Antony Green blogs on three developments in electoral and parliamentary reform so I don’t have to. To cut some long stories short:
• An all-party agreement to revert the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly to 35 members, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998, has fallen through after Opposition Leader Will Hodgman withdrew support in a riposte to government budget cuts.
• After flirting with a self-interested reversion to compulsory preferential voting, which was ditched in favour of the superior optional preferential model in 1992, the Queensland government has confirmed no such change will occur before the next election.
• The Australian Electoral Commission’s submission to the parliamentary inquiry into last year’s election has called for the federal parliament to follow the lead of New South Wales and Queensland in allowing enrolment to be updated automatically using data available from schools, utilities and such, thereby relieving voters of the bureaucratic annoyance that is currently required of them in discharge of their legal obligation. Antony Green also reports “rumours the Federal government plans to legislate on the matter”. Given the standard of discourse from some elements of the media in recent times, this could get interesting.
On a related note, British voters go to the polls on May 5 to decide whether to replace their archaic first-part-the-post electoral system with the manifestly superior “alternative vote”, or optional preferential voting as we know it in Australia. Antony Green has been working overtime lately responding to the avalanche of tosh being disseminated by the “no” campaign in its efforts to deceive the voters into making the wrong decision.
With no Morgan poll this week, here are some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.
• The Australian reports a poll conducted for the Nationals in the wake of the carbon tax announcement had 40 per cent of voters in Lyne taking a favourable view of Rob Oakeshott, against 52 per cent unfavourable. This is said to compare with a poll conducted before the 2008 by-election that brought him to federal parliament which had his approval rating at 71 per cent and disapproval at just 8 per cent.
• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports a Coalition poll conducted for the NSW election shows 62 per cent “firmly against” the government’s carbon tax proposal, with only 18 per cent in favour.
UPDATE (7/3/11): The first Essential Research poll taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent. Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.
Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.
stanny
I don’t think another couple of years of saying no is going to cut it with the public.
The cricket has Kenya v Canada.
has JA ever had kids?
[sspencer_63Stephen Spencer
The Aus hanging tight to this Newspoll. Usually on the web at 10, they appear to be keeping this for the print edition
46 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
BW, USA never understand about anything and anybody. They have their their own world series period. Ditto now with the Islamic world.
Comrade Joe
Jo just did from his perspective again.
Teddy Rooseveldt was Jo’s political hero.
Jo must like rough riders.
2 daughters + 1 son, says wiki.
Yeah, fancy Abbott getting a warm reception at a Liberal party function. Hold the front page.
Oh hang on – the ABC *did*.
Seriously, forget journalistic integrity and other high minded nonsense like that – where’s their &%*^$ dignity?
Whoever wrote that might as well be doing puff pieces on Pavlova for New Idea.
Finns
I wonder how long they will take to fix up Islam?
What is Sloppy going on about.
Serfchoice dont even give men equal pay.
[Jo must like rough riders.]
is that with teddy bears?
Frank
[The Aus hanging tight to this Newspoll. Usually on the web at 10, they appear to be keeping this for the print edition]
This could be ‘real’ bad!
Hmm 60-40 for LNP maybe
Gwenneth 2696
I am not trying to lecture anyone here just making a few points and expect some civility and thank you or yours.
I have checked out this site for ages but not bothered to post until recently. I don’t expect the government to just fall over by Abbott but I would like to see a much better leader than they have. Unlike the clown who shall remain nameless I don’t expect Abbott to lead the Libs t the next election unless there is an early one. I am no fan of Abbott whatever given he is way to conservative right wing for me I don’t like his refugeeolicy or Labors
[has JA ever had kids?]
I believe so.
Poor little tikes.
Opposition baying for some Navy blood on their fibs:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/smith-accountable-for-naval-shortfall/story-fn3dxity-1226017325511
I agree.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janet_Albrechtsen#Personal_life
Qanda is the Gail Kelly Show.
🙁
How is the fishing Dr John?
[
CUhlmann: Rumour mill rife with talk that Newspoll is catastrophic for Labor. Talk that ALP primary now 30 and Gillard approval -15.
]
CUhlmann Rumour mill rife with talk that Newspoll is catastrophic for Labor. Talk that ALP primary now 30 and Gillard approval -15.
Toolman:
[
CUhlmannChris Uhlmann
Rumour mill rife with talk that Newspoll is catastrophic for Labor. Talk that ALP primary now 30 and Gillard approval -15.
33 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
Surely they’d want that splashed all over tv tonight?
My guess is that they know everyone’s hanging on it, it’s a bit of a nothing poll, so they’re squeezing a bit of suspense out of it. Or maybe looking to find the best Bad-For-ALP angle to sell it with.
You can see how Gail Kelly was given her job by her performance tonight on QandA. She is the standout performer when you would have expected her to be crucified in an audience panel format.
[Yeah, fancy Abbott getting a warm reception at a Liberal party function. Hold the front page.
Oh hang on – the ABC *did*.
Seriously, forget journalistic integrity and other high minded nonsense like that – where’s their &%*^$ dignity?
Whoever wrote that might as well be doing puff pieces on Pavlova for New Idea.]
Or at Pravda or the Nth Korean “Information” Service.
CUhlmann Chris Uhlmann
Rumour mill rife with talk that Newspoll is catastrophic for Labor. Talk that ALP primary now 30 and Gillard approval -15.
[CUHLMANN | 19 seconds ago
Rumour mill rife with talk that Newspoll is catastrophic for Labor. Talk that ALP primary now 30 and Gillard approval -15]
fess, agree. the ceo of the other banks must be fuming
[This could be ‘real’ bad!]
Didn’t Billbo skewer this particular myth earlier?
Goshome
snap!
They would have leaked it by now if it was as bad as we fear. Murdoch would have run it so Janet and co could gloat on his Qanda show
Hmmm. Maybe I was being optimistic about 46/54?
Hmmm, buy on rumour, sell on fact?
OK, I revise my prediction to 43/57.
Gail Kelly. I’m in another room but I can hear her Japie accent in the background constantly. When I went in for a peep, the image I got was of a donkey eating an apple – and through a tennis raquet at that. Those fangs are impressive!
She does however, talk a fair bit of sense and I doubt she would be taking any shit from any of these panellists, least of all Joe Hockey.
Where’d that come from? I just went to his twitter page, and it’s not there. The link has it, but the page doesn’t.
stanny @ 2715 Fair enough, that is your view. As none of us can actually predict the future all views are up for grabs in the current climate. As a long time student of history I can tell you that all this poll watching and analysis at the moment is actually about as useful looking at the entrails of chickens.
In terms of the comment about being obstructionist – I agree with you that Abbott has picked up votes because of it. It is not sustainable though as a long term plan and if they can’t force an election soon (and I don’t see how they can) he will go and they will try the next bloke.
[
CUhlmann: Minus 15. Trying to confirm the numbers but first source is usually reliable. Both major parties agree Labor’s numbers are bad.
]
Oh, but if Bilbo reckons it wasn’t so bad, I will have to revise my prediction in the light of further information.
My prediction is now 50:50.
ctoolman
have used a whole tube of KY
hope I can do it every newspoll
🙁
Gail Kelly is talking rubbish.
In Singapore, the mortgage loan interest rate is between 0.7-1.2% per annum. The Banks pick up all the costs associated with establishing the loans, docs, lawyer etc.
Finns:
Westpac has gotten some very noice higher income PR tonight.
CUhlmann
Minus 15. Trying to confirm the numbers but first source is usually reliable. Both major parties agree Labor’s numbers are bad. less than a minute ago via Twitter for iPad
CUhlmann Chris Uhlmann
Minus 15. Trying to confirm the numbers but first source is usually reliable. Both major parties agree Labor’s numbers are bad.
Nah, 20 – 80, who knows! Is someone running a book on this?
JJ
Oh, well that changes my prediction back to 43:57 again.
Hi dear ones.
Abandoned the arduous chores. Had a look at QnA. Just the beginning.
Should I keep watching?
Albrechstein attempting to keep up with Kate’s hair.
Don’t think so.
“2721 myk42
Posted Monday, March 7, 2011 at 10:23 pm | Permalink
How is the fishing Dr John?”
Must say bites on all lines but all toads or throw backs
Wait for the stampede as the Libs come a running.
Finns
Singapore housing market structured completely differently so no fair comparison. Plus Singapore inc has debts of somewhere north of 100% of GDP, and GFC-wise they need their interest rates to be v. low. Too lowment to be sustainable.