Antony Green blogs on three developments in electoral and parliamentary reform so I don’t have to. To cut some long stories short:
• An all-party agreement to revert the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly to 35 members, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998, has fallen through after Opposition Leader Will Hodgman withdrew support in a riposte to government budget cuts.
• After flirting with a self-interested reversion to compulsory preferential voting, which was ditched in favour of the superior optional preferential model in 1992, the Queensland government has confirmed no such change will occur before the next election.
• The Australian Electoral Commission’s submission to the parliamentary inquiry into last year’s election has called for the federal parliament to follow the lead of New South Wales and Queensland in allowing enrolment to be updated automatically using data available from schools, utilities and such, thereby relieving voters of the bureaucratic annoyance that is currently required of them in discharge of their legal obligation. Antony Green also reports “rumours the Federal government plans to legislate on the matter”. Given the standard of discourse from some elements of the media in recent times, this could get interesting.
On a related note, British voters go to the polls on May 5 to decide whether to replace their archaic first-part-the-post electoral system with the manifestly superior “alternative vote”, or optional preferential voting as we know it in Australia. Antony Green has been working overtime lately responding to the avalanche of tosh being disseminated by the “no” campaign in its efforts to deceive the voters into making the wrong decision.
With no Morgan poll this week, here are some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.
• The Australian reports a poll conducted for the Nationals in the wake of the carbon tax announcement had 40 per cent of voters in Lyne taking a favourable view of Rob Oakeshott, against 52 per cent unfavourable. This is said to compare with a poll conducted before the 2008 by-election that brought him to federal parliament which had his approval rating at 71 per cent and disapproval at just 8 per cent.
• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports a Coalition poll conducted for the NSW election shows 62 per cent “firmly against” the government’s carbon tax proposal, with only 18 per cent in favour.
UPDATE (7/3/11): The first Essential Research poll taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent. Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.
Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.
Prime Minister Shorten will deliver the 2011 budget if these figures are the same in 6 weeks
Yep. When JG actually said there wouldn’t be a carbon tax this term before the election I thought it was a mistake (I’m talking tactically here, not in terms of the rights or wrongs of the policy) , and the fact that the Oz gave it far, far more prominence than one might have expected given the context etc at the last moment in the campaign made me suspicious.
“Never say never” is not a bad rule in politics. All too often sets you up for a later beating all too often if circumstances change unpredictably. I doubt that she won a single vote as a result at the time of the comment itself.
Yes…….why Labor lost a fair few seats in QLD, because their local boy got rolled by those hacks Shorten, Arbib & Farrell.
Gillard is gorne. she’s screwed, her career is nailed to a sinking mast
the alp and greens just haven’t learnt the lesson of Copenhagen, Rudd or Turnbull
Carbon tax is bad policy, its the third rail of Australian politics, step on it and you die.
A serious question is: How can Rudd’s popularity be harnessed to the overall benefit of the Govt?
evan14 said:
With all due respect what do you expect with Labor having a PV of 30% and the Coalition at 45%. What do you expect Coalition voters to say to such a question? The important question is who do Labor and Greens prefer to lead Labor, not the other side that wants to defeat Labor.
Of course Finns 😉
The point is that the Greens here should finally realise that their policies are not electoral nirvana like they wish to believe.
They are basically unelectable!
You want to go with Green policies, you have got a real fight on your hands.
They are bad news!
You mean those same Hacks who installed Rudd over Beazley ??
evan14@2880
That’s right, the message from this poll is about statesmanship. They want some. Merely announcing a price on carbon is not enough. Gillard will languish until she erases the memory of her backflip with some brilliant, imaginative, intuitive, gutsy baton work at the front of the parade. I hope otherwise, but fear that she is only really suitable as a back row drum majorette.
Frank
It’s loaded but it’s not that bad. The reality is that some people will have to pay more for some carbon-intensive products to stop global warming.
Ahh Circle Jerking by the LIbs 🙂
LOL, talk about loaded!
mith
wise words
I have been sharing my view for sometime that I thought the greens decision to ‘not negotiate’ climate change with Rudd was at best foolish at worst diabolically evil. The tide has turned and a minority now support action on carbon change, sadly some of that minority is inside the liberals and might well just vote liberal anyway.
I always thought the backlash being strictly anti labor for failing to call a DD was a bit of a pipe dream.
I can’t think of anything that would turn this around. Hopefully the PM can.
Was talking to my mother the other day and frankly she is a very intelligent person, but heading fast towards a limited fixed income (like a whole bundle of baby boomers) and is scared of the costs to her of climate change.
I can’t blame her, and now it seems quite clear she is with a majority of Australians, although the ‘accept it is true + scared of paying for it with money they don’t have’ class might be relatively small.
Politics is about grabbing the small windows of opportunity to do good, and frankly the greens last time slammed the window shut. I’m sure they thought they would have more influence and could make up for the three year delay and do even better. The lesson is never shut a window that might get stuck shut.
Squiggle,
Gillard is PM. Gillard will stay PM until 2013 because the only people who can out her are the indies and they because they can’t guarantee they will still hold the balance of power if they switched sides (because we all know Rabbott wants an election) it aint going to happen.
So Mr Squiggle as much as you would like it this poll aint an election and things are not going to change until the election in 2013 and maybe not even then!
New thread.
I am not nervous.
Why would the PM deliver the 2011 budget and not the treasurer, talking through Bob Katter’s hat?
Maybe the rest of the front bench stops treating the man like he’s a leper and gives him the respect he deserves?
But Foreign Policy doesn’t win elections, it’s really up to Gillard and her senior economic & climate change ministers to sell the Carbon Tax, it’s no longer Rudd’s baby.
Well, anybody still wants to sell it as “Carbon Tax”, you have your wish with tonight Newspoll.
It’s “Pollution Tax” stupid.
Evan you are nothing if not predictable. Firstly the poll is bad but means nothing as far as the next election goes. There is plenty of time to overcome the fear camapign.
If, as you say Rudd will be smiling at this then Rudd is not the man I thought he was and that is a Labor man through and through who has the best interests of the party at heart. You have a pretty poor opinion of the very person you say you support.
Space Kidette,
Good to hear because that’s what we need. May I suggest a couple of lines of complaint to pursue with Their ABC?
1) Ru posted this earlier:
2) They ran a headline today:
Abbott finds sympathetic audience in Adelaide
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/07/3157152.htm
And the reason he got a “sympathetic audience”? The forum was full of Liberals!! Adelaide Now:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/take-part-in-the-news-abbotts-adelaide-community-forum/story-e6frea83-1226016941909
Any excuse to put up a pro-RAbbott/pro-Lieberal headline.
No mention of compensation, just prices up and you will ‘pay more’. The benefits to the planet are almost a footnote at the end of the question. It’s a right royal shocker.
evan,
You’re wearing that dress again.
It’s actually polls like this that will ensure Labor will keep the indies on side.
I wonder if that could be because we have moved on, Evan. Kev will NOT be leader of the Labor Party again. We cannot go back to the ADHD approach to policy. We have to bed things down properly. Ask any public servant – I have 2 in the know.
Here’s a little piece from crikey today
The Oz have got the poll result they have sought.
Also the Oops’ slagging of the indies.
The Greens here are so unreal and deluded!
They think it’s Julia’s lie backflip 😆
What a joke!
It’s the carbon tax.
People will not trust politicians that tax their cost of living.
They must see the money and be guaranteed of it first.
They don’t give a rats about climate change.
That’s the REAL reason I have continually reminded everyone “Oh global warming it’s good it’s going” when the weather would seem normally fine.
As has 2GB and 3AW and 2UE.
Anyone who thinks Labor will get 30% PV at the next election has rocks in their head. Won’t happen.
Exactly.
That should read at 2930 “Oh global warming it’s going good”.
By the way magnificent autumn day here in Sydney. Women are already starting to wear boots out.
Oh it’s going good alright. They’ll be able to sell it easy 😆
2466
No SA has 11 MHRs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_national_and_state-by-state_lower_house_results_and_maps_for_the_2010_Australian_federal_election#South%20Australia
Absolutely nothing. Suggests the whole thing is a noise reaction, though the Libs will take some comfort from Gillard taking a hit on the “Lie” issue.
Bilbo – forget to lock the door here ? 🙂
Toorak Toff and Frank are right. A loaded question had a lot to do with the result and perception. All the more reason to keep the nerve and stick to the plan on climate change.
Well Frank, I concur! Talk about loading a poll. 😡