Stuff and/or nonsense

Antony Green blogs on three developments in electoral and parliamentary reform so I don’t have to. To cut some long stories short:

• An all-party agreement to revert the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly to 35 members, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998, has fallen through after Opposition Leader Will Hodgman withdrew support in a riposte to government budget cuts.

• After flirting with a self-interested reversion to compulsory preferential voting, which was ditched in favour of the superior optional preferential model in 1992, the Queensland government has confirmed no such change will occur before the next election.

• The Australian Electoral Commission’s submission to the parliamentary inquiry into last year’s election has called for the federal parliament to follow the lead of New South Wales and Queensland in allowing enrolment to be updated automatically using data available from schools, utilities and such, thereby relieving voters of the bureaucratic annoyance that is currently required of them in discharge of their legal obligation. Antony Green also reports “rumours the Federal government plans to legislate on the matter”. Given the standard of discourse from some elements of the media in recent times, this could get interesting.

On a related note, British voters go to the polls on May 5 to decide whether to replace their archaic first-part-the-post electoral system with the manifestly superior “alternative vote”, or optional preferential voting as we know it in Australia. Antony Green has been working overtime lately responding to the avalanche of tosh being disseminated by the “no” campaign in its efforts to deceive the voters into making the wrong decision.

With no Morgan poll this week, here are some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.

• The Australian reports a poll conducted for the Nationals in the wake of the carbon tax announcement had 40 per cent of voters in Lyne taking a favourable view of Rob Oakeshott, against 52 per cent unfavourable. This is said to compare with a poll conducted before the 2008 by-election that brought him to federal parliament which had his approval rating at 71 per cent and disapproval at just 8 per cent.

• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports a Coalition poll conducted for the NSW election shows 62 per cent “firmly against” the government’s carbon tax proposal, with only 18 per cent in favour.

UPDATE (7/3/11): The first Essential Research poll taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent. Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.

Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,939 comments on “Stuff and/or nonsense”

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  3. [With no Morgan poll this week, here are some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.]

    To determine whether these mean anything or not, we’d need to see the actual wording of the questions asked, and whether the people polled were on the coalition mailing list, or just random members of the public.

    Probably best to infuse with a generous dose of sodium chloride.

  4. Good Morning, Bludgers.

    Re UK referendum: The hopeful (or doomsayers) see LibDem’s Barnsley thrashing as an omen for 5 May.

    [The Liberal Democrats, driven into a humiliating sixth place in the Barnsley Central byelection, are braced for further setbacks in northern cities in the local elections on 5 May.

    With the referendum on the AV voting system to be held on the same day, the no campaign claimed the Barnsley result also marked the deathknell of Lib Dem efforts to secure a yes vote, saying it would redouble its efforts to show AV would lead to a permanent Lib Dem presence in government.]

    Lib Dems braced for further setbacks on 5 May after Barnsley humiliation: Campaigners against AV claim the Barnsley result marks the deathknell for the yes campaign.

    IMO, the No campaign seems to reek of FoxNews & TeaParty-like end of civilisation as we know it fear campaigns and rank dishonesty – probably from a similar source, for the same reason. As Antony Green confirms, all sorts of utter tosh was & still is being pedaled about the Australian Preferential and Optional Preferential systems. The fact that almost no one who voted in the original Australian Preferential Voting election would be alive & compos mentis enough to vote in the 2010 election (not yet called then) seemed to be incomprehensible; although a few eyes did seem to light up at the thought that, in Optional preferential systems by whatever name, people did not have to cast a vote for any candidate they did not like.

    I guess the extent to which the LibDem base is very seriously annoyed at Clegg has only increased the fear of permanent Labour-LibDem parliamentary dominance.

    2. Meanwhile, The Independent does publish some very good news Cell breakthrough for Alzheimer’s

    [Brain cells that play a critical role in Alzheimer’s disease have been created in the laboratory by scientists.

    The stem cell breakthrough has been hailed as an important advance in Alzheimer’s research, allowing a limitless supply of neurons on which to test new drugs.

    Potentially the work could also pave the way to cell treatments – transplanting healthy lab-grown neurons into the brains of patients.]

    This report of experimentation, currently confined to Alzheimers, should be be able to be expanded to treat other forms of dementia often incorrectly designated as Alzheimer’s (inc stroke-related neural) and brain damage through birth and injury. So the fear campaigns re nursing homes for aged Baby Boomers may prove unfounded.

    3. But the Indie can’t let Murdoch get away with BSkyB without a thorough (& rather scathing) analysis Media rivals cry foul as Murdoch wins battle for full control of BSkyB Seriously not happy.

  5. Morning all –

    OPT – I heard a bit about the BSkyB purchase yesterday. LimitedNOos to have 39% only but I laughed at that. Whenever would 39% stop Murdoch from having full say and what’s to stop some sycophantic mob holding the remaining 61%.

    [From Peter van Onsolen after my email.

    Hang in there pls! We are going to trial some more interaction with viewers, it might take a few weeks to get the mix right]

    BK – this is ridiculous. The Sky audience is mostly conservative (note their poll results) so it would mean that any Labor/Green/Indie leaning person would be voted off.

  6. [some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.]

    Given its track-record on honesty, and its aims in publishing/leaking polls on Lyne and Carbon pricing this close to the NSW election, esp following this week’s Fed Coalition performances & Indie bullying – how many billion in this costing Black Hole, eh? – fairies in the bottom of the garden come to mind.

  7. I like Antony’s concluion:

    “If Australians can handle numbering the ballot paper and counting the votes by hand, can it be that difficult?”

    I suspect the majority of Brit’s aren’t even bright enough to realise the system does have advantages, let alone accept that they too can do it.

  9. from last threat, from Toothy Flameware Ver. 3.1

    [A final comment about the PBers is that the language on this blog is pretty profane and the comments are overtly personal from too many PBers and a lot of smug self righteousness.]

    This appears on PB. Yes, the post’s language is profane then overtly personal and finally smug self righteousness.

    SNAFU. Welcome to the club.

  10. Has anyone heard the results of the Shock Jock’s People’s revolt yet? Who won? I was away for a day or two and missed the final result.

  11. Poss not happy:

    [Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    Honestly, some of you people need a efffing hobby
    8 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

    Finnigans not happy:

    [Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @Pollytics poss, mine is cleaning up the poos you left on my veranda. STOP GIVING ME THE SHIT!!!! ha ha ha
    17 minutes ago Favorite Reply Delete ]

  12. on the other thead there was something about being worried about the next set of greens i think it came from the WA paper something about them being like harradine,

    gee i dont think so bob and the greens would be the opposite to any thing harradine ever demanded, so i dont get the comparison someone may like to let me know what they are on about.
    harradine if still around is north and south pole away from each other if that was poles apart means.

  14. [10 steve
    Posted Saturday, March 5, 2011 at 8:17 am | Permalink
    Has anyone heard the results of the Shock Jock’s People’s revolt yet? Who won? I was away for a day or two and missed the final result.]

    no but strck me at one of those times when you wake up in the middle of the night.

    this could be such an eye opener sticky beek, bit like an open home across from your house so to speek.

    we can see who actully phones up these people and the demographic.

  15. [If Australians can handle numbering the ballot paper and counting the votes by hand, can it be that difficult?”]

    did any one get the feeling when one of their new ministers was visiting , well he made me feel as though i had just been transported.

    how time flies

  16. Great point made in today’s Canberra Times

    [“Canberra has the distinction of being the only market in the world from which Rupert Murdoch has retreated in abject defeat”]

    Dear Mr Murdoch,

    Up yours.

    Regards,

    Darren Laver

  17. It’s War said Peter Hatcher. USA is addicted to war and we are not:

    [Call for a People’s Revolution – An Australian Tea Party could be big and noisy. It will also be countered in a way the US one was not. Can it stop the tax? Not by pressuring and intimidating the independents, on the evidence to date.

    Perhaps the central difference between Australia and the US is that we have compulsory voting. Extreme tactics in the US work because they motivate people to turn out at the polling booth. In Australia, where everyone turns out by law, the Liberals will win government only if they appeal to their right base and to the centre. They already own the right vote. Over-reaching could alienate the moderate centre and cost them support.

    American analogies only go so far, and the Liberals might be on the verge of stretching this to breaking point.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/call-for-a-peoples-revolution-20110304-1bi1v.html

    YOU CANNOT HANDLE REVOLUTION!!!!

  18. It all seemed to fizzle out very quickly mysay, I thought that by now we would have Young Liberals goosestepping around the streets with placards demanding a fresh election. Geriatrics taking over village sqares and calling for squares to be named after their favourite radio announcer. Statues of people giving stares and nodding replacing ordinary statues in city squares. Liberal politicians holding town hall meetings at Rooty Hill and Hillsong to sing the praises of polluters but it all seems to have failed to materialise. Personally I don’t think that the shockjocks could organise some action in a brothel with a handful of fifty dollar bills, as the old saying goes.

  19. • Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports a Coalition poll conducted for the NSW election shows 62 per cent “firmly against” the government’s carbon tax proposal, with only 18 per cent in favour.

    Surprised you missed this one, William:

    In a sign of the battle ahead for Julia Gillard in selling the new tax to voters, only 18 per cent said they were in favour of a tax. About the same number said they had not yet made up their mind.

    But 62 per cent said they were firmly against it.

    The remainder claimed to have no knowledge of it.

    How can 62% oppose the CT, and 18% approve of it in one sentence and then in the next two sentences 62% oppose it and 38% have never heard of it?

    It seems like Benson’s very muddled point is that to know the CT is to oppose it. If you don’t oppose it you’ve never heard of it.

    Anyway, I’ll leave that puzzle to the more psephy Bludgers.

    It’s a Coalition poll: we don’t know the question, we don’t know the sample, but we do know the people promoting it.

  20. More Liberal internal polls

    [
    JULIA Gillard’s proposed carbon tax is mugging NSW Labor in the lead-up to the state election, with more than three-quarters of voters not convinced the measure will do anything to help the environment.

    This is among the findings of internal Liberal Party opinion polling, conducted ahead of the March 26 state election, that has been provided to The Weekend Australian.

    A finding that will concern the Prime Minister and her federal Labor colleagues is that 51 per cent of those polled viewed the carbon tax as a cost-of-living issue, while 25 per cent saw it as an environmental issue and 21 per cent as “a demonstration of national leadership”.

    The finding is even worse news for NSW Premier Kristina Keneally, who launched Labor’s campaign for a fifth term last month with a $913 million package aimed at easing pressure on the cost of living.

    The poll, conducted over the past 72 hours by Liberal Party research consultant Mark Textor, sampled 800 voters in the 20 most marginal seats in NSW.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/carbon-tax-mugs-kristina-keneally/story-fn59niix-1226016177155

  22. Andrew Bolt is getting excited about the Liberal internal polling

    [
    There is more in this to terrify federal Labor than these bald polling figures. First, O’Farrell is acknowledging the fact that this tax is galvanising voters, making it an issue that Gillard will struggle to put to sleep. Second, having it become a big issue in the NSW election means the repercussions from the expected Labor wipe-out are more likely to rock Julia Gillard.

    All the signs for Gillard now point to “exit”.

    Bottom line: Gillard now cannot afford to back down on her tax, but Labor cannot afford not to. The logic is merciless: Gillard must go for Labor to save itself.

    ]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/if_ofarrell_is_campaigning_on_the_tax_then_gillard_is_finished/

  26. We will be getting a lot of stupid internal polls. This is all so transparent that any decent journalist should just ignore it. The election result will be intepreted by the conservatives as a rebuke to the carbon tax even though it has nothing to do with it. They are so desperate that they won’t let facts get in the way. The rewriting of history will be impressive to watch. NSW Labor was going to just ‘narrowly’ lose the election before the carbon tax announcement. Then suddenly all the polls had the Coalition in front by 70/30. This is how it will pan out and you can already write up the list of journalists (which will include many from the ABC) that will report it as such.

  29. [JULIA Gillard’s proposed carbon tax is mugging NSW Labor in the lead-up to the state election…]

    The OO is more desperate now that I can ever remember. To quote Lib polling (with no evidence whatsoever) as though it is of a quality comparable to Newspoll is simply a bad joke and of course an attempt to denegrate federal Labor in passing. NSW Labor is dead meat and the voters can barely wait to sink their teeth into the carcass. NSW politics is at a point where any polling on single issues like mining tax or CT or water management is pointless. I will await the NSW polls 6 to 12 months with interest once BO has had time to reign in spending and when the opposition in Canberra lose their blocking power in the senate.

  31. agree with laurie oaks this morning, re some people should watch what they say meaning the radio people and whipping things up, scary about the letters in support from the tea party in the us, but he doesnt say what sight that is on.

    the letters to days mercury are very much against abbott, and his ranting in QT
    one person says, wtte that of course Julia had to work with a new team meaning the ind, so naturally thing change.
    also discussing the waste of taxpayers money and that the libs should come up with policies not carping or words wtte, its the main letter to the paper with photos of abbott in QT,

  34. BB

    How can 62% oppose the CT, and 18% approve of it in one sentence and then in the next two sentences 62% oppose it and 38% have never heard of it?

    It seems like Benson’s very muddled point is that to know the CT is to oppose it. If you don’t oppose it you’ve never heard of it.

    Anyway, I’ll leave that puzzle to the more psephy Bludgers.

    I’m pretty sure what he’s saying (clumsily put) is that 2% have never heard of it. 62 + 18 + 18 = 98. Which leaves 2%. Mind you, I have no idea what he means by “About the same number said they had not yet made up their mind.” Doesn’t sound very accurate.

    Anyway, it’s just internal polling. It’s designed to engineer the result the Coalition want. We already know there’s residual resistance to the Carbon “Tax”. They’re just finding ways to overstate it.

  35. [Call for a People’s Revolution – An Australian Tea Party could be big and noisy. It will also be countered in a way the US one was not. Can it stop the tax? Not by pressuring and intimidating the independents, on the evidence to date.]
    An Australian Tea Party? Yech – how much more American do we have to get? We never had a Boston Tea Party. We don’t even have a Boston.

    We had a Rum Rebellion – lets have a Rum Party! I can see the bumper-stickers now:
    “I’m drunk and I vote” 🙂

    So lets call it the Rum Party. Even better, the Beer Party. People may turn up for the wrong reasons, but it will be fun watching all those conservatives explain why there is no rum or beer on hand 😀

    In politics, as in so much of government policy we seem to follow every bad idea the Americans introduce a few years afterwards (sometimes about the time the Americans realised it was a bad idea). Are we so incapable of thinking up our own bad ideas? Remember the GST Tax Pack? We can produce our own bad ideas to match any.

  36. Andrew Bolt should take his hand off it. Labor won’t dump Gillard. If they do, they’ll get a total of 5 votes in the following election (hyperbole, of course, but not by much.)

    Labor leadership post-Gillard is actually a problem for Labor. Shorten is seen as a union hack and self-interested by many voters, Combet has the same issues of salesmanship as Gillard seems to (ie plenty of logos but not enough pathos or ethos) as well as has the union hack stigma, Swan is dislikable, Rudd has had his chance and the rest do not really stand out as having leadership qualities. Stephen Smith sticks out as capable but is a bit dry in personality and seems a little old.

    Sure, all governments have this problem eventually, but it doesn’t become an issue until they’ve had a good decade or so of power. But, because of two leaders being potentially spent by 2013, it is an issue, especially as the next Lib PM could be a deranged lunatic who does serious damage to the country and the ALP need to really work on making him a one-termer, lest it happens.

  37. I concur with this assessment. selective entry govt schools brag about their results. Their results are based on selecting the brightest students. Of course, this would then reflect in their results. Does not mean they are fabulous schools.

    [FIRSTDOGONMOON | 37 minutes ago
    It’s beginning! RT @clubwah: And “selective-entry government schools” that brag about their results can sod off, just quietly. #myschool]

  38. i am very happy to give to get up but they must first do somthing about the cash the collected for the swimming lesson from tone.
    would some here remember what the money was raised for it was an auction wasnt
    it did the money go some where for charity or is it still waiting
    so was the swimming surfing lesson just the prize.

    I hope they do organise a rally for every captial city but i would have it the day before or the day after or the week end before you dont want any one clashing with that lot

  39. That Textor poll is a classic push poll. You can work out the questions from this and it is clearly editorializing.

    [Asked how the carbon tax would help the environment in practical terms, 76 per cent of those polled were confused by the issue. They were negative about the promised compensation package. While 62 per cent said compensation would be insufficient or worse, 57 per cent found a tax followed by a rebate “an illogical situation”.
    ]

    Labor should and will ignore crap like this. Nothing to see here. Move along.

  40. I wouldn’t look too hard into any polling done in NSW right now. The state election is skewing the outcome. However, it’s still obvious that the pollution tax is not being that well recieved at the moment. The government have to be out there allaying fears and promoting benefits.

  41. TSOP

    Labor have some talent for new leadership in the future. What do the coalition have? A bunch of over inflated, talentless, rude, obnoxious blow hards, and that is being polite!

  42. A finding that will concern the Prime Minister and her federal Labor colleagues is that 51 per cent of those polled viewed the carbon tax as a cost-of-living issue, while 25 per cent saw it as an environmental issue and 21 per cent as “a demonstration of national leadership”.

    There’s your money quote. The number of people seeing it as a cost of living issue will decrease as the nature of the policy becomes clearer. And the proportion of voters against it will diminish accordingly.

    Or at least that’s what should happen. Liberal ears will prick up at that titbit, and it will probably form the basis for most of their attacks. So once again we’ll have a battle between information and misinformation. I wouldn’t like to predict the outcome of that. And I’m suuuuure the MSM will do their bit to clear up any misunderstandings. Just as soon as we master porcine aviation.

  43. Hell, by saying the NSW election is a referendum on the Carbon Pollution Price the Libs might improve the ALP’s outcome. 😀

    Seriously, they have been gloating for months about the absolute wipeout demonstrated in the published polls for NSW Labor.

    This latest drawing of the long bow is all about creating nervous nellies in the ALP to destabilise the government.

    The media are trying to open a sore for the Rabbott to rub salt in.

  44. TSOP

    The govt have explained the framework. They can’t provide the detail until it has been fully nutted out and agreed to by all. It will take time. How much time should be allowed? I am not sure. Obviously, within the next few months would be ideal.

  45. [concur with this assessment. selective entry govt schools brag about their results. Their results are based on selecting the brightest students. Of course, this would then reflect in their results. Does not mean they are fabulous schools. ]

    WRONG WRONG,

    we are the boys catholic college take all comers in fact it sits in the center now of some of the most poorer suburbs of hobart and in some classes there is
    60/40 non catholics.

    once again people go off half cocked and no not what they area talking about.
    and if you roll up to a private school i am can assure you your scholastic ability is not looked at.

    my daugher teaches at one. and if you start in prep, no you dont get told to leave if you dont achieve.
    what nonsence sorry but your all wrong.

  46. [
    Andrew Bolt should take his hand off it. Labor won’t dump Gillard. If they do, they’ll get a total of 5 votes in the following election (hyperbole, of course, but not by much.)

    ]

    Yes his theory that Labor should dump Gillard and the Carbon Tax to survive is ridiculous. If they did that then they may as well hand in the keys to the Lodge at the same time

  47. [The OO is more desperate now that I can ever remember.]

    The OO goes from bad to worse.

    From a Liberal sh-tsheet to now a passionate advocate against democracy!

    Perhaps that discredited Liberal lady should have compared Murdoch to Khaddafi – given its efforts this week to oppose bills that seek to ensure all Australian citizens are entitled to self-determination.

    You could not make it up their fascist rantings even if you tried (and when you do like BB, they go to pieces).

    Anyone who works for that organisation or buys its putrid press products should be absolutely ashamed.

  48. my say

    I think you misunderstand the situation. There are entry select govt schools. Students neeed to sit exams. The school then selects the best students to attend. These schools obtain high results in VCE every year. Of course, they would when they select the best students to attend. That is not wrong at all.

  49. [Yes his theory that Labor should dump Gillard and the Carbon Tax to survive is ridiculous]

    We should not be surprised when Bolt offers advice to Labor that will harm them electorally.

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