Stuff and/or nonsense

Antony Green blogs on three developments in electoral and parliamentary reform so I don’t have to. To cut some long stories short:

• An all-party agreement to revert the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly to 35 members, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998, has fallen through after Opposition Leader Will Hodgman withdrew support in a riposte to government budget cuts.

• After flirting with a self-interested reversion to compulsory preferential voting, which was ditched in favour of the superior optional preferential model in 1992, the Queensland government has confirmed no such change will occur before the next election.

• The Australian Electoral Commission’s submission to the parliamentary inquiry into last year’s election has called for the federal parliament to follow the lead of New South Wales and Queensland in allowing enrolment to be updated automatically using data available from schools, utilities and such, thereby relieving voters of the bureaucratic annoyance that is currently required of them in discharge of their legal obligation. Antony Green also reports “rumours the Federal government plans to legislate on the matter”. Given the standard of discourse from some elements of the media in recent times, this could get interesting.

On a related note, British voters go to the polls on May 5 to decide whether to replace their archaic first-part-the-post electoral system with the manifestly superior “alternative vote”, or optional preferential voting as we know it in Australia. Antony Green has been working overtime lately responding to the avalanche of tosh being disseminated by the “no” campaign in its efforts to deceive the voters into making the wrong decision.

With no Morgan poll this week, here are some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.

• The Australian reports a poll conducted for the Nationals in the wake of the carbon tax announcement had 40 per cent of voters in Lyne taking a favourable view of Rob Oakeshott, against 52 per cent unfavourable. This is said to compare with a poll conducted before the 2008 by-election that brought him to federal parliament which had his approval rating at 71 per cent and disapproval at just 8 per cent.

• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports a Coalition poll conducted for the NSW election shows 62 per cent “firmly against” the government’s carbon tax proposal, with only 18 per cent in favour.

UPDATE (7/3/11): The first Essential Research poll taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent. Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.

Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,939 comments on “Stuff and/or nonsense”

Comments Page 2 of 59
1 2 3 … 59

  1. [They can’t provide the detail until it has been fully nutted out and agreed to by all.]

    Why didn’t they do that first, before making the big announcement? Talk to the Greens and indies, then, when a detailed agreement has (at least in spirit) been reached, announced it?

    All it has done is create an atmosphere of confusion with no ready answers that the opposition has seized on. If we wait for an agreement, it may be too late.

  2. my say

    my children have attended local catholic schools in the area where I live. There is no entrance exam. In fact, some students have left these schools to attend the govt select schools for obvious reasons. They are able to attend a high achieving state school without paying any fees.

  3. TSOP

    I believe the govt have deliberately created the confusion, so the Libs can go out and knock themselves out over it. I am convinced this was part of Labor’s strategy. The Libs have gone with it with all guns blazing.

  4. TSOP
    Bolt as with others in the media are trying to frighten the gutless in the ALP. They are trying to make the issue the ALP & take the focus off the Rabbott.
    If they dump Gillard now, the Rabbott will win the next election for certain & it will be an ALP wipeout

    Betcha Coalition internal polling has shown Rabbott’s support as leader dropping further.

  5. Bolt doesn’t seem to have his heart in his work today. It is just a rehash of trash he has written before. He occassionally gets up and goes to Italy or somewhere for six monjths when he gets writers block this bad so maybe we could be without him for a while soon.

  6. This is going to piss of Abbott, his cronies, Bolt and the rest of the hackery no end.

    [BERNARDKEANE | 1 hour 0 minutes ago
    cool, a bauble for the vassal state RT @harleyd: Gillard will address a joint session of US Congress. Only 3rd Oz prime minister to do so..]

  7. [BERNARDKEANE | 1 hour 0 minutes ago
    cool, a bauble for the vassal state RT @harleyd: Gillard will address a joint session of US Congress. Only 3rd Oz prime minister to do so..]

    Abbott will address a couple of shockjocks in Canberra as a counter move.

  8. [Betcha Coalition internal polling has shown Rabbott’s support as leader dropping further.]

    Probably. One saving grace for the govt right now is, however unpopular an announcement, the opposition has screwed up its reply. A more sane, level-headed opposition probably would’ve destroyed the government this week. Mind you, a more sane, level-headed opposition would’ve already negotiated an ETS to prevent a carbon tax.

  9. [BERNARDKEANE | 1 hour 0 minutes ago
    cool, a bauble for the vassal state RT @harleyd: Gillard will address a joint session of US Congress. Only 3rd Oz prime minister to do so..]

    And the righties will be quick to squawk “Howard* did too! And he was classy when he did it!” or wtte.

    *I am correct there, right? Howard did address a joint session? Pretty sure he did

  10. TSOP
    [Why didn’t they do that first, before making the big announcement? Talk to the Greens and indies, then, when a detailed agreement has (at least in spirit) been reached, announced it?

    All it has done is create an atmosphere of confusion with no ready answers that the opposition has seized on. If we wait for an agreement, it may be too late.]
    Can you imagine the outcry if the government with the indies came out & put the whole meal on the table before consulting with industry & all related affected sectors??????
    What they are doing is the right way to go about it. Unfortunately for the ALP we have a media that is infatuated with a thug.
    The ALP cannot do ‘nothing’ coz the media is against them. They have to get on with the job.

  11. Why didn’t they do that first, before making the big announcement? Talk to the Greens and indies, then, when a detailed agreement has (at least in spirit) been reached, announced it?

    All it has done is create an atmosphere of confusion with no ready answers that the opposition has seized on. If we wait for an agreement, it may be too late.

    I think this has been discussed. Doing it this way allows for some flexibility to adjust the policy over time. If it was presented as a fait accompli, it would be very easy for the Liberal/OO conglomerate to pick holes in bits of it, and present it as a schemozzle based on those.

    This approach was clever. Abbott did exactly what you’d expect him to – criticise it just as if it was a final product, quoting figures that he’s pulled out of various orifices. That’s the way he works; he has no interest in detail, he just wants things to complain about. Not having anything concrete to work with, he’s making it up.

    Couple the education aspect of it – drilling home the idea of it being compensatory, and targeted at increasing green-friendly industry – with the steady drip-feed of information, and the picture becomes clearer. And the shouting becomes less relevant.

    It’s a tough sell. But really, the toughest part of the sell is already over – the fact it will cost money. But that’s already being softened with talk of compensation to people for the costs borne by industry. And the benefits are yet to be rolled out.

  12. Two tales indeed>

    1. Rendang is aint Malaysian:

    [A tale of two Malaysian aristocrats – Petra, 60, has been working smaller, less formal gatherings of expat Malaysians in Sydney and Canberra. He’s another Malay aristocrat, from Selangor’s royal family, but has been a political exile for two years, fleeing repeated detentions without trial under the draconian Internal Security Act, and running his critical website, Malaysia Today, from London …………….. The dutiful but lukewarm welcome in Canberra, reciprocating a two-day visit by Gillard to Kuala Lumpur, reflects the scandals and political question marks that hover around Najib.

    When he was defence minister, signs of huge kickbacks arose from military equipment deals. After the purchase of French submarines, a young Mongolian model involved in the negotiations, Shaariibuugiin Altantuyaa, turned up in Kuala Lumpur seeking money and was murdered by two of Najib’s bodyguards. She was the lover of a senior Najib aide, who escaped conviction in the case.

    Petra says he was told by the “No. 2” in Malaysia’s military intelligence that Najib’s wife was “at the scene of the crime”. He filed a statutory declaration about this to the court, but it was not followed up. Instead, Petra himself was arrested. Hit with sedition and criminal defamation charges, he fled when he could. “I am not accusing him of being involved in the murder,” Petra said this week. “I do accuse him of not answering a lot of questions that have been raised.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/a-tale-of-two-malaysian-aristocrats-20110304-1bi4c.html

    2. Noordin Mohammad Top was:

    [of Malaysian citizenship, is a Muslim extremist, also referred to as (Noordin) Din Moch Top, Muh Top, or Mat Top, was Indonesia’s most wanted Islamist militant. Born in Kluang, Johor, Malaysia, he is thought to have been a key bomb maker and/or financier for Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)…… He was killed during a police raid in Solo, Central Java, on 17 September 2009 conducted by the Indonesian anti-terrorist team ]

  13. [Probably. One saving grace for the govt right now is, however unpopular an announcement, the opposition has screwed up its reply. A more sane, level-headed opposition probably would’ve destroyed the government this week. Mind you, a more sane, level-headed opposition would’ve already negotiated an ETS to prevent a carbon tax.]

    Yep – it is amazing that despite all the media fawning from their ABC to Alan ‘Gloria’ Jones, Abbott is still a laughing stock for most out there in voterland. While there is some disquiet against Gillard Labor, it wont translate into electoral success for the rag bag Coalition of parties, until they have a palatable leader.

    Howard was always behind in the polls as voters voiced their dissatisfaction with life at the time, but when Labor did not put up a credible LOTO come election time, Uncle Howie got back in.

  14. [All it has done is create an atmosphere of confusion with no ready answers that the opposition has seized on. If we wait for an agreement, it may be too late.]
    If so, that confusion will be overcome in the coming months with firstly the detail released and secondly the introduction of the scheme. Not sure what the concern is frankly.

  15. My take on Bolt and co is they must be very worried. They have looked beyond the two day time frame that Abbotts attention span covers and have seen what the future holds when the CC legislation is passed in August/September.

    They can say what they like. Julia is locked in as PM and the push for CC legislation is locked in by the government.

    Apart from the fact Julia is moving towatds being a very, very goods PM and the fact the CC legislation is good policy the government cannot back away for very obvious pragmatic reasons. They would be destroyed by the public, the MSM and the opposition.

    Perhaps by announcing the timetable and framework at the time she did the PM has seen off at the pass any attempts from within to put the issue on the backburner over the next few months. It is out there now and owned by this labor government.

    I think she has covered all bases.

    Details will be released over the next few months after consultation with business etc with the final design and compensation package out there by around end June.

    I think this timeframe is the practical period they have available especially as lehislation would need to be in Parliament by approx. August if implementation is due by 1 July 2012.

    My understanding is the committee of climate scientists and other experts ( hate that term ) that has recently been announced has a significant advertising budget to promote the dangers of CC and action needed. Will be interesting to see how it is used.

  16. [Peter Hartcher’s piece today suggests Get Up are organising a counter rallies to the People’s revolt]

    Betcha they get more people.

    BK – thanks for the email addresses. PVO sounding a bit nonsensical about the Greens this morning. Definitely the theme for Murdocracy this weekend.

    Interesting comment from one of the panellists who said he was surprised at how Green TW and RO are after hearing them speak at their ‘decision’ presser. Obviously he hasn’t been listening to them for the past few years.

    Who is going to believe a Liberal poll or a released Labor one for that matter. I’d like to see the ones they keep secret.

  18. Dee, I understand that but it’s hard to say “this is the right thing to do” when you don’t exactly know the details of what you’re doing. The govt does not necessarily have to know every single percentage and dollar amount involved straight away but by leaving it all entirely blank, it gives the opposition and the media the chance to stick hyperbolic, arbitrary numbers in there and preach doom and gloom.

    I dunno. The feedback I have gotten from many is of concern. Fortunately it’s mild concern and mostly of detail. Doesn’t seem like much of a vote changer but the phrase “I think Gillard’s doing a good job” is almost as common a phrase here as “Port Power suck!” I imagine a different story being told in the places in Australia less supportive of Gillard may be a bit more hostile.

  19. state school in tas do not have that type of entrance arrangement
    so does that mean some state schools become elitist

    we some private schools that have schollar ships but only ab out half a doz a year
    and the chritian bros schools have no such system its not part of their beleive

    they take all comers.

  20. Why didn’t they do that first, before making the big announcement? Talk to the Greens and indies, then, when a detailed agreement has (at least in spirit) been reached, announced it?

    1. The framework would have been leaked anyway, leading to “Gillard’s secret tax” headlines.

    2. A comprehensive blueprint would have been subject to charges of no consultation with stakeholders, same like the RSPT.

    TSOP, when you go into battle there will always be casualties and local reverses. It’s who wins in the end that matters.

    The greatest victories in history have still had casualty lists of wounded and killed for the winning side. Things go wrong: you adapt. Things go right: that’s where you make your push.

    Gillard has to get past the “broken promise” hurdle, and she has to do more than use QT and censure motion speeches to do it. She has to get out and sell the process and the broad anticipated outcome, and then fill in the details. The initial noise will die down. They can’t stay angry and bellicose forever. Life goes on.

    I am expecting probing by Labor on another part of the political front to take some of the heat off the CT. Don’t know what it is, but it’ll be planned for.

    A classic tactic is to suck your opponent into a vortex, letting them think they’re winning, drawing more of them into one place for what appears to be easy pickings, and then to surround them and press in from all sides.

  21. TSOP

    One thing I have noticed here in my area of Melbourne. No one seems the least bit fazed. No one brings it up as an issue. AFL footy and its little scandals, well that is another story!

  22. Just read the Hartcher piece and noted this

    [He was determined to help young conservatives to mobilise. A couple of years ago he travelled to the US and visited the Leadership Institute just outside Washington. It was set up specifically to train conservative activists. Its graduates include the man nicknamed “Bush’s Brain” for his work as George W. Bush’s political strategist, Karl Rove.]

    A question. Did Corey Bernardi travel to Washington and make this visit on a taxpayer funded study trip? He was Senator at the time. Should we demand an answer in the Prissie Pyne mode?

  23. my say

    here in Melbourne there are quite a few elitist state schools. They always head the list of the best performing schools in Melbourne. Is it any wonder why?

  24. I hope you guys are right. I apologise for my concern trolling, it’s just we (I include myself here) do sometimes try to see strategy where there may not be. And the more stupid it appears they are acting, the more subtle and clever we think their tactics actually are. I dunno. I tire of it sometimes. It would be nice to have one government proposal without an opposition carrying on like the PM just ordered Kristallnacht to happen and a media exaggerating every bit of concern and dissent as something that’s gonna bring down the government. Sigh.

    We need a “Calm The F– Down!” Rally.

  25. [A question. Did Corey Bernardi travel to Washington and make this visit on a taxpayer funded study trip? He was Senator at the time. Should we demand an answer in the Prissie Pyne mode?]

    And where are the headlines and bluster like those that were raised against Arbib’s alleged US connections?

    Double standards, thy name is the Australian press……..

  27. It has been very obvious from the day Abbott took over as Leader, that the coalition have adopted the Karl Rove playbook. It has been so obvious to be ridiculous.
    That is why I believe the govt is playing it this way. They are fully aware of the opposition’s tactics.

  28. Lenore Taylor has a good piece on climate in the SMH.
    Now back to the State of action and the Australian Guineas at HQ today.

  29. [The greatest victories in history have still had casualty lists of wounded and killed for the winning side. Things go wrong: you adapt. Things go right: that’s where you make your push.]

    The greatest marketing strategy is to create FUD in your opponents or competitors.

    F = Fear – ticked
    U = Uncertainty – ticked
    D = Doubt – ticked

    Yep, Gillard is doing the right thing.

  30. If only Labor had 94 odd seats, then they could just call an early election, win it because the swing is too large for the opposition to overcome in one go, then claim it was Australia emphatically saying yes to the tax, regardless of what the popular vote was…

  31. One would have to have rocks in their head to believe anything the Coalition says. I think I see what William meant when he titled this post Stuff and/or nonsense.

  32. [A question. Did Corey Bernardi travel to Washington and make this visit on a taxpayer funded study trip? He was Senator at the time. Should we demand an answer in the Prissie Pyne mode?]

    I know that the Queensland Shadow environment Minister David Gibson got into trouble a couple of years ago for going on some US junket and coming back to write a couple of lines report that didn’t satisfy the requirements of the Queensland Parliament. Hundreds of pages of rightwing political grassroots tactics were tabled eventually as part of the explanation of what he actually spent taxpayers money on during the trip. Sounds very similar to this case.

  34. Another thing that irritates me is the unchallenged assertion by the Coalition that the NSW election is a referendum on the carbon tax and that any loss by Labor in it is the country saying no – like Labor were cruising to win easily until the carbon tax was announced…

    Surely some political journalist and/or psephologist has commented that it has nothing to do with the result and the ALP have been looking at a crushing victory for ages now.

  35. [If only Labor had 94 odd seats, then they could just call an early election, win it because the swing is too large for the opposition to overcome in one go, then claim it was Australia emphatically saying yes to the tax, regardless of what the popular vote was…]

    Love it, Pebbles!

  36. [ A question. Did Corey Bernardi travel to Washington and make this visit on a taxpayer funded study trip? He was Senator at the time. Should we demand an answer in the Prissie Pyne mode?]

    Good spot, BH. This question needs to be forwarded to the Labor Party, the government, and the media.

  37. [Another thing that irritates me is the unchallenged assertion by the Coalition that the NSW election is a referendum on the carbon tax and that any loss by Labor in it is the country saying no – like Labor were cruising to win easily until the carbon tax was announced…

    Surely some political journalist and/or psephologist has commented that it has nothing to do with the result and the ALP have been looking at a crushing victory for ages now.]

    The NSW election will be a referendum on everything that the far right and its media drones want – they’ll be saying its a mandate for prayer in schools and the outlawing of sexual positions other than the missionary!

    Just watch.

    NSW be careful.

  39. [Peter Hartcher’s piece today suggests Get Up are organising a counter rallies to the People’s revolt]
    I made this suggestion to Getup when the whole people’s revolt garbage started.
    My input to Getup was this.
    Getup have spent a lot of time on whacking the government on their failure to act on CC. Now the PM makes a stand on the issue & where are you?
    It’s time to rally the troops & have a pro-carbon rally.
    TSOP
    I feel your frustration.

  40. [The prime minister will be only the fourth Australian leader to address a joint sitting of Congress next Wednesday (Washington time).]
    RAbbott: “Should’ve been me!”

  41. I do take offence with this article stating that the Rabbott has had rough media treatment.
    But this is where the Rabbott’s weakness on the carbon pollution price is at.

    [That has to be seen for what it is: a government counter-offensive. But all the same, in the coming months it won’t just be the opposition that will accuse its opponents of wilfully fleecing and hurting taxpayers. Abbott’s dual message of detesting fervent climate change believers while touting his willingness to spend billions of taxpayer dollars to cut carbon emissions is inherently contradictory. A deft government could exploit that.]
    Exactly!

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/it-may-seem-crazy-brave-but-pm-should-go-howards-way-20110304-1bhzv.html

  42. victoria

    Thanks for the link to laurie oakes and wingnuts @ 32. It’s worth reading just to remember that other pollies have also needed police protection for some years.
    I didn’t know that Ruddock’s lawn was poisoned!

  43. Darren Laver @ 85

    If only Labor had 94 odd seats, then they could just call an early election, win it because the swing is too large for the opposition to overcome in one go, then claim it was Australia emphatically saying yes to the tax, regardless of what the popular vote was…

    Love it, Pebbles!

    Such an assertion is nonsense.

    The govt in NSW has a solid majority. Will it influence the result of the election later this month? Of course not, they are going to be thrashed and everyone knows it.

    It is the opinion of the voting public at the time of an election that determines the result, not their opinion at the time of the previous election.

  44. [I made this suggestion to Getup when the whole people’s revolt garbage started.
    My input to Getup was this.
    Getup have spent a lot of time on whacking the government on their failure to act on CC. Now the PM makes a stand on the issue & where are you?
    It’s time to rally the troops & have a pro-carbon rally.]

    Good on you, Dee.

    I withdrew my membership from GetUp! after their support for Wikileaks and its bashing of the government – that was the last straw.

    This issue will be a good test for them.

  48. [If only Labor had 94 odd seats, then they could just call an early election, win it because the swing is too large for the opposition to overcome in one go, then claim it was Australia emphatically saying yes to the tax, regardless of what the popular vote was…]

    If Labor had 94 odd seats it wouldn’t have to negotiate with the independents to pass the Carbon Tax in the HoR. It would need to negotiate with the Greens for it it to pass the Senate after 1 July. It wouldn’t need to go for an early election. Moreover, it wouldn’t want to to allow time for the tax to bedded down and become part of the scenery.

Comments Page 2 of 59
1 2 3 … 59

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *