Galaxy: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Galaxy poll for New South Wales has the Coalition on 50 per cent of the primary vote, down a point on the previous poll, with Labor up three to 23 per cent and the Greens steady on 14 per cent. This translates into 64-36 on two-party preferred, which compares with 62-38 from Newspoll, 61-39 from Essential Research (as adjusted by Antony Green) and 66-34 from Nielsen and the previous Galaxy. Contrary to expectations that Labor’s numbers might represent their irreducible bedrock of support, no less than 41 per cent of Labor voters say there is a chance they will change their vote before election day, compared with only 24 per cent of Coalition supporters.

The poll is of interest in being the first test of public opinion on the carbon tax, respondents having been asked if “Kristina Keneally is correct to take the long term view on the carbon tax issue or does it show that she is out of touch with the needs of the people of New South Wales”. The result had 37 per cent opting for “correct” and 55 per cent “out of touch”. If you were of a mind, I suppose you could spin this as saying supporting the carbon tax is about the most popular thing the government is doing right now: further questions find the Coalition rated better to handle every policy area (roads, water, public transport, health, education, law and order, helping families and the sale of electricity assets) by margins of between 14 per cent and 38 per cent.

Also: 47 per cent say they will just vote one, while 51 per cent say they will allocate preferences; Barry O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-54 to 34-50; and there are another three questions you can find out about the link, the basic thrust of which is that the government is unpopular.

It seems the current parliament officially expired overnight – this is good timing, because this site’s previously slow work rate on the New South Wales is about to pick up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

173 comments on “Galaxy: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. Dovif,
    “Where we paid for the Olympics, did major rail constructions, plan major construction of olympic site, balance the budget

    See the second highlighted bit of the above? Those words are yours. So it is OK for the Libs to balance the budget but not okay for anyone else? This sort of statement is why you constantly look like an idiot.
    And what is this “we paid for the Olympics” shit? You did nothing of the sort. I don’t know what drugs you are on where you can get kicked out of government and still think you are allocating funds five years later.
    Still waiting waiting for you to tell me about those major rail constructions, also highlighted from your own idiotic statement. A bit hard to find when they only exist in your imagination, aren’t they?
    As for no infrastructure, I suppose the 300kms of dual Pacific Highway completed since 1998, with another 100Kms under construction right now (ref: happened because Greiner or Faher dreamt something up prior to 1995? Did the Epping to Chatswood railway build itself? Have you been to North Sydney or Chatswood railway stations recently? What about the Leppington railway, now under construction? Driven down past Kiama lately? How do you think that huge new freeway got there? Schools, hospitals, water, electricity – all moving forward. Sure, more could have been done but I can just imagine the carping and whining from your News and 2GB friends had there been more than two deficits in fifteen years to pay for it.
    Liberals are for one thing and one thing only. Tax cuts and lower government spending. It isn’t just in their DNA, it is their DNA. That and lying. You are especially good at it.

    PS One more inconvenient fact. Sydney was awarded the Olympics in September 1993. It was not 1994. Wikipedia is not always the most reliable source. But never minded, people like you and the Libs in general just make it up with very little likelihood of being picked up by the media

  2. Mick Quinlivan @ 112

    [imagine it is 27/3/11 the anti-labor parties have just been elected… The first thing they do is announce the cupboard is bare……. cannot afford the limited promises made….need to cut back massively ….. maybe appoint Nick Greiner to assist .]

    Well, Greiner’s successor, John Fahey, is unavailable for the job as Julia has appointed him to oversee the spending on Queensland’s reconstruction.

    Roy Orbison @ 113

    [No voices in my head. The voice was out of Scott Morrison’s mouth and it was all racist. Take your blinkers off.]

    And once again I ask you, what did Scott Morrison say???

  3. “And once again I ask you, what did Scott Morrison say???”
    You’ve obviously forgotten his Muslim funeral rant. The one he “apologised” for. This guy represents Cronulla for a reason.

  4. Apologies if this has been mentioned already, but news from everyone’s favourite newspaper the Illawarra Mercury, Saturday edition.
    Conducted : Feb 28 – Mar 3
    Sample size: 400 per seat (4.1% MOE). As far as I can tell, respondents were asked if they wished to allocate preferences, as per NSW OPV.

    From North to South:
    Heathcote (currently ALP 59/41): Lee Evans (LIB) 49%, Paul McLeay (ALP) 23%, Phil Smith (Greens) 19%, Greg Petty (IND) 6%.
    LIB gain 62-38

    Keira (currently ALP 72/28): John Dorahy (LIB, and first captain of the Illawarra Steelers ;)) 44%, Ryan Park (ALP, David Campbell’s replacement) 37%, George Takacs (Greens, and my old physics lecturer) 18%.
    LIB gain 52-48

    Wollongong (currently ALP 75/25): Noreen Hay 34%, Michelle Blicavs (LIB) 24%, Gordon Bradberry (IND) 23%, Brendan Cook (Greens) 17%, Other: 3%.
    ALP hold 53-47 v Bradberry.

    Shellharbour (currently ALP 77/23) Anna Watson (ALP) 52%, Larissa Mallinson (LIB) 34%, Peter Moran (Green) 14%
    ALP hold 61-39

    Kiama (currently ALP 62/38): Greath Ward (LIB) 42%, Matt Brown 27%, Sandra McCarthy (IND, Kiama mayor) 19%, Ben v.d. Wijngaart (Greens) 9%.
    LIB gain 60-40

    Moral of the story: 20% swings across the board.

  5. Fran @ 150

    You have unveiled yourself as #1 national heretic!!

    However, when you are tied to the stake, I will be there with my fire extinguisher!!

    You are quite right. I don’t have a problem with some money being spent on elite sporting facilities. The problem is that money is just poured in – there is no way in the world that public money needs to be given to the AFL for example. There is lots of money poured in to new elite facilities when in Sydney and Melbourne there are stadia that are essentially empty. The same goes also for entertainment facilities. The same again for spending on sport – why should the AIS be spending money on a bobsled program for example? Swimming pools, local ovals, local tennis and netball courts, sure no problem, minimum spend for maximum benefit but the elite stuff – AFL, NRL – should be able to pay for themselves.

  6. [I don’t have a problem with some money being spent on elite sporting facilities. ]

    Well I do. I saw no reason to bid for the Olympics or to push for the Soccer World Cup or to invest in Formula 1 Events. The AIS should be composed of full-fee-paying students — at least in courses that are aimed substantially at elite sports. I wouldn’t be cooperating with WADA either. Let them run their own programs at their own expense or in collaboration with elite sporting bodies here. Elite sporting bodies would be treated as purely commercial organisations for tax purposes — like QANTAS or Coles or the NAB.

    Elite sports would be defined as those that are broadcast to audiences bigger than about 1% of the Australian population and have officers and players paid at or above AFTWE.

    In terms of broadcast, the transmission of elite sporting events would be deemed not as programming but advertising and the broadcaster would be deemed as having received billings at the industry rate for that time and audience for tax purposes. Equally, coverage in print media would be treated in the same way.

    Politicians would be discouraged from appearing at elite sporting events except as purely private citizens and especially discouraged from making observations on matches or participants. The standard formula would be — “I’m not here as a policitician but as a citizen looking for some amusement. My opinions are a private matter.”

  7. @157…… Canterbury definite Labor retain
    East Hill close…. labor favoured
    Oatley…… close libs prob favoured……. but Kevin Greene is a good local MP
    with a personal vote. I don’t think another Labor MP has won Lugarno in the last 20 years under any circs

  8. Mick

    Agree with your assessment! It’s Judy from Banks FEC many years ago.

    Notice Furolo has no ALP logo and agree on East Hills but through close friends involved with the Lions Club in the Oatley area hear very good things about Greene.

  9. @152 there is a huge difference between trying to build and trying to destroy.
    Mr Greiner had lots of practice with cutbacks when he was premier

  10. Dovif,
    “Roy Orbison

    LOL 80% of NSW disagree with you, you really have no point LOL

    Maybe. But everyone here has pegged you as a lying goose. That’s not going to change. Have a good rest of your weekend, tonk.

  11. Roy at 151. Congratulations on including two labor slogans of yesteryear in your pitch for the return of the ALP government – moving forward and more to do. Do you accept or reject Mike Carlton’s criticism of the ALP in the SMH yesterday? If you cannot get his support, where do you go?

  12. dio

    fatty is running scared

    why even rebut a labor ad

    methinks the fibs are a tad scared

    the labor ads have an obvious bite

    the fibs are going to cut cut cut

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