GhostWhoVotes reports the final pre-election Newspoll provides yet more evidence that the campaign hasn’t changed a thing: the Coalition primary vote is at 50 per cent (unchanged on the last Newspoll), Labor is on 23 per cent (down three) and the Greens are on 12 per cent (up one). The two-party preferred result is 64-36, compared with 63-37 in the previous Newspoll. Kristina Keneally’s approval is down a point to 33 per cent, and her disapproval up one to 59 per cent; Barry O’Farrell is down a point on approval to 48 per cent and up two on disapproval to 39 per cent. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is up from 48-35 to 48-32. More to follow, hopefully (metro and non-metro breakdowns in particular would be appreciated).
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes reveal nothing new. We will no doubt be hearing more from The Australian tomorrow.
UPDATE 2: It seems for every poll showing Labor getting away with 63-37 or 64-36, another has come along showing it at 66-34. Step forward Galaxy, which has Labor at 22 per cent of the primary vote (down one on three weeks ago), the Coalition at 51 per cent (steady) and the Greens at 12 per cent (down two). The poll was roughly Newspoll-sized, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1000 with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Barry O’Farrell leads as preferred premier 53-33 – 20 points compared with Newspoll’s 16. The poll 53 per cent favouring Kristina Keneally as leader over John Robertson (13 per cent) and Michael Daley (11 per cent).
Well our Mayor will be on Fred Nile’s ticket for about the 4th election in a row.
Plus it looks like our table top undies dancer Labor MP will get done by an albino Liberal
vera:
Are you poised for tomorrow, and an O’Farrell govt?
Re Newcastle
There seem to be a fair few ill informed comments from those nor connected to the region in this blog.
Tates biggest asset is not that he is not Jodi McKay. It’s actually his weakness folks here are looking at him and saying if we blame the labor member for not getting enough done in 4 years what do we say about the mayor who has been loitering and ineffectual for 20?
Tate will likely run 4th maybe 3rd in a 4 way horse race. He had his best shot last time when things were far more in his favor – a lib running dead and an independent ex member splitting the left vote.
Word is that whilst the greens have not prefd McKay many local greens do not agree and will be promoting a 2 for labor tomorrow.
It’s close between lib and labor ( libs have run a good campaign here btw) greens are outside chance Tate is nowhere and will go on to lose the mayoralty at next council election.
We’ve also seen the emergence of a sinister astroturfing group in the form of fedup.org.au backed by the equally opaque Newcastle Alliance (sic business lobby front) in the last few weeks.
[Well our Mayor will be on Fred Nile’s ticket for about the 4th election in a row.
Plus it looks like our table top undies dancer Labor MP will get done by an albino Liberal]
sounds like the Da Vinci code
eddie, I’ve examined them under the microscope, looked at them through binoculars and hell, even looked at the furthest ones through a telescope but can only come up with the fourteen Labor seats.
Campbelltown
Fairfield
Keira
Blacktown
Heffron
Woollongong
Mount Druitt
Bankstown
Shellharbour
Liverpool
Canterbury
Auburn
Cabramatta
Lakemba
Yeah fessions, I’m ready!
These lib Premiers are a boring old lot but, Big Ted and Big Bazza, lord help us 😉
[Sir Gus of the Whitehouse boldly predicted that the ALP would win 100 seats at the last Federal poll.
And we all know what happened there.]
…what was the classic line from the other day? Something like:
“Any idiot can predict a Liberal victory on Sat but it takes a very special type of idiot to predict an ALP victory!” 😉
[Sir Gus of the Whitehouse boldly predicted that the ALP would win 100 seats at the last Federal poll.]
is beedle about?
Gus
How you going old son?
jedi code much better 🙂
OK, as promised by 10pm, eddieward’s call of the board predictor for tomorrow night:
Albury (Lib retain)
Auburn (ALP retain)
Ballina (NAT retain)
Balmain (Lib gain)
Bankstown (ALP retain) But will look good for the Libs tomorrow night.
Barwon (Nat retain)
Bathurst (Nat gain)
Baulkham Hills (Lib retain)
Bega (Lib retain)
Blacktown (ALP retain)
Blue Mountains STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Burrinjuck (Nat retain)
Cabramatta (ALP retain)
Camden (Lib gain)
Campbelltown (Lib gain)
Canterbury (ALP retain)
Castle Hill (Lib retain)
Cessnock (Nat gain)
Charlestown (Lib gain)
Clarence (Nat retain)
Coffs Harbour (Nat retain)
Coogee (ALP retain) On green preferences, Pearcey will have to grow his ponytail back.
Cronulla (Lib retain)
Davidson (Lib retain)
Drummoyne (Lib gain)
East Hills (Lib gain)
Dubbo (Nat gain)
Epping (Lib retain)
Fairfield (ALP retain)
Gosford (Lib gain)
Goulburn (Lib retain)
Granville (ALP retain)
Hawkesbury (Lib retain)
Heathcote (Lib gain)
Heffron (ALP retain) The Greens should come second here
Hornsby (Lib retain)
Keira (Lib gain)
Kiama (Lib gain)
Kogarah (Lib gain)
Ku-ring-gai (Lib retain)
Lake Macquarie (Ind retain)
Lakemba (ALP retain)
Lane Cove (Lib retain)
Lismore (Nat retain)
Liverpool (ALP retain)
Londonderry (Lib gain)
Macquarie Fields (ALP retain)
Maitland (Lib gain)
Manly (Lib retain)
Maroubra (ALP retain)
Marrickville (ALP retain)
Menai (Lib gain)
Miranda (Lib gain)
Monaro (ALP retain)
Mount Druitt (ALP retain)
Mulgoa (Lib gain)
Murray-Darling (Nat retain)
Murrumbidgee (Nat retain)
Myall Lakes (Nat retain)
Newcastle (Ind gain)
North Shore (Lib retain)
Northern Tablelands (Ind retain)
Oatley (Lib gain)
Orange (Nat retain)
Oxley (Nat retain)
Parramatta (Lib gain)
Penrith (Lib retain)
Pittwater (Lib retain)
Port Macquarie (Ind retain)
Port Stephens (Lib retain)
Riverstone (Lib gain)
Rockdale (ALP retain)
Ryde (Lib retain)
Shellharbour (ALP retain)
South Coast (Lib retain)
Smithfield (Lib gain) A sad day for democracy.
Strathfield (Teeth retain)
Swansea (ALP retain)
Sydney (Ind retain)
Tamworth (Nat gain)
Terrigal (Lib retain)
The Entrance (Lib gain)
Toongabbie (ALP retain)
Tweed (Nat retain)
Upper Hunter (Nat retain) just
Vaucluse (Lib retain)
Wakehurst (Lib retain)
Wagga Wagga (Lib retain)
Wallsend (ALP retain) but will be closer than two dogs rooting
Willoughby (Lib retain)
Wollondilly (Lib gain)
Wollongong (Ind gain)
Wyong (Lib gain)
Now, to the real action, the Lunching Council:
My predictions are
Libs: 10
ALP: 5
Greens: 2
Hatton: 1
Fred: 1
Shooterers: 1
Hanson: 1
Gordon Moyes (Family Fist) might get up, and that will be at the expense of either Fred (unlikely) or the Coalition (more likely).
[Sir Gus of the Whitehouse boldly predicted that the ALP would win 100 seats at the last Federal poll.]
based on polling showing a consistent 57.5 to labor
fool me to believe the polls
👿
vera:
I know nothing about O’Farrell.
If he’s anything like Baillieu he’ll send the cops out to do toilet runs for transit guards and cough up one election backflip after another.
[Hanson: 1]
correct if you mean number of votes
incorrect if you mean number of seats
(IMO anyway!)
[based on polling showing a consistent 57.5 to labor
fool me to believe the polls]
…consistently until Rudd followed Julia’s advice and dumped climate change action.
eddie
your breaking my heart again
🙁
mod
my prediction was for 2007
do keep up
[Gusface
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:06 pm | Permalink
Sir Gus of the Whitehouse boldly predicted that the ALP would win 100 seats at the last Federal poll.
based on polling showing a consistent 57.5 to labor
fool me to believe the polls
]
No Gus,
You said 100 a mere 24 hours proor to the poll on the phone 🙂
Confessions
Are you in Victoria?
No fun at the polling booth for you tomorrow then 😉
Mod Lib, Bogans love her. There are a lot of bogans. Get drunk at the Colyton Hotel and you will know what I mean.
[Gusface
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:08 pm | Permalink
mod
my prediction was for 2007
do keep up]
100 seat prediction for 2007 better than 100 seat prediction for 2010….but still dumb!
Mod Lib (nice shoes btw!) that will be Arbib pushing the climate change inaction I’ll think you’ll find.
Julia hasn’t has an original idea since she walked out on the ALP Left Caucus at AUS in 1983. If you want to understand modern Australian politics, study the collapse of AUS in the early eighties.
At least we got real Kristina in this campaign. Be yourself is the worst advice you can give some people.
[eddieward
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:09 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib, Bogans love her. There are a lot of bogans. Get drunk at the Colyton Hotel and you will know what I mean]
I reckon there is no better prediciton of behaviour than past behaviour. Yes she gets a lot of attention and the media salivate at her every stammered word, but she has NEVER been elected ANYWHERE in Australia (apart from 1996 when she had “Lib” next to her name on the ballot as her disendorsement was too close to polling day). She needs practically nothing to get in, and anyone else with her exposure would get it, but she wont.
Lets see whose right!
Newspoll Final NSW
2 Party Preferred: ALP 35.9 LNP 64.1
Primary Votes: ALP 23 LNP 50 GRN 12
Keneally: Approval 32 Disapproval 60
O’Farrell: Approval 48 Disapproval 39
Preferred Premier: Keneally 32 O’Farrell 48
Mod Lib, she can get up with about 100,000 votes statewide, that’s about 1100 votes per seat. No big ask.
GhostWhoVotes #Newspoll Final NSW 2 Party Preferred: ALP 35.9 LNP 64.1 #nswvotes #auspol 5 minutes ago via web
So the final Newspoll could see Labor winning 15 seats tops.
The Newspoll survey was of 1488 voters.
One in five people in NSW think neither leader is legitimate. That’s a good base to work from.
@confessions
The acheivments of Big Ted will be a model for NSW, no new legislation since November, promise pay rises for teachers, social service workers then go back on that and offer 2.5 per cent…still trying to think of any actual policy…
No doubt NSW will get the rest is the standard lib talking points…..review budet proposals/contracts (stop the waste)….financial situation is far worse than prev govt said…(stop the debt)…those damn public servants, all biased labor puppets…(stop the mates)
Eddie
i like your thinking
I stands by my predictions.
One seat we will know tomorrow night is Strathfield, where Virginia Judge is running foir the Teeth Party. If she gets up, Borger, McDonald, Robbo, Pearcey and Whan are all fine.
Mod Lib
Parkes might just pull it off for Pauline 😆
http://www.parkeschampionpost.com.au/news/local/news/general/pauline-is-on-the-road-again/2114198.aspx
Tebbut people in Newtown report friendly disinterest (as opposed to vitriolic abuse) over the last week.
Where is the diary of the ABC Reporter with KK ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/25/3174197.htm?section=justin
If Judge loses Strathfield we are talking cricket team. And the sort of cricket team I used to play for, where you’re madly smsing people from first slip to make up the numbers at a quarter past play.
eddie
aamoi
not one report of baseball bats here on the CC
pubpoll was about 50/50
the shy labor effect?
[Sir Humphrey
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:17 pm | Permalink
@confessions
The acheivments of Big Ted will be a model for NSW, no new legislation since November, promise pay rises for teachers, social service workers then go back on that and offer 2.5 per cent…still trying to think of any actual policy…
No doubt NSW will get the rest is the standard lib talking points…..review budet proposals/contracts (stop the waste)….financial situation is far worse than prev govt said…(stop the debt)…those damn public servants, all biased labor puppets…(stop the mates)
]
with a liberal dose of Colin Barnett State s Rights chest beating to boot.
eddie I’d love to see the result you predict but as a general rule polling is just so good these days that 14 or 15 does look to be it.
Re: Hanson. I pick her to get up. What people forget – and Pauline herself forgot when she ran for Blair in 1998 – was that her base was blue collar and low-income voters who are actually often LABOR voters. In 2003, the Labor government was popular. Now, they’re very unpopular, she’s got a lot more base to draw from.
Also, there’s nothing in her official platform anyone coudl really be THAT offended by, there’s not so much stigma about voting for her as people have kind of softened in the last few years (a few unfortunate utterances from her aside) and her biggest issue is that Hatton will pick up lots of her votes.
[eddieward
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib, she can get up with about 100,000 votes statewide, that’s about 1100 votes per seat. No big ask.]
What percent do you need for a senate seat? I dont know but she only got 1.9% in 2003 well within her 15 minutes of fame. That time is up as far as I can see and I would be surprised if she got into the “single digit” this time around
(I certainly know which single digit I would give her)
[Unlike a lot of regional media the Mercury is read, but even more so, WIN is watched. Can some of our eyes and ears in the ‘gong feed us on how the Hay v Bradbery stoush is visioning locally, going forward?]
Eddie,
Your gallows humour has been brilliant.
Tonight’s WIN News mercifully ignored Hay and Bradbery because KK was shown campaigning here and charming Gongians on the Free Shuttle Bus as well as copping a bollocking from local (anti-free bus) taxi drivers, which went just a whisker away from what’s now known as “Carbon Tax Rally” parlance.
The only local pollies WIN did put to air were Keira’s Park (ALP) v Dorahy (Lib) because savvy union leader, Arthur Rorris, Sec. of the So. Coast Labour Council, set a trap for Dorahy. SCLC conjured up a pledge of motherhood statements that the candidates were asked to sign—of course, Dorahy was the lone Keira hopeful who didn’t sign it. Don’t expect this will carry any weight at all with voters since your comment about irate rail commuters applies the strongest in Keira’s northern burbs. Btw, Keira’s departing MLA, David Campbell has continued to campaign as assiduously and visibly (at pre-poll centre) as if he were still on the ballot. It shows he’s still got some ticker.
I’ve already posted the relevant Mercury Editorial recommending a vote for Indie candidate Bradbery, which is the “climax” to the Editors’ year long love-affair with the Crown St. Mall Pastor, who (as William Bowe has written today) can have zilch impact when a government has a huge majority. For PBer’s who’ve never clapped eyes on The Mercury, think “Citizen Kane” to get a fair idea of how egregious their propaganda campaign was.
The Mercury’s secondary propaganda front throughout 2010-11 was that any time Kiama’s Matt Brown name was mentioned, it was followed by a paragraph about the alleged underpants party and couch-trip with Noreen Hay. Their cartoonist always depicted him in undies. Brown’s denials were so demeaning and his downfall so humiliating that I seriously hope the former Kiama High School Captain’s emotional stability is stronger than John Brogden’s was.
KK’s been avoiding ABC. Unavailable for News Radio this week. Mark Tobin (a bright lad) filed a good report on PM this evening that featured Kristina.
If I was Walt Secord I’d screw the ABC and concentrate on WS-FM and the Kyle Sandilands show, that’s where the votes are. 2GB and ABC listeners make up their own minds.
Is there a New South Welshman to compile the tips?
Labor 18 (just enough for Western Sydney to field an AFL team with no reserves)
Indie 6
Green 1
TPP 36-64
Eddie – so you are salivating at the prospect of O’Farrell ?
Do tell…
The other interesting spin is the glorification of one KK. She has lost votes for the ALP since taking the leadership, she has insulted the ALP members who left voluntarily saying that she pushed them out as deadwood, she will take the ALP to the worst election rout in history with the largest swing in history and she trails the lazy and impressively mediocre Barry on every personality trait (other than beating him on “arrogance”).
Yet she will be hailed as a Labor hero.
Long live spin eh?
steve, if polling is so good why can’t my local hospital get a GP?
edward o, spot on
Mod Lib, read edward o
Hanson can get elected on well less than a quota because of the exhaust factor, which few seem toi understand. As I posted a while back, votes in this election will exhaust like a public servant on a Friday afternoon. This means we will see people elected on well less than a quota in the Lunchiung Council, where it will come down to the last persons standing, and people elected in lower house seats on well less than 50 percent of the vote. Balmain will be a good example of this.
I love optional preferential voting, mainly because it shits party hacks to tears.
The Gong shuttle bus (the 55) is probably the best thing the ALP has ever given Wollongong! It’s pretty much packed constantly – try getting on at Wollongong Uni. I think Keira will hold.
vera:
No, not Vic. Just going off zoomster’s earlier comments about Ted’s election promise to put transit guards on every station (or something) has seen him have to organiuse Vic Police to do toilet stops for the guards – apparently not every Vic train station has toilets, you see.
I can envisage BOF facing similar dilemmas.
[vera
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:19 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
Parkes might just pull it off for Pauline]
…thankfully Parkes electors don’t get a senate seat all their own!!!
[confessions
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 10:30 pm | Permalink
vera:
No, not Vic. Just going off zoomster’s earlier comments about Ted’s election promise to put transit guards on every station (or something) has seen him have to organiuse Vic Police to do toilet stops for the guards – apparently not every Vic train station has toilets, you see.
I can envisage BOF facing similar dilemmas.
]
I think most, if not all NSW Stations are manned – unlike Vixc and WA.
Very few voters have any idea what O’Farrell has *promised*