GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Galaxy poll for New South Wales has the Coalition on 50 per cent of the primary vote, down a point on the previous poll, with Labor up three to 23 per cent and the Greens steady on 14 per cent. This translates into 64-36 on two-party preferred, which compares with 62-38 from Newspoll, 61-39 from Essential Research (as adjusted by Antony Green) and 66-34 from Nielsen and the previous Galaxy. Contrary to expectations that Labor’s numbers might represent their irreducible bedrock of support, no less than 41 per cent of Labor voters say there is a chance they will change their vote before election day, compared with only 24 per cent of Coalition supporters.
The poll is of interest in being the first test of public opinion on the carbon tax, respondents having been asked if “Kristina Keneally is correct to take the long term view on the carbon tax issue or does it show that she is out of touch with the needs of the people of New South Wales”. The result had 37 per cent opting for “correct” and 55 per cent “out of touch”. If you were of a mind, I suppose you could spin this as saying supporting the carbon tax is about the most popular thing the government is doing right now: further questions find the Coalition rated better to handle every policy area (roads, water, public transport, health, education, law and order, helping families and the sale of electricity assets) by margins of between 14 per cent and 38 per cent.
Also: 47 per cent say they will just vote one, while 51 per cent say they will allocate preferences; Barry O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-54 to 34-50; and there are another three questions you can find out about the link, the basic thrust of which is that the government is unpopular.
It seems the current parliament officially expired overnight – this is good timing, because this site’s previously slow work rate on the New South Wales is about to pick up.
DT Article: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/kristina-keneallys-bittersweet-16-seats/story-fn7q4q9f-1226015605089
Also, the 54th Parliament of New South Wales expired at midnight. The Government is in caretaker mode.
There you go Gus and GG:
The ALP surge is on!
Is there any possibility greens votes wont expire at the rate expected? I can’t see how it is good for them or NSW for a party to be destroyed. Not that I expect rational voters or for the green party to see the light through the incense but I was wondering.
Here is the link direct to the Galaxy poll
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2011/03/03/1226015/634075-state-politics-poll.pdf
That is four different pollsters with 60+ to the Libs! At least we know when this earthquake will occur. The fact that the coalition is even ahead on “helping families” says it all.
For that reason, I don’t think the carbon tax question is very meaningful in this survey. When the respondents are in the midst of rejecting Labor on everything, many will also not be in a mood to consider issues like the carbon tax.
I was very disappointed with this poll. How could Labor be polling this high percentage of primary votes after proroguing Parliament they way they did , selling off the power assets and this week exempting the Barrangaroo site from the normal rules of contamination management. They are lucky they are not below fifteen per cent. Why don’t the rusted on voters just switch to the Greens or Independents which would force Labor to clean up their act instead of carrying on like the mafia.
I cannot wait to see Bruce Hawkers face after the election. He can’t sandbag his key seats this time as there are simply to many voters he would have to “buy off”.
William, the 23/01/11 Galaxy Poll had the relevant figures at ALP 48 Coalition 26. With Labor’s vote also having improved in this poll I doubt that the Labor vote will fall any further.
The carbon tax question is rather loaded but if you take it as a general indication. 60% of ALP TPP voters support it. Problem is that the TPP vote is 37% of the total probably made up of
23% ALP (63% of Labors TPP)
11% Green (30% of Labors TPP)
3% Other (7% of Labors TPP)
Assuming all the Greens support the tax, then of the remaining 70% the support is 30% for and 40% against.
Put another way, translating to federal voting intentions you could guess that
14% greens….14% support
36% Labor…..15% support
41% Coalition ..6% support
9% other…….2% support
Gives the 37% total support
Simply mentioning state Labor in a question poisons it. Labor could propose a cure for cancer and polls would indicate people are against it.
@ Mithrandir
Agree…interesting that Virginia Judge and Linda Burney appear to know this as well – their posters, polluting my local area, mention “Labor” only in the fine-print!
[How could Labor be polling this high percentage of primary votes after proroguing Parliament they way they did , selling off the power assets and this week exempting the Barrangaroo site from the normal rules of contamination management.]
Pretty run-of-the-mill stuff for a government isn’t it?
Who is “GG”.
The polls would suggest that the Labor Government’s behavior is far from run of the mill it is somewhat extraordinary. Perhaps you like KK’s idea of having a Minister of Rock Triton or three leaders in four years but you would probably tell us that Silvio Berlusconi is a run of the mill type leader too Triton
Cheers
stanny, I confined my comments to the few items you mentioned. Proroguing parliament, for example, is in the same class of action as calling an early election. Governments do things all the time in their own interests, and even when everyone can see it they are not usually punished too badly for it. That’s how it’s run-of-the-mill. Maybe in this case you’d expect the response to be much worse, since it was on top of everything else, but you can’t ask for much worse than 36-64.
triton: Ironically, I think the carbon tax is an issue that might help Labor’s vote hold up a bit, particularly since O’Farrell (strangely, considering who the voters undecided at this point are) is trying to kick up a fuss about it.
It’s one issue where Keneally’s on the right side, and I think it has the potential to stop some of the rusted-on’s transferring to the Liberals.
[Is there any possibility greens votes wont expire at the rate expected? I can’t see how it is good for them or NSW for a party to be destroyed.]
Speaking as an active Green who has been staffing polling booths since 2007 …
I know of no Greens who plan to give a preference to Keneally. We are as scandalised as everyone else about the utterly debauched condition into which the NSW ALP has urged this state. We can see no future for left-of-centre politics in NSW this side of a thorough rout of the ALP. The connection with the Carr regime and its ethos must be utterly severed. If that means the ALP get only 15 seats out of 93, then so be it.
Most amusingly, I noticed some posters for ALP members in the innercity the other day. Linda Burney’s was brilliant. I had heard that the signs had downplayed the ALP logo, and so as I sat in traffic I tried to see if I could see it on her poster. I did find it, in tiny print buried on her right shoulder with a dark background. Doesn’t that say it all?
In Haberfield there are huge signs saying “keep Verity” which is ironic because the word also means truth. Again, amusing as she’s also minimised her ALP connections.
Out on Mamre Rd St Mary’s there’s someone who seems to think emphaisising her first name — Prue — is more important than the ALP connection. Laughable. They don’t even believe in their own party. Still, you can see why.
If the ALP are absolutely flogged, we will be able to have a reckoning with the architects of the flogging — the sleazy rightwing nutbag machine. Those who still believe integrity is possible and standing with working people essential can look to The Greens raise the standard instead.
Well if you are trying to destroy the alp Fran the you will both have asked for and deserve the autocratic undemocratic very right wing government you deserve – will be hilarious to watch from far away as the lunatic shock jock right entrench itself as the ‘centre’ of society in your state.
Someone said the worst affects of such lunacy will be inevitably offset by your upper house not having a govt majority. I don’t understand this and think you deserve a liberal upper house too on these kind of numbers.
Rebecca
From what I heard, there was more than a few ALP MPs in the Hunter and Illawarra area, who was not very happy with the Federal ALP for announcing the Carbon tax now.
Add Kevin Greene to the list of mysterious ALP members, his poster is Green and there is no ALP logo sight.
And I mean ‘undemocratic’ not in the sense of illegitate – the govt will be legitimate no matter how extreme right wing it is – I simply mean free to do what it likes unburdened by the normal balances of a critical press and effective opposition. And the greens will no doubt carrying on and feel really good about themselves as they help the libs by being so extreme it justifies the libs insane right wing lurches. As I said will be hilarious to watch.
[Those who still believe integrity is possible and standing with working people essential can look to The Greens raise the standard instead.]
You saved the worst till last. The greens against the Libs next time around will be an even bigger rout if that is at all possible.
Fran
Interesting comments.
One thing though.. please don’t have a car accident whilst searching for ALP logos!
That would surely be the straw that would break the camels back.
Rebecca
Anyone who even remotely care about Climate Change would have nothing to do with the NSW ALP, they would be voting Green and exhausting.
The reason for so many cars on the road is because the ALP had not build the NW rail link. As for the Green scheme to cut emittion, NSW ALP raided it to give everyone $500 rebate, because the ALP did not increase electricity generation capacity.
Anyone who cares about Climate Change would not vote for the NSW ALP
Why would a Green vote or even preference the NSW ALP? This is also the same government that has facilitated a reduction in public transport ridership when in a city like Melbourne it is growing quickly.
And as for all lame programs that Dovif has detailed …..
It is a government beyond excuse.
Greens hatred of the ALP will come around to bite them on the b..m. A lopsided right-wing parliament will be dreadful for NSW, as you will find out soon enough.
Isn’t it ironic seeing all these Labor supporters suddenly shedding crocodile tears for “democracy” and “accountability”, having been happy to rack up landslides and “crush the Opposition” themselves over the last 10 years.
How many exactly landslides of this proportion have there been? How many times were the Lina without party status because they didn’t have enough members?
LOL at WeWantPaul.
Dude, the NSW Government is indefensible.
Labor have recorded some thumping landslides in state elections in particular; Qld 2001, 2004, Vic 2002, SA 2006, reducing the Liberals to a rabble. No complaints from labor types about “democracy” then.
When Abbott took over as Liberal leader in 2009, there was some extraordinary crowing from Labor types about landslide victories, “two decades of government”, “destroying the Liberal party as an Opposition”, etc, etc. So it’s pretty hard to have much sympathy when the boot’s on the other foot and the same people suddenly start sooking about “democracy”.
And personally, I think the best long-term result for NSW and democracy in general is for labor to get crushed. I’d be more concerned for democracy if Labor can carry on how they have in the past term-and-a-half and still get a “not too bad” kind of result.
As for the Liberals, well they will have seen first hand how quickly the worm can turn; Labor riding high in 2007 and getting wiped out only four years later.
the greens amaze me……. they’ll get their 4 to 5 seats max across 2 houses of parliament and be utterly impotent in each one. They prefer to entrench a anti labor one party State. Hopefully the green voters aren’t as silly as their organisation
It’s not a matter of sympathy. I agree, it’s time for Labor to lose and refresh iitself in Opposition. But it’s less certain that the Libs deserve to win, and certainly not to the extent that you create a one-party state.
Just on pure utilitarian grounds, you will rue the day.
Believe me. Trust me.
No 30
The Liberals deserve to win because the only other party who is able to gain enough numbers to govern has broken all of its promises and has instituted a revolving-door Premiership and Ministry.
Labor’s diabolical predicament is 110% their own fault.
It’s not the Greens’ responsibility to dig Labor out of their hole.
And it’s certainly not the NSW voters’ responsibility to “go easy” on Labor under the guise of “democracy”
Happy Caretaker Day!
I’m actually looking forward to the 26th just to see what goes where and what goes against the tide
And i expect the Greens will do as they did in Victoria or maybe a little better for Red Ted was clearly an inner city latte sipper, I’m not sure if anyone has called the NSW Liberal leader Red Barry
MDMConnell @ 25
[Isn’t it ironic seeing all these Labor supporters suddenly shedding crocodile tears for “democracy” and “accountability”, having been happy to rack up landslides and “crush the Opposition” themselves over the last 10 years.]
WeWantPaul @ 26
[How many exactly landslides of this proportion have there been? How many times were the Lina without party status because they didn’t have enough members?]
Yes, turn it up WeWantPaul. The Coalition will have a two-thirds majority, just like Labor have in the current parliament, and just like Labor had after the 1978. 1981, 1999 and 2003 elections
[arty
Posted Friday, March 4, 2011 at 1:00 pm | Permalink
Who is “GG”.]
Greensborough Growler. He was making some heroic predictions about NSW (ALP winning in minority government with Greens support) earlier but appears to have been silenced recently. Gus was saying some of the people he has talked to have switched back to the ALP 20% to 40% apparently. Looks like the 20% remains accurate!
I was just being a bit cheeky in post#2, saying to them both that maybe the great comeback has started given the 2% TPP improvement!
About time their ridiculous rabid pro-ALP spin is put out of its misery, I’m afraid…
🙂
From Twitter:
[I know of no Greens who plan to give a preference to Keneally. We are as scandalised as everyone else about the utterly debauched condition into which the NSW ALP has urged this state. We can see no future for left-of-centre politics in NSW this side of a thorough rout of the ALP. The connection with the Carr regime and its ethos must be utterly severed. If that means the ALP get only 15 seats out of 93, then so be it.]
Fran
I would have to agree. I would consider any vote for the ALP in NSW as democratic treason. The fact that the primary is so low is a resounding indictment of the current government by the previously loyal members/supporters of the ALP. Those who would still endorse this government over any other should hang their head in utter shame. No one, in absolute terms, since federation has seen ANY government this riddled with scandal, corruption and sheer incompetence. Don’t even think about Bjelke-Queensland either. They were saints compared to the NSW mob here and they didn’t have the endemic incompetence.
There is a term in Psychology called ‘cognitive dissonance’ which describes the conflict people have when their behaviour does not match their values. Countless studies in the field reveal that it is far more common to change their values to match their behaviour. I put the challenge to ALP supporters here that if you truly value the principles of what was once a proud, important and competent party, you must change your behaviour and not vote for them.
dovif@18: From what I heard, there was more than a few ALP MPs in the Hunter and Illawarra area, who was not very happy with the Federal ALP for announcing the Carbon tax now.
I doubt that. While I can certainly understand some federal members being concerned about the carbon tax, the voters who are undecided in NSW at this point are going to be firmly on the left of politics; those who have in all likelihood never considered voting Liberal before. I really highly doubt anyone much who was still going to vote Labor after everything up to this point would defect over federal Labor’s support for a carbon tax; however, there’s a pretty decent swathe of voters for whom O’Farrell making a dick of himself about the environment might just persuade them to suck it up and stay Labor.
I think your comment at 22 was right on the money prior to this; however, I think O’Farrell’s comments changed that. He’s the one Liberal leader for whom making a fuss about the carbon tax was an absolutely dumb thing to do. It could shore up another five safe Labor seats that he might otherwise have nabbed.
Mick Quinlivan@29: the greens amaze me……. they’ll get their 4 to 5 seats max across 2 houses of parliament and be utterly impotent in each one. They prefer to entrench a anti labor one party State. Hopefully the green voters aren’t as silly as their organisation
The Greens are doing what Labor supporters on this site always argue for: prioritising their success over the success of other parties with whom they often disagree. If the Greens preferenced Labor in NSW, it would cause a whole swathe of voters to switch from the Greens to the Liberals. They know damn well if they preference Labor they’ll be hit with a very damaging “a vote for the Greens is a vote for Labor” campaign, and that’s a heck of a lot to risk for a vague chance that they might elect one more Labor MLC in union hack Andrew Ferguson, of the never-that-helpful-to-the-Greens Ferguson dynasty.
one could well argue that a vote for the greens is a vote for the Liberals. I’ll seriously have to consider my 2nd preference in the senate next federal election after this.
WeWantPaul Said:
[Well if you are trying to destroy the alp Fran you will both have asked for and deserve the autocratic undemocratic very right wing government you deserve]
As opposed to the autocratic undemocratic very right wing government I’ve endured for the last 16 years you mean?
An old saying runs that if you keep doing what you’re doing, you’ll keep getting what you’re getting. There are women I know who keep expecting their loser boyfriends/husbands to recognise their loyalty and eventually realise that they ought to treat them nicer. They go to outlandish lengths because they can’t stomach the idea of losing the dream that deep down, their love figure really loves them.
Of course, the harder they try the more they tell the loser that his actual behaviour is what they really want and that he can please himself at their expense. Rather than changing his behaviour, they are enabling it.
That’s how it is with the ALP. That’s why I don’t vote for them.
Mick Quinlivan said:
[I’ll seriously have to consider my 2nd preference in the senate next federal election after this.]
Please do. We are a progressive party. As long as I have any say in it, there will be no place in our party or its support base for reactionaries. I’d prefer reactionaries voted for someone else.
Nothing personal, but I’d prefer to keep politics tidy.
Toorak Toff said:
[it’s less certain that the Libs deserve to win, and certainly not to the extent that you create a one-party state.]
Just desert has nothing to do with it. Just desert has never been relevant to elections — not in this country and not in any others I’ve heard of.
In this country, we have a boolean system. There’s the governing party and a not-the-government party. At election times, if the former is deemed to have failed by enough people in enough seats, they role-reverse.
What would be better is
a) not to have state governments at all
OR
b) if we can’t have that, then to have single member PR with lists
Given the above though, neither of the system’s beneficiaries have an interest in that. Each fancies they are just one juicy scandal away from being in power. This time around, they’ve had about a dozen.
Given that active party members of both these gangs of sleazebags amount to fewer than about 1 in every 178 people or so, this is awesomely good for those who, like scum, rise to the top.
@ 37 what is democratic treason? a rubbish term
Hi,
I will vote Green and preference Labor. Quentin Dempster just scared me with a vision of the Upper House being controlled by the Christian Democrats and Shooters Party. I’d like to see the state remain in the 21st century rather than regressing to the 19th.
New South Wales is a mess and the parliament should be abolished because it’s full of time servers and money grabbers. It’s always been like that…It doesn’t matter what party they come from, they are all the same…
Fran – there going to be what 30 or more new MLAs and you are calling them sleazebags/scum in advance of knowing them? You do tend to make some good points and then mire them!
Mick Quinlivan@39: one could well argue that a vote for the greens is a vote for the Liberals. I’ll seriously have to consider my 2nd preference in the senate next federal election after this.
One could argue it, but it would be a lie – whereas if the Greens had preferenced Labor in spite of all their sins the “a vote for the Greens is a vote for the Labor” slogan would be an unfortunate truth. In OPV, the Greens decision to preference no-one can’t rationally be seen as a vote for anyone else but the Greens.
liyana@44: I will vote Green and preference Labor. Quentin Dempster just scared me with a vision of the Upper House being controlled by the Christian Democrats and Shooters Party. I’d like to see the state remain in the 21st century rather than regressing to the 19th.
This is what I’d be doing if I were in NSW, too – although the choice of the brother of “uranium on the breath” Martin Ferguson or a batshit Liberal isn’t much of a choice for any Green voter.
@47 Rebecca you seem to think different to Fran…….. Andrew Ferguson is quite an idealist. I doubt he’d be a supporter of Uranium mining
@ 46 sorry I didn’t see this post as I would have replied to both together. My point is votes go from Labor to the Greens in seats the Greens cannot win. Those votes then exhaust and allow the liberals to win. where they would have otherwise lost. lets see after election day how many seats with a combined ALP/ green vote of 55% or better return liberal mla s
Despite being a Green, Rebecca, I actually support nuclear power/uranium mining, subject to suitable environmental provision of course …