GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Galaxy poll for New South Wales has the Coalition on 50 per cent of the primary vote, down a point on the previous poll, with Labor up three to 23 per cent and the Greens steady on 14 per cent. This translates into 64-36 on two-party preferred, which compares with 62-38 from Newspoll, 61-39 from Essential Research (as adjusted by Antony Green) and 66-34 from Nielsen and the previous Galaxy. Contrary to expectations that Labor’s numbers might represent their irreducible bedrock of support, no less than 41 per cent of Labor voters say there is a chance they will change their vote before election day, compared with only 24 per cent of Coalition supporters.
The poll is of interest in being the first test of public opinion on the carbon tax, respondents having been asked if “Kristina Keneally is correct to take the long term view on the carbon tax issue or does it show that she is out of touch with the needs of the people of New South Wales”. The result had 37 per cent opting for “correct” and 55 per cent “out of touch”. If you were of a mind, I suppose you could spin this as saying supporting the carbon tax is about the most popular thing the government is doing right now: further questions find the Coalition rated better to handle every policy area (roads, water, public transport, health, education, law and order, helping families and the sale of electricity assets) by margins of between 14 per cent and 38 per cent.
Also: 47 per cent say they will just vote one, while 51 per cent say they will allocate preferences; Barry O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-54 to 34-50; and there are another three questions you can find out about the link, the basic thrust of which is that the government is unpopular.
It seems the current parliament officially expired overnight – this is good timing, because this site’s previously slow work rate on the New South Wales is about to pick up.
This publication by Antony Green might be of interest:
2011 NSW election preview: analysis of past voting patterns by electorate
http://www.apo.org.au/research/2011-nsw-election-preview-%E2%80%93-analysis-past-voting-patterns-electorate
Who is “GG”.
“GG” is the destroyer of the ALP
Mick Quinlivan @ 48
[Andrew Ferguson is quite an idealist.]
I guess Stalinism is an ideology. Didn’t he put his name to the petition to bring Hugo Chávez to Australia.
@50 such a view wouldn.t be acceptable within the Nsw greens party
A lot of people from all parties do support nuclear power. It’s expensive and there are problems with waste disposal. But it’s in extensive use in countries like France and is carbon-neutral. Australia is very hypocritical mining and uranium but not using it.
NSW has suffered from having a weak Opposition, not so much in numbers as quality. It has a weak Opposition now. It will have an even weaker Opposition soon. After the honeymoon, things can only get worse.
MQ
[@ 37 what is democratic treason? a rubbish term]
Such robust argument.
Actually democratic treason is the betrayal of a jurisdiction through apparent democratic process by supporting a regime which is, in absolute terms, destructive to the fabric of that society or by an overwhelming majority thought to have no capacity to govern.
Thus, voting for such a regime, despite full knowledge of the above and a consideration of the likelihood of further incapacity to govern simply out of loyalty to that regime or blind prejudice is a betrayal of that society.
I see parallels with Libya here. The overwhelming majority want Gaddafi out, it is apparent that the regime cannot govern and will yield no good for the citizens of Libya. Thus, if a democratic election were held today and citizens voted for Gaddafi, if there was clear and present evidence that they were aware of that suggested that such governance would result in a society worse of from previous experience, such citizens would be committing democratic treason. Their blind loyalty for a corrupt and incompetent government would be a betrayal for the citizens most likely to suffer under such regimes.
If you vote for Labor in this election, with full knowledge that the well of good leadership is well and truly dry. Knowing that this government has been given countless opportunities to correct mistakes, cease to make illegal, incompetent and unwise decisions both publicly and privately and is, even today no better. Knowing that the political will with every measure available, of citizens in your neighbourhoods is to remove this government. Then you are committing democratic treason.
You elevate a tribal political group above the greater good for the people of New South Wales and you are a traitor to the democratic process.
The closer you are to the party, the more you should be aware that the apple is full of worms and it is disingenuous to pretend to decent hardworking Australians that this is not the case when you know better.
To pretend that the alternative is worse when you don’t have one iota of information about that future is no fig leaf for this embarrassing shame.
If a drover’s dog can win an Australian election, you can trust the will of the Australian people that there is a bloody good reason for that situation.
I dislike intensely being told some one else knows better than me how I should vote.
NSW is very different to LIBYA. terms like political treason fit well into Castro’s cuba, Vietnam And China…. they mean opposition to the ruling communist parties.
I repeat…… democratic treason is a rubbish term.
If you are looking for an excuse to preference Labor, here two or three:
1. A strong Opposition is needed to keep the Government on its toes. A weak Opposition is bad for democracy.
2. You can never trust the Libs and Nats. They will turn the clock back. They can’t help themselves when they have real power (remember John Howard when he fluked a majority in the Senate).
3. There are Labor slimeballs but there also are some very good people. It would be very unfair and a great pity to lose the likes of Nathan Rees, who stood up to the machine (with fatal results for his own career), Kristina Keneally (I wish she was running SA), the Deputy Premier (I’ll never forget whatshername) and lots of others, I’m sure.
Anyway, that’s the opinion of someone who has voted over the years for the Greens, Labor, Democrats, Comms, Trots, Xenophon, but never the Libs.
Barry O’Farrell had my vote (first time ever I would have voted Liberal in my life) until I wrote to him about an issue that affected me personally (I am in Kenneally’s seat and despite all the Green wanking, she is going to hold it). His reply was beyond pitiful. In fact, if anyone here wants the details, contact the webmaster and I will show it to anyone masochistic enough to want to see what four, and almost certainly, eight years of Liberal government will be all about.
So I decided to vote informal. That was until Scott Morrison reminded me as to how viciously racist the Liberals really are. That means I hold my nose, as they say, and vote Labor, although they in no way deserve anyones vote.
If anyone is delusional enough to think that the Liberals are going to deliver anything or achieve anything is obviously not old enough to remember the Greiner/Fahey years. Yet, they will still win reasonably (although nowhere near as much as they think they will) handsomely.
The time has come for this country to throw some fertaliser on those tiny spheres between their legs, get them to grow and finally get rid of that hopeless collection of failed solicitors, union leftovers, religious tub-thumpers, real estate agents on the make and two bob racists that make up our state governments. Give us one commonwealth and about thirty large regional councils, one less election and watch the country fire.
just out of interest I would like to know what others think of the concept or idea of democratic treason
Most OECD countries have nuclear power plants, while the rest, like Italy, buy electricity from their neighbours’ nuclear plants. This, and their greater reliance on gas, is why Australia, the odd man out, has the highest per capita carbon dioxide omissions in the world – not because we lag behind them in wind turbine construction.
@59 this is actually a considered response
[The time has come for this country to throw some fertaliser on those tiny spheres between their legs, get them to grow and finally get rid of that hopeless collection of failed solicitors, union leftovers, religious tub-thumpers, real estate agents on the make and two bob racists that make up our state governments. Give us one commonwealth and about thirty large regional councils, one less election and watch the country fire.]
Now there is the best suggestion I have read on PB since being a member. An accountable Commonwealth and an efficient local governance. Maybe one council per 300 000 in metro areas, 150 000 in country/coastals and 50 000 in remote regions.
One Commonwealth responsible for education, health and police. Simpler planning laws, lower taxes, relocation barriers eliminated.. I like it, RO 🙂
Liyana @ 44
If you believe the parliament should be abolished..can you please share with us all what sort of governmental system we should have?
[“GG” is the destroyer of the ALP]
the only GG to destroy labor was John Kerr
🙁
[I dislike intensely being told some one else knows better than me how I should vote.]
A valid opinion but irrelevant to the case in point. If you define ‘better’ as ‘more ethical’ then I could care less how you felt about it.
If you, in good conscience, know your tribe screwed up and will, in all likelihood, continue to damage that democracy and still vote for them, you may score in loyalty but you lose in pure ethics. You are a traitor to the society that set up that democracy. No better than Junta in Myanmar who see daily the damage they do and yet steadfastly cling to the comrades they are loyal to.
You cannot compare John Howard’s reign to NSW, the polls don’t support you, you could not say the overwhelming majority of Australians agree with you and you cannot say, in absolute terms that it was an unmitigated disaster. The Australian people will look at you as if you are mad (or at the very least, very deluded). Ask the same question of NSW and even Labor voters will pour vitriol on the men and women that ruined the party in NSW.
There comes a point where we need to take a long hard look in the mirror and see if your blind prejudice is making you a person you swore you’d never be…
If you vote for the ALP government in NSW then I stand by my assertion that you are committing democratic treason.
[If you vote for the ALP government in NSW then I stand by my assertion that you are committing democratic treason.]
as opposed to democratic infantilism if you vote for the fibs?
If I knew my son was pyschopathic and he was on trial for murder, with more than a reasonable suspicion that the charge was completely true, and I supported his innocence and right to be free in society, I am doing the wrong thing. If I suspect that he killed many times and still defended him, you may call me a good Dad but I am a bad citizen.
If I have suspicion that he can’t or won’t change, that harm may come to others or that he is so broken inside he can’t be fixed, no amount of loyalty and love for him can justify the desire to have him free with such potential to harm others.
This situation is exactly the same with the Labor government in NSW. No amount of nostalgia, or self-identity wrapped up in supporting that party or sense of loyalty will overcome the wrongness of supporting a dangerous, volatile and incapable government knowing that it may never really change for the good. It is a wrong thing to do.
bp
so barry is a mass murderer?
[The time has come for this country to throw some fertaliser on those tiny spheres between their legs, get them to grow and finally get rid of that hopeless collection of failed solicitors, union leftovers, religious tub-thumpers, real estate agents on the make and two bob racists that make up our state governments. Give us one commonwealth and about thirty large regional councils, one less election and watch the country fire.]
…what he said.
Gusface
[as opposed to democratic infantilism if you vote for the fibs?]
Really weak. I’d take a child over a despot (or nepotia) any day of the week.
If you support this regime you too should be ashamed, whomever you are.
[Really weak. I’d take a child over a despot (or nepotia) any day of the week.]
ok , you got that off your chest
but what about the NSW election?
bluepill…….. I do not accept to vote ALP is immoral. Suggest you hand out for the libs on election day and tell all that to vote Labor is treason…….. see what happens
there is a huge difference between saying someone is wrong or misguided and someone is effectively evil
[bluepill…….. I do not accept to vote ALP is immoral. Suggest you hand out for the libs on election day and tell all that to vote Labor is treason…….. see what happens
there is a huge difference between saying someone is wrong or misguided and someone is effectively evil]
Of course you don’t. As Ghandi is so often quoted as saying: “There are none so blind as those who will not see”.
The rest of that post means nothing and lends nothing to this discussion. You retreat into tribalism “hand out for the libs”. This does not justify your position ethically at all. You can’t blame libs for the ALP.
To suggest that what? some harm may come to me at a polling place if I stated this?? Would that nullify anything written tonight?? Does thuggery or abuse make a sound position unsound? Does it make the incumbent government somehow better? Does it justify your view? What? better vote ALP or what will happen exactly??
If you draw your bow from “wrong” to “evil” that, again does nothing more than shift the same dial. It’s all the same knob Mick Quinlivan. You vote Labor in NSW knowing what you know and you elevate your tribe, the ALP, above this state’s democracy.
Toorak Toff @ 58
[1. A strong Opposition is needed to keep the Government on its toes. A weak Opposition is bad for democracy.]
What makes you think this stable of asses will show competence in opposition when they showed none in government?
[Anyway, that’s the opinion of someone who has voted over the years for the Greens, Labor, Democrats, Comms, Trots, Xenophon, but never the Libs.]
Yes, the Holodomor and the Great Chinese Famine pale against the horrors of privatised green slips.
[“GG” is the destroyer of the ALP
the only GG to destroy labor was John Kerr]
“GG’ is the John Kerr 2
NSW will most likely still have 23 seats to the ALP, whilst the coalition will have 66 and Greens 4.
Whether or not those ALP MPs ought to withdraw from candidacy or else become independents, knowing the damage this government has done is both for them alone and also, I’m guessing a ‘none & buckley’s chance’. Citizens who vote for the party that created this mess in those electorates that remain ALP will be judged, over time, for the wisdom and ethics in making that choice.
Roy Orbison @ 59
[That was until Scott Morrison reminded me as to how viciously racist the Liberals really are.]
What are the voices in your head accusing Morrison of?
@77 I’m not suggesting any harm would come to you….. just you’d be seen as insane
maybe the police would ask you to move on
[What are the voices in your head accusing Morrison of?]
Frankie V
gloria springs to mind
👿
“Does thuggery or abuse make a sound position unsound? Does it make the incumbent government somehow better? Does it justify your view? What? better vote ALP or what will happen exactly??”
I have NOT advocated violence in anyway or vote Labor or else !!!!!!
Oh, no, 30 large regional Councils being run by the same morons who run the State Parliaments…
At least in SA we don’t have political parties running the Councils, there are pp members but Councils aren’t run by them.
You guys can keep your Labor and Liberal Party Councils, try this on and we will secede!
Roy Orbison
THe dreadful Greiner/Fahey year
Where we paid for the Olympics, did major rail constructions, plan major construction of olympic site, balance the budget
yeah those dreadful years of the last competant NSW government
bluepill
[As Ghandi is so often quoted as saying: “There are none so blind as those who will not see”.]
I hope Gandhi isn’t often quoted as saying that because it isn’t his saying. It is derived from the Bible.
Gandhi said “An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.”
[I hope Gandhi isn’t often quoted as saying that because it isn’t his saying. It is derived from the Bible]
Ok, that’ why I suggested that he is so often quoted as saying it. We don’t really know where it comes from. Suggestions have included Gautama Buddha and the UK.
You know nothing about the Bible though. It is certainly not there.
Seriously though.. of all the things to pick on. You support NSW ALP too I guess. A room full of them, by the looks…
When I see on TV Keneally campaigning in Fairfield and O’Farrell in Toongabbie, this tells me that the private polling of both parties is broadly in line with the figures of the published polls.
Kristina’s only remaining tactic is to campaign like an Opposition Leader and hope the Liberals start to get arrogant & cocky & make a few mistakes over the next few weeks – what I’d advise Labor HQ.
Nathan Rees made a fair point today – the MSM aren’t putting O’Farrell under any sort of scrutiny.
roy orbison, 60, amen. One weaker national government, and 30+ regional (i happen to think 500,000 a good number, how about some homage to traditional tribal groupings … the current system is dysfunctional and encourages corruption, inefficiency, duplication of services, party nepotism … the list seems endless
Reading Anthony Greens brillent paper on NSW elections based on his information if we say the Liberals will win every seat that they would have won had all federal and state elections been on the same boundaries then we gove the Liberals 19 gains with the safest being Kogarah 17.7%
If we then give the Liberals all the seats under 17.7% that have not voted against the ALP during the past twenty years then the Liberals would have an additional 14 gains
Three others would fall to Greensa and Indie.
If this was too happen the ALP would be left with 14 seats which would be in line with current public polling but politcs being politcs do we really see every seat under 17.7% changing
When i look closely at the numbers i still think the ALP will win something in the mid 20s for even in the 1996 federal election landslidfe some of these seats would have been easliy held and are people really telling me that KK is more hated than Keating was.
Greens paper covered the 90s and 00s
bluepill
[You know nothing about the Bible though. It is certainly not there.]
Actually there are quite similar verses in the Bible on the theme of having eyes but not seeing. The saying is thought to derive from them.
[Matthew 13:13
Therefore I speak to them in parables: because they seeing, see not; and hearing they hear not, neither do they understand
Jeremiah 5:21
Hear now this, O foolish people, and without understanding; which have eyes, and see not; which have ears, and hear not.]
[Seriously though.. of all the things to pick on. You support NSW ALP too I guess. A room full of them, by the looks…]
No I support accuracy. And I certainly don’t support NSW Labor. I look forward to them being tossed into the wilderness.
bluepill
Or in other words, I’m a red pill kind of person.
The Greens make some strange decisions from time to time.
In last year’s federal election, Labor had an exceptional candidate to take on the unsalubrious member for Sturt.
Rick Sarre was a law professor, loquacious, intelligent, hard-working, progressive. So what did the Greens do? They preferenced Labor candidates in marginal seats – except in Sturt, where they ran an open ticket.
Mind boggling.
Dio
Hats off to you. Not the same quote but nevertheless the same intent.
v.impressed 🙂
Dio
Hats off also for the handle reference: “Blue Pill”. I too am a “red pill” kind of person but not happy wearing red, if you get my drift.. so an ironic choice.
bluepill
The Matrix is one of my favourite films. And I happened to have just read a bio of Gandhi so you are giving me way too much credit.
[The terms redpill and its opposite, bluepill, are pop culture terms that have become a common symbol for the choice between the blissful ignorance of illusion (blue) and embracing the sometimes painful truth of reality (red). The terms were popularized in science fiction culture via the 1999 film The Matrix. ]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redpill
Dio and BP:
Is this what you guys are talking about?
😉
And Dio, please don’t tell me he didn’t say this because it is my favourite quote from Gandhi during the struggle for independence:
“Mr Gandhi, Mr Gandhi! What do you think about British civilisation?”
Gandhi: “I think it would be a good idea.”
Antony Green is this mornings Australian is quoted as saying that the Nats may win more seats than the ALP. After the election, the Libs could dump the Nats, Nats become opposition, ALP reduced to minor party status. That would be something!
Here’s an extract from a recent speech by Gary Lockwood, president of the Australian Society for Labour History, Adelaide Branch. Lockwood, a onetime DLP official, asks whether we now have a DLP government in South Australia and concludes:
[So for those of you that say prayers at night just know…we in South
Australia will not be on our own – in a few weeks time NSW we could see a
Liberal Government in that State – one that also has strange connections.
The irony is that the person who has the most influence in the NSW Liberal
Party is a person by the name of Hon David John Clarke MLC – he is Co-
operator of the Opus Dei Prelature in Sydney and his wife is a full member of
Opus Dei proper – He is involved with the Cardinal and Sydney University.
When the Liberals replace the current Labor Government with Barrie O’Farrell
– not much Ladies and Gentleman would have changed…the control of the right
of the Labor Party in NSW will only be replaced by the right of the Liberal side
of Politics…I suspect just controlled by the same organisation – OPUS DEI.]
Mod Lib
Yep, that’s what we’re on about. It’s a variation of the famous thought experiment about whether you take a drug that makes you permanently happy or not.
Gandhi evidently did make that joke but he wasn’t exactly a barrel of laughs.
TT
Is all this Opus Dei stuff a conspiracy theory or are they genuinely influential?