GhostWhoVotes reports the final pre-election Newspoll provides yet more evidence that the campaign hasn’t changed a thing: the Coalition primary vote is at 50 per cent (unchanged on the last Newspoll), Labor is on 23 per cent (down three) and the Greens are on 12 per cent (up one). The two-party preferred result is 64-36, compared with 63-37 in the previous Newspoll. Kristina Keneally’s approval is down a point to 33 per cent, and her disapproval up one to 59 per cent; Barry O’Farrell is down a point on approval to 48 per cent and up two on disapproval to 39 per cent. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is up from 48-35 to 48-32. More to follow, hopefully (metro and non-metro breakdowns in particular would be appreciated).
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes reveal nothing new. We will no doubt be hearing more from The Australian tomorrow.
UPDATE 2: It seems for every poll showing Labor getting away with 63-37 or 64-36, another has come along showing it at 66-34. Step forward Galaxy, which has Labor at 22 per cent of the primary vote (down one on three weeks ago), the Coalition at 51 per cent (steady) and the Greens at 12 per cent (down two). The poll was roughly Newspoll-sized, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1000 with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Barry O’Farrell leads as preferred premier 53-33 – 20 points compared with Newspoll’s 16. The poll 53 per cent favouring Kristina Keneally as leader over John Robertson (13 per cent) and Michael Daley (11 per cent).
[MTBW – this is the best chance you can get for a new beginning. What would be really depressing is if there is no change post the election.]
Not much chance of that if Labor after the weekend is reduced to a rump of non-entities like Nick Lalich & Noreen Hay, with that hack Robbo running the show.
Better get used to 2 decades of Coalition dominance.
[Better get used to 2 decades of Coalition dominance.]
wtf
that makes my ramblings seem tame
if fatty wins it will be a oncer
KK is secretly campaigning for the next election
😉
I don’t even expect Nathan Rees, David Borger and Andrew McDonald will survive the weekend annihilation, and almost none of the fresh candidates Labor had selected will be elected(with the exception of one or two).
It’s Ground Zero, very ground zero!
I love how everything keeps saying it’s the end of Labor in NSW. It won’t be. The Government will not be able to handle such a huge amount of MP’s and I bet quiet a few crackpots.
As for the Greens…….they’ll be completely irrelevant, even if they win 2 lower house seats.
I think they might come to regret not doing a preference swap deal with Labor in the Upper House. 😉
It will be irrelevant because it is no longer the Labor Party of old, when it really stood for something, and therefore lacks the ability to renew itself.
Modern political parties lack ideals and are simply marketing machines.
Kim Beazley senior once said something like: “The Labor Party used to consist of the cream of the working class; now it’s the dregs of the middle class.”
On an upper house preference deal with the Greens – unlikely to yield anything for the ALP – Greens that want to support the ALp by passing on preferences will do so and those who don’t would have been most unlikely to do anything just because the party recommended it.
Anthony Green has pointed out that under the current voting system such preferences are unlikely to make much difference in any case.
Greens directing preferences to Labor in Coogee, Toongabbie & Granville – might make a difference?
Remember, Politicians are like underpants, At first they are uncomfortable and restrictive, then they settle in but if you don’t change them oftem enough they start to stink and cause problems.
I’m hoping to see a new face in the seat of Sydney. Adrian Bartels (Lib) is a breath of fresh air. Clover is too old, too green and too out of touch. It’s the nursing home for that old brood mare.
Has anyone done the numbers on how many labor party staffers will get the boot? this will be a major blow to NSW labor infrastucture and ability to organise for the next federal election
Evan 14 Depends on the exhaust rate doesn’t it – the evidence of the Penrith bye-election doesn’t create a lot of room for hope for the ALP candidates
Keneally is a good leader (as was Rees) but nobody’s listening any more.
Parties can recover from cataclysmic defeats. Canada’s Progressive Conservatives (a non-sequitor if ever there was one) were reduced to something like three MPs under FPTP a few elections back but now run a minority national government.
On the other hand, Britain’s Liberal Party in 1914 held 216 seats in parliament and governed the country; by 1935 it was down to a score of members and never really recovered (though now as the Liberal Democrats, having previously merged with the Social Democrats, descendants of the Liberals are now in a coalition with the Conservatives and awaiting the wrath of voters for breaking key election promises).
Kevrenor – I agree the legislative council is more interesting than the LA, however due to preferences the final result won’t be known for a while, and the eventual result – barring a Lib landslide, is almost random.
There is a low threshold to getting elected and there are several minor party and independents – both from the left and right who as a result of preferences might get across the line.
There was a member of “A better future for our children” party elected a while ago, purely because both Lab and Libs – presumably liking the idea of a better future for our children/animals/apple pie/whatever , sounded harmless.
To Scott saying that many crackpots will be elected, that only happens when it is a surprise win. Ie the party doesn’t care who nominates for some safe opposition seat because they are not going to win. Then all of a sudden there is a massive swing and someone is ‘accidently’ elected.
That wont happen here. It has been clear for years that a thumping is coming, no seat has been considered impossible for the Libs (althought there are a dozen or so that are considered highly likely Labor).
Lets say we all wake up on Sunday with a Labor win (Ha!), or even a narrow Liberal win. That would result in a whole bunch of surprise/accidental (from the party machine view) elected ALP MP’s – some of whom may well fit the category of crackpots).
Crackpots are always elected. Often in the safest of seats!
TT @ 60
The Canadian Progressive Conservatives did go down to 2 seats – losing seats to the Canadian Liberals, Bloc Quebecois but most importantly they lost their Western heartland to the Reform party. I think the PCs got back to 12 seats before being swallowed by Reform – the new entity being rebadged Conservative. It sort of is, but is sort of not a descendant of the previous entity.
If it is as bad as it quite could be, Labor will be severly injured but they will not be dead. A lot of the heartland will come back in 4 years. The big question will be what will Labor learn (both in NSW and federally) from a rout? Will the Federal party have the cojones to intervene and clean the NSW party out?
How do we save ourselves being held to ransom by the *true* crackpots CDP/Shooters?
Should we urge towards a coalition majority since Labor isn’t going anywhere??
I agree the will be some crackpots on the Lib Nats side, not because they didn’t think they would win, but because they were carefully preselected by the Lib/Nat party machines.
Having said that, I think that apart from socially conservative changes like closing the safe injecting room and stopping the Ethics classes in schools, there won’t be many changes.
If anything they will be overcautious – not wanting to be oncers.
[I don’t even expect Nathan Rees, David Borger and Andrew McDonald will survive the weekend annihilation]
Evan I am hoping like hell that you are wrong on that! They will be the core of a Party move back to something resembling what the Labor Party used to be!
My big fear is that some in the ALP will not learn a thing from a massive defeat and will still appoint relatives friends and hangers on to any jobs available.
This morning I got a call from an elderly neighbour life long Labor voter and long time Labor Party member but not for quite a while. She has prepolled and told me she couldn’t bring herself not to vote Labor in the Lower House but voted John Hatton’s ticket in the Upper House. The fact that a life long Labor voter had to force herself to vote ALP in the Lower House tells you something and she isn’t the only one I know doing that.
A friend in the Hunter region has sent a few emails this morning saying a group of them are toying with the idea of forming an organisation of Party members to fight back against those who have brought us to this point. He has already registered two domain names and they are talking of organising a public meeting.
I have emailed him asking if I can give details on here and will wait for his reply.
At least Roozendaal will be gone in a few months! His parliamentary pension becomes due then and that is the reason he is No 1 on the Upper House ticket not that he is self indulgent at all!
My elderly neighbout got a mechanised call from Barry O’Farrell this morning and I got one from Bob Hawke that dropped out before it was finished – symptomatic of the whole Party at the moment I would have thought! We are in East Hills.
[Will the Federal party have the cojones to intervene and clean the NSW party out?]
Perhaps they could invite Arbib and his cohorts to do that perhaps!
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/25/nsw-election-labor-may-field-a-team-but-no-12th-man/
William on Crikey this arvo!
Hi people, I’m a mate of “mytwobobsworth” and from the Hunter. We are fed up to the back teeth with the NSW Branch and we are forming a Reform movement in the Hunter.
I am aware of a “members” meeting to be held on Saturday 2nd April 2011 to set up a grass roots movement in the inner west of Sydney. I will be able to post the details soon.
I am in the Swansea electorate and our candidate, Robert Coombs, is doing very well. I have got to know Robert over the last 4 years. He is hard working and a good local member. He has had enough of the factional system and is committed to reform. The Lib is running dead. We are doing well here and I expect Robert to retain the seat.
Charlestown – Matthew Morris will be defeated (I hope) thus ending the Morris dynasty. He has been an unseen member living in Sydney most of the time. The old boy has been upset with him for a while. Not a great loss.
Maitland – the Lib Robyn Parker will win this – a good operator and not a redneck fascist.
Newcastle – Jodi Mackay is a very good campaigner and Independent and Mayor of Newcastle John Tate is on the nose. Should be close.
Wallsend – Labor to retain but a very lacklustre member is Sonia – wont contriburte much to the Reform that is needed and just a “seat warmer”.
Lake Macquarie – Independent Greg Piper will retain easily. A good local member and respected in the community. I wish Labor had good candidates like this? The Labor candidate Mariani has been appalling in his personal attacks on Piper and they haven’t gone down at all.
Cessnock – this one is interesting. ALP candidate has done very well. Hard one as the Nats have the Mayor running and even though she is in her 70’s she will proberly take this.
jarama
Sertse
Too late, ALP have been giving a lot of freebies to the Shooters for the last 4 years to get legislations through
This is from an old mate who has been a party activist for nearly 35 years. Its a goiod take on how Labor supporters and members can look at the advancing Tsunami of defeat:
“I awoke this morning and it occured to me that tomorrow I will be very grateful to the electors for leaving Labor, in order that we can reclaim Labour. They are doing us and themselves a big favour, and you know, I think people know that.
You can’t make an omlette without breaking an egg, and the HO eggs need breaking !
So, comrades, tomorrow, be happy! Smile and greet voters with a big thank you!
Be proud, be grateful at the opportunity our friends and neighbours are giving us and themselves to fix this mess.
It’s OK, we can do “a season or two in the wilderness”. Labour people can do that.
We’ve done it before and we are about to do it again.
But what an opportunity it presents for representative democracy for branch members and supporters, to start again! It feels like 1890 all over again!
There is a light on the hill, and it burns bright for participative democracy.
It is not the light of back room plotters, spivs and hacks; their’s is the dark light of self interest.
Come, let’s reform this great movement….”
jarama
Tomboy @ 40
[I was particularly affronted by the attempt to smear Dai Le . . . Nobody has gone to the gutter with regards to Nick, by accusing him of association with Captain Dragan.]
I’ll give it a go:
Nick Lalich is Phuong Ngo’s best mate – he’d do anything for Phuong.
[But Ngo’s close friend and political ally, Nick Lalich, who succeeded Meagher as Cabramatta MP at a by-election last month, was also counting on Ngo’s support. Ngo split his votes between Meagher and Lalich but in such a way that Meagher would defeat (by just two votes, as it turned out) another contender: the Newman ally Ken Chapman.
“A win’s a win,” Meagher said.
APPARENTLY the first to point the finger at Ngo for the Newman assassination, Chapman was forced from the Labor Party in 1995 after pressure from colleagues not to give evidence against Ngo.]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/that-one-day-in-september/2008/11/14/1226318927537.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Gusface @ 51
[KK is secretly campaigning for the next election . . .]
. . . in Ohio.
“Will the Federal party have the cojones to intervene and clean the NSW party out?”
Perhaps you should be asking, will the people who use to control the NSW party, eventually clean the federal party out as well?
Focus groups, poll driven and replaceable PM?
Some great comments here!
I’ll be back in a few hours with some last minute goss.
[. . . in Ohio.]
if she wears red shoes, we know it aint kansas
[Perhaps they could invite Arbib and his cohorts to do that perhaps!]
Invite? They should be insisting. They can start by disendorsing him and letting him go when his term expires.
Kudos to socrates. We may share some reminisces from Budget Estimates tomorrow night.
Frankie V – that is gold on the Meagher preselection. I suspect you are having a dash of schadenfreude in your Ouzo tomorrow night? With Arbib out the door, Federal ALP intervention in the NSW ALP becomes imperative for Gillard to survive in 2014.
Good form with the TISM link yesterday too! You might have warned us though – I was in a Public Library. The HSC kids got a musical education.
I’ve always wondered why nobody did a slideshow of Kristina to the Gillian Welch song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NPEj63d0jY
Sorry, I meant Karl Bitar, not Mark Arbib. Word is Bitar will be replaced by a Queenslander. Dark days ahead for public ownership. Roll on public squalor.
I thought Bitar’s replacement had already been announced?
Yeah it has, I’m just being a slack bastard on a Friday afternoon who’s knocked off for the weekend. And what a weekend it will be.
The ALP has at least two votes in North Sydney: shellbell and Thomas Keneally OA.
Heard Bruce Baird dismiss the “cricket team” theory for the Labor party on Sat. Said they’d get “much more.” Any thoughts folks?
THiS LiNK iS SAFE FOR WORK
How does one find out what the final LC ballot looks like and what it means?
Pritam Sekhon: Go to: http://candidates.elections.nsw.gov.au/default.aspx
Group C is led by former Ind MP John Hatton, and Group contains former One Nation Pauline Hanson.
Click on each group for more details
Something to watch out for on Saturday Night….
Will the CDP outpoll the ALP in any seat?
Eddie – I am splitting the ALP lower North Shore vote by voting in Willoughby
Two votes for the ALP on the north shore is two more than they deserve from around here. Royal North Shore has great staff but is held together by sticky tape and string and the Spit Bridge is a joke.
Sorry for the OT post but great TISM. I remember seeing this on rage and almost wet myself…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiHdpAVIHgo
eddieward
I still have the poster advertising the May 1998 Sydney TISM gig I took from a shop window opposite the Cat and Fiddle hotel in Balmain if you interested let me know as I would like to see it go to a real fan..
Well Baird would say that wouldn’t he – trying to preempt any late surge of a sympathy vote for the ALP. Graeme Richardson was suggesting the ALP would get 18 seats. perhpas an AFL team rather than a cricket team?
There is a candidate on the Green’s web page who looks like Mandrake the Magician. Does anyone know who he is and does he do private parties?
OC
In which seat is Mandrake doing his magic?
Time for the Blackburnpseph Predictions
Seats that I think Labor Will Win:
Auburn, Bankstown, Blacktown, Canterbury, Fairfield, Granville, Heffron, Lakemba, Liverpool, Macquarie Fields, Mount Druitt, Shellharbour, Smithfield, Toongabbie, Wallsend (15)
ALP seats that I can’t pick – it will be down to handfuls of votes:
Cabramatta, Keira, Marrickville
ALP to lose Charlestown (to Lib or Ind – not sure), Balmain (to Lib or Green – not sure).
Independents to win Northern Tablelands, Lake Macquarie, Blue Mountains, Newcastle, Wollongong. Possible loss of Clover Moore to Libs in Sydney could be the Boilover of the night. Inds to lose Dubbo, Port Macquarie, Tamworth
In Summary:
Libs/ Nats 66-71
ALP 15 – 18
Inds 6 – 8
Greens 0 -2
Labor desperation in Kogarah: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/25/3174092.htm?site=sydney
[Cherie Burton says she too has been the victim, accusing the Liberals of releasing details of her past driving indiscretions.]
You mean the things you actually did Cherie – and then lied about – and then threatened to purger yourself in court by taking legal action against those reporting the truth?
My brother in law has worked as a gardener at Royal north shore for the 18 years. The place is falling to bits whilst the private hospital run by Ramsey flourishes.You could not seriously vote Labor in North Sydney oor Willoughby if you cared about health the Government has totally ignored it, transport and Education in the area. The schools at Infants and Primary level are bulging as there has been no planning in that respect for twenty years.
The best thing about this election will be watching ICAC go into gear over the next twleve months because quite a few or our esteemed machine folk will be getting some free accomodation. When you work in the property industry like I do the stuff that has gone on there is totally out of control and carpetbaggers have run the joint particularly after Carr left office. Kenneally was in the thick of it as planning minister devleopers just knew they could get those extra few floors above FSR when they needed just a little bit of wedge here and there and it wasnt just happening in Wollongong but everywhere.
The guys I deal with from the indigenous land councils have just gotten totally sick of all the crooks running around trying to pick up their indigenous land titled sites for a song and get the rezones from the ALP mates.
ICAC fun re
Barrangaroo,
Catherine Hill Bay
Currawong,
and literally dozens more
The spiders and snakes are going to all come oozing of the box and there will be plenty of media coverage when it happens which will have the effect of “Guaranteeing” the Liberals two terms. They will have to watch the Nationals on the coastal areas though as they cannot help themselves when it comnes to land deals and special rezonings.
I look forward to negating Shellbells Labor vote in willoughby tomorrow very early art Willoughby Park. Mind you Labor will be luck to get 15% of the primary in Willoughby and Gladys is one of the best Barry has.