Antony Green blogs on three developments in electoral and parliamentary reform so I don’t have to. To cut some long stories short:
• An all-party agreement to revert the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly to 35 members, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998, has fallen through after Opposition Leader Will Hodgman withdrew support in a riposte to government budget cuts.
• After flirting with a self-interested reversion to compulsory preferential voting, which was ditched in favour of the superior optional preferential model in 1992, the Queensland government has confirmed no such change will occur before the next election.
• The Australian Electoral Commission’s submission to the parliamentary inquiry into last year’s election has called for the federal parliament to follow the lead of New South Wales and Queensland in allowing enrolment to be updated automatically using data available from schools, utilities and such, thereby relieving voters of the bureaucratic annoyance that is currently required of them in discharge of their legal obligation. Antony Green also reports “rumours the Federal government plans to legislate on the matter”. Given the standard of discourse from some elements of the media in recent times, this could get interesting.
On a related note, British voters go to the polls on May 5 to decide whether to replace their archaic first-part-the-post electoral system with the manifestly superior “alternative vote”, or optional preferential voting as we know it in Australia. Antony Green has been working overtime lately responding to the avalanche of tosh being disseminated by the “no” campaign in its efforts to deceive the voters into making the wrong decision.
With no Morgan poll this week, here are some reports on Coalition internal polling which you can believe or not believe according to taste.
• The Australian reports a poll conducted for the Nationals in the wake of the carbon tax announcement had 40 per cent of voters in Lyne taking a favourable view of Rob Oakeshott, against 52 per cent unfavourable. This is said to compare with a poll conducted before the 2008 by-election that brought him to federal parliament which had his approval rating at 71 per cent and disapproval at just 8 per cent.
• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports a Coalition poll conducted for the NSW election shows 62 per cent “firmly against” the government’s carbon tax proposal, with only 18 per cent in favour.
UPDATE (7/3/11): The first Essential Research poll taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent. Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.
Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.
[Had a sudden nasty thought. I do hope the USA tea-baggers don’t have demos against her while Julia is over there.]
Don’t worry the USA tea-baggers wont know who she is or why she is there or what her political views are!
This sort of event is purely for a domestic (Australian) audience and I am sure she will do well.
Scarpat there are some interesting figures on women winning seats in the Irish election thread.
Darren Laver @ 97
I meant no offence and the idea was coming from Pebbles, not you. I was simply pointing out the fallacy of such thinking.
Pebbles @ 95
The same applies for any election. You get the votes, you win the election. The result is independent of any previous result.
It is like tossing coins. If heads came up last time it has no influence on what will come up next despite widespread belief to the contrary. The events are independent.
The only way in which it has any validity is that if a party has a big win then they obviously have a high level of support which may take time to erode sufficiently to lose next time. That is best measured by scientific polls.
[This sort of event is purely for a domestic (Australian) audience and I am sure she will do well.]
Wanna bet the right (many of whom won’t even see it) will claim she embarrassed the nation, like they say every time she is abroad? The craftier ones may even edit the footage to make her look like an idiot and juxtapose that with footage of Howard looking like a statesman.
Pebbles @ 100
Your humour is too subtle for some here including me… 😆
TSOP…Julia is not going anywhere, dream on….
[POLLYTICS | 17 minutes ago
Having a media industry in Oz dominated by a handful of players – do that here and it’s a suicide note for working in 1/2 the industry
POLLYTICS | 22 minutes ago
When a journo takes an overdue ethical stand against their employer, is it news because its rare?]
http://bit.ly/f7tcnb
[This question needs to be forwarded to the Labor Party, the government, and the media.]
Cuppa – will do but, for the Bludgers who can tweet, here’s the National Times
http://twitter.com/NationalTimesAU
no harm in asking the question re Bernardi’s ‘study trip’. Hartcher’s piece is a must read and it must make Turnbull feel ill when he reads how Bernardi did him in.
Darren,
[I withdrew my membership from GetUp! after their support for Wikileaks and its bashing of the government – that was the last straw.]
Fortunately GetUp! offers the option of choosing which campaigns to support and which to not support. I wouldn’t be inclined to support a campaign on Wikileaks but would strongly an anti-Polluters Revolt.
TSOP
Why make the announcement now without the details?
Isn’t this politics 101? – you leak the bad news and let your opponents go ballistic over it. Then you release the details which aren’t nearly as bad as the opposition has claimed. Your opponents then 1. look like extremists and 2. are locked into the rhetoric they have already used. In the meantime the public accept the idea.
Results: policy gets up and opposition is wedged
Works every time before the budget
[FFS! It was a joke about the Howard cult claiming that 1998 was a referendum on the GST. ]
Exactly – I thought Pebbles had is tongue firmly planted in his cheek….
[Scarpat there are some interesting figures on women winning seats in the Irish election thread.]
Steve, you may have intended this comment for someone else (?)
[Exactly – I thought Pebbles had is tongue firmly planted in his cheek….]
The blogging universe has great need of a tongue-in-cheek emoticon.
But not the one where the tongue seems to be moving in and out and there is a hand in front of the mouth
BH @ 108
[Darren Laver
@darrenlaver Darren Laver
@NationalTimesAU please explain why #Bernardi is having trips to the US to learn extremist political campaigning from the US far right
15 seconds ago via web Favorite Reply Delete ]
Dee
I have checked out the Get Up website, but there is nothing about these supposed counter rallies by organised as suggested by Hartcher.
[Fortunately GetUp! offers the option of choosing which campaigns to support and which to not support. I wouldn’t be inclined to support a campaign on Wikileaks but would strongly an anti-Polluters Revolt.]
Good to know, Cuppa.
It will be good to see GetUp! do more to prevent an Abbott Government rather than bring down a Labor one.
[MrDenmore Mr Denmore
Would an Aussie journo do this? UK Daily Star reporter quits, accusing paper of anti-Islam crusade (h/t @Colvinius) http://tiny.cc/ej52a ]
Sadly our journalists are so debased, so unethical that none would take a similar stand.
Same for the Liberal Party – what have they done to prevent the racists taking over their party? Two parts of p*ss all.
Just Tweeted a link to Matt Franklin.
He thinks I hate him, but I just want to see him get better.
[Just Tweeted a link to Matt Franklin.
He thinks I hate him, but I just want to see him get better.]
Give him a hug and a mancuddle
😉
victoria – you find some good stuff. Just read the link from Poss’ tweets – an absolute must read and I salute the bloke. I just hope he has enough of the readies in his piggy bank to keep him fed. In Oz we can substitute one of our own noospaper proprietors.
[You own the Daily Star, and it’s your right to assign whatever news values to it you choose. On the awe-inspiring day millions took to the streets of Egypt to demand freedom, your paper splashed on “Jordan … the movie.”
A snub to history? Certainly. An affront to journalism? Most definitely. Your undeniable right? Yes, sir.
But what brings me here today is those times you dispense with those skewed news values entirely by printing stories which couldn’t stand up to a gnat’s fart.
It’s those times when you morph from being a newspaper owner into the inventor of a handy product for lining rabbit hutches. While the Daily Star isn’t the only paper with a case to answer, I reckon it’s certainly the ugliest duckling of an unsightly flock.]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/mar/04/daily-star-reporter-letter-full
bb@19
I don’t know why your are mistrustful of internal polls. I just did one. Here are the results:
(1) 100% of those polled supported putting a price on carbon as a useful initiative step to developing and implementing an ETS.
(2) 100% of those polled supported compensating the deserving poor, working families and Gillard’s battles to help offset any COL impacts.
(3) 100% of those polled agreed that Abbott had continually switched positions on climate change. In a follow-up question, of those, only 0% were sure what his current position was.
(4) 100% agreed that the MSM was not doing an adequate job of promoting considered policy debate on the issue of AGW science and AGW responses.
(5) 100% agreed that the MSM was driven by agendas of vested interests rather than the national interest.
(6) 100% believed that the current government should be allowed to run its full course.
(7) 100% believed that shockjocks are making a negative contribution to Australian democracy.
(8) 100% believed that the Opposition is making a negative contribution to Australian democracy.
As usual with internal polls, I will not be divulging: the questions, the sample size, the profile of the sample or the geographical area from which the sample was was derived. I am prepared to state, (on the basis of having studied post grad social science methodolgy and statistics, several thousand bottles of wine ago) that the research frame is both valid and reliable. The confidence limits are extremely comforting. I have made this internal polling available to Mr D. Shanahan and I confidently predict the following headline in ‘The Australian’ as a result of this polling:
‘ABBOTT STUFFED’
[darrenlaver Darren Laver
@franklinmatthew take a stand and resign from your racist anti-democratic paper – bring back ethics to journalism! #auspol]
I was less subtle, Bushfire.
Next time the RAbbott goes to the US the Teabaggers should be informed that he’s the leader of the Liberal Party. Those guys have no time whatsoever for liberals.
[lagcamion @MrDenmore Maybe.& maybe some of 2GB/3AW/2UE’s advertisers will threaten to pull the plug if vitriol continues.(Pigs flying over yonder?) ]
a valid and proabably effective method would something along these lines
[@lagcamion encourage your mates etc to ring the advertisers and tell em you wont buy their products or nor will your friends ]
I’ve been accused of unsubtlety myself 🙂
I find it intriguing that these journos wtrite off death threats and abusive phone calls as part of the game of politics, but when someone calls them on their own rubbish in a “less subtle” form of words, they suddenly get all hurt and noble.
You write to their blogs and they won’t publish your point of view.
You complain to their governance and ethics committees and they self-absolve themselves, every time (especially in the case of the ABC).
A very precious bunch.
We got a good result last week. Overington became “Overallthis” and retired from Twitter. There should be more to come.
Thanks Darren re the tweet.
OC – this week Abbott has claimed victory for getting extra money for the War Memorial. Hockey claimed victory on the banking issue.
If the carbon tax comes out at less than $45 per tonne then Abbott will claim victory for it being lower.
As Oakes says, the bloke is predictable.
Darren Laver,
Bravo. How about sending one to Bolta?
[lagcamion @MrDenmore 2UE & 3AW Business Directory is http://bit.ly/euzQ2G . 2GB’s Advertisers Directory is http://bit.ly/gsmhQ2 #SLAGGS #wiserheads ]
for those who wish to know
[I’ve been accused of unsubtlety myself 🙂
I find it intriguing that these journos wtrite off death threats and abusive phone calls as part of the game of politics, but when someone calls them on their own rubbish in a “less subtle” form of words, they suddenly get all hurt and noble.
You write to their blogs and they won’t publish your point of view.
You complain to their governance and ethics committees and they self-absolve themselves, every time (especially in the case of the ABC).
A very precious bunch.
We got a good result last week. Overington became “Overallthis” and retired from Twitter. There should be more to come.]
Yep, excellent work BB this week.
Their partisanship is one thing, but its their double standards that I take exception to the most. So I am going to continue to provide them with less than subtle feedback on their efforts.
They get paid to write lies and hurl abuse at Labor politicians – let’s see if they can take even a small amount of their own medicine.
Cuppa#124
that is a good one. They do hate the Liberals in the good ol USA!!
cuppa @ 124
What a good idea!
Somehow I’ve missed the point about Bernardi’s “study trip” Can any one help?
BB
So true. These oz journos are so precious. They can’t even handle constructive criticism.
Precious petals the lot of them.
Whilst the PM is overseas, what tricks are the Libs going to get up to.
How does the saying go “whilst the cat is away, the mice will play?” 🙂
[Darren Laver,
Bravo. How about sending one to Bolta?]
But Bolt is a racist and against democracy, so he is in perfect alignment with his paper and its owner!
🙂
[You may have heard the phrase, “The flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil sets off a tornado in Texas.” Well, try this: “The lies of a newspaper in London can get a bloke’s head caved in down an alley in Bradford.”
If you can’t see that words matter, you should go back to running porn magazines. But if you do, yet still allow your editors to use inciteful over insightful language, then far from standing up for Britain, you’re a menace against all things that make it great.
I may have been just a lowly hack in your business empire, void of the power to make you change your ways, but there is still one thing that I can do; that I was trained to do; that I love to do: write about it.]
I hope Richard Peppiatt’s journo mates stand up for him. He’s a hero in my eyes.
“the lies of a newspaper in London can get a bloke’s head caved in down an alley in Bradford.”
Can anyone remember if a stand like this has been made to this extent before. Now it can be sent around the net so fast it may start a change… or am I dreaming as usual!
“
Victoria,
[How does the saying go “whilst the cat is away, the mice will play?”]
Shouldn’t that be the rodents? 😉
Good morning victoria.
How did your daughter enjoy her first week at university?
lizzie:
Bernardi has reportedly gone to the US to learn about rightwing political activism. The question is did he pay his own way, or did we pay for him to go?
BH
Many are not happy with the increased power and influence of our Rupert.
It may be a pipe dream, but we can only hope that there is pushback.
True BH – but that can only be claimed so far – the counter claim is that he did not want a price at all
A typical example of Libs’ distortion of the truth where money and climate are concerned. Yet they accuse Labor of untrustworthiness. This was the same ‘auditors’ trick they pulled before the election. They are very smart at editing to prove their point, as they have done with Julia’s comments.
[We have estimated that it will cost $3.2 billion over four years … Our policy has been independently costed. A team of economists at the respected firm Frontier Economics says our policy is both economically and environmentally responsible.”
Actually, according to Danny Price, managing director of Frontier Economics, that’s not at all what his firm had said. ”I had to ring them up and tell them not to say I supported it. All I’d said was that their numbers added up, I didn’t say I supported it,” Price explains.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/so-much-hot-air-and-its-not-all-the-climates-fault-20110304-1bhrl.html
confessions
thanks for asking. She has enjoyed her first week. Although she is quite tired. She currently has a full week of contact hours. Not sure if any adjustments can be made to her timetable in future, but she seems to have more hours than the average student.
She is extremely pleased to have chosen this uni. It has met her expectations.
Cuppa
Of course, Rodents!!
The full on assault by ‘The Australian’ on the Government continues today. General memes:
(1) Bob Brown lives inside Julia Gillard’s brain and is really the Prime Minister. This is a problem than can only be fixed by an election. Now. Or, maybe, if Labor behaves exactly like the Coalition.
(2) It’s all a mess. All of it. Every single bit of it. People are angry. Very angry. Justifiably angry. Therefore, there needs to be an election. Now.
(3) Labor has internal tensions. This can only be fixed if Labor behaves in office more like the Coaltion.
(4) The East Timore Regional Processing Centre won’t happen. This can be fixed either by an early election, or by Labor behaving in office exactly like the Coalition.
confessions
The liberals should pay for his trip. Without question.
I thought study trips by pollies were supposed to give them information/knowledge to do a better job in parliament, not destroy the bloody country.
(When I swear it means I’m roooly angry!)
victoria:
Good to hear she’s happy. I’m sure she’ll adjust in time, given she seems to have family support behind her.
Boerwar
People are so angry that they are huddled up in their homes in a foetal position!!
Lizzie,
[A typical example of Libs’ distortion of the truth where money and climate are concerned. Yet they accuse Labor of untrustworthiness.]
They’re always accusing others of doing what they do themselves. Right wing projection -the tendency of right wingers to project their own behaviour/faults onto others.
If there’s one thing – beyond distortion of the truth – that defines the right, it’s this tendency to project.
Boerwar
Has anyone asked Abbott what he would be doing if he were in exactly the same position as Gillard? And I mean exactly. We know he couldn’t be, but the Oz should think about it more. They seem to think that if Abbott had won it would have been with a massive majority, but it wouldn’t.
confessions
she is definitely not lacking support that is for sure!
speaking of which, I am now off to take youngest daughter to a music festival in the City.
This is after, I got no sleep at all waiting for eldest son to return from an evening round trip to Shepparton to watch Hawthorn footy club play a practice game. He managed to get home at 4.00 in the morning, and head off to work at 6.00 am. Grrrrr!!!
Why is parenting so hard!
No rest for the wicked I say.
Catch you all later bludgers