed closer in as well.

  44. Reality will dawn next week, when the real state of NSW finances and the deals are releases. ICAC will need more staff

  45. MTBW – this is the best chance you can get for a new beginning. What would be really depressing is if there is no change post the election.

  48. It will be interesting to see how the Coalition dictatorship will operate in NSW.

    No doubt it will start out very hairy chested, masking unpopular decisions with declarations of war against the Gillard Government.

    After a little while the O’Farrell despotism will become tentative and timid as it tries to preserve its vast backbench by pleasing everyone and offending no-one.

    Meanwhile, the poor old Labor Party, battered, broke and bereft of its best brothers and sisters, will be impotent and irrelevant for decades to come.

    And the Greens will look in the mirror and say ‘How good are we!’ as they march in all directions to nowhere.

  49. Feeling very depressed too – I’ll only vote tomorrow to avoid getting fined $55 by the electoral commission, but I’ll be doing it without any enthusiasm or faith in the democratic process.
    The prospect of Fatty O’Farrell running a dictatorship in this state for the next 10 years fills me with dread!

  50. How will it be irrelevant for decades to come? That is what they said here in SA in 1993. Labor almost won in 1997! Why? Because the Liberals do not know how to manage a state and listen to the people.

    The swing can come back the other way – just as hard.

    I bet the Libs will sell off Sydney Water and the rest of the Electricity assets.

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