Stuff and/or nonsense

Antony Green blogs on three developments in electoral and parliamentary reform so I don’t have to. To cut some long stories short:

• An all-party agreement to revert the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly to 35 members, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998, has fallen through after Opposition Leader Will Hodgman withdrew support in a riposte to government budget cuts.

• After flirting with a self-interested reversion to compulsory preferential voting, which was ditched in favour of the superior optional preferential model in 1992, the Queensland government has confirmed no such change will occur before the next election.

• The Australian Electoral Commission’s submission to the parliamentary inquiry into last year’s election has called for the federal parliament to follow the lead of New South Wales and Queensland in allowing enrolment to be updated automatically using data available from schools, utilities and such, thereby relieving voters of the bureaucratic annoyance that is currently required of them in discharge of their legal obligation. Antony Green also reports “rumours the Federal government plans to legislate on the matter”. Given the standard of discourse from some elements of the media in recent times, this could get interesting.

On a related note, British voters go to the polls on May 5 to decide whether to replace their archaic first-part-the-post electoral system with the manifestly superior “alternative vote”, or optional preferential voting as we know it in Australia. Antony Green has been working overtime lately responding to the avalanche of tosh being disseminated by the “no” campaign in its efforts to deceive the voters into making the wrong decision.

With no Morgan poll this week, here are some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.

• The Australian reports a poll conducted for the Nationals in the wake of the carbon tax announcement had 40 per cent of voters in Lyne taking a favourable view of Rob Oakeshott, against 52 per cent unfavourable. This is said to compare with a poll conducted before the 2008 by-election that brought him to federal parliament which had his approval rating at 71 per cent and disapproval at just 8 per cent.

• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports a Coalition poll conducted for the NSW election shows 62 per cent “firmly against” the government’s carbon tax proposal, with only 18 per cent in favour.

UPDATE (7/3/11): The first Essential Research poll taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent. Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.

Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,939 comments on “Stuff and/or nonsense”

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  9. Hockey in a trap of his own making. The Liberals steadfastly refuse to endorse quotas, yet here he is endorsing quotas for women on boards.

  11. She was born Gail Currer in South Africa. Currer attended the University of Cape Town[1] where she undertook an arts degree majoring in history and Latin as well as a Diploma of Education. She married Allan Kelly in December 1977.

  12. I noticed a while ago that Joe’s favourite words are: “From my perspective…” Already twice tonight. See if you can count them. Oh, another one.

  17. Thanks all re Gail Kelly.

    How can the Libs endorse legislating for quotas for women on corporate boards when they can’t even endorse quotas for women in Parliament! And why has nobody made that point!!

  18. Gweneth,

    I stand corrected. St Alphonso’s Pancake Breakfast follows on from Nanook Rubs It which I mistook for Don’t Eat The Yellow Snow.

    Nevertheless you’ve inspired me to dig out my copy of Apostrophe and give another blast.

    Jenauthor,

    Yep, those were the days. They don’t make music like that anymore.

    BTW The title track (Apostrophe – with Jack Bruce on bass) is one of my favourite instrunental tracks of all time.

    The sort sof stuff that gives eargasms. 😀

  24. [What happens to women board members when the Singapore takes over the ASX?]

    BW, sold to the Asian white slave trade?

  25. So now the coalition will get kudos for Joe’s quota brain snap. What’s the bet no journo makes the connection with the Libs’ own policy when it comes to positive discrimination amongst their own ranks.

  28. Finns
    Was about to patent ‘white slaves’ when there was a knock on the door. AFP. Must be reading poll bludger. Sooooo, that patent is a no go.

  32. Dee 2604
    Quite correct Dee Rudd was an excellent advocate for very positive policies particularly as the Liberal Government wad tired and riddled with Hubris hence their ridiculous work choices Act. Funnily enough Latham was quite active with positive alternatives .
    Beazley was relentlessly negative as was Crean
    An alternative Government in the early days has more chance of gaining government by being negative I.e by differentiating itself from the government. Turnbull and Nelson could not differentiate themselves from Labor and got very poor results after all people prefer the real thing so went with Rudd. Abbott by creating total differentiation through saying no all the time puts all the stress back on the government and if cracks appear then the public will go to the other side for solace,hence your 26 year old relative who does not appear to like the government much.
    Your point is well made and you certainly don’t have to justify yourself to me. This is an open forum and I believe invites manifold points of view I understand. It also appears that a number of regular PBers just wished us non Labor Green voters would rack off.
    I upset Newspoll 54% LNP to 46% based upon Essential today.

  34. Maybe NCTFA has cottoned on to my evil intentions and are doing some pre-emptive blocking. I’ll have to troll for other ways to throw a wet blanket on their party. Until then, thanks for the (interesting) welcome xxx

  37. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, March 7, 2011 at 9:43 pm | Permalink
    He cut and pasted a large chunk of the US constitution intotheirs and said socialism would not suit the Vietnamese as they were by nature traders.

    He had that right. I’ve been there a few times in recent years, and less likely candidates for communism I never did encounter.]

    I was having lunch with some Vietnamese people yesterday, and one (a doctor who had been a refugee 25yrs ago) said an interesting thing:

    Vietnam is capitalist and Australia is actually communist.

    In Vietnam if you work hard, and take risks and work yourself through the system you can become rich. Extraordinarily rich. Otherwise you will starve. Capitalist.

    In Australia if you are struggling you will be looked after and supported- no questions. If you work hard you can be comfortable. Communist.

    Interesting viewpoint!

  39. leaving the flame-haired Leigh up on her feet, weather and finance presenter style

    from Failed Estate. Wasn’t someone questioning why Leigh had to stand? She may be the lead anchor but she’s still a girl.

  40. [Vietnam is capitalist and Australia is actually communist.]

    Nothing new. Back in the 80s when China opened after the Ping Pong Diplomacy. One Comrade Minster from Beijing was visiting Australia. He made a comment publicly that Australia was the kind of “communistic” egalitarian society that the CCCP was trying to build.

  46. stanny @2682

    It also appears that a number of regular PBers just wished us non Labor Green voters would rack off.

    I sometimes get a bit tired of being lectured to by people who only seem to turn up when they think that Labor is in trouble and pick fights with people or seek to start fights, and then complain about the response they get.

    But I do like to play with those of other political persuasions – like most people here I suspect. You have made some salient points – no need to be so defensive. You come across as a little egregious yourself at times. Not sure if you mean to.

  48. Watching 4 Corners and weeping. It is democracy’s fundamental flaw that it must pander to the uneducated masses. A pox on those who seek to weaken public education.

  49. ML, Finns

    It has always been my view that what you point out is the core of the tragedy of Vietnam. They were always going to want to be independent of China. They were always going to want to make a buck.
    Had the US accepted Ho and worked at open door economic policies how different it would all have been.

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