Morgan phone poll: 54-46 to Coalition

For the third week in a row Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll, which have had appropriately erratic results. All three have had the Coalition in front: by 56-44 on March 8-10, 51-49 on March 16-17 and now 54-46 on March 22-24 (as always, the caveat must be added that I am using the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure, rather than “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” as highlighted by Morgan). The latest result has Labor’s primary vote down only a point to 34.5 per cent – not so different from Newspoll – but lower results for the non-major parties have pushed the Coalition from 42.5 per cent to 47 per cent. The Greens are down two to 10 per cent. The poll had a sample of 542 and a margin of error of a bit under 4.5 per cent.

Respondents were also asked the rather odd question of who out of Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull “would best represent Australia internationally”. Kevin Rudd led on 35 per cent, with Gillard on 21 per cent, Abbott on 19 per cent and Turnbull on 17 per cent. Curiously, the “good” poll for Labor last week had much fewer respondents thinking they would win the next election (30.5 per cent to 57 per cent for the Coalition) compared with the two worse results on either side (37-54 and 37-52.5).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,454 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 29 of 30
1 … 28 29 30

  6. [victoria
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    b-g

    Labor are improving in the polls, but support for the carbon tax is diminishing. How does that translate?!]

    A Labor-Green widening about what climate action means. Greens might no support this particualr approach and Gillard suggesting that they are extreme is also part of it.

  7. Victoria

    Probably because it’s being framed as an economic reform rather than an environmental one.

    That’s the only explanation I can come up with

  11. b-g

    I think the Green supporters better realise that in the real world, there needs to be compromise. Otherwise, nothing at all is the alternative.

  12. Not sure when Barnaby said this

    [LATIKAMBOURKE | 25 seconds ago
    Barnaby Joyce just claimed fed debt is $183,801 billion but has just had to clarify ‘Gross debt is $183.801 billion not $183,801 billion.’]

  14. Groucho Marx.
    [“I find television very educating. Every time somebody turns on the set, I go into the other room and read a book.”]

  17. [The decline in support for the carbon price is amazingly being driven by the Greens.

    Support 56 (-22) Oppose 23 (+12)

    I can’t believe it either!]

    Simply unbelievable.

    Labor voters support the CT more than Green voters (63 v. 56). All the more strange because, as mentioned above, the CT itself is a concession to the Greens!

    I’m starting to think Essential could have been somehow nobbled by trolls, or fake participants. It’s definitely been a bit wafty lately.

  19. Even Poss agrees with us!

    [POLLYTICS | 56 seconds ago
    Shorter Dennis Jensen :NBN will burn your house down and kill you! Getting sillier by the minute]

  20. [How do these coalition MP’s keep a straight face when they talk garbage?]
    vic
    In Jensen’s case I think he actually believes it.

    And our friend Pyne just got dragged to the dispatch box and told exactly how to withdraw an unparliamentary comment.

    Prat!

  22. [A Labor-Green widening about what climate action means. Greens might no support this particualr approach and Gillard suggesting that they are extreme is also part of it.]

    Surely they’re not that precious that a little dig at them causes them to spit the dummy?

    This has been the week where they’ve been lampooned ferociously by the Opposition crowd, and bad mouthed so badly at the shock jock rally that Brown felt he had to apologize to Gillard for some of the signs.

    VERY strange.

  23. Victoria
    [How do these coalition MP’s keep a straight face when they talk garbage?]

    Lots and lots of practice 😀

  25. I thought I’d actually come across a technologically savvy member of the dinosaur coalition when Dr Jensen pointed out Labor’s repeated error about the speed of light (i.e., that fibre is best because nothing travels faster than light) by saying that all electromagnetic radiation travels at the speed of light (so wireless also operates at the speed of light). But he blew it by saying that electricity also travels at the speed of light. On Labor’s argument, it’s not the speed of transmission in a fibre that makes it superior, it’s the density of data that it carries and that it operates unaffected by other users or interference.

  26. [ latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Barnaby Joyce just claimed fed debt is $183,801 billion but has just had to clarify ‘Gross debt is $183.801 billion not $183,801 billion.’
    ]

    [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    Barnaby proves again, that the Liberals cannot be trusted with budget numbers.
    ]

  27. [Dr Jensen pointed out Labor’s repeated error about the speed of light (i.e., that fibre is best because nothing travels faster than light) by saying that all electromagnetic radiation travels at the speed of light (so wireless also operates at the speed of light). ]

    This is the NBN equivalent of the “CO2 is always good for you” CC denier argument.

  29. The reason for the Green attitude to the CT will remain unknown at this stage. Perhaps they were just having a bad day. Need a couple more poll weeks to see if it is just a hicup or not.

    However, it hasn’t done the labor cause any harm. PV up again and support for the CT among labor voters strengthing.

    Secure your own base first and from these figures it can be assumed that the CT is a positive with labors core voters.

  30. Jensen bleats to all and sundry about having to come bact today and disappoint his son, as it is his birthday.

    1. Blame your Liberal colleagues for wasting the time at both levels of parliament.
    2. Don’t waste taxpayer dollars while you are doing it.
    3. Don’t imply it is the government’s fault.
    4. Don’t lie to your son about who is responsible.
    5. Don’t waste parliaments time with the greatest dribble I have heard in parliament.

  32. I think Turnbull’s amendment is to guarantee equal pricing for the three delivery technologies – fibre, wireless and satellite – at all speeds. They tried this in the Senate, but Senator X pointed out its flaw. Unless there are conditions attached it means that if one of the technologies becomes faster but is expensive, then to have equal pricing the other technologies would have to be set at the same high price for that speed, so rather than bringing prices of expensive delivery down, it would push up prices of cheaper delivery. If Pyne is right, Windsor and Oakeshott are intending to support it and are presently having their arms twisted.

  34. [Jensen bleats to all and sundry about having to come bact today and disappoint his son, as it is his birthday.]

    This attitude is unbelievable. They were elected to parliament. That’s their job. They’re supposed to be there. There are only 17 scheduled sitting weeks this year.

  36. [Jensen bleats to all and sundry about having to come bact today and disappoint his son, as it is his birthday.

    This attitude is unbelievable. They were elected to parliament. That’s their job. They’re supposed to be there. There are only 17 scheduled sitting weeks this year.]

    And they want to foist WorkNOChoices onto the rest of the population. 😡

  38. [does that translate?!

    A Labor-Green widening about what climate action means. Greens might no support this particualr approach and Gillard suggesting that they are extreme is also part of it.]

    for instance do we know how many greens where actually ask,
    as this is a random computer poll who know there may of been 2 of them 4 of them
    essential send this out at random ,
    so next time you may get 50 greens and 20 liberals ect

  40. [Jensen bleats to all and sundry about having to come bact today and disappoint his son, as it is his birthday.]

    most of the time all of us work on our children birthdays,

  43. how old was he when he came to aust.

    I know a South . af. who still goes on about having people do all the work for them when they had the good old days in thier country,

    had never mowed a lawn till they came here, didnt know how to start the mower
    and locked all the gates at bed time, we use to have good laugh

  44. my say,

    This is self-inflicted. If they hadn’t played silly buggers in the Senate they could all be at home.

  47. [The decline in support for the carbon price is amazingly being driven by the Greens. ]

    I reckon that’s because in their objections to the CPRS, they over egged the omelette by such a degree in their demonising of compensation and the illogical insistance of the 40% reduction figure.

    Their supporters became convinced that “that” was the only alternative and that anything less was inconceivable and not worth even considering, let alone even a moserate fall back position to see that the process can at least get started and further modifications be introduced as circumstances and the movements in the economy permit.

    Politics overtook common sense and logic. They are now reaping the fruit of that. There is only a heartbeat between even getting an ETS up and the potential of years and years of dangerous delay to the detriment of both the ecology & economy.

    The Greens should be condemned for not alowing the CPRS through when it was clearly able to get through and the Labor Government was strong enough to permit it to develope to suit prevailing conditions.

  49. bg,

    It’s 2.5 years and that extension is to increase the coverage to 93% of homes rather than 90% originally planned.

    they can try and make hay out of it, but I reckon all they’ll get is compost, as usual.

  50. @1441

    I did a double-take until I looked at the actual figure of 2.5 years in the article, not a delay of 25 years as the headline says.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 29 of 30
1 … 28 29 30