Morgan phone poll: 54-46 to Coalition

For the third week in a row Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll, which have had appropriately erratic results. All three have had the Coalition in front: by 56-44 on March 8-10, 51-49 on March 16-17 and now 54-46 on March 22-24 (as always, the caveat must be added that I am using the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure, rather than “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” as highlighted by Morgan). The latest result has Labor’s primary vote down only a point to 34.5 per cent – not so different from Newspoll – but lower results for the non-major parties have pushed the Coalition from 42.5 per cent to 47 per cent. The Greens are down two to 10 per cent. The poll had a sample of 542 and a margin of error of a bit under 4.5 per cent.

Respondents were also asked the rather odd question of who out of Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull “would best represent Australia internationally”. Kevin Rudd led on 35 per cent, with Gillard on 21 per cent, Abbott on 19 per cent and Turnbull on 17 per cent. Curiously, the “good” poll for Labor last week had much fewer respondents thinking they would win the next election (30.5 per cent to 57 per cent for the Coalition) compared with the two worse results on either side (37-54 and 37-52.5).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe