Galaxy: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Galaxy poll for New South Wales has the Coalition on 50 per cent of the primary vote, down a point on the previous poll, with Labor up three to 23 per cent and the Greens steady on 14 per cent. This translates into 64-36 on two-party preferred, which compares with 62-38 from Newspoll, 61-39 from Essential Research (as adjusted by Antony Green) and 66-34 from Nielsen and the previous Galaxy. Contrary to expectations that Labor’s numbers might represent their irreducible bedrock of support, no less than 41 per cent of Labor voters say there is a chance they will change their vote before election day, compared with only 24 per cent of Coalition supporters.

The poll is of interest in being the first test of public opinion on the carbon tax, respondents having been asked if “Kristina Keneally is correct to take the long term view on the carbon tax issue or does it show that she is out of touch with the needs of the people of New South Wales”. The result had 37 per cent opting for “correct” and 55 per cent “out of touch”. If you were of a mind, I suppose you could spin this as saying supporting the carbon tax is about the most popular thing the government is doing right now: further questions find the Coalition rated better to handle every policy area (roads, water, public transport, health, education, law and order, helping families and the sale of electricity assets) by margins of between 14 per cent and 38 per cent.

Also: 47 per cent say they will just vote one, while 51 per cent say they will allocate preferences; Barry O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-54 to 34-50; and there are another three questions you can find out about the link, the basic thrust of which is that the government is unpopular.

It seems the current parliament officially expired overnight – this is good timing, because this site’s previously slow work rate on the New South Wales is about to pick up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

173 comments on “Galaxy: 64-36 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. [The irony is that the person who has the most influence in the NSW Liberal
    Party is a person by the name of Hon David John Clarke MLC – he is Co-
    operator of the Opus Dei Prelature in Sydney]

    What’s ironic about that? Who new Alanis Morissette was so popular amongst the adult nappy wearing set?

    That’s very compelling evidence Toorak Toff: Some boring as batshit old Labor hack in South bloody Australia, who by the content of his Catholics under the bed speech doesn’t appear to have had an original thought in decades, if ever, and who, like Toorak Toff, can’t name a second person in the parliamentary Liberal Party who has a connection to Opus Dei, claims that this solitary member of the upper house holds some unnamed/unexplained influence over the non-Opus Dei and non-Catholic members, and this influence is greater than that of the party leader.

    Here’s a picture of Labor minister, Tony Kelly, opening an exhibition, at Parliament House, dedicated to Opus Dei founder, Josemaría Escrivá . . .

    Should we burn Tony Kelly at the stake too?

  2. Irony is a much-abused word.

    I know nothing of Opus Dei, other than what I’ve read in ‘The Da Vinci Code’ and in Gary Lockwood’s speech. Gary seems to believe that Joe De Bruyn is a member of Opus Dei and is influential with Don Farrell, who in turn is close to Jack Snelling, Tom Kenyon and Bernard Finnigan (who could be a member). Nothing really new about all that, but it is the stuff of conspiracy.

  3. I am a catholic and find opus dei questionable? It is quite extreme & rather secretive.
    I don’t need to worry though I wouldn’t be invited to join.
    David Clarke should be criticised for his political positions….. extreme right Liberal party
    not his religion

  4. Mick

    My aunt-in-law is a nun and she says exactly the same thing about Opus Dei. She has a very highly placed relative in the Church who agrees with her.

    They don’t seem to know much about Opus Dei though. They say they are very hard-line but they don’t know what they actually stand for or what their goals are.

  5. I am an ex-Catholic and have two school friends who became priests. All I know who know them agree that Opus Dei is the absolute hard right lunatic fringe within the catholic church. They are not hypocrites, but they are genuinely nuts. They are like a roman catholic version of the Tea Party. It is not only secretive and ruthless, they have a stated agenda to return catholicism to its old style pre-vatican II medieval nature. It was started in Spain by Escriva, a priest who was a confident of General Franco. Read Antony Beevoir’s book on the Spanish civil war if you want to know what that means.

    Also, Opus Dei advocates a catholicism that is politically active and interventionist. No separation of church and state for these guys. You can see their style in Tony Abbott, and his belief that he may impose his beliefs on the rest of us if he gains power. These people are dangerous to democracy.

    If David Clarke is high up in Opus Dei in Australia, that may be one of the few good reasons to vote Labor in NSW.

  6. Mick Quinlivan @ 104

    [It is quite extreme & rather secretive.]

    Holding an exhibition in Parliament House doesn’t sound very secretive.

    And the “person who has the most influence” is number four on the Legislative Council ticket – no doubt a cunning Palpatine-like ruse to cloak his true power.

  7. Socrates @ 106

    [It is not only secretive and ruthless, they have a stated agenda to return catholicism to its old style pre-vatican II medieval nature.]

    So which one is it: are they secretive or do they have a stated agenda?

    Try and get your Jack Chick-style conspiracies straight.

  8. @107 I stand by my comment. The assessment of Opus Dei stands outside David Clarke’s role in it. A public exhibition does not mean an organisation is not secretive.
    That is the part that organisation chose to show

  9. LOL

    The ALP supporters are reduced to clutching at straws to try to lift their primary of 20% snd really making things up and hoping it might stick.

    Yeah in every major party, there are some people like David Clarke, who might actually be quite objectionable to the public, some of those in the ALP are Tripoli, Obeid, Ferrell, Arbib, Ferguson

    So what will be the next set of straws you are about to go for, some mad men phophercy that the world will end if the ALP will lose

    Please come back to the real world

  10. imagine it is 27/3/11 the anti-labor parties have just been elected… The first thing they do is announce the cupboard is bare……. cannot afford the limited promises made….need to cut back massively ….. maybe appoint Nick Greiner to assist . Of course there are protests but it is too late. The greens have 5 seats but no influence…….. ” maybe We should have preferenced Labor “…….. a sad sad story

  11. Dovif,

    “THe dreadful Greiner/Fahey year

    Where we paid for the Olympics, did major rail constructions, plan major construction of olympic site, balance the budget

    yeah those dreadful years of the last competant NSW government”

    1) Who is “we”? Are the Libs taking complete credit for something that happened five years after they were booted out? By the way, these same Olympics have been an anchor on NSW ever since. But apparently not in your oranged-skied world.
    2) Which major rail construction? If you are talking about the airport ghost train, please go to the back of the class. It has been a total failure.
    3) I worked for a major multi-national at the time that was considering a major downsize in NSW. The heavies came out from the UK and met with then Premier Fahey and some of his ministers. After less than an hour, they couldn’t help noticing that Fahey was asleep in the meeting. The downsizing went ahead.
    4) In sixteen years, how many deficits/surpluses has Labor delivered? I don’t know but you seem to. Please supply that number and if you’re good enough, be a nice chap and give us a cumulative total (pointless as that would be). Otherwise, just zip it because you don’t know what you are talking about.
    5) All things considered, it is time for the ALP to have a breather.

    Frankie V,
    No voices in my head. The voice was out of Scott Morrison’s mouth and it was all racist. Take your blinkers off.

  12. Much as I dislike Clarke and his ilk in the Liberals, I would still readily agree that there is just as bad or worse in NSW State Labor, and yes Dovif, I agree they still need to go. Even Mike Carlton had this to say yesterday:
    [All that is left is for state Labor to tie up a few loose ends for its property tycoon mates. This week’s furtive trampling of the planning laws to allow the Barangaroo developer, Lend Lease, to build a car park on polluted waterfront land was a disgrace. But typical of this rotten mob.]
    Typical indeed. Sydney will be paying for years to fix the consequences of the many corrupt planning decisions made by NSW State Labor.

  13. Roy Orbison

    Do you live in Sydney or know anything about construction

    If u live in Sydney, you would know that the Olympic stadium and a lot of the stadium was build and completes in 1996. that means the planning and construction was being done way before the 1995 election.

    Likewise most of the factilities and work done on the olympic villege, which was a swamp, the work was planned prior to the ALP government

    The fact that it was opened by the ALP government does not mean they did much work on it

  14. blackburnpseph
    Posted Friday, March 4, 2011 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    Liyana @ 44

    If you believe the parliament should be abolished..can you please share with us all what sort of governmental system we should have?

    Sorry I dont know how to do quotes… The current state of NSW politics makes me think that state parliaments should be abolished….

    I’m sure somebody much wiser than myself could come up with an acceptable more accountable alternative.

  15. I’ll be a little more optimistic, from the point of view of a Labor supporter, and predict that Keneally does well enough over the next few weeks that the ALP retains 25 seats after March 26. I just can’t believe that the Liberals can win places like Blacktown, Granville, Liverpool, Wollongong, Illawarra etc.

  16. @118……. most seats Greens will exhaust
    most seats Libs will be exhausting too… they gain from opv
    I suspect Labor will extend their preferences where it may matter….. eg DUbbo
    Hi Think How to Vote cards need to be registered with the electoral commission

  17. Evan14 – Again i refer to the list of 31 seats that according to Antony Green would always have been held by the ALP at every State & Federal election from 1991 to 2010 and if we take the OPV into consideration.

    In my view there are about 4-8 seats that the ALP might lose for the first time in that twenty year period and i think Granville might be one of them.

    When you take the 1996 and 2004 federal election results into account it becomes difficult to see how the ALP will go lower than 25 seats.

  18. At best the Greens could win two but that would be at best

    Belmain and Marrickville

    The interesting thing will be how will the Liberal vote perform for as we saw in Victoria the inner city seats saw solid improvements in the Liberal vote. in Melbourne it was somethign like 4-5% and in Richmond it was about 2% then there was the Liberals coming clear first in Albert Park

  19. Bluepill and Mexican

    Besides Balmain and Marrickville, I can see the Greens winning Blue Mountains. However, I would not rule out the Libs coming through the pack and winning Balmain (as bizarre a thought as could be).

    Blue Pill

    You include no independents above – can’t see any way Richard Torbay can lose Northern Tablelands (though he deserves to being an ex ALP member and being part of the ALP parlour games in accepting the speakership). Dubbo, Tamworth and Port Macquarie are in play. Also can’t see how the current indy could lose Lake Macquarie. And Newcastle is most likely to fall to an independant. Do you see Clover Moore losing to a Green? So how do you get 4 Greens.

  20. Mick

    [I suspect Labor will extend their preferences where it may matter….. eg DUbbo]

    Any talk of Labor preferencing the Libs?

  21. Coogee might also be a Greens win if:

    – the Lib vote doesn’t get high enough
    – the ALP collapse into a clear third

  22. @122 the Greens have a high vote in Coogee and the Blue Mts
    but even if they polled second & got ALP preferences they probably would still fail to win
    could the Lib’s lose Clover Moore her seat if they polled well in the inner city?

  23. A few weeks back I saw reports that the ALP in Balmain were going to preference the Greens. I don’t know if that has come to pass.

  24. I Think OPV needs to be looked at again for NSW. Maybe have full preferential but
    a savings provision where a voters intention can be determined?

  25. Mick @ 126

    I am not sure the Libs can get enough votes in the Blue Mountains to win. They would need to build up a big plurality in the lower Blue Mountains commuter belt as the upper Blue Mountains – Katoomba, Leura, Blackheath – wouldmost likely vote Green heavily and the Libs do not poll well there.

  26. Scrapping OPV seems to be the ALP recourse at present – after all if there had been OPV – they would have lost the federal election and they would have lost in Victoria by a much wider margin. Anna Bligh considered dropping it in Qld but that would have been too cynical. Full prefs suited the Libs when the DLP were around, and suit the ALP now.

  27. @127 …….. It would be difficult in the lower house for Labor voters to preference the
    Greens even if the ALP organisation recommended this.
    @125 the libs in such a situation would be close to a majority and there would be a lot
    of exhausted votes.

  28. OPV suits the Greens in the NSW election as they don’t have the unpalatable task of having to direct prefs to either major party. If they did have to direct prefs – the Libs could tar them with the ALP brush, and the ALP could accuse them of selling out.

  29. We .need input from Antony Green on what is the threshold on first prefs for the Libs to win in a Coogee or Blue Mountains situation (assuming Greens 2 ALP 3) – would it be 40%, or 45%?

  30. @129…. I hope you are correct in 1988 the Libs won the Blue mountains.
    but I suspect my answer in 131 would apply

  31. Mick @ 134

    In the fed election (not always the best guide especially in this case) the ALP 2pp in the upper Blue Mountains was over 70% if I recall. Very low Lib primary votes.

  32. @133 I don’t think even He would know given these circs. I suspect there will be a few seats where the ALP /Green vote will exceed 53 to 55% but still a Liberal Mp will be elected

  33. Coogee – From memory Antony said and i am paraphasing that if the Liberals acheived their 2010 federal election primary and with the OPV it would most likely go to the Liberals.

    Balmain going Liberal is not as strange as it looks for if we are expecting the Liberals to win Drummoyne then it is possible that Balmain could just follow

  34. @137 & @138…. The Liberal vote in Coogee would I think be less than their federal vote
    Balmain should not be won by the liberals…. but if it was then the Greens would be to

  35. Mexican @ 137

    Despite being next to each other Balmain and Drummoyne are very different socially so what holds for one does not necessarily hold for the other.

  36. Mexican

    Without actaully checking a map, I suspect only the north part of Coogee is in Wentworth. The souther part would be in Kingsford Smith.

  37. Mick @ 139

    Dubbo is held very narrowly by an independent. ALP prefs would help Dawn Fardell hold on. Tamworth and Port Macquarie are very similar.

  38. Quoting Antony’s blog in the 1988 election the seats there were three seats that the Liberals missed were Coogee (Waverley) Kogarah and Dummoyne

    True most of Coogee is in Kingsford Smith (should have checked the map before posting)

  39. Dovif,
    “If u live in Sydney, you would know that the Olympic stadium and a lot of the stadium was build and completes in 1996. that means the planning and construction was being done way before the 1995 election.”

    Stop lying. The first big event in the main stadium was the 1999 NRL Grand Final,although there may have been a Wallabies-All Blacks match a few months earlier. I was at the main stadium site the day Princess Di was killed in 1997 and it was barely out of the ground. The extended grandstand for the swimming stadium was not completed until a few months into 2000. The vast majority of sites came on line between 1997 and 2000.
    The games themselves were not awarded until the second half of 1993 and the Libs were kicked out in March 1995. Yes, they started the planning process and did a pretty good job of it in the eighteen months or so when they had a say. They were then basically sidelined for over five and a half years.
    All you need to do is to accept the proven facts and stop re-writing history – history that is easily proved one way or the other by a little thing called facts. I notice you didn’t care to nominate the rail projects completed by the Libs (excepting the airport line disaster). For you to do that would have meant making up a bit more history.
    Also still waiting for you to show how many deficits versus surpluses there have been in the life of this government. I would say you are either too lazy or too embarrassed. However, I will spell it out for you:
    1996 – deficit (first full budget)
    1997 – surplus
    1998 – surplus
    1999 – surplus
    2000 – surplus
    2001 – surplus
    2002 – surplus
    2003 – surplus
    2004 – surplus
    2005 – surplus
    2006 – surplus
    2007 – deficit
    2008 – deficit
    2009 – surplus
    2010 – surpuls
    2011 – projected surplus
    2012 – projected surplus
    2013 – projected surplus
    See? It’s just not that hard. While there have been a fair few idiots in this government, the basic performance has been pretty good. But then again, it’s just as easy to take ones instructions from Uncle Alan and either lie or make it up, as you have done constantly.

  40. Roy@145

    The running of all those surplusses is one of the reasons NSW infrastructure is in a such a parlous state now. Under Michael Egan, the government was extremely parsimonious and not enough money was spent on new or maintaining existing infrastructure. Aside from delivering a successful Olympics, there is precious little to show for 16 years of Labor government.

  41. Roy Orbison

    Please read this

    Plans for the olympic stadium was drawn up in 1992, funding was already allocated at the time of the bid (ie to cost between 1.7 and 2.4 billion and private investor found by that time

    The entity to oversea the construction for the olympic was set up in 1994 ie a month after the winning of the bid.

    While the government need to continue to monitor the building of the stadium, there are very little for the government to do after the planning stage and the ALP had very little to do with the planning stage, which was done prior to the bid of the olympics

    funds were allocated

  42. Roy

    It is pretty easy to have a surplus, when the government had done almost no infrastructure in 15 years. The problem is the roads to the NW are congested. We have fewer trains running now than 15 years ago, dispite there being an extra million people in Sydney.

    Most hospital were reporting the nurses has to buy their own supplies. Having surpluses means nothing in this environment

  43. @148 will the libs spend big on infrastructure…. mending back to 1988 and the Greiner govts cuts…………..

  44. And one should add, Roy — what business has the NSW Govt (or any state govt) in building elite sports facilities anyway?

    How is providing resources for an activity tailor made for the private sector to do on its own any business of the state?

    Now if some community lacks a local swimming pool or sports field for local use, that’s another matter, but shouldn’t elite sports be paid for by elite people?

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